A week-end off: the first extensive number-theoretical computation on the ENIAC

The first extensive number-theoretical computation run on the ENIAC, is reconstructed. The problem, computing the exponent of 2 modulo a prime, was set up on the ENIAC during a week-end in July 1946 by the number-theorist D.H. Lehmer, with help from his wife Emma and John Mauchly. Important aspects of the ENIAC's design are presented-and the reconstruction of the implementation of the problem on the ENIAC is discussed in its salient points

Multi-century tree-ring based reconstruction of the Neuquén River streamflow, northern Patagonia, Argentina

In most cases, gauged river flow records in southern South America extend for only a few decades, hampering the detection of long-term, decadal to centennial-scale cycles and trends. Long streamflow series can be reconstructed from tree-ring records, offering the opportunity of extending the limited hydrological instrumental data to several centuries. In northern Patagonia, Argentina, the Neuquén River has great importance for local and national socio-economic activities such as hydroelectric power generation, agriculture and tourism. In this study, new and updated tree-ring chronologies from Araucaria araucana and Austrocedrus chilensis are used to reconstruct the October-June mean streamflow for the Neuquén River and place the period of gauged flows (1903-2009), in a long-term, multi-century context. The reconstruction covers the period 1346-2000 AD and was developed from a network of 43 tree-ring chronologies, grouped in composite series, using a nested principal component regression approach. Analyses of the frequency, intensity, and duration of droughts and pluvial events indicate that the 20th century contains some of the driest and wettest annual to decadal-scale events in the last 654 yr, but longer and more severe events were recorded in previous centuries. Blackman-Tukey and singular spectral analyses identified quasiperiodic oscillations from 3.5 to 17.5 yr. A dominant 6.8-yr cycle explains ca. 23.6% of the total variance in the Neuquén River streamflow reconstruction. Correlation analyses showed that discharges of the Neuquén River are related to variations in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), a measure of air mass exchanges between middle and high latitudes in the Southern Hemisphere. This association is consistent with previous studies that indicate a strong correlation between rainfall in northern Patagonia and SAM variations.Facultad de Ciencias Agrarias y Forestale

Multiproxy summer and winter surface air temperature field reconstructions for southern South America covering the past centuries

We statistically reconstruct austral summer (winter) surface air temperature fields back to ad 900 (1706) using 22 (20) annually resolved predictors from natural and human archives from southern South America (SSA). This represents the first regional-scale climate field reconstruction for parts of the Southern Hemisphere at this high temporal resolution. We apply three different reconstruction techniques: multivariate principal component regression, composite plus scaling, and regularized expectation maximization. There is generally good agreement between the results of the three methods on interannual and decadal timescales. The field reconstructions allow us to describe differences and similarities in the temperature evolution of different sub-regions of SSA. The reconstructed SSA mean summer temperatures between 900 and 1350 are mostly above the 1901-1995 climatology. After 1350, we reconstruct a sharp transition to colder conditions, which last until approximately 1700. The summers in the eighteenth century are relatively warm with a subsequent cold relapse peaking around 1850. In the twentieth century, summer temperatures reach conditions similar to earlier warm periods. The winter temperatures in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries were mostly below the twentieth century average. The uncertainties of our reconstructions are generally largest in the eastern lowlands of SSA, where the coverage with proxy data is poorest. Verifications with independent summer temperature proxies and instrumental measurements suggest that the interannual and multi-decadal variations of SSA temperatures are well captured by our reconstructions. This new dataset can be used for data/model comparison and data assimilation as well as for detection and attribution studies at sub-continental scale

What works to meet the sexual and reproductive health needs of women living with HIV/AIDS

It is critical to include a sexual and reproductive health lens in HIV programming as most HIV transmission occurs through sexual intercourse. As global attention is focusing on the sexual and reproductive health needs of women living with HIV, identifying which interventions work becomes vitally important. What evidence exists to support sexual and reproductive health programming related to HIV programmes

Multi-century tree-ring based reconstruction of the Neuquén River streamflow, northern Patagonia, Argentina

In most cases, gauged river flow records in southern South America extend for only a few decades, hampering the detection of long-term, decadal to centennial-scale cycles and trends. Long streamflow series can be reconstructed from tree-ring records, offering the opportunity of extending the limited hydrological instrumental data to several centuries. In northern Patagonia, Argentina, the Neuquén River has great importance for local and national socio-economic activities such as hydroelectric power generation, agriculture and tourism. In this study, new and updated tree-ring chronologies from Araucaria araucana and Austrocedrus chilensis are used to reconstruct the October-June mean streamflow for the Neuquén River and place the period of gauged flows (1903-2009), in a long-term, multi-century context. The reconstruction covers the period 1346-2000 AD and was developed from a network of 43 tree-ring chronologies, grouped in composite series, using a nested principal component regression approach. Analyses of the frequency, intensity, and duration of droughts and pluvial events indicate that the 20th century contains some of the driest and wettest annual to decadal-scale events in the last 654 yr, but longer and more severe events were recorded in previous centuries. Blackman-Tukey and singular spectral analyses identified quasiperiodic oscillations from 3.5 to 17.5 yr. A dominant 6.8-yr cycle explains ca. 23.6% of the total variance in the Neuquén River streamflow reconstruction. Correlation analyses showed that discharges of the Neuquén River are related to variations in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), a measure of air mass exchanges between middle and high latitudes in the Southern Hemisphere. This association is consistent with previous studies that indicate a strong correlation between rainfall in northern Patagonia and SAM variations.Facultad de Ciencias Agrarias y Forestale

Antarctic temperature changes during the last millennium: evaluation of simulations and reconstructions

Temperature changes in Antarctica over the last millennium are investigated using proxy records, a set of simulations driven by natural and anthropogenic forcings and one simulation with data assimilation. Over Antarctica, a long term cooling trend in annual mean is simulated during the period 1000–1850. The main contributor to this cooling trend is the volcanic forcing, astronomical forcing playing a dominant role at seasonal timescale. Since 1850, all the models produce an Antarctic warming in response to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations. We present a composite of Antarctic temperature, calculated by averaging seven temperature records derived from isotope measurements in ice cores. This simple approach is supported by the coherency displayed between model results at these data grid points and Antarctic mean temperature. The composite shows a weak multi-centennial cooling trend during the pre-industrial period and a warming after 1850 that is broadly consistent with model results. In both data and simulations, large regional variations are superimposed on this common signal, at decadal to centennial timescales. The model results appear spatially more consistent than ice core records. We conclude that more records are needed to resolve the complex spatial distribution of Antarctic temperature variations during the last millennium

Possible causes of data model discrepancy in the temperature history of the last Millennium

Model simulations and proxy-based reconstructions are the main tools for quantifying pre-instrumental climate variations. For some metrics such as Northern Hemisphere mean temperatures, there is remarkable agreement between models and reconstructions. For other diagnostics, such as the regional response to volcanic eruptions, or hemispheric temperature differences, substantial disagreements between data and models have been reported. Here, we assess the potential sources of these discrepancies by comparing 1000-year hemispheric temperature reconstructions based on real-world paleoclimate proxies with climate-model-based pseudoproxies. These pseudoproxy experiments (PPE) indicate that noise inherent in proxy records and the unequal spatial distribution of proxy data are the key factors in explaining the data-model differences. For example, lower inter-hemispheric correlations in reconstructions can be fully accounted for by these factors in the PPE. Noise and data sampling also partly explain the reduced amplitude of the response to external forcing in reconstructions compared to models. For other metrics, such as inter-hemispheric differences, some, although reduced, discrepancy remains. Our results suggest that improving proxy data quality and spatial coverage is the key factor to increase the quality of future climate reconstructions, while the total number of proxy records and reconstruction methodology play a smaller role

Technical note: Open-paleo-data implementation pilot - The PAGES 2k special issue

Data stewardship is an essential element of the publication process. Knowing how to enact data polices that are described only in general terms can be difficult, however. Examples are needed to model the implementation of open-data polices in actual studies. Here we explain the procedure used to attain a high and consistent level of data stewardship across a special issue of the journal Climate of the Past. We discuss the challenges related to (1) determining which data are essential for public archival, (2) using data generated by others, and (3) understanding data citations. We anticipate that open-data sharing in paleo sciences will accelerate as the advantages become more evident and as practices that reduce data loss become the accepted convention

Reconstructing El Niño Southern Oscillation using data from ships' logbooks, 1815- 1854. Part I: Methodology and Evaluation

The meteorological information found within ships’ logbooks is a unique and fascinating source of data for historical climatology. This study uses wind observations from logbooks covering the period 1815 to 1854 to reconstruct an index of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) for boreal winter (DJF). Statistically-based reconstructions of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) are obtained using two methods: principal component regression (PCR) and composite-plus-scale (CPS). Calibration and validation are carried out over the modern period 1979–2014, assessing the relationship between re-gridded seasonal ERA-Interim reanalysis wind data and the instrumental SOI. The reconstruction skill of both the PCR and CPS methods is found to be high with reduction of error skill scores of 0.80 and 0.75, respectively. The relationships derived during the fitting period are then applied to the logbook wind data to reconstruct the historical SOI. We develop a new method to assess the sensitivity of the reconstructions to using a limited number of observations per season and find that the CPS method performs better than PCR with a limited number of observations. A difference in the distribution of wind force terms used by British and Dutch ships is found, and its impact on the reconstruction assessed. The logbook reconstructions agree well with a previous SOI reconstructed from Jakarta rain day counts, 1830–1850, adding robustness to our reconstructions. Comparisons to additional documentary and proxy data sources are provided in a companion paper

Lewis Base Mediated β-Elimination and Lewis Acid Mediated Insertion Reactions of Disilazido Zirconium Compounds

The reactivity of a series of disilazido zirconocene complexes is dominated by the migration of anionic groups (hydrogen, alkyl, halide, OTf) between the zirconium and silicon centers. The direction of these migrations is controlled by the addition of two-electron donors (Lewis bases) or two-electron acceptors (Lewis acids). The cationic nonclassical [Cp2ZrN(SiHMe2)2]+ ([2]+) is prepared from Cp2Zr{N(SiHMe2)2}H (1) and B(C6F5)3 or [Ph3C][B(C6F5)4], while reactions of B(C6F5)3 and Cp2Zr{N(SiHMe2)2}R (R = Me (3), Et (5), n-C3H7 (7), CH═CHSiMe3 (9)) provide a mixture of [2]+ and [Cp2ZrN(SiHMe2)(SiRMe2)]+. The latter products are formed through B(C6F5)3 abstraction of a β-H and R group migration from Zr to the β-Si center. Related β-hydrogen abstraction and X group migration reactions are observed for Cp2Zr{N(SiHMe2)2}X (X = OTf (11), Cl (13), OMe (15), O-i-C3H7 (16)). Alternatively, addition of DMAP (DMAP = 4-(dimethylamino)pyridine) to [2]+ results in coordination to a Si center and hydrogen migration to zirconium, giving the cationic complex [Cp2Zr{N(SiHMe2)(SiMe2DMAP)}H]+ ([19]+). Related hydrogen migration occurs from [Cp2ZrN(SiHMe2)(SiMe2OCHMe2)]+ ([18]+) to give [Cp2Zr{N(SiMe2DMAP)(SiMe2OCHMe2)}H]+ ([22]+), whereas X group migration is observed upon addition of DMAP to [Cp2ZrN(SiHMe2)(SiMe2X)]+ (X = OTf ([12]+), Cl ([14]+)) to give [Cp2Zr{N(SiHMe2)(SiMe2DMAP)}X]+ (X = OTf ([26]+), Cl ([20]+)). The species involved in these transformations are described by resonance structures that suggest β-elimination. Notably, such pathways are previously unknown in early metal amide chemistry. Finally, these migrations facilitate direct Si–H addition to carbonyls, which is proposed to occur through a pathway that previously had been reserved for later transition metal compounds