Ulikhet, eksklusjon og borgerkrig [Inequality, Exclusion, and Civil War]

Much of the recent research on civil war treats explanations rooted in political and economic grievances with considerable suspicion and claims that there is little empirical evidence of any relationship between ethnicity or inequality and political violence. We argue that common indicators used in previous research fail to capture fundamental aspects of political exclusion and economic inequality that can motivate conflict. Through a statistical analysis of all civil wars since 1960, we show that our theoretically informed indicators of political discrimination and economic marginalization among ethnic groups are powerful predictors of civil war onset. Individual-based inequality indicators, in contrast, display only weak effects. This article in Norwegian is a revised and updated version of earlier work published in English

Environmental changes and violent conflict

This letter reviews the scientific literature on whether and how environmental changes affect the risk of violent conflict. The available evidence from qualitative case studies indicates that environmental stress can contribute to violent conflict in some specific cases. Results from quantitative large-N studies, however, strongly suggest that we should be careful in drawing general conclusions. Those large-N studies that we regard as the most sophisticated ones obtain results that are not robust to alternative model specifications and, thus, have been debated. This suggests that environmental changes may, under specific circumstances, increase the risk of violent conflict, but not necessarily in a systematic way and unconditionally. Hence there is, to date, no scientific consensus on the impact of environmental changes on violent conflict. This letter also highlights the most important challenges for further research on the subject. One of the key issues is that the effects of environmental changes on violent conflict are likely to be contingent on a set of economic and political conditions that determine adaptation capacity. In the authors' view, the most important indirect effects are likely to lead from environmental changes via economic performance and migration to violent conflict. © 2012 IOP Publishing Ltd

Climate as a risk factor for armed conflict

This is the author accepted manuscriptResearch findings on the relationship between climate and conflict are diverse and contested. Here we assess the current understanding of the relationship between climate and conflict, based on the structured judgments of experts from diverse disciplines. These experts agree that climate has affected organized armed conflict within countries. However, other drivers, such as low socioeconomic development and low capabilities of the state, are judged to be substantially more influential, and the mechanisms of climate–conflict linkages remain a key uncertainty. Intensifying climate change is estimated to increase future risks of conflict.European Research Counci

The roles and values of wild foods in agricultural systems

Almost every ecosystem has been amended so that plants and animals can be used as food, fibre, fodder, medicines, traps and weapons. Historically, wild plants and animals were sole dietary components for hunter–gatherer and forager cultures. Today, they remain key to many agricultural communities. The mean use of wild foods by agricultural and forager communities in 22 countries of Asia and Africa (36 studies) is 90–100 species per location. Aggregate country estimates can reach 300–800 species (e.g. India, Ethiopia, Kenya). The mean use of wild species is 120 per community for indigenous communities in both industrialized and developing countries. Many of these wild foods are actively managed, suggesting there is a false dichotomy around ideas of the agricultural and the wild: hunter–gatherers and foragers farm and manage their environments, and cultivators use many wild plants and animals. Yet, provision of and access to these sources of food may be declining as natural habitats come under increasing pressure from development, conservation-exclusions and agricultural expansion. Despite their value, wild foods are excluded from official statistics on economic values of natural resources. It is clear that wild plants and animals continue to form a significant proportion of the global food basket, and while a variety of social and ecological drivers are acting to reduce wild food use, their importance may be set to grow as pressures on agricultural productivity increase.</jats:p

Energy efficient ship operation through speed optimisation in various weather conditions

Speed optimisation or speed management has been an attractive topic in the shipping industry for a long time. Traditional methods rely on masters’ experience. Some recent methods are more efficient but have many constraints, which preclude obtaining an optimum speed profile. This paper introduces a relatively advanced model for global speed optimisation towards energy efficient shipping in various weather conditions and shows the effect when the method is employed. With this model, if a ship type, departure and destination ports and fixed ETA (Estimated Time Arrival) are given, the stakeholders can be provided with a more reasonable speed operation plan for a certain commercial route, which leads to lower fuel consumption. Weather conditions and, hence, routing plays a very important role in this process. Several case studies over different shipping conditions are considered to validate the model

Boundary friction characterisation of a used cylinder liner subject to fired engine conditions and surface deposition

In cylinder friction contributes as a primary source of parasitic dissipations in IC engines. For future engines to become more efficient, with enhanced fuel economy and increased power output, accurate prediction of new designs is required over the full lifetime of an engine. The work carried out presents use of a local pressure coefficient of boundary shear strength of asperities value, taking into account the localised effects of surface texture, coating and surface deposition. XPS spectra analysis was also carried out to identify the surface depositions as a result of combustion, not previously taken into account during piston ring pack simulation. Friction was shown by simulation to drop by up to 30% between the compression and combustion stroke as a result of using a carriable coefficient of boundary shear strength of asperities. It was found that piston varnish on the liner corresponded to higher values of the pressure coefficient of boundary shear strength of asperities, therefore showing the importance of using real system components run under representative operating conditions or numerical analyses

An integrated MCDM approach to evaluate public transportation systems in Tehran

Public transportation is one of the most important systems in transportation, especially in big and crowded cities. As a result, evaluation of public transportation systems is a strategic decision-making problem for both private and public sections. In this paper, the problem of public transportation passengers in Tehran is addressed and their satisfaction levels are assessed by using passenger satisfaction survey. An integrated MCDM approach is proposed for evaluation of public transportation systems based on Delphi method, group analytic hierarchy process (GAHP) and preference ranking organization method for enrichment of evaluations (PROMETHEE). The proposed model provides more reliable and realistic results and introduces directions for future improvements of public transportation service quality. A sensitivity analysis is applied to investigate the influence of criteria weights on the decision making problem. As a conclusion, the most important public transportation systems in Tehran orderly are: metro, taxi, BRT, bus and van. Therefore, Tehran Municipality and policy makers should encourage and support the previously mentioned systems

Spatiotemporal patterns of population in mainland China, 1990 to 2010

According to UN forecasts, global population will increase to over 8 billion by 2025, with much of this anticipated population growth expected in urban areas. In China, the scale of urbanization has, and continues to be, unprecedented in terms of magnitude and rate of change. Since the late 1970s, the percentage of Chinese living in urban areas increased from ~18% to over 50%. To quantify these patterns spatially we use time-invariant or temporally-explicit data, including census data for 1990, 2000, and 2010 in an ensemble prediction model. Resulting multi-temporal, gridded population datasets are unique in terms of granularity and extent, providing fine-scale (~100 m) patterns of population distribution for mainland China. For consistency purposes, the Tibet Autonomous Region, Taiwan, and the islands in the South China Sea were excluded. The statistical model and considerations for temporally comparable maps are described, along with the resulting datasets. Final, mainland China population maps for 1990, 2000, and 2010 are freely available as products from the WorldPop Project website and the WorldPop Dataverse Repository

How robust are the natural history parameters used in chlamydia transmission dynamic models? A systematic review

Transmission dynamic models linked to economic analyses often form part of the decision making process when introducing new chlamydia screening interventions. Outputs from these transmission dynamic models can vary depending on the values of the parameters used to describe the infection. Therefore these values can have an important influence on policy and resource allocation. The risk of progression from infection to pelvic inflammatory disease has been extensively studied but the parameters which govern the transmission dynamics are frequently neglected. We conducted a systematic review of transmission dynamic models linked to economic analyses of chlamydia screening interventions to critically assess the source and variability of the proportion of infections that are asymptomatic, the duration of infection and the transmission probability. We identified nine relevant studies in Pubmed, Embase and the Cochrane database. We found that there is a wide variation in their natural history parameters, including an absolute difference in the proportion of asymptomatic infections of 25% in women and 75% in men, a six-fold difference in the duration of asymptomatic infection and a four-fold difference in the per act transmission probability. We consider that much of this variation can be explained by a lack of consensus in the literature. We found that a significant proportion of parameter values were referenced back to the early chlamydia literature, before the introduction of nucleic acid modes of diagnosis and the widespread testing of asymptomatic individuals. In conclusion, authors should use high quality contemporary evidence to inform their parameter values, clearly document their assumptions and make appropriate use of sensitivity analysis. This will help to make models more transparent and increase their utility to policy makers