Modelling the 20th and 21st century evolution of Hoffellsjökull glacier, SE-Vatnajökull, Iceland

The Little Ice Age maximum extent of glaciers in Iceland was reached about 1890 AD and most glaciers in the country have retreated during the 20th century. A model for the surface mass balance and the flow of glaciers is used to reconstruct the 20th century retreat history of Hoffellsjökull, a south-flowing outlet glacier of the ice cap Vatnajökull, which is located close to the southeastern coast of Iceland. The bedrock topography was surveyed with radio-echo soundings in 2001. A wealth of data are available to force and constrain the model, e.g. surface elevation maps from ~1890, 1936, 1946, 1989, 2001, 2008 and 2010, mass balance observations conducted in 1936–1938 and after 2001, energy balance measurements after 2001, and glacier surface velocity derived by kinematic and differential GPS surveys and correlation of SPOT5 images. The approximately 20% volume loss of this glacier in the period 1895–2010 is realistically simulated with the model. After calibration of the model with past observations, it is used to simulate the future response of the glacier during the 21st century. The mass balance model was forced with an ensemble of temperature and precipitation scenarios derived from 10 global and 3 regional climate model simulations using the A1B emission scenario. If the average climate of 2000–2009 is maintained into the future, the volume of the glacier is projected to be reduced by 30% with respect to the present at the end of this century. If the climate warms, as suggested by most of the climate change scenarios, the model projects this glacier to almost disappear by the end of the 21st century. Runoff from the glacier is predicted to increase for the next 30–40 yr and decrease after that as a consequence of the diminishing ice-covered area

Surface elevation change and mass balance of Icelandic ice caps derived from swath mode CryoSat-2 altimetry

We apply swath processing to CryoSat-2 interferometric mode data acquired over the Icelandic ice caps to generate maps of rates of surface elevation change at 0.5 km postings. This high-resolution mapping reveals complex surface elevation changes in the region, related to climate, ice dynamics, and subglacial geothermal and magmatic processes. We estimate rates of volume and mass change independently for the six major Icelandic ice caps, 90% of Iceland's permanent ice cover, for five glaciological years between October 2010 and September 2015. Annual mass balance is highly variable; during the 2014/2015 glaciological year, the Vatnajökull ice cap (~70% of the glaciated area) experienced positive mass balance for the first time since 1992/1993. Our results indicate that between glaciological years 2010/2011and 2014/2015 Icelandic ice caps have lost 5.8 ± 0.7 Gt a−1 on average, ~40% less than the preceding 15 years, contributing 0.016 ± 0.002 mm a−1 to sea level rise

Axis I comorbidity in adolescent inpatients referred for treatment of substance use disorders

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>To assess comorbid DSM-IV-TR Axis I disorders in adolescent inpatients referred for treatment of substance use disorders.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>151 patients (mean age 16.95 years, SD = 1.76; range 13 - 22) were consecutively assessed with the Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI) and standardized clinical questionnaires to assess mental disorders, symptom distress, psychosocial variables and detailed aspects of drug use. A consecutively referred subgroup of these 151 patients consisting of 65 underage patients (mean age 16.12, SD = 1.10; range 13 - 17) was additionally assessed with the modules for attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and conduct disorder (CD) using The Schedule for Affective Disorders and Schizophrenia for school-aged children (K-SADS-PL).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>128 (84.8%) of the 151 patients were dependent on at least one substance, the remaining patients fulfilled diagnostic criteria for abuse only. 40.5% of the participants fulfilled criteria for at least one comorbid present Axis I disorder other than substance use disorders (67.7% in the subgroup additionally interviewed with the K-SADS-PL). High prevalences of present mood disorder (19.2%), somatoform disorders (9.3%), and anxiety disorders (22.5%) were found. The 37 female participants showed a significantly higher risk for lifetime comorbid disorders; the gender difference was significantly pronounced for anxiety and somatoform disorders. Data from the underage subgroup revealed a high prevalence for present CD (41.5%). 33% of the 106 patients (total group) who were within the mandatory school age had not attended school for at least a two-month period prior to admission. In addition, 51.4% had been temporarily expelled from school at least once.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The present data validates previous findings of high psychiatric comorbidity in adolescent patients with substance use disorders. The high rates of school refusal and conduct disorder indicate the severity of psychosocial impairment.</p

Heilsufarslegar breytingar sjúklinga í offitumeðferð á Reykjalundi

Ábyrgðarmaður rannsóknar: Ludvig Á. GuðmundssonOfþyngd og offita er sífellt algengari hjá einstaklingum á öllum aldri í ríkjum heimsins. Á Íslandi hafa verið gerðar rannsóknir sem sýna svipaða þróun hér á landi á holdafari og annars staðar. Skortur er á tölfræðilegum upplýsingum um árangur í þeim meðferðum gegn offitu sem viðhafðar eru hér á landi með varanlegar lífsstílsbreytingar að leiðarljósi. Markmið þessarar rannsóknar var að skoða árangur offitumeðferðar á Reykjalundi á þrek, púls- og blóðþrýstingssvörun á þolprófi í offitumeðferð. Auk þess var mat sjúklinganna á eigin líðan kannað með spurningalistum og borið saman við árangur. Í þessari rannsókn voru einnig skoðaðar breytingar á lífsgæðum einstaklinganna. Eingöngu konum var boðin þátttaka í rannsókninni þar sem þær hafa verið í miklum meirihluta þeirra sem komið hafa í offitumeðferð á Reykjalund. 47 konur (n=47) á aldrinum 20–60 ára samþykktu þátttöku og notaðar voru mælingar frá október 2007 – júlí 2009. Eftirfarandi mælingar voru notaðar úr forskoðun sjúklinga og að lokinni göngudeildarmeðferð og fimm vikna meðferðartímabili á dagdeild: hæð, þyngd, líkamsþyngdarstuðull (LÞS), mittismál, BIA rafleiðnimæling, 6 mín göngupróf, þolpróf á hjóli, ásamt púls- og blóðþrýstingssvörun. Auk þess voru lagðir fyrir spurningalistarnir SF-36v2 um heilsutengd lífsgæði, OP kvarði um sálfélagslega líðan tengdri offitu, BAI kvíðakvarði og BDI-II þunglyndiskvarði. Helstu niðurstöður sýndu að þátttakendur léttust að meðaltali um 11 kg (p0,05). Niðurstöður allra spurningalista sýndu marktækan jákvæðan mun á heildarstigum um 19–85% (p<0,001). Allar líkams- og heilsufarslegar mælingar sýndu jákvæðar breytingar og mat einstaklinganna á andlegri og líkamlegri líðan reyndist enn jákvæðari. Niðurstöðurnar undirstrika þýðingu markvissrar offitumeðferðar með áherslu á varanlegar lífsstílsbreytingar. Gagnlegt og áhugavert væri að skoða langtímaárangur sömu offitumeðferðar til að meta heildarárangur. Ávinningurinn af breyttum lífsstíl er óumdeildur til aukins heilbrigðis fyrir einstaklinginn og þjóðfélagið í heild.  Lykilorð: Ofþyngd, offitumeðferð,þrek, líkamleg líðan, andleg líðan, lífsstílsbreytingar.Reykjalundur, endurhæfingarstöð SÍB

Hlaupahópar : könnun á starfsemi hlaupahópa

Undanfarin ár hefur þátttaka í hlaupum aukist mikið hér á landi. Einstaklingar hafa tekið sig saman og myndað hópa sem hittast og hlaupa saman. Einnig eru hópar starfandi undir leiðsögn þjálfara en sumir þeirra hafa starfað í mörg ár. Könnun þessi fjallar um hvernig starfsemi í hlaupahópum er háttað. Markmiðið var að bera saman niðurstöður úr könnun sem lögð var fyrir átta hlaupahópa sem starfa allt árið um kring og eru með þjálfara. Ekki var markmiðið að bera hópana neitt sérstaklega saman. Þátttakendur í könnununni voru bæði af höfuðborgarsvæðinu og landsbyggðinni. Eftir að leyfi fékkst hjá þjálfurum hópanna voru hóparnir heimsóttir og könnun lögð fyrir með spurningarlista. Hóparnir sem könnunin var lögð fyrir voru átta. Frískir Flóamenn (n=17), Hlaupahópur Árbæjar og Seláss (n=12), Hlaupahlópur Fjölnis (n=30), ÍR skokk (n=26), Langhlauparadeild UFA (n=8), Laugaskokk (n=28), Skokkhópur Sauðárkróks (n=36) og Trimmklúbbur Seltjarnarness (n=29). Þátttakendur voru á aldrinum 17-71 árs og meðalaldur var 48 ár. Fyrsta könnunin var lögð fyrir 26. febrúar 2007 og sú síðasta þann 14. mars 2007. Helstu niðurstöður voru þær að félagsskapurinn og félagslegi þátturinn skipta þátttakendur í hlaupahópum miklu máli. Algengast var að æfingar væru þrisvar til fjórum sinnum í viku og enginn marktækur munur fannst á milli hópa hvað það varðaði. Algengasta vegalengd sem hlaupin var í hverri viku þegar könnun fór fram var á bilinu 21-40 kílómetrar. Munur var á milli hópa hve langt hlaupið var í hverri viku (p=0.001) og einnig á milli kynja (p=0.001). Fræðsla eða tilsögn var almennt góð í hlaupahópunum en munur fannst þó á milli einstaka hlaupahópa (p=0.001). Um þriðjungur karla og kvenna höfðu átt við álagsmeiðsli að stríða sem rekja mátti til hlaupanna. Merkilegt var að notkun púlsmæla var ekki mikil en tæplega fimmtungur þátttakenda notuðu púlsmæli til að fylgjast með þjálfunarálagi sínu. Munur fannst á milli karla og kvenna (p=0.002) á notkun púlsmæla. Þeir einstaklingar sem höfðu hlaupið einir áður en þeir fóru í hlaupahóp höfðu frekar lent í álagsmeiðslum sem hægt var að rekja til hlaupanna. Fleiri karlar en konur voru í þeim hópi. Kostnaður við að stunda hlaup var lítill. Niðurstöður könnunarinnar benda til þess að starfsemi hlaupahópa er mikilvæg, bæði hvað varðar félagsskap og fræðslu. Þátttaka í hlaupahópum er ódýr heilsurækt sem sífellt fleiri aðhyllast en mikilvægt er að efla starfsemi hópanna enn frekar

Evidence from the archives of societies: historical sources in glaciology

Glaciers have been recognized as key indicators of climate change. To assess the current decline in glaciers worldwide, their changes must be compared with natural glacier fluctuations since the end of the last ice age. To reconstruct glacier changes over recent centuries, historical methods have proven especially valuable. Pictorial and cartographical documents as well as written accounts can provide a detailed picture of glacier fluctuations, in particular frontal length changes

A benchmarking exercise for environmental contours

Environmental contours are used to simplify the process of design response analysis. A wide variety of contour methods exist; however, there have been a very limited number of comparisons of these methods to date. This paper is the output of an open benchmarking exercise, in which contributors developed contours based on their preferred methods and submitted them for a blind comparison study. The exercise had two components—one, focusing on the robustness of contour methods across different offshore sites and, the other, focusing on characterizing sampling uncertainty. Nine teams of researchers contributed to the benchmark. The analysis of the submitted contours highlighted significant differences between contours derived via different methods. For example, the highest wave height value along a contour varied by as much as a factor of two between some submissions while the number of metocean data points or observations that fell outside a contour deviated by an order of magnitude between the contributions (even for contours with a return period shorter than the duration of the record). These differences arose from both different joint distribution models and different contour construction methods, however, variability from joint distribution models appeared to be higher than variability from contour construction methods