Evaluating the ecological realism of plant species distribution models with ecological indicator values

Species distribution models (SDMs) are routinely applied to assess current as well as future species distributions, for example to assess impacts of future environmental change on biodiversity or to underpin conservation planning. It has been repeatedly emphasized that SDMs should be evaluated based not only on their goodness of fit to the data, but also on the realism of the modelled ecological responses. However, possibilities for the latter are hampered by limited knowledge on the true responses as well as a lack of quantitative evaluation methods. Here we compared modelled niche optima obtained from European-scale SDMs of 1,476 terrestrial vascular plant species with empirical ecological indicator values indicating the preferences of plant species for key environmental conditions. For each plant species we first fitted an ensemble SDM including three modeling techniques (GLM, GAM and BRT) and extracted niche optima for climate, soil, land use and nitrogen deposition variables with a large explanatory power for the occurrence of that species. We then compared these SDM-derived niche optima with the ecological indicator values by means of bivariate correlation analysis. We found weak to moderate correlations in the expected direction between the SDM-derived niche optima and ecological indicator values. The strongest correlation occurred between the modelled optima for growing degree days and the ecological indicator values for temperature. Correlations were weaker for SDM-derived niche optima with a more distal relationship to ecological indicator values (notably precipitation and soil moisture). Further, correlations were consistently highest for BRT, followed by GLM and GAM. Our method gives insight into the ecological realism of modelled niche optima and projected core habitats and can be used to improve SDMs by making a more informed selection of environmental variables and modeling techniques

Averages of Fourier coefficients of Siegel modular forms and representation of binary quadratic forms by quadratic forms in four variables

Let $-d$ be a a negative discriminant and let $T$ vary over a set of representatives of the integral equivalence classes of integral binary quadratic forms of discriminant $-d$. We prove an asymptotic formula for $d \to \infty$ for the average over $T$ of the number of representations of $T$ by an integral positive definite quaternary quadratic form and obtain results on averages of Fourier coefficients of linear combinations of Siegel theta series. We also find an asymptotic bound from below on the number of binary forms of fixed discriminant $-d$ which are represented by a given quaternary form. In particular, we can show that for growing $d$ a positive proportion of the binary quadratic forms of discriminant $-d$ is represented by the given quaternary quadratic form.Comment: v5: Some typos correcte

The cellular microscopy phenotype ontology

BACKGROUND: Phenotypic data derived from high content screening is currently annotated using free-text, thus preventing the integration of independent datasets, including those generated in different biological domains, such as cell lines, mouse and human tissues. DESCRIPTION: We present the Cellular Microscopy Phenotype Ontology (CMPO), a species neutral ontology for describing phenotypic observations relating to the whole cell, cellular components, cellular processes and cell populations. CMPO is compatible with related ontology efforts, allowing for future cross-species integration of phenotypic data. CMPO was developed following a curator-driven approach where phenotype data were annotated by expert biologists following the Entity-Quality (EQ) pattern. These EQs were subsequently transformed into new CMPO terms following an established post composition process. CONCLUSION: CMPO is currently being utilized to annotate phenotypes associated with high content screening datasets stored in several image repositories including the Image Data Repository (IDR), MitoSys project database and the Cellular Phenotype Database to facilitate data browsing and discoverability

Testing Hardy nonlocality proof with genuine energy-time entanglement

We show two experimental realizations of Hardy ladder test of quantum nonlocality using energy-time correlated photons, following the scheme proposed by A. Cabello \emph{et al.} [Phys. Rev. Lett. \textbf{102}, 040401 (2009)]. Unlike, previous energy-time Bell experiments, these tests require precise tailored nonmaximally entangled states. One of them is equivalent to the two-setting two-outcome Bell test requiring a minimum detection efficiency. The reported experiments are still affected by the locality and detection loopholes, but are free of the post-selection loophole of previous energy-time and time-bin Bell tests.Comment: 5 pages, revtex4, 6 figure

Contrasting stomatal sensitivity to temperature and soil drought in mature alpine conifers

Conifers growing at high elevations need to optimize their stomatal conductance (g(s)) for maximizing photosynthetic yield while minimizing water loss under less favourable thermal conditions. Yet the ability of high-elevation conifers to adjust their g(s) sensitivity to environmental drivers remains largely unexplored. We used 4 years of sap flow measurements to elucidate intraspecific and interspecific variability of g(s) in Larix decidua Mill. and Picea abies (L.) Karst along an elevational gradient and contrasting soil moisture conditions. Site- and species-specific g(s) response to main environmental drivers were examined, including vapour pressure deficit, air temperature, solar irradiance, and soil water potential. Our results indicate that maximum g(s) of L. decidua is >2 times higher, shows a more plastic response to temperature, and down-regulates g(s) stronger during atmospheric drought compared to P. abies. These differences allow L. decidua to exert more efficient water use, adjust to site-specific thermal conditions, and reduce water loss during drought episodes. The stronger plasticity of g(s) sensitivity to temperature and higher conductance of L. decidua compared to P. abies provide new insights into species-specific water use strategies, which affect species' performance and should be considered when predicting terrestrial water dynamics under future climatic change

Long-term changes to the frequency of occurrence of British moths are consistent with opposing and synergistic effects of climate and land-use changes

1. Species’ distributions are likely to be affected by a combination of environmental drivers. We used a data set of 11 million species occurrence records over the period 1970–2010 to assess changes in the frequency of occurrence of 673 macro-moth species in Great Britain. Groups of species with different predicted sensitivities showed divergent trends, which we interpret in the context of land-use and climatic changes. 2. A diversity of responses was revealed: 260 moth species declined significantly, whereas 160 increased significantly. Overall, frequencies of occurrence declined, mirroring trends in less species-rich, yet more intensively studied taxa. 3. Geographically widespread species, which were predicted to be more sensitive to land use than to climate change, declined significantly in southern Britain, where the cover of urban and arable land has increased. 4. Moths associated with low nitrogen and open environments (based on their larval host plant characteristics) declined most strongly, which is also consistent with a land-use change explanation. 5. Some moths that reach their northern (leading edge) range limit in southern Britain increased, whereas species restricted to northern Britain (trailing edge) declined significantly, consistent with a climate change explanation. 6. Not all species of a given type behaved similarly, suggesting that complex interactions between species’ attributes and different combinations of environmental drivers determine frequency of occurrence changes. 7. Synthesis and applications. Our findings are consistent with large-scale responses to climatic and land-use changes, with some species increasing and others decreasing. We suggest that land-use change (e.g. habitat loss, nitrogen deposition) and climate change are both major drivers of moth biodiversity change, acting independently and in combination. Importantly, the diverse responses revealed in this species-rich taxon show that multifaceted conservation strategies are needed to minimize negative biodiversity impacts of multiple environmental changes. We suggest that habitat protection, management and ecological restoration can mitigate combined impacts of land-use change and climate change by providing environments that are suitable for existing populations and also enable species to shift their ranges

Aquatic community response to volcanic eruptions on the Ecuadorian Andean flank: evidence from the palaeoecological record

Aquatic ecosystems in the tropical Andes are under increasing pressure from human modification of the landscape (deforestation and dams) and climatic change (increase of extreme events and 1.5 °C on average temperatures are projected for AD 2100). However, the resilience of these ecosystems to perturbations is poorly understood. Here we use a multi-proxy palaeoecological approach to assess the response of aquatic ecosystems to a major mechanism for natural disturbance, volcanic ash deposition. Specifically, we present data from two Neotropical lakes located on the eastern Andean flank of Ecuador. Laguna Pindo (1°27.132′S–78°04.847′W) is a tectonically formed closed basin surrounded by a dense mid-elevation forest, whereas Laguna Baños (0°19.328′S–78°09.175′W) is a glacially formed lake with an inflow and outflow in high Andean Páramo grasslands. In each lake we examined the dynamics of chironomids and other aquatic and semi-aquatic organisms to explore the effect of thick (> 5 cm) volcanic deposits on the aquatic communities in these two systems with different catchment features. In both lakes past volcanic ash deposition was evident from four large tephras dated to c.850 cal year BP (Pindo), and 4600, 3600 and 1500 cal year BP (Baños). Examination of the chironomid and aquatic assemblages before and after the ash depositions revealed no shift in composition at Pindo, but a major change at Baños occurred after the last event around 1500 cal year BP. Chironomids at Baños changed from an assemblage dominated by Pseudochironomus and Polypedilum nubifer-type to Cricotopus/Paratrichocladius type-II, and such a dominance lasted for approximately 380 years. We suggest that, despite potential changes in the water chemistry, the major effect on the chironomid community resulted from the thickness of the tephra being deposited, which acted to shallow the water body beyond a depth threshold. Changes in the aquatic flora and fauna at the base of the trophic chain can promote cascade effects that may deteriorate the ecosystem, especially when already influenced by human activities, such as deforestation and dams, which is frequent in the high Andes

Bayesian classification of vegetation types with Gaussian mixture density fitting to indicator values.

Question: Is it possible to mathematically classify relevés into vegetation types on the basis of their average indicator values, including the uncertainty of the classification? Location: The Netherlands. Method: A large relevé database was used to develop a method for predicting vegetation types based on indicator values. First, each relevé was classified into a phytosociological association on the basis of its species composition. Additionally, mean indicator values for moisture, nutrients and acidity were computed for each relevé. Thus, the position of each classified relevé was obtained in a three-dimensional space of indicator values. Fitting the data to so called Gaussian Mixture Models yielded densities of associations as a function of indicator values. Finally, these density functions were used to predict the Bayesian occurrence probabilities of associations for known indicator values. Validation of predictions was performed by using a randomly chosen half of the database for the calibration of densities and the other half for the validation of predicted associations. Results and Conclusions: With indicator values, most relevés were classified correctly into vegetation types at the association level. This was shown using confusion matrices that relate (1) the number of relevés classified into associations based on species composition to (2) those based on indicator values. Misclassified relevés belonged to ecologically similar associations. The method seems very suitable for predictive vegetation models

Human Impacts on Forest Biodiversity in Protected Walnut-Fruit Forests in Kyrgyzstan

We used a spatially explicit model of forest dynamics, supported by empirical field data and socioeconomic data, to examine the impacts of human disturbances on a protected forest landscape in Kyrgyzstan. Local use of 27 fruit and nut species was recorded and modeled. Results indicated that in the presence of fuelwood cutting with or without grazing, species of high socioeconomic impor- tance such as Juglans regia, Malus spp., and Armeniaca vulgaris were largely eliminated from the landscape after 50–150 yr. In the absence of disturbance or in the presence of grazing only, decline of these species occurred at a much lower rate, owing to competi- tive interactions between tree species. This suggests that the current intensity of fuelwood harvesting is not sustainable. Conversely, cur- rent grazing intensities were found to have relatively little impact on forest structure and composition, and could potentially play a positive role in supporting regeneration of tree species. These results indicate that both positive and negative impacts on biodiversity can arise from human populations living within a protected area. Potentially, these could be reconciled through the development of participatory approaches to conservation management within this reserve, to ensure the maintenance of its high conservation value while meeting human needs