Cambio y persistencia en el espacio geográfico: consideraciones para la reflexión medioambiental.

Tras analizar las relaciones entre espacio, naturaleza y sociedad, la atenojén se centra en los aspectos dinámicos del espacio, destacando las ideas de cambio e inercia territorial y subrayando el papel de las distintas escalas temporales y espaciales.Tras analizar las relaciones entre espacio, naturaleza y sociedad, la atenojén se centra en los aspectos dinámicos del espacio, destacando las ideas de cambio e inercia territorial y subrayando el papel de las distintas escalas temporales y espaciales

Acessibilidade e SIG no planeamento em saúde: uma abordagem baseada em modelos de alocação-localização

As políticas e as práticas de planeamento em saúde devera promover o acesso aos cuidados de saúde primarios, urna área na qual a distribuicao dos equipamentos e a acessibilidade da populacáo assumem particular relevancia. O sistema de saúde deve proporcionar níveis de acessibilidade adequados a cada grupo funcional, particularmente nos territorios dotados de urna populacáo mais envelhecida. O aumento do número de idosos torna mais premente o papel que as políticas públicas de saúde podem ter na reducáo das desigualdades em saúde. Neste artigo, pretende-se avahar o contributo dos modelos de localizacao para a identificacao da localizacao mais adequada das unidades de cuidados de saúde primarios e comparar como variam os níveis de acessibilidade entre as solucóes propostas pelos varios modelos. Da aplicacao conduzida retirou-se que estas solucóes permitem obter ganhos em termos de acessibilidade, melhorando a proximidade entre os equipamentos e os utentes. ----------ABSTRACT---------- The health system should be endowed with adequate accessibility levels to each functional population cohort it envisages to serve. In the case we are before higher levels of elder population, those health necessities increase. The location of health facilities should have in mind the demographic structure of each territory. Accordingly, the increase of elder people turns more needed public health policies addressed to mitigate social exclusion processes that can occur. Health public policies and planning practices should promote accessibility to primary health care facilities. In such a context, the location of those facilities and its accessibility have a particular importance. In this article, we envisage to evaluate the contribution of the location models to identify the more adequate locations of the health facilities and to check how the accessibility levels vary according to the results obtained from those models

Diseño de la trama urbana y cobertura de las redes de transporte público

Una de las claves en su uso del transporte público es la accesibilidad de la población a las paradas o estaciones. Los planificadores del transporte han buscado siempre localizaciones de paradas y estaciones en espacios con un volumen importante de población residente y/o empleo en su entorno inmediato. En los últimos años, se conjugan también políticas urbanísticas para generar nuevos desarrollos urbanos orientados al uso del transporte público. Se busca potenciar las llamadas 3D: densidad, diversidad de usos y diseño urbano. En esta comunicación el objetivo es analizar cómo influye el diseño de la trama urbana en la cobertura de las redes de transporte público (cantidad de población y el empleo en el entorno próximo de las estaciones). La metodología se apoya en el uso de Sistemas de Información Geográfica, sobre los que se han diseñado varios tipos de viarios, y para los que miden las superficies cubiertas y las distancias recorridas a estaciones localizadas en el centro de cada uno de ellos. Posteriormente, se hace un ejercicio de simulación donde se ha tomado el Metro de la ciudad de Madrid, y se han superpuesto sobre todas las estaciones de la red cada uno de los viarios tipo. Así, es posible calcular la población y el empleo cubiertos para cada uno de los escenarios tipo y compararla con la cobertura y la calidad de acceso a las estaciones a través del viario real de la ciudad. Al mantenerse fija las distribuciones de población y empleo, las diferencias se explican exclusivamente por el diseño de la trama urbana. Los resultados muestran como viarios orientados las estaciones incrementan notablemente la población y el empleo cubiertos

Regional polycentricity: an indicator framework for assessing cohesion impacts of railway infrastructures

Territorial cohesion has become one of the main objectives in transport planning. This has fostered the development of assessment methodologies to quantitatively estimate the territorial impact of major transport infrastructures, which are particularly scarce at the intra-regional level. Linked to cohesion, polycentricity has been defined as the best spatial configuration to achieve balanced regions where population and opportunities are distributed among several entities linked by functional relationships. This paper aims to present a methodology to estimate these impacts based on the use of a new regional composite polycentricity indicator. The proposed indicator is tested by comparing the effects of conventional and high-speed railway (HSR) alternatives in the territorial system of a northern region of Spain. This quantitative assessment is a ranking tool for prioritizing rail network alternatives in terms of achieving the most balanced territory, which is especially relevant in countries where HSR networks follow cohesion goals. Our results show that new HSR links should only be complementary to regional railway services, and that the suppression of secondary lines should be avoided if a reduction in polarization is to be achieved.E. González-González gratefully acknowledges a predoctoral fellowship (FPI) from the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (reference BES-2008–00436)

Assessing the skill of precipitation and temperature seasonal forecasts in Spain: windows of opportunity related to ENSO events

1. The skill of state-of-the-art operational seasonal forecast models in extratropical latitudes is assessed using a multimodel ensemble from the Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble System for Seasonalto- Interannual Prediction (DEMETER) project. In particular, probabilistic forecasts of surface precipitation and maximum temperature in Spain are analyzed using a high-resolution observation gridded dataset (Spain02). To this aim, a simple statistical test based on the observed and predicted tercile anomalies is used. First, the whole period 1960–2000 is considered and it is shown that the only significant skill is found for dry events in autumn. Then, the influence of ENSO events as a potential source of conditional predictability is studied and the validation to strong La Niña or El Niño periods is restricted. Skillful seasonal predictions are found in partial agreement with the observed teleconnections derived from the historical records. On the one hand, predictability is found in spring related to El Niño events for dry events over the south and the Mediterranean coast and for hot events in the southeast areas. In contrast, La Niña drives predictability in winter for dry events over the western part and for hot events in summer over the south and the Mediterranean coast. This study considers both the direct model outputs and the postprocessed predictions obtained using a statistical downscaling method based on analogs. In general, the use of the downscaling method outperforms the direct output for precipitation, whereas in the case of the temperature no improvement is obtained

Testing MOS precipitation downscaling for ENSEMBLES regional climate models over Spain

Model Output Statistics (MOS) has been recently proposed as an alternative to the standard perfect prognosis statistical downscaling approach for Regional Climate Model (RCM) outputs. In this case, the model output for the variable of interest (e.g. precipitation) is directly downscaled using observations. In this paper we test the performance of a MOS implementation of the popular analog methodology (referred to as MOS analog) applied to downscale daily precipitation outputs over Spain. To this aim, we consider the state‐of‐the‐art ERA40‐driven RCMs provided by the EU‐funded ENSEMBLES project and the Spain02 gridded observations data set, using the common period 1961–2000. The MOS analog method improves the representation of the mean regimes, the annual cycle, the frequency and the extremes of precipitation for all RCMs, regardless of the region and the model reliability (including relatively low‐performing models), while preserving the daily accuracy. The good performance of the method in this complex climatic region suggests its potential transferability to other regions. Furthermore, in order to test the robustness of the method in changing climate conditions, a cross‐validation in driest or wettest years was performed. The method improves the RCM results in both cases, especially in the former

©FUNPEC-RP www

ABSTRACT. The tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-α) gene plays an important role in cell proliferation, differentiation, apoptosis, lipid metabolism, coagulation, insulin resistance, and endothelial function. Polymorphisms of TNF-α have been associated with cancer. We examined the role of the -308G>A polymorphism in this gene by comparing the genotypes of 294 healthy Mexican women with those of 465 Mexican women with breast cancer. The observed genotype frequencies for controls and breast cancer patients were 1 and 14% for AA, 13 and 21% for GA, and 86 and 65% for GG, respectively. We found that the odds ratio (OR) for AA genotype was 2.4, with a 95% confidence interval (95%CI) of 5.9-101.1 (P = 0.0001). The association was also evident when comparing the distribution of the AA-GA genotype in patients in the following categories: 1) premenopause and obesity I (OR = 3.5, 95%CI = 1.3-9.3, P = 0.008), 2) Her-2 neu and tumor stage I-II (OR = 2.5, 95%CI = 1.31-4.8, P = 0.004), 3) premenopause and tumor stage III-IV (OR = 1.7, 95%CI = 1.0-2.9, P = 0.034), 4) chemotherapy non-response and abnormal hematocrit (OR = 2.4, 95%CI = 1.2-4.8, P = 0.015), 5) body mass index and Her-2 neu and III-IV tumor stage (OR = 2.8, 95%CI = 1.2-6.6, P = 0.016), and 6) nodule metastasis and K-I67 (OR = 4.0, 95%CI = 1.01-15.7, P = 0.038). We concluded that the genotypes AA-GA of the -308G>A polymorphism in TNF-α significantly contribute to breast cancer susceptibility in the analyzed sample from the Mexican population