Cost-effectiveness and budget effect of pre-exposure prophylaxis for HIV-1 prevention in Germany from 2018 to 2058

Background Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is a highly effective HIV prevention strategy for men-who-have-sex-with-men (MSM). The high cost of PrEP has until recently been a primary barrier to its use. In 2017, generic PrEP became available, reducing the costs by 90%. Aim Our objective was to assess cost-effectiveness and costs of introducing PrEP in Germany. Methods We calibrated a deterministic mathematical model to the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic among MSM in Germany. PrEP was targeted to 30% of high-risk MSM. It was assumed that PrEP reduces the risk of HIV infection by 85%. Costs were calculated from a healthcare payer perspective using a 40-year time horizon starting in 2018. Results PrEP can avert 21,000 infections (interquartile range (IQR): 16,000–27,000) in the short run (after 2 years scale-up and 10 years full implementation). HIV care is predicted to cost EUR 36.2 billion (IQR: 32.4–40.4 billion) over the coming 40 years. PrEP can increase costs by at most EUR 150 million within the first decade after introduction. Ten years after introduction, PrEP can become cost-saving, accumulating to savings of HIV-related costs of EUR 5.1 billion (IQR: 3.5–6.9 billion) after 40 years. In a sensitivity analysis, PrEP remained cost-saving even at a 70% price reduction of antiretroviral drug treatment and a lower effectiveness of PrEP. Conclusion Introduction of PrEP in Germany is predicted to result in substantial health benefits because of reductions in HIV infections. Short-term financial investments in providing PrEP will result in substantial cost-savings in the long term

AIDS

OBJECTIVE: HIV cohorts are an important source of clinical data for informing public health policies and programs. However, the generalisability of cohort findings to the wider population of people diagnosed with HIV in each country remains unclear. In this work, we assessed the representativeness of six large national HIV cohorts within Europe. DESIGN AND METHODS: Individual-level cohort data were provided from national cohorts in France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Spain and the UK. Analysis focused on new HIV diagnoses reported to the European Surveillance System (TESSy) during three time periods (2000-2004, 2005-2009 and 2010-2013), to allow for temporal changes. Cohort and TESSy records were matched and compared by age, gender, transmission mode, region of origin, and CD4 count at diagnosis. The probability of being included in each cohort given demographic characteristics was estimated and was used to generate weights inversely proportional to the probability of being included. RESULTS: Participating cohorts were generally representative of the national HIV-diagnosed population submitted to TESSy. However, people who inject drugs (PWID), those born in a country other than that reporting the data, those with low CD4 counts at diagnosis, and those >55 years were generally under-represented in the cohorts examined. CONCLUSIONS: These European cohorts capture a representative sample of the HIV-diagnosed populations in each country; however some groups may be under-represented

Easy and accurate reconstruction of whole HIV genomes from short-read sequence data

Abstract Next-generation sequencing has yet to be widely adopted for HIV. The difficulty of accurately reconstructing the consensus sequence of a quasispecies from reads (short fragments of DNA) in the presence of rapid between- and within-host evolution may have presented a barrier. In particular, mapping (aligning) reads to a reference sequence leads to biased loss of information; this bias can distort epidemiological and evolutionary conclusions. De novo assembly avoids this bias by effectively aligning the reads to themselves, producing a set of sequences called contigs. However contigs provide only a partial summary of the reads, misassembly may result in their having an incorrect structure, and no information is available at parts of the genome where contigs could not be assembled. To address these problems we developed the tool shiver to preprocess reads for quality and contamination, then map them to a reference tailored to the sample using corrected contigs supplemented with existing reference sequences. Run with two commands per sample, it can easily be used for large heterogeneous data sets. We use shiver to reconstruct the consensus sequence and minority variant information from paired-end short-read data produced with the Illumina platform, for 65 existing publicly available samples and 50 new samples. We show the systematic superiority of mapping to shiver ’s constructed reference over mapping the same reads to the standard reference HXB2: an average of 29 bases per sample are called differently, of which 98.5% are supported by higher coverage. We also provide a practical guide to working with imperfect contigs

Human Immunodeficiency Virus Continuum of Care in 11 European Union Countries at the End of 2016 Overall and by Key Population: Have We Made Progress?

High uptake of antiretroviral treatment (ART) is essential to reduce human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission and related mortality; however, gaps in care exist. We aimed to construct the continuum of HIV care (CoC) in 2016 in 11 European Union (EU) countries, overall and by key population and sex. To estimate progress toward the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) 90-90-90 target, we compared 2016 to 2013 estimates for the same countries, representing 73% of the population in the region. A CoC with the following 4 stages was constructed: number of people living with HIV (PLHIV); proportion of PLHIV diagnosed; proportion of those diagnosed who ever initiated ART; and proportion of those ever treated who achieved viral suppression at their last visit. We estimated that 87% of PLHIV were diagnosed; 92% of those diagnosed had ever initiated ART; and 91% of those ever on ART, or 73% of all PLHIV, were virally suppressed. Corresponding figures for men having sex with men were: 86%, 93%, 93%, 74%; for people who inject drugs: 94%, 88%, 85%, 70%; and for heterosexuals: 86%, 92%, 91%, 72%. The proportion suppressed of all PLHIV ranged from 59% to 86% across countries. The EU is close to the 90-90-90 target and achieved the UNAIDS target of 73% of all PLHIV virally suppressed, significant progress since 2013 when 60% of all PLHIV were virally suppressed. Strengthening of testing programs and treatment support, along with prevention interventions, are needed to achieve HIV epidemic control.This work was supported by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control through a framework contract (ECDC/2016/028).S

The Human Immunodeficiency Virus Continuum of Care in European Union Countries in 2013: Data and Challenges

The Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) has set a "90-90-90" target to curb the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic by 2020, but methods used to assess whether countries have reached this target are not standardized, hindering comparisons. Through a collaboration formed by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) with European HIV cohorts and surveillance agencies, we constructed a standardized, 4-stage continuum of HIV care for 11 European Union countries for 2013. Stages were defined as (1) number of people living with HIV in the country by end of 2013; (2) proportion of stage 1 ever diagnosed; (3) proportion of stage 2 that ever initiated ART; and (4) proportion of stage 3 who became virally suppressed (≤200 copies/mL). Case surveillance data were used primarily to derive stages 1 (using back-calculation models) and 2, and cohort data for stages 3 and 4. In 2013, 674500 people in the 11 countries were estimated to be living with HIV, ranging from 5500 to 153400 in each country. Overall HIV prevalence was 0.22% (range, 0.09%-0.36%). Overall proportions of each previous stage were 84% diagnosed, 84% on ART, and 85% virally suppressed (60% of people living with HIV). Two countries achieved ≥90% for all stages, and more than half had reached ≥90% for at least 1 stage. European Union countries are nearing the 90-90-90 target. Reducing the proportion undiagnosed remains the greatest barrier to achieving this target, suggesting that further efforts are needed to improve HIV testing rates. Standardizing methods to derive comparable continuums of care remains a challeng

The HIV continuum of care in European Union countries in 2013: data and challenges

BACKGROUND: UNAIDS has set a 90-90-90 target to curb the HIV epidemic by 2020, but methods used to assess whether countries have reached this target are not standardised, hindering comparisons. METHODS: Through a collaboration formed by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) with European HIV cohorts and surveillance agencies, we constructed a standardised, four-stage continuum of HIV care for 11 European Union (EU) countries for 2013. Stages were defined as: 1) number of people living with HIV (PLHIV) in the country by end of 2013; 2) proportion of stage 1 ever diagnosed; 3) proportion of stage 2 ever initiated ART; and 4) proportion of stage 3 who became virally-suppressed (≤200 copies/mL). Case surveillance data were used primarily to derive stages 1 (using back-calculation models) and 2, and cohort data for stages 3 and 4. RESULTS: In 2013, 674,500 people in the 11 countries were estimated to be living with HIV, ranging from 5,500 to 153,400 in each country. Overall HIV prevalence was 0.22% (range 0.09%-0.36%). Overall proportions, of each previous stage, were 84% diagnosed, 84% on ART, and 85% virally-suppressed (60% of PLHIV). Two countries achieved ≥90% for all stages, and over half had reached ≥90% for at least one stage. CONCLUSIONS: EU countries are nearing the 90-90-90 target. Reducing the proportion undiagnosed remains the greatest barrier to achieving this target, suggesting further efforts are needed to improve HIV testing rates. Standardising methods to derive comparable continuums of care remains a challenge

International trends in new HIV diagnoses among men who have sex with men in North America, Western Europe and Australia 2000-2014

An increase in HIV diagnoses in men who have sex with men (MSM) in high-income countries was identified from 2000-2005. We sought to investigate recent trends through 2014 to better inform treatment and prevention strategies.N/

Effect of incident hepatitis C infection on CD4 cell count and HIV RNA trajectories based on a multinational HIV seroconversion cohort

Most studies on hepatitis C virus (HCV)/HIV-coinfection do not account for the order and duration of these two infections. We aimed to assess the effect of incident HCV infection, and its timing relative to HIV seroconversion (HIVsc) in HIV-positive MSM on their subsequent CD4 T-cell count and HIV RNA viral load trajectories.Methods:We included MSM with well estimated dates of HIVsc from 17 cohorts within the CASCADE Collaboration. HCV-coinfected MSM were matched to as many HIV monoinfected MSM as possible by HIV-infection duration and combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) use. We used multilevel random-effects models stratified by cART use to assess differences in CD4 cell count and HIV RNA viral load trajectories by HCV-coinfection status.Findings:We matched 214 (ART-naive) and 147 (on cART) HCV-coinfected MSM to 5384 and 3954, respectively, matched controls. The timing of HCV seroconversion (HCVsc) relative to HIVsc had no demonstrable effect on HIV RNA viral load or CD4 cell count trajectories. In the first 2-3 years following HCVsc CD4 cell counts were lower among HCV-coinfected MSM, but became comparable with HIV monoinfected MSM thereafter. In ART-naive MSM, during the first 2 years after HCVsc, HIV RNA viral load levels were lower or comparable with HIV monoinfected, tending to be higher thereafter. In MSM on cART, HCV had no significant effect on having a detectable HIV RNA viral load.Interpretation:Irrespective of the duration of HIV infection when HCV is acquired, CD4 cell counts were temporarily lower following HCVsc, even when on cART. The clinical implications of our findings remain to be further elucidated. © 2018 Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved

Effect of incident hepatitis C infection on CD4 count and HIV RNA trajectories based on a multinational HIV seroconversion cohort.

Most studies on hepatitis C virus (HCV)/HIV co-infection do not account for the order and duration of these two infections. We aimed to assess the effect of incident HCV infection, and its timing relative to HIV seroconversion (HIVsc) in HIV-positive men who have sex with men (MSM) on their subsequent CD4 T-cell count (CD4) and HIV-RNA viral load (VL) trajectories