Projeccions climàtiques i escenaris de futur

Aquest capítol tracta de la projecció dels impactes de climes futurs per a trams vulnerables de la costa catalana. Al començament, s’hi revisa la geodiversitat de la costa en termes meteorològics i geològics. El ventall d’impactes que en resulta (sota climes presents i futurs) presenta uns nivells d’incertesa que s’han de considerar per a poder prendre decisions. L’anàlisi es basa en les projeccions del nivell mitjà del mar i en les característiques de l’onatge per a les famílies d’escenaris RCP (trajectòries de concentracions representatives). La projecció dels impactes d’erosió i inundació per a platges i d’agitació i ultrapassament per a ports permet determinar quin és el domini costaner sotmès a aquests impactes, i també quins seran els nivells de risc que es poden esperar en platges i ports. Les conclusions del capítol s’estructuren com un seguit d’actuacions seqüencials per a afavorir la sostenibilitat de la costa. Aquest «camí d’adaptació» permetrà d’assolir uns nivells de riscs presents i futurs explícits, que han de ser considerats per a les activitats socioeconòmiques de la zona litoral.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Upper limb disease evolution in exon 53 skipping eligible patients with Duchenne muscular dystrophy

Objective: To understand the natural disease upper limb progression over 3 years of ambulatory and non-ambulatory patients with Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) using functional assessments and quantitative magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and to exploratively identify prognostic factors. Methods: Forty boys with DMD (22 non-ambulatory and 18 ambulatory) with deletions in dystrophin that make them eligible for exon 53-skipping therapy were included. Clinical assessments, including Brooke score, motor function measure (MFM), hand grip and key pinch strength, and upper limb distal coordination and endurance (MoviPlate), were performed every 6 months and quantitative MRI of fat fraction (FF) and lean muscle cross sectional area (flexor and extensor muscles) were performed yearly. Results: In the whole population, there were strong nonlinear correlations between outcome measures. In non-ambulatory patients, annual changes over the course of 3 years were detected with high sensitivity standard response mean (|SRM| ≥0.8) for quantitative MRI-based FF, hand grip and key pinch, and MFM. Boys who presented with a FF27% were able to bring a glass to their mouth and retained this ability in the following 3 years. Ambulatory patients with grip strength >35% of predicted value and FF <10% retained ambulation 3 years later. Interpretation: We demonstrate that continuous decline in upper limb strength, function, and MRI measured muscle structure can be reliably measured in ambulatory and non-ambulatory boys with DMD with high SRM and strong correlations between outcomes. Our results suggest that a combination of grip strength and FF can be used to predict important motor milestones

Multiyear climate predictions using two initialization strategies

Multiyear climate predictions with two initialization strategies are systematically assessed in the EC-Earth V2.3 climate model. In one ensemble, an estimate of the observed climate state is used to initialize the model. The other uses estimates of observed ocean and sea ice anomalies on top of the model climatology. The ensembles show similar spatial characteristics of drift related to the biases in control simulations. As expected, the drift is less with anomaly initialization. The full field initialization overshoots to a colder state which is related to cold biases in the tropics and North Atlantic, associated with oceanic processes. Despite different amplitude of the drift, both ensembles show similar skill in multiyear global temperature predictions, but regionally differences are found. On multiyear time scales, initialization with observations enhances both deterministic and probabilistic skill scores in the North Atlantic. The probabilistic verification shows skill over the European continent

Projeccions climàtiques i escenaris de futur

Aquest capítol tracta de la projecció dels impactes de climes futurs per a trams vulnerables de la costa catalana. Al començament, s’hi revisa la geodiversitat de la costa en termes meteorològics i geològics. El ventall d’impactes que en resulta (sota climes presents i futurs) presenta uns nivells d’incertesa que s’han de considerar per a poder prendre decisions. L’anàlisi es basa en les projeccions del nivell mitjà del mar i en les característiques de l’onatge per a les famílies d’escenaris RCP (trajectòries de concentracions representatives). La projecció dels impactes d’erosió i inundació per a platges i d’agitació i ultrapassament per a ports permet determinar quin és el domini costaner sotmès a aquests impactes, i també quins seran els nivells de risc que es poden esperar en platges i ports. Les conclusions del capítol s’estructuren com un seguit d’actuacions seqüencials per a afavorir la sostenibilitat de la costa. Aquest «camí d’adaptació» permetrà d’assolir uns nivells de riscs presents i futurs explícits, que han de ser considerats per a les activitats socioeconòmiques de la zona litoral.Peer Reviewe

Climate change projections using the IPSL-CM5 Earth System Model: from CMIP3 to CMIP5

We present the global general circulation model IPSL-CM5 developed to study the long-term response of the climate system to natural and anthropogenic forcings as part of the 5th Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). This model includes an interactive carbon cycle, a representation of tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry, and a comprehensive representation of aerosols. As it represents the principal dynamical, physical, and bio-geochemical processes relevant to the climate system, it may be referred to as an Earth System Model. However, the IPSL-CM5 model may be used in a multitude of configurations associated with different boundary conditions and with a range of complexities in terms of processes and interactions. This paper presents an overview of the different model components and explains how they were coupled and used to simulate historical climate changes over the past 150 years and different scenarios of future climate change. A single version of the IPSL-CM5 model (IPSL-CM5A-LR) was used to provide climate projections associated with different socio-economic scenarios, including the different Representative Concentration Pathways considered by CMIP5 and several scenarios from the Special Report on Emission Scenarios considered by CMIP3. Results suggest that the magnitude of global warming projections primarily depends on the socio-economic scenario considered, that there is potential for an aggressive mitigation policy to limit global warming to about two degrees, and that the behavior of some components of the climate system such as the Arctic sea ice and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation may change drastically by the end of the twenty-first century in the case of a no climate policy scenario. Although the magnitude of regional temperature and precipitation changes depends fairly linearly on the magnitude of the projected global warming (and thus on the scenario considered), the geographical pattern of these changes is strikingly similar for the different scenarios. The representation of atmospheric physical processes in the model is shown to strongly influence the simulated climate variability and both the magnitude and pattern of the projected climate changes