QMM. A Quarterly Macroeconomic Model of the Icelandic Economy

This paper documents and describes Version 2.0 of the Quarterly Macroeconomic Model of the Central Bank of Iceland (QMM). QMM and the underlying quarterly database have been under construction since 2001 at the Research and Forecasting Division of the Economics Department at the Bank and was first implemented in the forecasting round for the Monetary Bulletin 2006.1 in March 2006. QMM is used by the Bank for forecasting and various policy simulations and therefore plays a key role as an organisational framework for viewing the medium-term future when formulating monetary policy at the Bank. This paper is mainly focused on the short and medium-term properties of QMM. Steady state properties of the model are documented in a paper by Daníelsson (2009).

REFIR- a multi-parameter system for near real-time estimates of plume-height and mass eruption rate during explosive eruptions

Meaningful forecasting of the atmospheric concentration and ground accumulation of volcanic ash during explosive eruptions requires detailed knowledge of the eruption source parameters. However, due to the large uncertainties in observations and limitations of current models used to make inferences from these, monitoring an ongoing eruption and quantifying the mass eruption rate in real-time is a considerable challenge. Within the EU supersite project “FutureVolc”, an integrated approach has been applied to develop a quasi-autonomous multi-parameter system, denoted “REFIR”, for monitoring volcanic eruptions in Iceland and assessing the eruption mass flow rate by inverting the plume height information and taking account of these uncertainties. REFIR has the capability to ingest and process streaming plume-height data provided by a multitude of ground based sensors, including C– and X-band radars and web-cam based plume height tracking systems. These observational data are used with a suite of plume models that also consider the current wind and other atmospheric conditions, providing statistically assessed best estimates of plume height and mass eruption rate. Provided instrumental data is available, near real-time estimates are obtained (the delay corresponding to the scan rate of data-providing instruments, presently of the order of minutes). Using the Hekla 2000, and Eyjafjallajökull 2010 eruptions in Iceland, the potential of REFIR is demonstrated and discussed through application to three scenarios. The system has been developed to provide maximum flexibility. A setup script assists the user in adapting to local conditions, allowing implementation of REFIR for any volcanic eruption site worldwide. REFIR is designed to be easily upgradable, allowing future extension of monitoring networks, learning from new events, and incorporation of new technologies and model improvements. This article gives an overview of the basic structure, models implemented, functionalities and the computational techniques of REFIR

SUSTAIN drilling at Surtsey volcano, Iceland, tracks hydrothermal and microbiological interactions in basalt 50 years after eruption

The 2017 Surtsey Underwater volcanic System for Thermophiles, Alteration processes and INnovative concretes (SUSTAIN) drilling project at Surtsey volcano, sponsored in part by the International Continental Scientific Drilling Program (ICDP), provides precise observations of the hydrothermal, geochemical, geomagnetic, and microbiological changes that have occurred in basaltic tephra and minor intrusions since explosive and effusive eruptions produced the oceanic island in 1963–1967. Two vertically cored boreholes, to 152 and 192 m below the surface, were drilled using filtered, UV-sterilized seawater circulating fluid to minimize microbial contamination. These cores parallel a 181 m core drilled in 1979. Introductory investigations indicate changes in material properties and whole-rock compositions over the past 38 years. A Surtsey subsurface observatory installed to 181 m in one vertical borehole holds incubation experiments that monitor in situ mineralogical and microbial alteration processes at 25–124 ∘C. A third cored borehole, inclined 55∘ in a 264∘ azimuthal direction to 354 m measured depth, provides further insights into eruption processes, including the presence of a diatreme that extends at least 100 m into the seafloor beneath the Surtur crater. The SUSTAIN project provides the first time-lapse drilling record into a very young oceanic basaltic volcano over a range of temperatures, 25–141 ∘C from 1979 to 2017, and subaerial and submarine hydrothermal fluid compositions. Rigorous procedures undertaken during the drilling operation protected the sensitive environment of the Surtsey Natural Preserve

Gradual caldera collapse at Bárdarbunga volcano, Iceland, regulated by lateral magma outflow

Large volcanic eruptions on Earth commonly occur with a collapse of the roof of a crustal magma reservoir, forming a caldera. Only a few such collapses occur per century, and the lack of detailed observations has obscured insight into the mechanical interplay between collapse and eruption.We usemultiparameter geophysical and geochemical data to show that the 110-squarekilometer and 65-meter-deep collapse of Bárdarbunga caldera in 2014-2015 was initiated through withdrawal of magma, and lateral migration through a 48-kilometers-long dike, from a 12-kilometers deep reservoir. Interaction between the pressure exerted by the subsiding reservoir roof and the physical properties of the subsurface flow path explain the gradual, nearexponential decline of both collapse rate and the intensity of the 180-day-long eruption.</p

Integration of SAR Data Into Monitoring of the 2014-2015 Holuhraun Eruption, Iceland: Contribution of the Icelandic Volcanoes Supersite and the FutureVolc Projects

We report how data from satellite and aerial synthetic aperture radar (SAR) observations were integrated into monitoring of the 2014–2015 Holuhraun eruption in the Bárðarbunga volcanic system, the largest effusive eruption in Iceland since the 1783–84 Laki eruption. A lava field formed in one of the most remote areas in Iceland, after the propagation of a ∼50 km-long dyke beneath the Vatnajökull ice cap, where the Bárðarbunga caldera is located. Due to the 6 month duration of the eruption, mainly in wintertime, daily monitoring was particularly challenging. During the eruption, the European volcanological project FutureVolc was ongoing, allowing collaboration of many European experts on volcano monitoring activities. Icelandic volcanoes are also a permanent Supersite within the Geohazard Supersites and Natural Laboratories (GSNL) initiative, with support from the Committee on Earth Observation Satellite (CEOS) in the form of a large collection of SAR images. SAR data were acquired by Cosmo-SkyMed (CSK) and TerraSAR-X (TSX) satellites and complemented by aerial SAR images. The large set of SAR satellite data significantly contributed to the daily monitoring during the unrest at Bárðarbunga caldera, the Holuhraun eruption and the year following the eruption. Detection of surface changes using both SAR amplitude and phase information was conducted throughout the whole duration of the volcano-tectonic event, and in the following months, to quantify and track the evolution of volcanic processes at Holuhraun and geothermal activity at Bárðarbunga volcano. Combination of SAR data with other data sets, e.g., satellite optical images and geodetic Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements, was essential for the evaluation of the volcanic hazard in the whole area. International collaboration within the FutureVolc project formed the basis for successful analyses and interpretation of the large SAR data set. Information was provided at Scientific Advisory Board meetings of the Icelandic Civil Protection and used in decision-making, as well as for supporting field-deployment and air-based surveys

Practising an explosive eruption in Iceland: outcomes from a European exercise

A 3 day exercise simulating unrest and a large explosive eruption at Katla volcano, Iceland, was conducted in January 2016. A large volume of simulated data based on a complex, but realistic eruption scenario was compiled in advance and then transmitted to exercise participants in near-real time over the course of the exercise. The scenario was designed to test the expertise and procedures of the local institutions in charge of warning and responding to volcanic hazards, namely the volcano observatory, national civil protection, and the local university-science sector, as well as their interactions with the European science community and the London Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre. This exercise was the first of this magnitude and scope in Iceland and has revealed many successful developments introduced since the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull and 2011 Grímsvötn eruptions. Following the exercise, 90% of participants said that they felt better prepared for a future eruption. As with any exercise, it also identified areas where further development is required and improvements can be made to procedures. Seven key recommendations are made to further develop capability and enhance the collaboration between the volcano observatory, volcano research institutions and civil protection authorities. These recommendations cover topics including notification of responders, authoritative messaging, data sharing and media interaction, and are more broadly applicable to volcanic institutions elsewhere. Lessons and suggestions for how to run a large-scale volcanic exercise are given and could be adopted by those planning to rehearse their own response procedures.This work was funded by the European Community’s FP7 Programme grant 308377 (Project FUTUREVOLC).Peer Reviewe

Quantifying the effect of wind on volcanic plumes: implications for plume modeling

The considerable effects that wind can have on estimates of mass eruption rates (MERs) in explosive eruptions based on volcanic plume height are well known but difficult to quantify rigorously. Many explicitly wind-affected plume models have the additional difficulty that they require the use of centerline heights of bent-over plumes, a parameter not easily obtained directly from observational data. We tested two such models by using the time series of varying plume heights and windspeeds of the 2010 eruption. The mapped fallout and photos taken during this eruption allow us to estimate the plume geometry and to empirically constrain input parameters for the two models tested. Two strategies are presented to correct the difference in maximum plume height and centerline height: (a) based on plume radius, and (b) by using the plume type parameter Π, which quantifies the relative influence of buoyancy and cross-wind on the plume dynamics, to discriminate weak, intermediate and strong plumes. The results indicate that it may be more appropriate to classify plumes as either wind-dominated, intermediate or buoyancy-dominated, where the relative effects of both wind and MER define the type. The analysis of the Eyjafjallajökull data shows that the MER estimates from both models are considerably improved when a plume-type dependent centerline-correction is applied. For one model, we varied the wind entrainment coefficient β. For this particular eruption, we find that the best value for β lies between 0.28 and 0.36, unlike previous suggestions that set this parameter to 0.50