The effect of environmental degradation and land use change on malaria re-emergence in south Venezuela: a spatiotemporal modelling study

Background: Malaria transmission is highly dependent on environmental conditions. The association between climatic variables and malaria transmission is well established, but the interaction between variations in climate and land use change, such as deforestation, is less well understood. Earth observation data provide a valuable and accessible resource to investigate these environment–malaria associations, in particular where little ground truth data are available. Progress towards malaria elimination in Latin America is being hindered by a surge of cases in Venezuela, a country that accounted for 53% of cases in the region in 2019. The country's economic and political crisis has fuelled economic migration to gold mining areas in the south, where extraction activities are expanding malaria vector habitats and sustaining disease transmission. Methods: In this spatiotemporal modelling study, we used multisource Earth observation data, including meteorological, land use change, and socioeconomic factors, and data on mining activity, to investigate how changes in the ecological landscape might have facilitated increases in the incidence of malaria in the past 20 years. We modelled spatiotemporal malaria case data for 1996–2016 using a Bayesian hierarchical mixed-model framework for Bolívar state in Venezuela, a malaria foci where approximately 60% of national cases occur annually. We examined how mining activities were associated with malaria hotspots and also considered the potential effects of climate variation, seasonality, and spatial dependency structures. Findings: We found that malaria risk was increased in mining hotspots, which were important in sustaining transmission in Bolívar state. We also found that the effect of temperature and rainfall variation differed depending on the level of deforestation in Bolívar, where the increased risk of malaria with temperature was greatest in areas that were more deforested. Interpretation: Our findings provide important evidence of environmentally driven re-emergence of malaria and highlight the advantages of using Earth observation data for understanding malaria dynamics in areas with sparse or incomplete data records

Synergies between environmental degradation and climate variation on malaria re-emergence in southern Venezuela: a spatiotemporal modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Environmental degradation facilitates the emergence of vector-borne diseases, such as malaria, through changes in the ecological landscape that increase human-vector contacts and that expand vector habitats. However, the modifying effects of environmental degradation on climate-disease relationships have not been well explored. Here, we investigate the rapid re-emergence of malaria in a transmission hotspot in southern Venezuela and explore the synergistic effects of environmental degradation, specifically gold-mining activity, and climate variation. METHODS: In this spatiotemporal modelling study of the 46 parishes of the state of Bolívar, southeast Venezuela, we used data from the Venezuelan Ministry of Health including population data and monthly cases of Plasmodium falciparum malaria and Plasmodium vivax malaria between 1996 and 2016. We estimated mean precipitation and temperature using the ERA5-Land dataset and used monthly anomalies in sea-surface temperature as an indicator of El Niño events between 1996 and 2016. The location of suspected mining sites in Bolívar in 2009, 2017, and 2018 were sourced from the Amazon Geo-Referenced Socio-Environmental Information Network. We estimated measures of cumulative forest loss and urban development by km2 using annual land cover maps from the European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative between 1996 and 2016. We modelled monthly cases of P falciparum and P vivax malaria using a Bayesian hierarchical mixed model framework. We quantified the variation explained by mining activity before exploring the modifying effects of environmental degradation on climate-malaria relationships. FINDINGS: We observed a 27% reduction in the additional unexplained spatial variation in incidence of P falciparum malaria and a 23% reduction in P vivax malaria when mining was included in our models. The effect of temperature on malaria was greater in high mining areas than low mining areas, and the P falciparum malaria effect size at temperatures of 26·5°C (2·4 cases per 1000 people [95% CI 1·78-3·06]) was twice as high as the effect in low mining areas (1 case per 1000 people [0·68-1·49]). INTERPRETATION: We show that mining activity in southern Venezuela is associated with hotspots of malaria transmission. Increased temperatures exacerbated malaria transmission in mining areas, highlighting the need to consider how environmental degradation modulates climate effect on disease risk, which is especially important in areas subjected to rapidly rising temperatures and land-use change globally. Our findings have implications for the progress towards malaria elimination in the Latin American region. Our findings are also important for effectively targeting timely treatment programmes and vector-control activities in mining areas with high rates of malaria transmission. FUNDING: Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council, Royal Society, US National Institutes of Health, and Global Challenges Research Fund. TRANSLATION: For the Spanish translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section

Effectiveness of Aedes-borne infectious disease control in Latin America and the Caribbean region: A scoping review

Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus are primary vectors of emerging or re-emerging arboviruses that threaten public health worldwide. Many efforts have been made to develop interventions to control these Aedes species populations. Still, countries in the Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) region struggle to create/design/develop sustainable and effective control strategies. This scoping review synthesises evidence concerning the effectiveness of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus prevention and control interventions performed in LAC (2000–2021). The findings can be used to evaluate, compare and develop more effective control strategies. Methodology The review is based on the methodology by Joanna Briggs Institute for conducting a scoping review. The MEDLINE (via PubMed and Web of Science), Cochrane Library, Scopus, EMBASE and ScienceDirect databases were used to search for articles. Grey literature was searched from governmental and non-governmental organisation websites. Four reviewers independently screened all titles and abstracts and full-text of the articles using the Rayyan web application, based on pre-defined eligibility criteria. Results A total of 122 publications were included in the review. Most studies focused on dengue virus infection and data on Ae. aegypti. Entomological data were mainly used to determine the intervention’s effectiveness. An integrated control intervention was the most commonly employed strategy in both regions. Biological control measures, environmental management, and health education campaigns on community participation achieved more sustainable results than an intervention where only a chemical control measure was used. Challenges to implementing interventions were insufficient financial support, resources, workforce, intersectoral collaboration and legislation. Conclusions Based on the synthesised data, an integrated vector (Aedes) management focused on community participation seems to be the most effective approach to mitigate Aedes-borne infectious diseases. Maintaining the approach’s effect remains challenging as it requires multisectoral and multi-disciplinary team engagement and active community participation. Future research needs to address the barriers to program implementation and maintenance as data on this topic is lacking

Malaria in Southern Venezuela: The hottest hotspot in Latin America.

Malaria elimination in Latin America is becoming an elusive goal. Malaria cases reached a historical ~1 million in 2017 and 2018, with Venezuela contributing 53% and 51% of those cases, respectively. Historically, malaria incidence in southern Venezuela has accounted for most of the country's total number of cases. The efficient deployment of disease prevention measures and prediction of disease spread to new regions requires an in-depth understanding of spatial heterogeneity on malaria transmission dynamics. Herein, we characterized the spatial epidemiology of malaria in southern Venezuela from 2007 through 2017 and described the extent to which malaria distribution has changed country-wide over the recent years. We found that disease transmission was focal and more prevalent in the southeast region of southern Venezuela where two persistent hotspots of Plasmodium vivax (76%) and P. falciparum (18%) accounted for ~60% of the total number of cases. Such hotspots are linked to deforestation as a consequence of illegal gold mining activities. Incidence has increased nearly tenfold over the last decade, showing an explosive epidemic growth due to a significant lack of disease control programs. Our findings highlight the importance of spatially oriented interventions to contain the ongoing malaria epidemic in Venezuela. This work also provides baseline epidemiological data to assess cross-border malaria dynamics and advocates for innovative control efforts in the Latin American region

First wave of COVID-19 in Venezuela:Epidemiological, clinical, and paraclinical characteristics of first cases

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has particularly affected countries with weakened health services in Latin America, where proper patient management could be a critical step to address the epidemic. In this study, we aimed to characterize and identify which epidemiological, clinical, and paraclinical risk factors defined COVID-19 infection from the first confirmed cases through the first epidemic wave in Venezuela. A retrospective analysis of consecutive suspected cases of COVID-19 admitted to a sentinel hospital was carried out, including 576 patient cases subsequently confirmed for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection. Of these, 162 (28.1%) patients met the definition criteria for severe/critical disease, and 414 (71.2%) were classified as mild/moderate disease. The mean age was 47 (SD 16) years, the majority of which were men (59.5%), and the most frequent comorbidity was arterial hypertension (23.3%). The most common symptoms included fever (88.7%), headache (65.6%), and dry cough (63.9%). Severe/critical disease affected mostly older males with low schooling (p < 0.001). Similarly, higher levels of glycemia, urea, aminotransferases, total bilirubin, lactate dehydrogenase, and erythrocyte sedimentation rate were observed in severe/critical disease patients compared to those with mild/moderate disease. Overall mortality was 7.6% (44/576), with 41.7% (28/68) dying in hospital. We identified risk factors related to COVID-19 infection, which could help healthcare providers take appropriate measures and prevent severe clinical outcomes. Our results suggest that the mortality registered by this disease in Venezuela during the first epidemic wave was underestimated. An increase in fatalities is expected to occur in the coming months unless measures that are more effective are implemented to mitigate the epidemic while the vaccination process is ongoing

Tele-entomology and tele-parasitology: A citizen science-based approach for surveillance and control of Chagas disease in Venezuela.

Chagas Disease (CD), a chronic infection caused by the Trypanosoma cruzi parasite, is a Neglected Tropical Disease endemic to Latin America. With a re-emergence in Venezuela during the past two decades, the spread of CD has proved susceptible to, and inhibitable by a digital, real-time surveillance system effectuated by Citizen Scientists in communities throughout the country. The #TraeTuChipo (#BringYourKissingBug) campaign implemented in January 2020, has served as such a strategy counting on community engagement to define the current ecological distribution of CD vectors despite the absence of a functional national surveillance program. This pilot campaign collected data through online surveys, social media platforms, and/or telephone text messages. A total of 79 triatomine bugs were reported from eighteen Venezuelan states; 67 bugs were identified as Panstrongylus geniculatus, 1 as Rhodnius pictipes, 1 as Triatoma dimidiata, and 10 as Triatoma maculata. We analyzed 8 triatomine feces samples spotted from 4 Panstrongylus geniculatus which were confirmed positive by qPCR for T. cruzi. Further molecular characterization of discrete typing units (DTUs), revealed that all samples contained TcI, the most highly diverse and broadly distributed strain of T. cruzi. Moreover, analysis of the mitochondrial 12S gene revealed Myotis keaysi, Homo sapiens, and Gallus gallus as the main triatomine feeding sources. This study highlights a novel Citizen Science approach which may help improve the surveillance systems for CD in endemic countries

Resurgence of Vaccine-Preventable Diseases in Venezuela as a Regional Public Health Threat in the Americas.

Venezuela's tumbling economy and authoritarian rule have precipitated an unprecedented humanitarian crisis. Hyperinflation rates now exceed 45,000%, and Venezuela's health system is in free fall. The country is experiencing a massive exodus of biomedical scientists and qualified healthcare professionals. Reemergence of arthropod-borne and vaccine-preventable diseases has sparked serious epidemics that also affect neighboring countries. In this article, we discuss the ongoing epidemics of measles and diphtheria in Venezuela and their disproportionate impact on indigenous populations. We also discuss the potential for reemergence of poliomyelitis and conclude that action to halt the spread of vaccine-preventable diseases within Venezuela is a matter of urgency for the country and the region. We further provide specific recommendations for addressing this crisis

Venezuela's humanitarian crisis, resurgence of vector-borne diseases, and implications for spillover in the region.

In the past 5-10 years, Venezuela has faced a severe economic crisis, precipitated by political instability and declining oil revenue. Public health provision has been affected particularly. In this Review, we assess the impact of Venezuela's health-care crisis on vector-borne diseases, and the spillover into neighbouring countries. Between 2000 and 2015, Venezuela witnessed a 359% increase in malaria cases, followed by a 71% increase in 2017 (411 586 cases) compared with 2016 (240 613). Neighbouring countries, such as Brazil, have reported an escalating trend of imported malaria cases from Venezuela, from 1538 in 2014 to 3129 in 2017. In Venezuela, active Chagas disease transmission has been reported, with seroprevalence in children (<10 years), estimated to be as high as 12·5% in one community tested (n=64). Dengue incidence increased by more than four times between 1990 and 2016. The estimated incidence of chikungunya during its epidemic peak is 6975 cases per 100 000 people and that of Zika virus is 2057 cases per 100 000 people. The re-emergence of many vector-borne diseases represents a public health crisis in Venezuela and has the possibility of severely undermining regional disease elimination efforts. National, regional, and global authorities must take action to address these worsening epidemics and prevent their expansion beyond Venezuelan borders

CMS physics technical design report : Addendum on high density QCD with heavy ions

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