Getting elections right? Measuring electoral integrity

Holding elections has become a global norm. Unfortunately, the integrity of elections varies strongly, ranging from “free and fair” elections with genuine contestation to “façade” elections marred by manipulation and fraud. Clearly, electoral integrity is a topic of increasing concern. Yet electoral integrity is notoriously difficult to measure, and hence taking stock of the available data is important. This article compares cross-national data sets measuring electoral integrity. The first part evaluates how the different data sets (a) conceptualize electoral integrity, (b) move from concepts to indicators, and (c) move from indicators to data. The second part analyses how different data sets code the same elections, seeking to explain the sources of disagreement about electoral integrity. The sample analysed comprises 746 elections in 95 third and fourth wave regimes from 1974 until 2009. I find that conceptual and measurement choices affect disagreement about election integrity, and also find that elections of lower integrity and post-conflict elections generate higher disagreement about election integrity. The article concludes with a discussion of results and suggestions for future research

Do Child Soldiers Influence UN Peacekeeping?

The use of child soldiers in conflicts has received increasing academic attention in recent years. This article examines post-conflict periods to see whether the use of child soldiers mobilizes United Nations peacekeeping operations (UN PKO) in the aftermath of a conflict. Taking into consideration how child soldiers affect conflict and how important their reintegration is to sustainable peace and post-conflict development, we analyse whether the presence of child soldiers in a civil war increases the likelihood of the presence of a PKO. We argue that the UN deems a conflict with child soldiers as a difficult case for conflict resolution, necessitating a response from the international community. This is in line with our empirical results confirming that the use of child soldiers significantly increases the likelihood of peacekeeping

The photometric evolution of dissolving star clusters: II. Realistic models. Colours and M/L ratios

Evolutionary synthesis models are the prime method to construct models of stellar populations, and to derive physical parameters from observations. One of the assumptions for such models so far has been the time-independence of the stellar mass function. However, dynamical simulations of star clusters in tidal fields have shown the mass function to change due to the preferential removal of low-mass stars from clusters. Here we combine the results from dynamical simulations of star clusters in tidal fields with our evolutionary synthesis code GALEV to extend the models by a new dimension: the total cluster disruption time. We reanalyse the mass function evolution found in N-body simulations of star clusters in tidal fields, parametrise it as a function of age and total cluster disruption time and use this parametrisation to compute GALEV models as a function of age, metallicity and the total cluster disruption time. We study the impact of cluster dissolution on the colour (generally, they become redder) and magnitude (they become fainter) evolution of star clusters, their mass-to-light ratios (off by a factor of ~2 -- 4 from standard predictions), and quantify the effect on the cluster age determination from integrated photometry (in most cases, clusters appear to be older than they are, between 20 and 200%). By comparing our model results with observed M/L ratios for old compact objects in the mass range 10^4.5 -- 10^8 Msun, we find a strong discrepancy for objects more massive than 10^7 Msun (higher M/L). This could be either caused by differences in the underlying stellar mass function or be an indication for the presence of dark matter in these objects. Less massive objects are well represented by the models. The models for a range of total cluster disruption times are available online. (shortened)Comment: MNRAS, in press, data are available at http://www.phys.uu.nl/~anders/data/SSP_varMF/, http://data.galev.org and soon also from CDS ... sorry for the sometimes strange layout, that's LaTe

The Influence of International Law on the International Movement of Persons

Many migration theories identify ‘the law’ as a significant constraint on the international movement of persons. While this constraint often operates through national migration legislation, this study examines the influence of international law in shaping contemporary patterns in the international movement of persons at the macro level. The analysis begins with an examination of the long-established power of a State to regulate cross-border movement of persons as an inherent attribute of State sovereignty, together with the accepted limitations on a State’s power to control entry and exit. Yet, international law reaches well beyond the movement of people across borders. The development of international human rights law has been a key constraint on state action in the United Nations era by also regulating the treatment of migrants within a State’s borders. The study considers how international law has responded to current migration issues, including: protection of migrant women and children; suppression of smuggling and trafficking of people; labour migration; and environmental migration. As in other areas of international society, there has been a proliferation of institutions through which international migration law is made and enforced. The most prominent among them are the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) and the International Organization for Migration (IOM), but the establishment of other entities with overlapping mandates has given rise to calls for a new international migration regime based on streamlined institutional arrangements. The study concludes that international law is an imperfect framework for regulating the international movement of persons because it has developed in a piecemeal fashion over a long time to deal with issues of concern at particular points in human history. Yet, despite its shortfalls, international law and its associated institutions unquestionably play a most important role in constraining and channeling state authority over the international movement of persons

Determinants of short and long term functional recovery after hospitalization for community-acquired pneumonia in the elderly: role of inflammatory markers

BACKGROUND: Hospitalization for older patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is associated with functional decline. Little is know about the relationship between inflammatory markers and determinants of functional status in this population. The aim of the study is to investigate the association between tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-α, C-reactive protein (CRP) and Activities of Daily Living, and to identify risk factors associated with one year mortality or hospital readmission. METHODS: 301 consecutive patients hospitalized for CAP (mean age 73.9 ± 5.3 years) in a University affiliated hospital over 18 month period were included. All patients were evaluated on admission to identify baseline demographic, microbiological, cognitive and functional characteristics. Serum levels for TNF-α and CRP were collected at the same time. Reassessment of functional status at discharge, and monthly thereafter till 3 months post discharge was obtained and compared with preadmission level to document loss or recovery of functionality. Outcome was assessed by the composite endpoint of hospital readmission or death from any cause up to one year post hospital discharge. RESULTS: 36% of patients developed functional decline at discharge and 11% had persistent functional impairment at 3 months. Serum TNF-α (odds ratio [OR] 1.12, 95% CI 1.08–1.15; p < 0.001) and the Charlson Index (OR = 1.39, 95% CI 1.14 to 1.71; p = 0.001) but not age, CRP, or cognitive status were independently associated with loss of functionality at the time of hospital discharge. Lack of recovery in functional status at 3 months was associated with impaired cognitive ability and preadmission comorbidities. In Cox regression analysis, persistent functional impairment at 3 months, impaired cognitive function, and the Charlson Index were highly predictive of one year hospital readmission or death. CONCLUSION: Serum TNF-α levels can be useful in determining patients at risk for functional impairment following hospitalization from CAP. Old patients with impaired cognitive function and preexisting comorbidities who exhibit delay in functional recovery at 3 months post discharge may be at high risk for hospital readmission and death. With the scarcity of resources, a future risk stratification system based on these findings might be proven helpful to target older patients who are likely to benefit from interventional strategies

Women and community sentences

Despite the increasing numbers of women given community sentences in the UK and in other jurisdictions in recent years, there has been relatively little research into women&rsquo;s experiences of these disposals. This is particularly surprising given what is known about the distinctive characteristics of women in conflict with the law and the gendered nature of pathways to crime. This article draws upon the experiences of women made subject to a range of community sentences to identify recurring themes including the complexity of women&rsquo;s problems, the significance of stigma, trauma and abuse, the importance to women of their supervisory relationships, the relevance of self-efficacy and the nature of barriers to compliance. The article considers the consequences of the discourses of &lsquo;penality&rsquo; when underpinned by ideological assumptions and expectations based on gender relations. The implications for the supervision of women in the community are considered, while acknowledging that community sanctions are unlikely in themselves to be capable of addressing broader issues that bring women into and retain them in the criminal justice system

Managing hyperemesis gravidarum: a multimodal challenge

Up to 90% of pregnant women experience nausea and vomiting. When prolonged or severe, this is known as hyperemesis gravidarum (HG), which can, in individual cases, be life threatening. In this article the aetiology, diagnosis and treatment strategies will be presented based on a selective literature review. Treatment strategies range from outpatient dietary advice and antiemetic drugs to hospitalization and intravenous (IV) fluid replacement in persistent or severe cases. Alternative methods, such as acupuncture, are not yet evidence based but sometimes have a therapeutic effect

Revisiting Folk Moral Realism

Moral realists believe that there are objective moral truths. According to one of the most prominent arguments in favour of this view, ordinary people experience morality as realist-seeming, and we have therefore prima facie reason to believe that realism is true. Some proponents of this argument have claimed that the hypothesis that ordinary people experience morality as realist-seeming is supported by psychological research on folk metaethics. While most recent research has been thought to contradict this claim, four prominent earlier studies (by Goodwin and Darley, Wainryb et al., Nichols, and Nichols and Folds-Bennett) indeed seem to suggest a tendency towards realism. My aim in this paper is to provide a detailed internal critique of these four studies. I argue that, once interpreted properly, all of them turn out in line with recent research. They suggest that most ordinary people experience morality as “pluralist-” rather than realist-seeming, i.e., that ordinary people have the intuition that realism is true with regard to some moral issues, but variants of anti-realism are true with regard to others. This result means that moral realism may be less well justified than commonly assumed

Global Protection and the Health Impact of Migration Interception

In the fourth article in a six-part PLoS Medicine series on Migration & Health, Zachary Steel and colleagues discuss the interception phase of migration and the specific health risks and policy needs associated with this phase

Introduction: Rethinking democratization and election observation

This book brings together studies on the broad theme of elections and democratization in Africa since roughly 1989. It is based on a seminar held in The Netherlands in February 1997, and includes chapters on both electoral processes, especially the role of foreign observers therein, and the historical and sociocultural backgrounds or contexts of democratization, elections and political legitimacy. Part 1 deals with elections and election observation in Africa in general (contributions by O. van Cranenburgh, S. Ellis, I. van Kessel, B. de Gaay Fortman). Part 2 consists of country studies (M. Doornbos on Uganda, D. Foeken en T. Dietz on Kenya, J. Abbink on Ethiopia, R. van Dijk on Malawi, R. Buijtenhuijs on Chad, and M.-F. Lange on Mali). Part 3 includes a chapter that reflects the discussions held at the seminar between observers, academics and policymakers in the Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs (W. van Binsbergen en J. Abbink); a review of Dutch policies on election observation in Africa during the period 1992-1997 (O. van Cranenburgh); and a discussion of the 1997 general elections in Kenya, where a new approach of election observation was introduced (M. Rutten)ASC – Publicaties niet-programma gebonde