Los modelos DSGE: una respuesta de la discusión macroeconómica.

Los modelos de Equilibrio General Dinámico Estocástico (DSGE), parten de la teoría de equilibrio general aplicado que tiene influencia en la macroeconomía contemporánea. Su metodología explica los fenómenos económicos agregados, derivados de los principios microeconómicos y, como elemento especial se tiene que no son vulnerables a la crítica de Lucas. Además, toman en cuenta que la economía se ve afectada por perturbaciones aleatorias. En esta dirección, su análisis de tipo empírico apunta hacia la búsqueda de los elementos generadores de las fluctuaciones económicas. En este trabajo se presenta una revisión de literatura sobre la discusión teórica de las fluctuaciones económicas, con el fin de reflexionar acerca del desarrollo de la macroeconomía moderna, culminando dicha reflexión con un una reseña de los DSGE.Models of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) are based on the theory of general equilibrium that influences contemporary macroeconomics. This instrument explains the aggregate economic phenomena derived from microeconomic principles, and, as a special characteristic, the DSGE models are not vulnerable to the Lucas critique. Also, those consider that the economy is affected by random shocks. In this sense, empirical analysis seeks for the sources of economic fluctuations. This paper presents an overview of the theoretical literature on economic fluctuations in order to reflect on the development of modern macroeconomics, the reflection culminating with an overview of the DSG

Una aplicación de un modelo neoclásico DSGE con política fiscal.

En este artículo se utiliza un modelo dinámico estocástico de equilibrio general (DSGE) neoclásico para evaluar el impacto de choques de oferta (productividad) y demanda (comercio externo) sobre el desempeño económico. Además, se analizan decisiones de política económica, en especial, el efecto del gasto público sobre la economía según las condiciones en que éste se realice. Los ejercicios realizados muestran que con un modelo de economía abierta, una política expansiva de gasto público incrementa en el corto plazo el empleo y el producto, pero se incurre en un costo futuro adicional, que parece sugerir un impacto superior al beneficio alcanzado en el corto plazo.We use a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model to evaluate the effect of supply (productivity) and demand (foreign trade) shocks on the economy. In addition, this paper analyzes the impact of policies, specifically the effect of public spending under given economic environments. Our results show that, in an open economy model, an expansionary policy of public spending increases employment and production in the short run, but carries an additional future cost, which appears to be greater than the short term benefit

Micropropagation of Cissus tiliacea, plant native of the South of the state of Mexico

Se micropropagó Cissus tiliacea, recurso fitogenético con potencial agronómico y farmacológico, en los medios de cultivo Murashige-Skoog (MS) y Lloyd y McCown (WPM). En ambos medios se generaron resultados similares para número de brotes, nudos, hojas y raíces adventicias, sólo existió diferencia significativa (p ≤ 0,05) en la formación de callo. Para la multiplicación in vitro se utilizó WPM adicionado con 0; 0,5; 1,0; 1,5 ó 2,0 mg L-1 de benciladenina (BA) y se emplearon tres tipos de segmentos nodales (basal, medio y apical). Las concentraciones de 0 y 0,5 mg L-1 de BA resultaron en un mayor tamaño y desarrollo del explante, además permitieron la formación de 1,2 a 1,6 raíces por explante. Las concentraciones de 1,5 y 2,0 mg L-1 de BA indujeron la formación de callo. No existió diferencia significativa en las variables evaluadas por efecto del tipo de segmento nodal establecido in vitro. En el enraizamiento, en el medio MS, se evaluaron tres tipos de auxinas: ácido naftalen-1-acético (ANA), ácido indol-3-butírico (AIB) y ácido indol- 3-acético (AIA) a 0,5 mg L-1; el mayor número de raíces secundarias y diámetro de la raíz principal fue inducido por ANA, sin embargo AIB indujo una mayor elongación de la raíz principal. Los resultados del presente trabajo sugieren que el cultivo in vitro de C. tiliacea es una alternativa para su conservación y multiplicación.Murashige-Skoog (MS) or Lloyd and McCown (WPM) medium were used for micropropagation of Cissus tiliacea, an herb plant with potential in agriculture and pharmacology; in both medium similar results for shoot regeneration, number of leaves, leaves nodes, and adventitious roots were observed; only formation of callus was influenced (p ≤ 0.05) by the medium. For in vitro multiplication, benzyl adenine (BA) was added to WPM at 0, 0.5, 1.0, 1.5 or 2.0 mg L-1 and we used three types of explants that is basal, medium an upper. BA at 0 and 0.5 mg L-1 resulted in higher size and well developed plantlets; moreover, those concentrations allowed 1.2 or 1.6 roots per vitro plant. Those explants cultured in 1.5 or 2.0 BA resulted in callus development. Type of explant did not influence the evaluated explants responses. Rooting was evaluated in MS adding naphthalene acetic acid (NAA), indol butiric acid (IBA) or indol acetic acid (IAA) at 0.5 mg L-1; the higher number of secondary roots and the diameter of the main root was induced by NAA, but IBA resulted in longer main roots. Present results suggested that micropropagation of C. tiliaceae might be and alternative for conservation and multiplication of this wild plant.Fil: Jiménez-Martínez, José Humberto. Universidad Autónoma del Estado de México. Facultad de Ciencias AgrícolasFil: Franco-Mora, Omar. Universidad Autónoma del Estado de México. Facultad de Ciencias AgrícolasFil: Gutiérrez-Martínez, María de Guadalupe. Universidad Autónoma del Estado de México. Facultad de Ciencias AgrícolasFil: González-Huerta, Andrés. Universidad Autónoma del Estado de México. Facultad de Ciencias AgrícolasFil: Castañeda-Vildózola, Álvaro. Universidad Autónoma del Estado de México. Facultad de Ciencias Agrícola

Excavaciones arqueológicas en el Frente de Guadalajara: una posición franquista en Abánades(1937-1939)

As part of a project on the archaeology of the Spanish Civil War and dictatorship in Spain, a Nationalist position was excavated in the village of Abánades (Guadalajara), which was in use between the March 1937 and the end of the war. The sector that we excavated comprised a trench, two dugouts, and a stone-and-concrete covered trench. All areas yielded many finds of the period. We present here the results of our excavations.Como parte de un proyecto de arqueología de la Guerra Civil y la dictadura en España, excavamos una trinchera franquista en el pueblo de Abánades (Guadalajara), que estuvo en uso entre marzo de 1937 y el final de la guerra. El sector que excavamos lo formaba una trinchera, dos abrigos y un parapeto aspillerado. Todas las áreas suministraron abundante material de la época. Presentamos aquí los resultados de nuestra intervención

Testing Ensembles for Intrusion Detection: On the Identification of Mutated Network Scans

In last decades there have been many proposals from the machine learning community in the intrusion detection field. One of the main problems that Intrusion Detection Systems (IDSs) - mainly anomaly-based ones - have to face are those attacks not previously seen (zero-day attacks). This paper proposes a mutation technique to test and evaluate the performance of several classifier ensembles incorporated to network-based IDSs when tackling the task of recognizing such attacks. The technique applies mutant operators that randomly modifies the features of the captured packets to generate situations that otherwise could not be provided to learning IDSs. As an example application for the proposed testing model, it has been specially applied to the identification of network scans and related mutations

Different approaches for the detection of SSH anomalous connections

The Secure Shell Protocol (SSH) is a well-known standard protocol, mainly used for remotely accessing shell accounts on Unix-like operating systems to perform administrative tasks. As a result, the SSH service has been an appealing target for attackers, aiming to guess root passwords performing dictionary attacks or to directly exploit the service itself. To identify such situations, this article addresses the detection of SSH anomalous connections from an intrusion detection perspective. The main idea is to compare several strategies and approaches for a better detection of SSH-based attacks. To test the classification performance of different classifiers and combinations of them, SSH data coming from a real-world honeynet are gathered and analysed. For comparison purposes and to draw conclusions about data collection, both packet-based and flow data are analysed. A wide range of classifiers and ensembles are applied to these data, as well as different validation schemes for better analysis of the obtained results. The high-rate classification results lead to positive conclusions about the identification of malicious SSH connections

Assessment of the Association of Health with the Liberalisation of Trade in Services under the World Trade Organisation

Background: The liberalisation of trade in services which began in 1995 under the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS) of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) has generated arguments for and against its potential health effects. Our goal was to explore the relationship between the liberalisation of services under the GATS and three health indicators – life expectancy (LE), under-5 mortality (U5M) and maternal mortality (MM) - since the WTO was established. Methods and Findings: This was a cross-sectional ecological study that explored the association in 2010 and 1995 between liberalisation and health (LE, U5M and MM), and between liberalisation and progress in health in the period 1995–2010, considering variables related to economic and social policies such as per capita income (GDP pc), public expenditure on health (PEH), and income inequality (Gini index). The units of observation and analysis were WTO member countries with data available for 2010 (n = 116), 1995 (n = 114) and 1995–2010 (n = 114). We conducted bivariate and multivariate linear regression analyses adjusted for GDP pc, Gini and PEH. Increased global liberalisation in services under the WTO was associated with better health in 2010 (U5M: 20.358 p,0.001; MM: 20.338 p = 0.001; LE: 0.247 p = 0.008) and in 1995, after adjusting for economic and social policy variables. For the period 1995–2010, progress in health was associated with income equality, PEH and per capita income. No association was found with global liberalisation in services. Conclusions: The favourable association in 2010 between health and liberalisation in services under the WTO seems to reflect a pre-WTO association observed in the 1995 data. However, this liberalisation did not appear as a factor associated with progress in health during 1995–2010. Income equality, health expenditure and per capita income were more powerful determinants of the health of populations.This study was funded by the Carlos III Health Institute and the Programme for Promotion of Biomedical and Health Sciences (http://www.isciii.es/) of the Spanish Ministry of Health and Consumer Affairs (Ref. PI060295)

Genetic and Immune Changes Associated with Disease Progression under the Pressure of Oncolytic Therapy in A Neuroblastoma Outlier Patient

Little is known about the effect of oncolytic adenovirotherapy on pediatric tumors. Here we present the clinical case of a refractory neuroblastoma that responded positively to Celyvir (ICOVIR-5 oncolytic adenovirus delivered by autologous mesenchymal stem cells) for several months. We analyzed samples during tumor evolution in order to identify molecular and mutational features that could explain the interactions between treatment and tumor and how the balance between both of them evolved. We identified a higher adaptive immune infiltration during stabilized disease compared to progression, and also a higher mutational rate and T-cell receptor (TCR) diversity during disease progression. Our results indicate an initial active role of the immune system controlling tumor growth during Celyvir therapy. The tumor eventually escaped from the control exerted by virotherapy through acquisition of resistance by the tumor microenvironment that exhausted the initial T cell response

Política monetária e acumulação de reservas em uma economia emergente: um modelo dsge para o caso colombiano

This article presents a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model in which we explicitly include the demand for money, the investment decisions, the role of financial intermediaries and the central bank balance sheet. The model allows the evaluation of the impact of various exogenous shocks on the economic activity and the price levels. Similarly, it allows to assess different forms of central bank intervention in the economy, either through the interest rate, or through the accumulation of international reserves. Special attention is dedicated to the basic parameters of the utility function of households (risk aversion, elasticity of labor supply and demand for money), to the proper formulation of the balance sheets of economic agents, and to the relationship between the central bank balance sheet and the money supply.Este artículo presenta un modelo de Equilibrio General Dinámico Estocástico (dsge) en el que se incluye explícitamente la demanda de dinero, las decisiones de inversión, el papel de los intermediarios financieros y el balance del Banco Central. El modelo permite la evaluación del impacto de diversos shocks exógenos sobre la actividad económica y los niveles de precios. También, permite evaluar diferentes formas de intervención del banco central en la economía, ya sea a través de la tasa de interés o mediante la acumulación de reservas internacionales. Se presta especial atención al parámetro básico de la función de utilidad de los hogares (aversión al riesgo, elasticidad de oferta laboral y demanda de dinero), a la formulación adecuada de los balances de los agentes económicos, y a la relación entre el balance del banco central y el suministro de dinero.Este artigo apresenta um modelo de Equilíbrio General Dinâmio Estocástico (dsge) no que se incluiu explicitamente a demanda de dinheiro, as decisões d investimento, o papel dos intermediários financeiros e o balanço do Banco Central. O modelo permite a avaliação do impacto de diversos choques exógenos sobre a atividade econômica e os níveis de preços. Também, permite avaliar diferentes formas de intervenção do banco central na economia, seja através da taxa de juros seja mediante a acumulação de reservas internacionais. Presta-se especial atenção ao parâmetro básico da função de utilidade dos lares (aversão ao risco, elasticidade de oferta laboral e demanda de dinheiro), à formulação adequada dos balanços dos agentes econômicos, e à relação entre o balanço do banco central e o fornecimento de dinheiro

The medieval town of Handoga (Djibouti): A report of the 2021 field season

The article presents the results of the first campaign carried out at the medieval site of Handoga (Djibouti) by the StateHorn project, based at the Institute of Heritage Sciences of the Spanish National Research Council. The aim of the campaign was to assess the site's potential in order to launch a long-term project focusing on the study of the town's urbanism and way of life. The campaign included a systematic survey of the site and the excavation of four test pits, which revealed evidence for two archaeological phases at Handoga. The results of the campaign suggest that Handoga was an important urban centre on the medieval routes linking the Gulf of Tadjoura with the interior of Africa, of which very little is known