Aspectos económicos de la evaluación del daño de incendios

La evaluación de los daños causados por incendios es un problema difícil porque los efectos físicos del incendio sobre el bosque y el flujo de producción de bienes y servicios del bosque, particularmente los productos no comerciales, son prácticamente desconocidos. El daño de los incendios al bosque incluye no sólo el valor de mercado de madera comerciable y el crecimiento joven destruido, sino también pérdidas intangibles directas e indirectas a valores de cuencas hidrográficas, valores económicos y sociales, diversidad biológica, y otros valores no comerciales. Por lo tanto, la tarea de mejorar la evaluación de daño de incendios debe ser multidisciplinaha. Una clave para la medición de daño es comprender los factores que influyen en el flujo de servicios de un activo (recurso) natural. Muchos de los bienes y servicios productos del bosque como el habitat de fauna silvestre, especies amenazadas y en peligro de extinción, la diversidad biológica, o vistas escénica no son vendidas en mercados organizados, por lo tanto no hay un mecanismo para asociar el valor de servicios a el valor de reemplazo del activo perdido. Implantar un sistema de evaluación de daño de incendios requiere identificar los bienes y servicios provistos por el recurso natural afectado; determinar cómo la cantidad y calidad de éstos se afectan; evaluar el valor de la reducción en cada flujo de bienes y servicios por la duración del efecto del incendio usando una tasa de descuento para convertir la reducción en el flujo de cada bien o servicio a precios actuales; y estimar los cambios en el flujo por la vida de los efectos. El valor resultante es una estimación del daño al recurso natural ocasionado por el incendio.Fire management is a difficult problem for managers because the physical effects of fire on the forest and the production stream of goods and senvices from the forest, particularly nonmarket outputs, is largely unknown. Forest fire damage includes not only the value of merchantable timber and young growth destroyed, but also direct indirect, and intangible losses to watershed values, social and economic values, biodiversity and other market and nonmarket values. Therefore, the task of improving fire damage assessment must be multidisciplinary. One key to damage measurement is understanding the factors that influence the flow ofservices from a natural asset Many of the forest stream of goods and services such as wildlife habitat, threatened and endangered species, biodiversity, or scenic vistas are not sold in organizad markets, so there is no mechanism to associate the value of services to replacement values of the assets lost. To implement a damage assessment system requires first, to identify the services provided by the natural resource affected. Second, to determine how the quantity and quality of those services are affected. Next place a value on the reduction in each service flow overthe duration of the fire effect using a discount rate to convert the reduction in each service flow into present dollars. Finally the flow changas are sum overthe life ofthe effects. The resulting value is an estimate of the damage to the natural resource caused by fire

Aspectos económicos de la evaluación del daño de incendios

La evaluación de los daños causados por incendios es un problema difícil porque los efectos físicos del incendio sobre el bosque y el flujo de producción de bienes y servicios del bosque, particularmente los productos no comerciales, son prácticamente desconocidos. El daño de los incendios al bosque incluye no sólo el valor de mercado de madera comerciable y el crecimiento joven destruido, sino también pérdidas intangibles directas e indirectas a valores de cuencas hidrográficas, valores económicos y sociales, diversidad biológica, y otros valores no comerciales. Por lo tanto, la tarea de mejorar la evaluación de daño de incendios debe ser multidisciplinaha. Una clave para la medición de daño es comprender los factores que influyen en el flujo de servicios de un activo (recurso) natural. Muchos de los bienes y servicios productos del bosque como el habitat de fauna silvestre, especies amenazadas y en peligro de extinción, la diversidad biológica, o vistas escénica no son vendidas en mercados organizados, por lo tanto no hay un mecanismo para asociar el valor de servicios a el valor de reemplazo del activo perdido. Implantar un sistema de evaluación de daño de incendios requiere identificar los bienes y servicios provistos por el recurso natural afectado; determinar cómo la cantidad y calidad de éstos se afectan; evaluar el valor de la reducción en cada flujo de bienes y servicios por la duración del efecto del incendio usando una tasa de descuento para convertir la reducción en el flujo de cada bien o servicio a precios actuales; y estimar los cambios en el flujo por la vida de los efectos. El valor resultante es una estimación del daño al recurso natural ocasionado por el incendio.Fire management is a difficult problem for managers because the physical effects of fire on the forest and the production stream of goods and senvices from the forest, particularly nonmarket outputs, is largely unknown. Forest fire damage includes not only the value of merchantable timber and young growth destroyed, but also direct indirect, and intangible losses to watershed values, social and economic values, biodiversity and other market and nonmarket values. Therefore, the task of improving fire damage assessment must be multidisciplinary. One key to damage measurement is understanding the factors that influence the flow ofservices from a natural asset Many of the forest stream of goods and services such as wildlife habitat, threatened and endangered species, biodiversity, or scenic vistas are not sold in organizad markets, so there is no mechanism to associate the value of services to replacement values of the assets lost. To implement a damage assessment system requires first, to identify the services provided by the natural resource affected. Second, to determine how the quantity and quality of those services are affected. Next place a value on the reduction in each service flow overthe duration of the fire effect using a discount rate to convert the reduction in each service flow into present dollars. Finally the flow changas are sum overthe life ofthe effects. The resulting value is an estimate of the damage to the natural resource caused by fire

Potential Effects of Climate Change on Fire Behavior, Economic Susceptibility and Suppression Costs in Mediterranean Ecosystems: Córdoba Province, Spain

The potentially large ecological, economic, and societal impacts of climate change makes it a significant problem of the 21st century. These consequences have led to tremendous development in climate change scenarios and new technologies to increase knowledge on the effect and efficiency of mitigation and adaptation measures. Large fires will occur at a higher rate than currently because of lower fuel moisture content resulting in a lower resistance to burning. This is also evidenced by more extreme fire behavior that contributes to higher economic impacts, suppression difficulties and suppression costs. The economic susceptibility concept integrates a set of economic valuation approaches for valuing timber and non-timber resources, considering the fire behavior, and as a consequence, the net value changes for each resource. Flame length increased by 4.6% to 15.69%, according to the different future climate scenarios. Climate change is expected to cause widespread changes to economic susceptibility and suppression costs because of higher flame length and fire intensity. Therefore, our outcomes show an increase in the economic susceptibility of Córdoba Province in the medium and long term (2041–2070) between 6.05% and 25.99%, respectively. In addition, we have found an increase between 65.67% and 86.73% in suppression costs in the last decade. The digital version of the economic susceptibility model using Geographic Information Systems improves its operational capabilities enhancing also its dynamism and simplicity to accept modifications and predictions revisions

Temporal patterns of active fire density and its relationship with a satellite fuel greenness index by vegetation type and region in Mexico during 2003-2014

Background: Understanding the temporal patterns of fire occurrence and their relationships with fuel dryness is key to sound fire management, especially under increasing global warming. At present, no system for prediction of fire occurrence risk based on fuel dryness conditions is available in Mexico. As part of an ongoing national-scale project, we developed an operational fire risk mapping tool based on satellite and weather information. Results: We demonstrated how differing monthly temporal trends in a fuel greenness index, dead ratio (DR), and fire density (FDI) can be clearly differentiated by vegetation type and region for the whole country, using MODIS satellite observations for the period 2003 to 2014. We tested linear and non-linear models, including temporal autocorrelation terms, for prediction of FDI from DR for a total of 28 combinations of vegetation types and regions. In addition, we developed seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models for forecasting DR values based on the last observed values. Most ARIMA models showed values of the adjusted coefficient of determination (R2 adj) above 0.7 to 0.8, suggesting potential to forecast fuel dryness and fire occurrence risk conditions. The best fitted models explained more than 70% of the observed FDI variation in the relation between monthly DR and fire density. Conclusion: These results suggest that there is potential for the DR index to be incorporated in future fire risk operational tools. However, some vegetation types and regions show lower correlations between DR and observed fire density, suggesting that other variables, such as distance and timing of agricultural burn, deserve attention in future studiesAntecedentes: Una adecuada planificación del manejo del fuego requiere de la comprensión de los patrones temporales de humedad del combustible y su influencia en el riesgo de incendio, particularmente bajo un escenario de calentamiento global. En la actualidad en México no existe ningún sistema operacional para la predicción del riesgo de incendio en base al grado de estrés hídrico de los combustibles. Un proyecto de investigación nacional actualmente en funcionamiento, tiene como objetivo el desarrollo de un sistema operacional de riesgo y peligro de incendio en base a información meteorológica y de satélite para México. Este estudio pertenece al citado proyecto Resultados: Se observaron en el país distintas tendencias temporales en un índice de estrés hídrico de los combustibles basado en imágenes MODIS, el índice “dead ratio” (DR), y en las tendencias temporales de un ìndice de densidad de incendios (FDI), en distintos tipos de vegetación y regiones del país. Se evaluaron varios modelos lineales y potenciales, incluyendo términos para la consideración de la autocorrelación temporal, para la predicción de la densidad de incendios a partir del índice DR para un total de 28 tipos de vegetación y regiones. Se desarrollaron además modelos estacionales autoregresivos de media móvil (ARIMA en inglés) para el pronóstico del índice DR a partir de los últimos valores observados. La mayoría de los modelos ARIMA desarrollados mostraron valores del coeficiente de determinación ajustado (R2 adj) por encima de 0.7 to 0.8, sugiriendo potencial para ser empleados para un pronóstico del estrés hídrico de los combustibles y las condiciones de riesgo de ocurrencia de incendio. Con respecto a los modelos que relacionan los valores mensuales de DR con FDI, la mayoría de ellos explicaron más del 70% de la variabilidad observada en FDI. Conclusiones: Los resultados sugirieron potencial del índice DR para ser incluido en futuras herramientas operacionales para determinar el riesgo de incendio. En algunos tipos de vegetación y regiones se obtuvieron correlaciones más reducidas entre el índice DR y los valores observados de densidad de incendios, sugiriendo que el papel de otras variables tales como la distancia y el patrón temporal de quemas agrícolas debería ser explorado en futuros estudiosFunding for this work was provided by CONAFOR-CONACYT Project 252620 “Development of a Fire Danger System for Mexico.” This work was also cofinanced by the Instituto Nacional de Investigación y Tecnología Agraria y Alimentaria and European Social Fund (Dr. E. Jiménez grant)S

Optimising the spatial planning of prescribed burns to achieve multiple objectives in a fire-dependent ecosystem

1. There is potential for negative consequences for the ecological integrity of fire-dependent ecosystems as a result of inappropriate fire regimes. This can occur when asset (property) protection is prioritised over conservation objectives in burn programs

The human dimension of fire regimes on Earth

Humans and their ancestors are unique in being a fire-making species, but ‘natural’ (i.e. independent of humans) fires have an ancient, geological history on Earth. Natural fires have influenced biological evolution and global biogeochemical cycles, making fire integral to the functioning of some biomes. Globally, debate rages about the impact on ecosystems of prehistoric human-set fires, with views ranging from catastrophic to negligible. Understanding of the diversity of human fire regimes on Earth in the past, present and future remains rudimentary. It remains uncertain how humans have caused a departure from ‘natural’ background levels that vary with climate change. Available evidence shows that modern humans can increase or decrease background levels of natural fire activity by clearing forests, promoting grazing, dispersing plants, altering ignition patterns and actively suppressing fires, thereby causing substantial ecosystem changes and loss of biodiversity. Some of these contemporary fire regimes cause substantial economic disruptions owing to the destruction of infrastructure, degradation of ecosystem services, loss of life, and smoke-related health effects. These episodic disasters help frame negative public attitudes towards landscape fires, despite the need for burning to sustain some ecosystems. Greenhouse gas-induced warming and changes in the hydrological cycle may increase the occurrence of large, severe fires, with potentially significant feedbacks to the Earth system. Improved understanding of human fire regimes demands: (1) better data on past and current human influences on fire regimes to enable global comparative analyses, (2) a greater understanding of different cultural traditions of landscape burning and their positive and negative social, economic and ecological effects, and (3) more realistic representations of anthropogenic fire in global vegetation and climate change models. We provide an historical framework to promote understanding of the development and diversification of fire regimes, covering the pre-human period, human domestication of fire, and the subsequent transition from subsistence agriculture to industrial economies. All of these phases still occur on Earth, providing opportunities for comparative research

Wildfires impact on the economic susceptibility of recreation activities: Application in a Mediterranean protected area

Development of many rural forestry areas depends strongly on tourism activities; therefore, it is critical to incorporate these activities in the decision-making process for the management and conservation efforts. Different from other market resources provided by forests, recreation activities provide benefits not only to forest owners but to all surrounding communities. Economic valuation of recreation activities requires using indirect valuation approaches like the travel cost method. Annual welfare estimates for the “Aracena y Picos de Aroche Natural Park” in southern Spain ranged from 25.30 € per recreationist for driving and travel time costs to 72.69 € per recreationist for these former costs plus associated incidental (food, lodging, etc.) costs. The annual value of this natural protected area was estimated at 3,656,609 € for the driving and travel time costs approach; and it was increased to 10,505,885.7 € for the total costs approach. Distributing the recreation welfare estimate proportionally is not reasonable as the visitation rate to different areas is different. Therefore, we use the individual recreational activities demand to distribute the estimated recreation value. Finally, we integrate the consumer surplus, the vegetation resilience and the potential fire behavior to estimate the fire recreation susceptibility. The fire susceptibility was increased by 58.25 million € from driving and travel time costs to total costs including incidental costs. Development of a socio-economic susceptibility framework using Geographic Information Systems provides an objective tool for budget allocation and prioritization of prevention activities and suppression actions during wildfires

A willingness-to-pay function for protecting acres of spotted owl habitat from fire.

Abstract A contingent valuation survey was used to estimate the economic value to California and New England residents of implementing a fire management plan to reduce acres of old growth forests that burn in California and Oregon. Using a random effects probit model to account for the panel nature of the data, the average willingness to pay to reduce catastrophic fire on 2570 acres was $56 per household. Since acreage of habitat protected is a statistically significant variable in the willingness-to-pay function, this function can be used by managers to evaluate the incremental benefits of different fire management plans that reduce additional acres burned. These benefits can serve as justification for funding of prescribed fire and fuel reduction programs to protect critical habitat of the Northern and California Spotted Owl