Bank Failure: Evidence from the Colombia Financial Crisis

This paper identifies the main bank specific determinants of bank failure during the financial crisis in Colombia using duration analysis. Using partial likelihood estimation, it shows that the process of failure of financial institutions during that period can be explained by differences in financial health and prudence across institutions. The capitalization ratio is the most significant indicator explaining bank failure. Increases in this ratio lead to a reduction in the hazard rate of failure at any given moment in time. Of special relevance, this ratio exhibits a non-linear component. Our results thus provide empirical support for existing regulatory practice. Other important variables explaining bank failure dynamics are bank's size and profitability.

Bank Market Power and Firm Finance: Evidence from Bank and Loan Level Data

We present new measures of market power for the banking industry in Colombia and estimate their effect on the cost of credit for non-financial firms. Our results suggest that bank competition increased during the 2006-2008 period even as concentration increased but decreased thereafter. Using a unique combination of loan, firm and bank-level data sets we are also able to show that banks loosing overall market power –measured by the average price-cost margin– decrease interest rates to small firms, but increase rates to firms with which they have the oldest credit relationships. This suggests (i) the existence of market power that is specific to the bank-firm re lationship (i .e., informa-tional lock-in and hold-up problems due to switching costs), and (ii) that size may be capturing other firm attributes such as observable risk, scale effects or implicit collateral

Mind the Gap: Computing Finance-Neutral Output Gaps in Latin-American Economies

We compute a measure of the finance-neutral potential output for Colombia, Chile and Mexico. Our methodology is based on Borio et al (2013, 2014) and incorporates the cycle of credit, house prices and the real exchange rate on the computation of the output gap. The literature on business cycles in emerging market economies, particularly papers focusing on Latin American economies, has highlighted the importance of including shocks to the interest rate in world capital markets together with financial frictions; terms of trade fluctuations; and a procyclical government spending process. Our results show that around the financial crises of the 1990s the finance-neutral output gap behaved differently than the traditional measures observed by policymakers. In particular, gaps are higher before crises and lower after them

Longitudinal association of changes in diet with changes in body weight and waist circumference in subjects at high cardiovascular risk: the PREDIMED trial

Background: Consumption of certain foods is associated with long-term weight gains and abdominal fat accumulation in healthy, middle-aged and young, non-obese participants. Whether the same foods might be associated with changes in adiposity in elderly population at high cardiovascular risk is less known. Objective: Using yearly repeated measurements of both food habits and adiposity parameters, we aimed to investigate how changes in the consumption of specific foods were associated with concurrent changes in weight or waist circumference (WC) in the PREDIMED trial. Design: We followed-up 7009 participants aged 55-70 years at high cardiovascular risk for a median time of 4.8 years. A validated 137-item semi-quantitative Food Frequency Questionnaire was used for dietary assessment with yearly repeated measurements. We longitudinally assessed associations between yearly changes in food consumption (serving/d) and concurrent changes in weight (kg) or WC (cm). Results: Yearly increments in weight were observed with increased consumption (kg per each additional increase in 1 serving/d) for refined grains (0.32 kg/serving/d), red meat (0.24), potatoes (0.23), alcoholic beverages (0.18), processed meat (0.15), white bread (0.07) and sweets (0.04); whereas inverse associations were detected for increased consumption of low-fat yogurt (- 0.18), and low-fat milk (- 0.06). Annual WC gain (cm per each additional increase in 1 serving/d) occurred with increased consumption of snacks, fast-foods and pre-prepared dishes (0.28), processed meat (0.18), alcoholic beverages (0.13), and sweets (0.08); whereas increased consumption of vegetables (- 0.23), and nuts (- 0.17), were associated with reductions in WC. Conclusions: In this assessment conducted in high-risk subjects using yearly repeated measurements of food habits and adiposity, some ultra-processed foods, refined carbohydrates (including white bread), potatoes, red meats and alcohol were associated with higher weight and WC gain, whereas increases in consumption of low-fat dairy products and plant foods were associated with less gain in weight and WC

American heart association's life simple 7 and the risk of atrial fibrillation in the PREDIMED study cohort

Background and aims The American Heart Association proposed 7 ideal cardiovascular health metrics (Life's Simple 7 [LS7]) namely, not smoking, body mass index <25 kg/m2, healthy diet, moderate physical activity ≥150 min/week, total blood cholesterol <200 mg/dL, blood pressure <120/80 mmHg and fasting blood glucose <100 mg/dL. Our objective was to assess the association between these LS7 metrics and the incidence of atrial fibrillation (AF). Methods and results A total of 6,479 participants of the PREDIMED study were included. We calculated the participants’ baseline LS7 index ranging 0–7 points to categorize them according to their adherence to these LS7 health metrics. Multivariable Cox regression models were used to estimate Hazard Ratios (HR) and their 95% Confidence Intervals (95% CI). After a median follow-up of 4.8 years, we identified 250 incident cases of AF. After adjusting for potential confounders, adherence to LS7 index was not associated with the incidence of AF (adjusted HR 0.90 [95% CI: 0.56–1.45] for highest vs. lowest LS7 categories). Body mass index <25 kg/m2 was the only health metric individually associated with a lower risk of AF (HR 0.36 [95% CI: 0.16–0.78]). Conclusions In a high cardiovascular risk Spanish population, adherence to American Heart Association's LS7 metrics was not associated with the risk of incident AF

The Effect of a Mediterranean Diet on the Incidence of Cataract Surgery

Background: Cataract is a leading cause of vision impairment worldwide, and surgery is the only available treatment. The process that initiates lens opacification is dependent on the oxidative stress experienced by the lens components. A healthy overall dietary pattern, with the potential to reduce oxidative stress, has been suggested as a means to decrease the risk of developing cataract. We aimed to investigate the hypothesis that an intervention with a Mediterranean diet (MedDiet) rather than a low-fat diet could decrease the incidence of cataract surgery in elderly subjects. Methods: We included 5802 men and women (age range: 55–80 years) from the Prevención con Dieta Mediterránea study (multicenter, parallel-group, randomized controlled clinical trial) who had not undergone cataract surgery. They were randomly assigned to one of three intervention groups: (1) a MedDiet enriched with extra-virgin olive oil (EVOO) (n = 1998); (2) a MedDiet enriched with nuts (n = 1914), and a control group recommended to follow a low-fat diet (n = 1890). The incidence of cataract surgery was recorded yearly during follow-up clinical evaluations. Primary analyses were performed on an intention-to-treat basis. Cox regression analyses were used to assess the relationship between the nutritional intervention and the incidence of cataract surgery. Results: During a follow-up period of 7.0 years (mean follow-up period: 5.7 years; median: 5.9 years), 559 subjects underwent cataract surgery. Two hundred and six participants from the MedDiet + EVOO group, 174 from the MedDiet + Nuts group, and 179 from the control group underwent cataract surgery. We did not observe a reduction in the incidence of cataract surgery in the MedDiet groups compared to the control group. The multivariable adjusted hazard ratios were 1.03 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.84–1.26, p = 0.79) for the control group versus the MedDiet + EVOO group and 1.06 (95% CI: 0.86–1.31, p = 0.58) for the control group versus the MedDiet + Nuts group. Conclusions: To our knowledge, this is the first large randomized trial assessing the role of a MedDiet on the incidence of cataract surgery. Our results showed that the incidence of cataract surgery was similar in the MedDiet with EVOO, MedDiet with nuts, and low-fat diet groups. Further studies are necessary to investigate whether a MedDiet could have a preventive role in cataract surgery

Primary prevention of cardiovascular disease with a Mediterranean diet

BACKGROUND: Observational cohort studies and a secondary prevention trial have shown an inverse association between adherence to the Mediterranean diet and cardiovascular risk. We conducted a randomized trial of this diet pattern for the primary prevention of cardiovascular events. METHODS: In a multicenter trial in Spain, we randomly assigned participants who were at high cardiovascular risk, but with no cardiovascular disease at enrollment, to one of three diets: a Mediterranean diet supplemented with extra-virgin olive oil, a Mediterranean diet supplemented with mixed nuts, or a control diet (advice to reduce dietary fat). Participants received quarterly individual and group educational sessions and, depending on group assignment, free provision of extra-virgin olive oil, mixed nuts, or small nonfood gifts. The primary end point was the rate of major cardiovascular events (myocardial infarction, stroke, or death from cardiovascular causes). On the basis of the results of an interim analysis, the trial was stopped after a median follow-up of 4.8 years. RESULTS: A total of 7447 persons were enrolled (age range, 55 to 80 years); 57% were women. The two Mediterranean-diet groups had good adherence to the intervention, according to self-reported intake and biomarker analyses. A primary end-point event occurred in 288 participants. The multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios were 0.70 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.54 to 0.92) and 0.72 (95% CI, 0.54 to 0.96) for the group assigned to a Mediterranean diet with extra-virgin olive oil (96 events) and the group assigned to a Mediterranean diet with nuts (83 events), respectively, versus the control group (109 events). No diet-related adverse effects were reported. CONCLUSIONS: Among persons at high cardiovascular risk, a Mediterranean diet supplemented with extra-virgin olive oil or nuts reduced the incidence of major cardiovascular events

Latent Tuberculosis Infection in a Migrant Agricultural Community in Baja California, Mexico

The objectives were to estimate the prevalence and identify correlates of latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) among residents of a migrant agricultural community in San Quintín, Baja-California, Mexico. Residents completed a questionnaire and had their blood tested for LTBI using the QuantiFERON®-TB Gold In-Tube (QFT) assay. Among 133 participants, 39.8% (95% CI 31.5–48.7%) tested QFT-positive. Having crossed the U.S.-Mexican border since living in San Quintin (P = 0.03), consuming unpasteurized milk (P = 0.02) and receiving health care at IMSS-Oportunidades in the last 6 months (P = 0.03) were independently associated with QFT-positivity. High LTBI prevalence in this community emphasizes the need for TB education and LTBI treatment for its residents. Association with travel to the U.S. suggests the potential for TB transmission across borders. Higher QFT-positivity among those consuming unpasteurized milk could indicate M. bovis infection, previously reported among Mexican migrants living in U.S. border cities

A Novel Therapy for Melanoma Developed in Mice: Transformation of Melanoma into Dendritic Cells with Listeria monocytogenes

Listeria monocytogenes is a gram-positive bacteria and human pathogen widely used in cancer immunotherapy because of its capacity to induce a specific cytotoxic T cell response in tumours. This bacterial pathogen strongly induces innate and specific immunity with the potential to overcome tumour induced tolerance and weak immunogenicity. Here, we propose a Listeria based vaccination for melanoma based in its tropism for these tumour cells and its ability to transform in vitro and in vivo melanoma cells into matured and activated dendritic cells with competent microbicidal and antigen processing abilities. This Listeria based vaccination using low doses of the pathogen caused melanoma regression by apoptosis as well as bacterial clearance. Vaccination efficacy is LLO dependent and implies the reduction of LLO-specific CD4+ T cell responses, strong stimulation of innate pro-inflammatory immune cells and a prevalence of LLO-specific CD8+ T cells involved in tumour regression and Listeria elimination. These results support the use of low doses of pathogenic Listeria as safe melanoma therapeutic vaccines that do not require antibiotics for bacterial removal

Novel association of the obesity risk-allele near Fas Apoptotic Inhibitory Molecule 2 (FAIM2) gene with heart rate and study of its effects on myocardial infarction in diabetic participants of the PREDIMED trial

BACKGROUND: The Fas apoptotic pathway has been implicated in type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease. Although a polymorphism (rs7138803; G > A) near the Fas apoptotic inhibitory molecule 2 (FAIM2) locus has been related to obesity, its association with other cardiovascular risk factors and disease remains uncertain. METHODS: We analyzed the association between the FAIM2-rs7138803 polymorphism and obesity, blood pressure and heart rate in 7,161 participants (48.3% with type 2 diabetes) in the PREDIMED study at baseline. We also explored gene-diet interactions with adherence to the Mediterranean diet (MedDiet) and examined the effects of the polymorphism on cardiovascular disease incidence per diabetes status after a median 4.8-year dietary intervention (MedDiet versus control group) follow-up. RESULTS: We replicated the association between the FAIM2-rs7138803 polymorphism and greater obesity risk (OR: 1.08; 95% CI: 1.01-1.16; P = 0.011; per-A allele). Moreover, we detected novel associations of this polymorphism with higher diastolic blood pressure (DBP) and heart rate at baseline (B = 1.07; 95% CI: 0.97-1.28 bmp in AA vs G-carriers for the whole population), that remained statistically significant even after adjustment for body mass index (P = 0.012) and correction for multiple comparisons. This association was greater and statistically significant in type-2 diabetic subjects (B = 1.44: 95% CI: 0.23-2.56 bmp; P = 0.010 for AA versus G-carriers). Likewise, these findings were also observed longitudinally over 5-year follow-up. Nevertheless, we found no statistically significant gene-diet interactions with MedDiet for this trait. On analyzing myocardial infarction risk, we detected a nominally significant (P = 0.041) association in type-2 diabetic subjects (HR: 1.86; 95% CI:1.03-3.37 for AA versus G-carriers), although this association did not remain statistically significant following correction for multiple comparisons. CONCLUSIONS: We confirmed the FAIM2-rs7138803 relationship with obesity and identified novel and consistent associations with heart rate in particular in type 2 diabetic subjects. Furthermore, our results suggest a possible association of this polymorphism with higher myocardial infarction risk in type-2 diabetic subjects, although this result needs to be replicated as it could represent a false positive