Higher-Order Hierarchical Models for the Free Vibration Analysis of Thin-Walled Beams

This paper addresses a free vibration analysis of thin-walled isotropic beams via higher-order refined theories. The unknown kinematic variables are approximated along the beam cross section as a N-order polynomial expansion, where N is a free parameter of the formulation. The governing equations are derived via the dynamic version of the Principle of Virtual Displacements and are written in a unified form in terms of a “fundamental nucleus.” This latter does not depend upon order of expansion of the theory over the cross section. Analyses are carried out through a closed form, Navier-type solution. Simply supported, slender, and short beams are investigated. Besides “classical” modes (such as bending and torsion), several higher modes are investigated. Results are assessed toward three-dimensional finite element solutions. The numerical investigation shows that the proposed Unified Formulation yields accurate results as long as the appropriate approximation order is considered. The accuracy of the solution depends upon the geometrical parameters of the beam

Seeking for the rational basis of the median model: the optimal combination of multi-model ensemble results

International audienceIn this paper we present an approach for the statistical analysis of multi-model ensemble results. The models considered here are operational long-range transport and dispersion models, also used for the real-time simulation of pollutant dispersion or the accidental release of radioactive nuclides. We first introduce the theoretical basis (with its roots sinking into the Bayes theorem) and then apply this approach to the analysis of model results obtained during the ETEX-1 exercise. We recover some interesting results, supporting the heuristic approach called "median model", originally introduced in Galmarini et al. (2004a, b). This approach also provides a way to systematically reduce (and quantify) model uncertainties, thus supporting the decision-making process and/or regulatory-purpose activities in a very effective manner

Caribbean Plate margin evolution : constraints and current problems

Oceanic crust was generated at multiple spreading centres during the Jurassic and Early Cretaceous, forming a "proto-Caribbean" oceanic domain. During the Cretaceous, part of that crustal domain thickened into an oceanic plateau, of petrologic Mid-Ocean Ridge (MOR) to Ocean Island Basalt (OIB) affinity. Simultaneously, the South and North American continental plates developed rifting and tholeiitic magmatism in the Middle America region (Venezuela and Cuba). The rifting created space for the proto-Caribbean oceanic domain. Petrological and regional correlations suggest that, beginning in the Cretaceous, the proto-Caribbean domain was involved into two main stages of subduction, referred to as first and second "eo-Caribbean" phases. Each phase is characterized by oblique convergence. The older (mid-Cretaceous) stage, involved in subduction (probably eastward dipping) of thin proto-Caribbean lithosphere, with generation of Island Arc Tholeiitic (IAT) and Calc-Alkaline (CA) magmatism, accompanied by high pressure - low temperature (HP - LT) metamorphic effects, and formation of arc units and ophiolitic melanges (Guatemala, Cuba, Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, in the northern margin; Venezuela in the southern). The Late Cretaceous second stage consisted of westward dipping intra-oceanic subduction; it is recorded by tonalitic arc magmatism related to the onset of the Aves - Lesser Antilles arc system. Since the Late Cretaceous, the inner undeformed portions of the Caribbean oceanic plateau (i.e. the Colombian and Venezuelan Basins) were trapped east of the Pacific subduction of the Chortis, Chorotega and Choco blocks, ultimately building the Central American Isthmus. From Tertiary to Present, continuous eastward movement of the Caribbean Plate with respect to the Americas, gave rise to transpression along both the northern and southern margins, marked by scattered and dismembered ophiolitic terranes

Seeking for the Rational Basis of the Median Model: The Optimal Combination of Multi-model ENSEMBLE Results

In this paper we present an approach for the statistical analysis of multi-model ENSEMBLE results. The models considered here are operational long-range transport and dispersion models, also used for the real-time simulation of pollutant dispersion or the accidental release 5 of radioactive nuclides. We first introduce the theoretical basis (with its roots sinking into the Bayes theorem) and then apply this approach to the analysis of model results obtained during the ETEX-1 exercise. We recover some interesting results, supporting the heuristic approach called ‘median model’, originally introduced in Galmarini et al., 2004 a,b. This approach also provides a way to systematically reduce (and quantify) model uncertainties, thus supporting the decision-making process and/or regulatory-purpose activities in a very effective manner.JRC.H.4-Transport and air qualit

evolutionary frequency response function of linear systems subjected to earthquake accelerograms using the adaptive chirplet decomposition

Abstract In seismic engineering, in order to reproduce the typical characteristics of real earthquakes ground-motion time history, several approaches has been proposed in literature. In this study the adaptive chirplet signal decomposition is adopted to analyze recorded accelerograms in order of defining appropriately evolutionary power spectra [1]. The present study focuses on a method to evaluate in closed-form the evolutionary frequency response function, that is required to evaluate the statistics of the response of linear structural systems [2], once the adaptive chirplet signal decomposition is adopted

Local-Scale Weather Forecasts over a Complex Terrain in an Early Warning Framework: Performance Analysis for the Val d'Agri (Southern Italy) Case Study

Forecasting applications based on hourly meteorological predictions for weather variables are nowadays used in energy market operations, planning of gas and power supply, and renewable energy, among others. Available meteorological and climatological data, as well as critical thresholds of rainfall, may also have a key role in the hazard classification, related to slope instabilities of pipelines and critical infrastructures along routes. The present study concerns the performance of a weather forecast model in the framework of an early warning system (EWS) application, which supports the integrity management of oil and gas pipelines. This EWS has been applied on to a specific area: the Val d'Agri basin in the Basilicata region of Southern Italy, which is extensively affected by several landslides and floods. The hourly precipitation forecasts are provided by a dedicated meteorological model, the KALM-HD, using two different horizontal resolutions, 1.25 and 5 km, to analyze possible influences of the mesh grid size as well. On this area, several weather stations were specifically deployed to obtain observed data in a region where hydrogeological hazards are relevant for asset management. A comparison among observations and the KALM-HD scaled forecasts on six of these weather stations is presented to assess the model performance. Besides, precipitation, temperature, and wind speed are evaluated as well. The forecasting analysis is performed considering two years of data both on an overall and seasonal basis. Results show that the KALM-HD performs well with the 1.25 km grid, particularly on temperature and wind speed variables. Since weather stations can be gathered in two main sets depending on their positions, differences arise in the forecast quality of these two groups, related to orography and thermal effects, whose detection is difficult in the typical narrow valleys characterizing the area of study. This issue prevalently influences temperatures and local winds, which, these latter, are generally underestimated, while precipitation is mainly driven by synoptic circulation and its interaction with mesoscale meteorological features

Effects of Model Horizontal Grid Resolution on Short- and Medium-Term Daily Temperature Forecasts for Energy Consumption Application in European Cities

A short-term forecast of energy consumption is affected by different factors related to the demand in residential, commercial, thermoelectric, and industrial sectors. This demand can be strongly constrained by weather variables, especially temperatures, whose forecast may be very useful to predict the balances between supply and demand, minimizing the risk of price volatility. Energy companies use the relationship between meteorological forecast output and energy request to provide an effective scheduling of national gas and power grids and reduce operational costs in critical periods. This work reports a comparison analysis for short- and medium-term daily temperature forecasts during the period 2013-2014 by using the weather model e-kmf™ (eni-kassandra meteo forecast), currently adopted in gas and power applications where meteorological output has a key role. This weather forecast system uses different models and initial data to develop probabilistic predictions from a perspective of eleven days ahead. In particular, a set of model runs with horizontal grid spacing of 5.5, 8, 13, and 18 km with the same domain size are undertaken to assess the sensitivity of temperature to horizontal resolutions. A nonlinear Kalman filter has been also applied to postprocess forecasted data in eight European cities (Milano, Roma, Torino, Napoli, Munich, Paris, Brussels, and London). Filtered forecasts over these cities have been compared to local observations taken from SYNOP (surface synoptic observations) and METAR (meteorological Aerodrome Report) stations. Skill scores of performance have been used to generally assess the forecast reliability up to day +11. In order to understand the sensitivity to the horizontal resolution, investigations have been carried out even during four specific periods of two weeks with stable and unstable weather conditions