Intra-urban risk assessment of occupational injuries and illnesses associated with current and projected climate: Evidence from three largest Australian cities

Available online 5 April 2023BACKGROUND: Increased risk of occupational injuries and illnesses (OI) is associated with ambient temperature. However, most studies have reported the average impacts within cities, states, or provinces at broader scales. METHODS: We assessed the intra-urban risk of OI associated with ambient temperature in three Australian cities at statistical area level 3 (SA3). We collected daily workers' compensation claims data and gridded meteorological data from July 1, 2005, to June 30, 2018. Heat index was used as the primary temperature metric. We performed a two-stage time series analysis: we generated location-specific estimates using distributed lag nonlinear models (DLNMs) and estimated the cumulative effects with multivariate meta-analysis. The risk was estimated at moderate heat (90th percentile) and extreme heat (99th percentile). Subgroup analyses were conducted to identify vulnerable groups of workers. Further, the OI risk in the future was estimated for two projected periods: 2016-2045 and 2036-2065. RESULTS: The cumulative risk of OI was 3.4% in Greater Brisbane, 9.5% in Greater Melbourne, and 8.9% in Greater Sydney at extreme heat. The western inland regions in Greater Brisbane (17.4%) and Greater Sydney (32.3%) had higher risk of OI for younger workers, workers in outdoor and indoor industries, and workers reporting injury claims. The urbanized SA3 regions posed a higher risk (19.3%) for workers in Greater Melbourne. The regions were generally at high risk for young workers and illness-related claims. The projected risk of OI increased with time in climate change scenarios. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides a comprehensive spatial profile of OI risk associated with hot weather conditions across three cities in Australia. Risk assessment at the intra-urban level revealed strong spatial patterns in OI risk distribution due to heat exposure. These findings provide much-needed scientific evidence for work, health, and safety regulators, industries, unions, and workers to design and implement location-specific preventative measures.Syeda Hira Fatima, Paul Rothmore, Lynne C. Giles, Peng B

A comparison of survival models for prediction of eight-year revision risk following total knee and hip arthroplasty

Background: There is increasing interest in the development and use of clinical prediction models, but a lack of evidence-supported guidance on the merits of diferent modelling approaches. This is especially true for time-to event outcomes, where limited studies have compared the vast number of modelling approaches available. This study compares prediction accuracy and variable importance measures for four modelling approaches in prediction of time-to-revision surgery following total knee arthroplasty (TKA) and total hip arthroplasty (THA). Methods: The study included 321,945 TKA and 151,113 THA procedures performed between 1 January 2003 and 31 December 2017. Accuracy of the Cox model, Weibull parametric model, fexible parametric model, and random survival forest were compared, with patient age, sex, comorbidities, and prosthesis characteristics considered as predictors. Prediction accuracy was assessed using the Index of Prediction Accuracy (IPA), c-index, and smoothed calibration curves. Variable importance rankings from the Cox model and random survival forest were also compared Results: Overall, the Cox and fexible parametric survival models performed best for prediction of both TKA (integrated IPA 0.056 (95% CI [0.054, 0.057]) compared to 0.054 (95% CI [0.053, 0.056]) for the Weibull parametric model), and THA revision. (0.029 95% CI [0.027, 0.030] compared to 0.027 (95% CI [0.025, 0.028]) for the random survival forest). The c-index showed broadly similar discrimination between all modelling approaches. Models were generally well calibrated, but random survival forest underftted the predicted risk of TKA revision compared to regression approaches. The most important predictors of revision were similar in the Cox model and random survival forest for TKA (age, opioid use, and patella resurfacing) and THA (femoral cement, depression, and opioid use). Conclusion: The Cox and fexible parametric models had superior overall performance, although all approaches performed similarly. Notably, this study showed no beneft of a tuned random survival forest over regression models in this setting.Alana R. Cuthbert, Lynne C. Giles, Gary Glonek, Lisa M. Kalisch Ellett, and Nicole L. Prat

Safety and protective effects of maternal influenza vaccination on pregnancy and birth outcomes: A prospective cohort study

Background Our study aimed to assess the safety and protective effect of maternal influenza vaccination on pregnancy and birth outcomes. Methods The study population comprised 1253 healthy nulliparous pregnant women in South Australia between 2015 and 2018. Participants were followed prospectively, with vaccination status (confirmed by medical records), pregnancy, and birth outcome data collected by midwives. Adjusted relative risks (aRRs) and adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) were estimated accounting for time-varying vaccine exposure and temporal nature of each outcome. Findings Maternal influenza vaccination (48%, 603 of 1253) reduced the risk for pre-delivery hospitalisation with influenza like illness (aHR 0•61; 95% CI 0•39, 0•97). Maternal influenza vaccination was not associated with spontaneous abortion (aHR 0•42, 95% CI 0•12, 1•45), chorioamnionitis (aRR 0•78, 95% CI, 0•32, 1•88), gestational hypertension (aHR 0•78, 95% CI 0•47, 1•29), pre-eclampsia (aHR 0.84, 95% CI 0•54, 1•27), gestational diabetes (aHR 1•16, 95% CI 0•82, 1•66) nor preterm birth (aHR 0•94, 95% CI 0•59, 1•49). No associations between antenatal influenza vaccination and congenital anomalies, admission to the neonatal care unit, low Apgar scores, and mechanical ventilation were observed. Results were not materially changed after adjustment for pertussis vaccination. We observed a protective effect of maternal influenza vaccination on low birth weight (aHR 0•46, 95% CI 0•23, 0•94) and a marginal protective effect on small for gestational age births (aHR 0•65, 95% CI 0•40, 1•04) during periods of high influenza activity. Interpretation These results support the safety of maternal influenza vaccination and suggest a protective effect in reducing the rates of low birthweight and small for gestational age births. Funding There was no funding for this study.Hassen Mohammed, Claire T.Roberts, Luke E. Grzeskowiak, Lynne C. Giles, Gustaaf A. Dekker ... et al

Evaluating the effectiveness of the 4CMenB vaccine against invasive meningococcal disease and gonorrhoea in an infant, child and adolescent program: protocol

Invasive meningococcal disease causes significant morbidity and mortality worldwide, with serogroup B being one of the predominant serogroups in Australia for many years. The South Australian (SA) State Government recently funded the introduction of a 4CMenB vaccination program for infants, children and adolescents. In addition to protecting against invasive meningococcal disease, emerging evidence suggests the 4CMenB vaccine may also be effective against gonorrhoea due to genetic similarities between Neisseria meningitidis and Neisseria gonorrhoeae. The proposed project aims to evaluate the effectiveness of the SA 4CMenB vaccination program against invasive meningococcal disease and gonorrhoea through a combination of observational studies using routine surveillance and research data. The main methodological approaches involve an interrupted time series regression model, screening, and case-control analyses with different sets of controls to estimate vaccine impact and effectiveness. These analyses are designed to minimize potential biases inherent in all observational studies and to provide critical data on the effectiveness of the 4CMenB vaccine against two diseases of major global public health concern.Helen S. Marshall, Prabha H. Andraweera, Bing Wang, Mark McMillan, Ann P. Koehler, Noel Lally ... et al

Occupational exposures to solvents and metals are associated with fixed airflow obstruction

peer-reviewedOur study is the first to investigate the associations between exposures to solvents and metals using lifetime work history calendars and fixed airflow obstruction (AO). We have shown that increasing cumulative exposure-unit years to chlorinated solvents is associated with fixed AO. We found that women were at increased risk of fixed AO with increasing cumulative exposed-unit-years to chlorinated solvents but not men

Distinct gut virome profile of pregnant women with type 1 diabetes in the ENDIA study

Background:The importance of gut bacteria in human physiology, immune regulation, and disease pathogenesis is well established. In contrast, the composition and dynamics of the gut virome are largely unknown; particularly lacking are studies in pregnancy. We used comprehensive virome capture sequencing to characterize the gut virome of pregnant women with and without type 1 diabetes (T1D), longitudinally followed in the Environmental Determinants of Islet Autoimmunity study. Methods:In total, 61 pregnant women (35 with T1D and 26 without) from Australia were examined. Nucleic acid was extracted from serial fecal specimens obtained at prenatal visits, and viral genomes were sequenced by virome capture enrichment. The frequency, richness, and abundance of viruses were compared between women with and without T1D. Results:Two viruses were more prevalent in pregnant women with T1D: picobirnaviruses (odds ratio [OR], 4.2; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.0-17.1; P = .046) and tobamoviruses (OR, 3.2; 95% CI, 1.1-9.3; P = .037). The abundance of 77 viruses significantly differed between the 2 maternal groups (≥2-fold difference; P < .02), including 8 Enterovirus B types present at a higher abundance in women with T1D. Conclusions:These findings provide novel insight into the composition of the gut virome during pregnancy and demonstrate a distinct profile of viruses in women with T1D.Ki Wook Kim, Digby W. Allen ... Simon C. Barry ... Lynne C Giles ... Megan A S Penno ... Rebecca L Thomson ... et al

Protocol for a nested case-control study design for omics investigations in the Environmental Determinants of Islet Autoimmunity cohort

Background: The Environmental Determinants of Islet Autoimmunity (ENDIA) pregnancy-birth cohort investigates the developmental origins of type 1 diabetes (T1D), with recruitment between 2013 and 2019. ENDIA is the first study in the world with comprehensive data and biospecimen collection during pregnancy, at birth and through childhood from at-risk children who have a first-degree relative with T1D. Environmental exposures are thought to drive the progression to clinical T1D, with pancreatic islet autoimmunity (IA) developing in genetically susceptible individuals. The exposures and key molecular mechanisms driving this progression are unknown. Persistent IA is the primary outcome of ENDIA; defined as a positive antibody for at least one of IAA, GAD, ZnT8 or IA2 on two consecutive occasions and signifies high risk of clinical T1D.Method: A nested case-control (NCC) study design with 54 cases and 161 matched controls aims to investigate associations between persistent IA and longitudinal omics exposures in ENDIA. The NCC study will analyse samples obtained from ENDIA children who have either developed persistent IA or progressed to clinical T1D (cases) and matched control children at risk of developing persistent IA. Control children were matched on sex and age, with all four autoantibodies absent within a defined window of the case's onset date. Cases seroconverted at a median of 1.37 years (IQR 0.95, 2.56). Longitudinal omics data generated from approximately 16,000 samples of different biospecimen types, will enable evaluation of changes from pregnancy through childhood.Conclusions: This paper describes the ENDIA NCC study, omics platform design considerations and planned univariate and multivariate analyses for its longitudinal data. Methodologies for multivariate omics analysis with longitudinal data are discovery-focused and data driven. There is currently no single multivariate method tailored specifically for the longitudinal omics data that the ENDIA NCC study will generate and therefore omics analysis results will require either cross validation or independent validation.KEY MESSAGESThe ENDIA nested case-control study will utilize longitudinal omics data on approximately 16,000 samples from 190 unique children at risk of type 1 diabetes (T1D), including 54 who have developed islet autoimmunity (IA), followed during pregnancy, at birth and during early childhood, enabling the developmental origins of T1D to be explored.Helena Oakey ... Lynne C. Giles ... Rebecca L. Thomson ... Pat Ashwood ... Emma J. Knight ... Simon C. Barry ... Kelly McGorm ... Jennifer J. Couper ... Megan A. S. Penno ... the ENDIA Study Group ... et al

Risk profiles and one-year outcomes of patients with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation in India: Insights from the GARFIELD-AF Registry.

BACKGROUND: The Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-Atrial Fibrillation (GARFIELD-AF) is an ongoing prospective noninterventional registry, which is providing important information on the baseline characteristics, treatment patterns, and 1-year outcomes in patients with newly diagnosed non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). This report describes data from Indian patients recruited in this registry. METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 52,014 patients with newly diagnosed AF were enrolled globally; of these, 1388 patients were recruited from 26 sites within India (2012-2016). In India, the mean age was 65.8 years at diagnosis of NVAF. Hypertension was the most prevalent risk factor for AF, present in 68.5% of patients from India and in 76.3% of patients globally (P < 0.001). Diabetes and coronary artery disease (CAD) were prevalent in 36.2% and 28.1% of patients as compared with global prevalence of 22.2% and 21.6%, respectively (P < 0.001 for both). Antiplatelet therapy was the most common antithrombotic treatment in India. With increasing stroke risk, however, patients were more likely to receive oral anticoagulant therapy [mainly vitamin K antagonist (VKA)], but average international normalized ratio (INR) was lower among Indian patients [median INR value 1.6 (interquartile range {IQR}: 1.3-2.3) versus 2.3 (IQR 1.8-2.8) (P < 0.001)]. Compared with other countries, patients from India had markedly higher rates of all-cause mortality [7.68 per 100 person-years (95% confidence interval 6.32-9.35) vs 4.34 (4.16-4.53), P < 0.0001], while rates of stroke/systemic embolism and major bleeding were lower after 1 year of follow-up. CONCLUSION: Compared to previously published registries from India, the GARFIELD-AF registry describes clinical profiles and outcomes in Indian patients with AF of a different etiology. The registry data show that compared to the rest of the world, Indian AF patients are younger in age and have more diabetes and CAD. Patients with a higher stroke risk are more likely to receive anticoagulation therapy with VKA but are underdosed compared with the global average in the GARFIELD-AF. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION-URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01090362

Combining Asian and European genome-wide association studies of colorectal cancer improves risk prediction across racial and ethnic populations

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) have great potential to guide precision colorectal cancer (CRC) prevention by identifying those at higher risk to undertake targeted screening. However, current PRS using European ancestry data have sub-optimal performance in non-European ancestry populations, limiting their utility among these populations. Towards addressing this deficiency, we expand PRS development for CRC by incorporating Asian ancestry data (21,731 cases; 47,444 controls) into European ancestry training datasets (78,473 cases; 107,143 controls). The AUC estimates (95% CI) of PRS are 0.63(0.62-0.64), 0.59(0.57-0.61), 0.62(0.60-0.63), and 0.65(0.63-0.66) in independent datasets including 1681-3651 cases and 8696-115,105 controls of Asian, Black/African American, Latinx/Hispanic, and non-Hispanic White, respectively. They are significantly better than the European-centric PRS in all four major US racial and ethnic groups (p-values < 0.05). Further inclusion of non-European ancestry populations, especially Black/African American and Latinx/Hispanic, is needed to improve the risk prediction and enhance equity in applying PRS in clinical practice