Modelled ocean changes at the Plio-Pleistocene transition driven by Antarctic ice advance

The Earth underwent a major transition from the warm climates of the Pliocene to the Pleistocene ice ages between 3.2 and 2.6 million years ago. The intensification of Northern Hemisphere Glaciation is the most obvious result of the Plio-Pleistocene transition. However, recent data show that the ocean also underwent a significant change, with the convergence of deep water mass properties in the North Pacific and North Atlantic Ocean. Here we show that the lack of coastal ice in the Pacific sector of Antarctica leads to major reductions in Pacific Ocean overturning and the loss of the modern North Pacific Deep Water (NPDW) mass in climate models of the warmest periods of the Pliocene. These results potentially explain the convergence of global deep water mass properties at the Plio-Pleistocene transition, as Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) became the common source

Patterns and mechanisms of early Pliocene warmth

About five to four million years ago, in the early Pliocene epoch, Earth had a warm, temperate climate. The gradual cooling that followed led to the establishment of modern temperature patterns, possibly in response to a decrease in atmospheric CO2 concentration, of the order of 100 parts per million, towards preindustrial values. Here we synthesize the available geochemical proxy records of sea surface temperature and show that, compared with that of today, the early Pliocene climate had substantially lower meridional and zonal temperature gradients but similar maximum ocean temperatures. Using an Earth system model, we show that none of the mechanisms currently proposed to explain Pliocene warmth can simultaneously reproduce all three crucial features. We suggest that a combination of several dynamical feedbacks underestimated in the models at present, such as those related to ocean mixing and cloud albedo, may have been responsible for these climate conditions

Seasonal-to-decadal predictions with the ensemble Kalman filter and the Norwegian Earth System Model: a twin experiment

Here, we firstly demonstrate the potential of an advanced flow dependent data assimilation method for performing seasonal-to-decadal prediction and secondly, reassess the use of sea surface temperature (SST) for initialisation of these forecasts. We use the Norwegian Climate Prediction Model (NorCPM), which is based on the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM) and uses the deterministic ensemble Kalman filter to assimilate observations. NorESM is a fully coupled system based on the Community Earth System Model version 1, which includes an ocean, an atmosphere, a sea ice and a land model. A numerically efficient coarse resolution version of NorESM is used. We employ a twin experiment methodology to provide an upper estimate of predictability in our model framework (i.e. without considering model bias) of NorCPM that assimilates synthetic monthly SST data (EnKF-SST). The accuracy of EnKF-SST is compared to an unconstrained ensemble run (FREE) and ensemble predictions made with near perfect (i.e. microscopic SST perturbation) initial conditions (PERFECT). We perform 10 cycles, each consisting of a 10-yr assimilation phase, followed by a 10-yr prediction. The results indicate that EnKF-SST improves sea level, ice concentration, 2 m atmospheric temperature, precipitation and 3-D hydrography compared to FREE. Improvements for the hydrography are largest near the surface and are retained for longer periods at depth. Benefits in salinity are retained for longer periods compared to temperature. Near-surface improvements are largest in the tropics, while improvements at intermediate depths are found in regions of large-scale currents, regions of deep convection, and at the Mediterranean Sea outflow. However, the benefits are often small compared to PERFECT, in particular, at depth suggesting that more observations should be assimilated in addition to SST. The EnKF-SST system is also tested for standard ocean circulation indices and demonstrates decadal predictability for Atlantic overturning and sub-polar gyre circulations, and heat content in the Nordic Seas. The system beats persistence forecast and shows skill for heat content in the Nordic Seas that is close to PERFECT

Combined dark matter searches towards dwarf spheroidal galaxies with Fermi-LAT, HAWC, H.E.S.S., MAGIC, and VERITAS

Cosmological and astrophysical observations suggest that 85% of the total matter of the Universe is made of Dark Matter (DM). However, its nature remains one of the most challenging and fundamental open questions of particle physics. Assuming particle DM, this exotic form of matter cannot consist of Standard Model (SM) particles. Many models have been developed to attempt unraveling the nature of DM such as Weakly Interacting Massive Particles (WIMPs), the most favored particle candidates. WIMP annihilations and decay could produce SM particles which in turn hadronize and decay to give SM secondaries such as high energy \u1d6fe rays. In the framework of indirect DM search, observations of promising targets are used to search for signatures of DM annihilation. Among these, the dwarf spheroidal galaxies (dSphs) are commonly favored owing to their expected high DM content and negligible astrophysical background. In this work, we present the very first combination of 20 dSph observations, performed by the Fermi-LAT, HAWC, H.E.S.S., MAGIC, and VERITAS collaborations in order to maximize the sensitivity of DM searches and improve the current results. We use a joint maximum likelihood approach combining each experiment’s individual analysis to derive more constraining upper limits on the WIMP DM self-annihilation cross-section as a function of DM particle mass. We present new DM constraints over the widest mass range ever reported, extending from 5 GeV to 100 TeV thanks to the combination of these five different \u1d6fe-ray instruments

Searching for VHE gamma-ray emission associated with IceCube neutrino alerts using FACT, H.E.S.S., MAGIC, and VERITAS

The realtime follow-up of neutrino events is a promising approach to search for astrophysical neutrino sources. It has so far provided compelling evidence for a neutrino point source: the flaring gamma-ray blazar TXS 0506+056 was observed in coincidence with the high-energy neutrino IceCube-170922A detected by IceCube. The detection of very-high-energy gamma rays (VHE, E > 100 GeV) from this source helped establish the coincidence and constrained the modeling of the blazar emission at the time of the IceCube event. The four major imaging atmospheric Cherenkov telescope arrays (IACTs) - FACT, H.E.S.S., MAGIC, and VERITAS - operate an active follow-up program of target-of-opportunity observations of neutrino alerts sent by IceCube. This program has two main components. One are the observations of known gamma-ray sources around which a cluster of candidate neutrino events has been identified by IceCube (Gamma-ray Follow-Up, GFU). The second one is the follow-up of single high-energy neutrino candidate events of potential astrophysical origin such as IceCube-170922A. GFU has been recently upgraded by IceCube in collaboration with the IACT groups. We present here recent results from the IACT follow-up programs of IceCube neutrino alerts and a description of the upgraded IceCube GFU system

Development and validation of a weather-based model for predicting infection of loquat fruit by Fusicladium eriobotryae

A mechanistic, dynamic model was developed to predict infection of loquat fruit by conidia of Fusicladium eriobotryae, the causal agent of loquat scab. The model simulates scab infection periods and their severity through the sub-processes of spore dispersal, infection, and latency (i.e., the state variables); change from one state to the following one depends on environmental conditions and on processes described by mathematical equations. Equations were developed using published data on F. eriobotryae mycelium growth, conidial germination, infection, and conidial dispersion pattern. The model was then validated by comparing model output with three independent data sets. The model accurately predicts the occurrence and severity of infection periods as well as the progress of loquat scab incidence on fruit (with concordance correlation coefficients .0.95). Model output agreed with expert assessment of the disease severity in seven loquatgrowing seasons. Use of the model for scheduling fungicide applications in loquat orchards may help optimise scab management and reduce fungicide applications.This work was funded by Cooperativa Agricola de Callosa d'En Sarria (Alicante, Spain). Three months' stay of E. Gonzalez-Dominguez at the Universita Cattolica del Sacro Cuore (Piacenza, Italy) was supported by the Programa de Apoyo a la Investigacion y Desarrollo (PAID-00-12) de la Universidad Politecnica de Valencia. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.González Domínguez, E.; Armengol Fortí, J.; Rossi, V. (2014). Development and validation of a weather-based model for predicting infection of loquat fruit by Fusicladium eriobotryae. PLoS ONE. 9(9):1-12. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0107547S11299Sánchez-Torres, P., Hinarejos, R., & Tuset, J. J. (2009). Characterization and Pathogenicity ofFusicladium eriobotryae, the Fungal Pathogen Responsible for Loquat Scab. Plant Disease, 93(11), 1151-1157. doi:10.1094/pdis-93-11-1151Gladieux, P., Caffier, V., Devaux, M., & Le Cam, B. (2010). Host-specific differentiation among populations of Venturia inaequalis causing scab on apple, pyracantha and loquat. Fungal Genetics and Biology, 47(6), 511-521. doi:10.1016/j.fgb.2009.12.007González-Domínguez, E., Rossi, V., Armengol, J., & García-Jiménez, J. (2013). Effect of Environmental Factors on Mycelial Growth and Conidial Germination ofFusicladium eriobotryae, and the Infection of Loquat Leaves. Plant Disease, 97(10), 1331-1338. doi:10.1094/pdis-02-13-0131-reGonzález-Domínguez, E., Rossi, V., Michereff, S. J., García-Jiménez, J., & Armengol, J. (2014). Dispersal of conidia of Fusicladium eriobotryae and spatial patterns of scab in loquat orchards in Spain. European Journal of Plant Pathology, 139(4), 849-861. doi:10.1007/s10658-014-0439-0Becker, C. M. (1994). Discontinuous Wetting and Survival of Conidia ofVenturia inaequalison Apple Leaves. Phytopathology, 84(4), 372. doi:10.1094/phyto-84-372Hartman, J. R., Parisi, L., & Bautrais, P. (1999). Effect of Leaf Wetness Duration, Temperature, and Conidial Inoculum Dose on Apple Scab Infections. Plant Disease, 83(6), 531-534. doi:10.1094/pdis.1999.83.6.531Holb, I. J., Heijne, B., Withagen, J. C. M., & Jeger, M. J. (2004). Dispersal of Venturia inaequalis Ascospores and Disease Gradients from a Defined Inoculum Source. Journal of Phytopathology, 152(11-12), 639-646. doi:10.1111/j.1439-0434.2004.00910.xRossi, V., Giosue, S., & Bugiani, R. (2003). Influence of Air Temperature on the Release of Ascospores of Venturia inaequalis. Journal of Phytopathology, 151(1), 50-58. doi:10.1046/j.1439-0434.2003.00680.xStensvand, A., Gadoury, D. M., Amundsen, T., Semb, L., & Seem, R. C. (1997). Ascospore Release and Infection of Apple Leaves by Conidia and Ascospores ofVenturia inaequalisat Low Temperatures. Phytopathology, 87(10), 1046-1053. doi:10.1094/phyto.1997.87.10.1046Machardy WE (1996) Apple scab. Biology, epidemiology and management. St. Paul: APS Press. 545.James, J. R. (1982). Environmental Factors Influencing Pseudothecial Development and Ascospore Maturation ofVenturia inaequalis. Phytopathology, 72(8), 1073. doi:10.1094/phyto-72-1073Li, B., Zhao, H., Li, B., & Xu, X.-M. (2003). Effects of temperature, relative humidity and duration of wetness period on germination and infection by conidia of the pear scab pathogen (Venturia nashicola). Plant Pathology, 52(5), 546-552. doi:10.1046/j.1365-3059.2003.00887.xLi, B.-H., Xu, X.-M., Li, J.-T., & Li, B.-D. (2005). Effects of temperature and continuous and interrupted wetness on the infection of pear leaves by conidia of Venturia nashicola. Plant Pathology, 54(3), 357-363. doi:10.1111/j.1365-3059.2005.01207.xUMEMOTO, S. (1990). Dispersion of ascospores and conidia of causal fungus of Japanese pear scab, Venturia nashicola. Japanese Journal of Phytopathology, 56(4), 468-473. doi:10.3186/jjphytopath.56.468Rossi, V., Salinari, F., Pattori, E., Giosuè,, S., & Bugiani, R. (2009). Predicting the Dynamics of Ascospore Maturation ofVenturia pirinaBased on Environmental Factors. Phytopathology, 99(4), 453-461. doi:10.1094/phyto-99-4-0453Spotts, R. A. (1991). Effect of Temperature and Wetness on Infection of Pear byVenturia pirinaand the Relationship Between Preharvest Inoculation and Storage Scab. Plant Disease, 75(12), 1204. doi:10.1094/pd-75-1204Spotts, R. A. (1994). Factors Affecting Maturation and Release of Ascospores ofVenturia pirinain Oregon. Phytopathology, 84(3), 260. doi:10.1094/phyto-84-260Villalta, O., Washington, W. S., Rimmington, G. M., & Taylor, P. A. (2000). Australasian Plant Pathology, 29(4), 255. doi:10.1071/ap00048Villalta, O. N., Washington, W. S., Rimmington, G. M., & Taylor, P. A. (2000). Effects of temperature and leaf wetness duration on infection of pear leaves by Venturia pirina. Australian Journal of Agricultural Research, 51(1), 97. doi:10.1071/ar99068Lan, Z., & Scherm, H. (2003). Moisture Sources in Relation to Conidial Dissemination and Infection byCladosporium carpophilumWithin Peach Canopies. Phytopathology, 93(12), 1581-1586. doi:10.1094/phyto.2003.93.12.1581Lawrence, Jr., E. G. (1982). Environmental Effects on the Development and Dissemination ofCladosporium carpophilumon Peach. Phytopathology, 72(7), 773. doi:10.1094/phyto-72-773Gottwald, T. R. (1985). Influence of Temperature, Leaf Wetness Period, Leaf Age, and Spore Concentration on Infection of Pecan Leaves by Conidia ofCladosporium caryigenum. Phytopathology, 75(2), 190. doi:10.1094/phyto-75-190Latham, A. J. (1982). Effects of Some Weather Factors andFusicladium effusumConidium Dispersal on Pecan Scab Occurrence. Phytopathology, 72(10), 1339. doi:10.1094/phyto-72-1339MARZO, L., FRISULLO, S., LOPS, F., & ROSSI, V. (1993). Possible dissemination of Spilocaea oleagina conidia by insects (Ectopsocus briggsi). EPPO Bulletin, 23(3), 389-391. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2338.1993.tb01341.xLOPS, F., FRISULLO, S., & ROSSI, V. (1993). Studies on the spread of the olive scab pathogen, Spilocaea oleagina. EPPO Bulletin, 23(3), 385-387. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2338.1993.tb01340.xObanor, F. O., Walter, M., Jones, E. E., & Jaspers, M. V. (2007). Effect of temperature, relative humidity, leaf wetness and leaf age on Spilocaea oleagina conidium germination on olive leaves. European Journal of Plant Pathology, 120(3), 211-222. doi:10.1007/s10658-007-9209-6Obanor, F. O., Walter, M., Jones, E. E., & Jaspers, M. V. (2010). Effects of temperature, inoculum concentration, leaf age, and continuous and interrupted wetness on infection of olive plants by Spilocaea oleagina. Plant Pathology, 60(2), 190-199. doi:10.1111/j.1365-3059.2010.02370.xViruega, J. R., Moral, J., Roca, L. F., Navarro, N., & Trapero, A. (2013). Spilocaea oleaginain Olive Groves of Southern Spain: Survival, Inoculum Production, and Dispersal. Plant Disease, 97(12), 1549-1556. doi:10.1094/pdis-12-12-1206-reViruega, J. R., Roca, L. F., Moral, J., & Trapero, A. (2011). Factors Affecting Infection and Disease Development on Olive Leaves Inoculated withFusicladium oleagineum. Plant Disease, 95(9), 1139-1146. doi:10.1094/pdis-02-11-0126Eikemo, H., Gadoury, D. M., Spotts, R. A., Villalta, O., Creemers, P., Seem, R. C., & Stensvand, A. (2011). Evaluation of Six Models to Estimate Ascospore Maturation in Venturia pyrina. Plant Disease, 95(3), 279-284. doi:10.1094/pdis-02-10-0125Li, B.-H., Yang, J.-R., Dong, X.-L., Li, B.-D., & Xu, X.-M. (2007). A dynamic model forecasting infection of pear leaves by conidia of Venturia nashicola and its evaluation in unsprayed orchards. European Journal of Plant Pathology, 118(3), 227-238. doi:10.1007/s10658-007-9138-4Rossi, V., Giosuè, S., & Bugiani, R. (2007). A-scab (Apple-scab), a simulation model for estimating risk of Venturia inaequalis primary infections. EPPO Bulletin, 37(2), 300-308. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2338.2007.01125.xXU, X.-M., BUTT, D. J., & SANTEN, G. (1995). A dynamic model simulating infection of apple leaves by Venturia inaequalis. Plant Pathology, 44(5), 865-876. doi:10.1111/j.1365-3059.1995.tb02746.xRoubal, C., Regis, S., & Nicot, P. C. (2012). Field models for the prediction of leaf infection and latent period ofFusicladium oleagineumon olive based on rain, temperature and relative humidity. Plant Pathology, 62(3), 657-666. doi:10.1111/j.1365-3059.2012.02666.xPayne, A. F., & Smith, D. L. (2012). Development and Evaluation of Two Pecan Scab Prediction Models. Plant Disease, 96(9), 1358-1364. doi:10.1094/pdis-03-11-0202-reTrapman M, Jansonius PJ (2008) Disease management in organic apple orchards is more than applying the right product at the correct time. Ecofruit-13th International Conference on Cultivation Technique and Phytopathological Problems in Organic Fruit-Growing: Proceedings to the Conference from 18th February to 20th February 2008 at Weinsberg/Germany. 16–22.HOLB, I. J., JONG, P. F., & HEIJNE, B. (2003). Efficacy and phytotoxicity of lime sulphur in organic apple production. Annals of Applied Biology, 142(2), 225-233. doi:10.1111/j.1744-7348.2003.tb00245.xGent, D. H., Mahaffee, W. F., McRoberts, N., & Pfender, W. F. (2013). The Use and Role of Predictive Systems in Disease Management. Annual Review of Phytopathology, 51(1), 267-289. doi:10.1146/annurev-phyto-082712-102356Alavanja, M. C. R., Hoppin, J. A., & Kamel, F. (2004). Health Effects of Chronic Pesticide Exposure: Cancer and Neurotoxicity. 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First results on ProtoDUNE-SP liquid argon time projection chamber performance from a beam test at the CERN Neutrino Platform

The ProtoDUNE-SP detector is a single-phase liquid argon time projection chamber with an active volume of 7.2× 6.1× 7.0 m3. It is installed at the CERN Neutrino Platform in a specially-constructed beam that delivers charged pions, kaons, protons, muons and electrons with momenta in the range 0.3 GeV/c to 7 GeV/c. Beam line instrumentation provides accurate momentum measurements and particle identification. The ProtoDUNE-SP detector is a prototype for the first far detector module of the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment, and it incorporates full-size components as designed for that module. This paper describes the beam line, the time projection chamber, the photon detectors, the cosmic-ray tagger, the signal processing and particle reconstruction. It presents the first results on ProtoDUNE-SP\u27s performance, including noise and gain measurements, dE/dx calibration for muons, protons, pions and electrons, drift electron lifetime measurements, and photon detector noise, signal sensitivity and time resolution measurements. The measured values meet or exceed the specifications for the DUNE far detector, in several cases by large margins. ProtoDUNE-SP\u27s successful operation starting in 2018 and its production of large samples of high-quality data demonstrate the effectiveness of the single-phase far detector design

Reconstruction of interactions in the ProtoDUNE-SP detector with Pandora

The Pandora Software Development Kit and algorithm libraries provide pattern-recognition logic essential to the reconstruction of particle interactions in liquid argon time projection chamber detectors. Pandora is the primary event reconstruction software used at ProtoDUNE-SP, a prototype for the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment far detector. ProtoDUNE-SP, located at CERN, is exposed to a charged-particle test beam. This paper gives an overview of the Pandora reconstruction algorithms and how they have been tailored for use at ProtoDUNE-SP. In complex events with numerous cosmic-ray and beam background particles, the simulated reconstruction and identification efficiency for triggered test-beam particles is above 80% for the majority of particle type and beam momentum combinations. Specifically, simulated 1 GeV/$c$ charged pions and protons are correctly reconstructed and identified with efficiencies of 86.1$\pm0.6$% and 84.1$\pm0.6$%, respectively. The efficiencies measured for test-beam data are shown to be within 5% of those predicted by the simulation.Comment: 39 pages, 19 figure