Towards a unified eco-evolutionary framework for fisheries management: Coupling advances in next-generation sequencing with species distribution modelling

The establishment of high-throughput sequencing technologies and subsequent large-scale genomic datasets has flourished across fields of fundamental biological sciences. The introduction of genomic resources in fisheries management has been proposed from multiple angles, ranging from an accurate re-definition of geographical limitations of stocks and connectivity, identification of fine-scale stock structure linked to locally adapted subpopulations, or even the integration with individual-based biophysical models to explore life history strategies. While those clearly enhance our perception of patterns at the light of a spatial scale, temporal depth and consequently forecasting ability might be compromised as an analytical trade-off. Here, we present a framework to reinforce our understanding of stock dynamics by adding also a temporal point of view. We propose to integrate genomic information on temporal projections of species distributions computed by Species Distribution Models (SDMs). SDMs have the potential to project the current and future distribution ranges of a given species from relevant environmental predictors. These projections serve as tools to inform about range expansions and contractions of fish stocks and suggest either suitable locations or local extirpations that may arise in the future. However, SDMs assume that the whole population respond homogenously to the range of environmental conditions. Here, we conceptualize a framework that leverages a conventional Bayesian joint-SDM approach with the incorporation of genomic data. We propose that introducing genomic information at the basis of a joint-SDM will explore the range of suitable habitats where stocks could thrive in the future as a function of their current evolutionary potential.Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnollogia - FCT; ARNETinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Effects of fire frequency on savanna butterfly diversity and composition: A preliminary study

Fire plays a major role in many biomes, is widely used as a management tool and is likely to be affected by climate change. For effective conservation management, it is essential to understand how fire regimes affect different taxa, yet responses of invertebrates are particularly poorly documented. We tested how different fire frequencies influence savanna butterfly diversity and composition by using a long-term savanna fire experiment initiated in 1954 in the Kruger National Park (South Africa). We compared butterfly abundance, species richness and community composition across three fire frequencies: high (burnt annually), medium (burnt triennially) and low (burnt twice in 60 years). Plots with high fire frequency hosted higher abundance than medium- or low-frequency plots. Fire frequencies did not affect species richness, but they led to distinct communities of butterflies. Our findings suggest that, in view of the three fire frequencies tested, a spatial diversity of fire frequencies may increase butterfly diversity at the landscape level in wet savannas. Managers may need to promote a greater diversity of fire frequencies by increasing fire frequency in some areas to provide habitat for species requiring high fire frequency, and by decreasing fire frequency in a large proportion of the landscape to provide fire refuges. This study provides new insights for butterfly conservation in savannas and highlights several knowledge gaps, which further studies should address for insect responses to be given adequate consideration in fire management strategies.Conservation implications: A spatial diversity of fire frequencies may increase butterfly diversity. Managers may need to promote a greater diversity of fire frequencies by increasing fire frequency in some areas to provide habitat for species requiring high fire frequency, and by decreasing fire frequency in other areas to provide fire refuges

Towards a unified eco-evolutionary framework for fisheries management: Coupling advances in next-generation sequencing with species distribution modelling

The establishment of high-throughput sequencing technologies and subsequent large-scale genomic datasets has flourished across fields of fundamental biological sciences. The introduction of genomic resources in fisheries management has been proposed from multiple angles, ranging from an accurate re-definition of geographical limitations of stocks and connectivity, identification of fine-scale stock structure linked to locally adapted sub-populations, or even the integration with individual-based biophysical models to explore life history strategies. While those clearly enhance our perception of patterns at the light of a spatial scale, temporal depth and consequently forecasting ability might be compromised as an analytical trade-off. Here, we present a framework to reinforce our understanding of stock dynamics by adding also a temporal point of view. We propose to integrate genomic information on temporal projections of species distributions computed by Species Distribution Models (SDMs). SDMs have the potential to project the current and future distribution ranges of a given species from relevant environmental predictors. These projections serve as tools to inform about range expansions and contractions of fish stocks and suggest either suitable locations or local extirpations that may arise in the future. However, SDMs assume that the whole population respond homogenously to the range of environmental conditions. Here, we conceptualize a framework that leverages a conventional Bayesian joint-SDM approach with the incorporation of genomic data. We propose that introducing genomic information at the basis of a joint-SDM will explore the range of suitable habitats where stocks could thrive in the future as a function of their current evolutionary potential

A More Effective Ramsar Convention for the Conservation of Mediterranean Wetlands

The Ramsar Convention is the multilateral agreement aimed at protecting wetlands globally. Wetlands are particularly recognized for their role in the Mediterranean biodiversity hotspot by providing key habitats for endemic and migratory species, directly contributing benefits to the lives of people and being an integral part of their culture. In response to this importance, the Mediterranean Wetlands Observatory publishes Mediterranean Wetland Outlooks (MWOs) on the state and trends of Mediterranean wetlands; the first edition in 2012 (MWO1) and the second edition in 2018 (MWO2). In this paper, we used the results of the two Mediterranean Wetland Outlooks to highlight ways to increase the impact of the Ramsar Convention by identifying the spatial dimensions of detected biodiversity trends as well as the societal developments and estimated impacts of global change and protection status

Decomposing the spatial and temporal effects of climate on bird populations in northern European mountains

The relationships between species abundance or occurrence versus spatial variation in climate are commonly used in species distribution models to forecast future distributions. Under "space-for-time substitution", the effects of climate variation on species are assumed to be equivalent in both space and time. Two unresolved issues of space-for-time substitution are the time period for species' responses and also the relative contributions of rapid- versus slow reactions in shaping spatial and temporal responses to climate change. To test the assumption of equivalence, we used a new approach of climate decomposition to separate variation in temperature and precipitation in Fennoscandia into spatial, temporal, and spatiotemporal components over a 23-year period (1996-2018). We compiled information on land cover, topography, and six components of climate for 1756 fixed route surveys, and we modeled annual counts of 39 bird species breeding in the mountains of Fennoscandia. Local abundance of breeding birds was associated with the spatial components of climate as expected, but the temporal and spatiotemporal climatic variation from the current and previous breeding seasons were also important. The directions of the effects of the three climate components differed within and among species, suggesting that species can respond both rapidly and slowly to climate variation and that the responses represent different ecological processes. Thus, the assumption of equivalent species' response to spatial and temporal variation in climate was seldom met in our study system. Consequently, for the majority of our species, space-for-time substitution may only be applicable once the slow species' responses to a changing climate have occurred, whereas forecasts for the near future need to accommodate the temporal components of climate variation. However, appropriate forecast horizons for space-for-time substitution are rarely considered and may be difficult to reliably identify. Accurately predicting change is challenging because multiple ecological processes affect species distributions at different temporal scales.Peer reviewe

Decomposing the spatial and temporal effects of climate on bird populations in northern European mountains

The relationships between species abundance or occurrence versus spatial variation in climate are commonly used in species distribution models to forecast future distributions. Under "space-for-time substitution", the effects of climate variation on species are assumed to be equivalent in both space and time. Two unresolved issues of space-for-time substitution are the time period for species' responses and also the relative contributions of rapid- versus slow reactions in shaping spatial and temporal responses to climate change. To test the assumption of equivalence, we used a new approach of climate decomposition to separate variation in temperature and precipitation in Fennoscandia into spatial, temporal, and spatiotemporal components over a 23-year period (1996-2018). We compiled information on land cover, topography, and six components of climate for 1756 fixed route surveys, and we modeled annual counts of 39 bird species breeding in the mountains of Fennoscandia. Local abundance of breeding birds was associated with the spatial components of climate as expected, but the temporal and spatiotemporal climatic variation from the current and previous breeding seasons were also important. The directions of the effects of the three climate components differed within and among species, suggesting that species can respond both rapidly and slowly to climate variation and that the responses represent different ecological processes. Thus, the assumption of equivalent species' response to spatial and temporal variation in climate was seldom met in our study system. Consequently, for the majority of our species, space-for-time substitution may only be applicable once the slow species' responses to a changing climate have occurred, whereas forecasts for the near future need to accommodate the temporal components of climate variation. However, appropriate forecast horizons for space-for-time substitution are rarely considered and may be difficult to reliably identify. Accurately predicting change is challenging because multiple ecological processes affect species distributions at different temporal scales

Decomposing the spatial and temporal effects of climate on bird populations in northern European mountains

The relationships between species abundance or occurrence versus spatial variation in climate are commonly used in species distribution models to forecast future distributions. Under "space-for-time substitution", the effects of climate variation on species are assumed to be equivalent in both space and time. Two unresolved issues of space-for-time substitution are the time period for species' responses and also the relative contributions of rapid- versus slow reactions in shaping spatial and temporal responses to climate change. To test the assumption of equivalence, we used a new approach of climate decomposition to separate variation in temperature and precipitation in Fennoscandia into spatial, temporal, and spatiotemporal components over a 23-year period (1996-2018). We compiled information on land cover, topography, and six components of climate for 1756 fixed route surveys, and we modeled annual counts of 39 bird species breeding in the mountains of Fennoscandia. Local abundance of breeding birds was associated with the spatial components of climate as expected, but the temporal and spatiotemporal climatic variation from the current and previous breeding seasons were also important. The directions of the effects of the three climate components differed within and among species, suggesting that species can respond both rapidly and slowly to climate variation and that the responses represent different ecological processes. Thus, the assumption of equivalent species' response to spatial and temporal variation in climate was seldom met in our study system. Consequently, for the majority of our species, space-for-time substitution may only be applicable once the slow species' responses to a changing climate have occurred, whereas forecasts for the near future need to accommodate the temporal components of climate variation. However, appropriate forecast horizons for space-for-time substitution are rarely considered and may be difficult to reliably identify. Accurately predicting change is challenging because multiple ecological processes affect species distributions at different temporal scales

Protected area characteristics that help waterbirds respond to climate warming

Protected area networks help species respond to climate warming. However, the contribution of a site's environmental and conservation-relevant characteristics to these responses is not well understood. We investigated how composition of nonbreeding waterbird communities (97 species) in the European Union Natura 2000 (N2K) network (3018 sites) changed in response to increases in temperature over 25 years in 26 European countries. We measured community reshuffling based on abundance time series collected under the International Waterbird Census relative to N2K sites' conservation targets, funding, designation period, and management plan status. Waterbird community composition in sites explicitly designated to protect them and with management plans changed more quickly in response to climate warming than in other N2K sites. Temporal community changes were not affected by the designation period despite greater exposure to temperature increase inside late-designated N2K sites. Sites funded under the LIFE program had lower climate-driven community changes than sites that did not received LIFE funding. Our findings imply that efficient conservation policy that helps waterbird communities respond to climate warming is associated with sites specifically managed for waterbirds.Peer reviewe

Climate change in the Baltic Sea region : a summary

Based on the Baltic Earth Assessment Reports of this thematic issue in Earth System Dynamics and recent peer-reviewed literature, current knowledge of the effects of global warming on past and future changes in climate of the Baltic Sea region is summarised and assessed. The study is an update of the Second Assessment of Climate Change (BACC II) published in 2015 and focuses on the atmosphere, land, cryosphere, ocean, sediments, and the terrestrial and marine biosphere. Based on the summaries of the recent knowledge gained in palaeo-, historical, and future regional climate research, we find that the main conclusions from earlier assessments still remain valid. However, new long-term, homogenous observational records, for example, for Scandinavian glacier inventories, sea-level-driven saltwater inflows, so-called Major Baltic Inflows, and phytoplankton species distribution, and new scenario simulations with improved models, for example, for glaciers, lake ice, and marine food web, have become available. In many cases, uncertainties can now be better estimated than before because more models were included in the ensembles, especially for the Baltic Sea. With the help of coupled models, feedbacks between several components of the Earth system have been studied, and multiple driver studies were performed, e.g. projections of the food web that include fisheries, eutrophication, and climate change. New datasets and projections have led to a revised understanding of changes in some variables such as salinity. Furthermore, it has become evident that natural variability, in particular for the ocean on multidecadal timescales, is greater than previously estimated, challenging our ability to detect observed and projected changes in climate. In this context, the first palaeoclimate simulations regionalised for the Baltic Sea region are instructive. Hence, estimated uncertainties for the projections of many variables increased. In addition to the well-known influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation, it was found that also other low-frequency modes of internal variability, such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, have profound effects on the climate of the Baltic Sea region. Challenges were also identified, such as the systematic discrepancy between future cloudiness trends in global and regional models and the difficulty of confidently attributing large observed changes in marine ecosystems to climate change. Finally, we compare our results with other coastal sea assessments, such as the North Sea Region Climate Change Assessment (NOSCCA), and find that the effects of climate change on the Baltic Sea differ from those on the North Sea, since Baltic Sea oceanography and ecosystems are very different from other coastal seas such as the North Sea. While the North Sea dynamics are dominated by tides, the Baltic Sea is characterised by brackish water, a perennial vertical stratification in the southern subbasins, and a seasonal sea ice cover in the northern subbasins.Peer reviewe