The Delphi technique in ecology and biological conservation: Applications and guidelines

1. Many areas of science, including conservation and environmental management, regularly require engaging stakeholders or experts to produce consensus or technical inputs. The Delphi technique is an iterative and anonymous participatory method used for gathering and evaluating such expert-based knowledge. 2. We outline the methodology of the Delphi technique and provide a taxonomy of its main variants. In addition, we refine the technique by providing suggestions to address common limitations (e.g. time consumption, attrition rate) in order tomake the method more suitable for application in ecology and conservation. 3. A comprehensive search for studies that have applied the Delphi technique in conservation and environmental management resulted in 36 papers. The Delphi technique has been applied to a range of issues, including developing decision support systems and predicting ecological impacts of climate change. 4. The papers reviewed suggest that the Delphi technique is an efficient, inclusive, systematic and structured approach that can be used to address complex issues. A major strength compared to other group-based techniques is the reduced influence of social pressures among respondents. 5. The Delphi technique is relatively little used and seems undervalued. Given its wide range of possible applications, it could be applied more widely in evaluating evidence and providing expert judgments.The authors would like to thank Pinaki Bhattacharya, Maria Voigt, Francisco Benitez-Capistros and the three anonymous reviewers for their significant contributions in improving the earlier manuscript. WJS is funded by Arcadia. NM and JH were funded by the Belgian National Science Foundation (FNRS), MIS ID 1765914 project. NM was also funded by the Fondation Weiner Anspach (FWA) postdoctoral fellowship.This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Wiley at http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/2041-210X.1238

Genomic differentiation during speciation-with-gene-flow: Comparing geographic and host-related variation in divergent life history adaptation in rhagoletis pomonella

A major goal of evolutionary biology is to understand how variation within populations gets partitioned into differences between reproductively isolated species. Here, we examine the degree to which diapause life history timing, a critical adaptation promoting population divergence, explains geographic and host-related genetic variation in ancestral hawthorn and recently derived apple-infesting races of Rhagoletis pomonella. Our strategy involved combining experiments on two different aspects of diapause (initial diapause intensity and adult eclosion time) with a geographic survey of genomic variation across four sites where apple and hawthorn flies co-occur from north to south in the Midwestern USA. The results demonstrated that the majority of the genome showing significant geographic and host-related variation can be accounted for by initial diapause intensity and eclosion time. Local genomic differences between sympatric apple and hawthorn flies were subsumed within broader geographic clines; allele frequency differences within the races across the Midwest were two to three-fold greater than those between the races in sympatry. As a result, sympatric apple and hawthorn populations displayed more limited genomic clustering compared to geographic populations within the races. The findings suggest that with reduced gene flow and increased selection on diapause equivalent to that seen between geographic sites, the host races may be recognized as different genotypic entities in sympatry, and perhaps species, a hypothesis requiring future genomic analysis of related sibling species to R. pomonella to test. Our findings concerning the way selection and geography interplay could be of broad significance for many cases of earlier stages of divergence-with-gene flow, including (1) where only modest increases in geographic isolation and the strength of selection may greatly impact genetic coupling and (2) the dynamics of how spatial and temporal standing variation is extracted by selection to generate differences between new and discrete units of biodiversity

Financial diversification before modern portfolio theory: UK financial advice documents in the late nineteenth and the beginning of the twentieth century

The paper offers textual evidence from a series of financial advice documents in the late nineteenth century and the early twentieth century of how UK investors perceived of and managed risk. In the world’s largest financial centre of the time, UK investors were familiar with the concept of correlation and financial advisers’ suggestions were consistent with the recommendations of modern portfolio theory in relation to portfolio selection strategies. From the 1870s, there was an increased awareness of the benefits of financial diversification - primarily putting equal amounts into a number of different securities - with much of the emphasis being on geographical rather than sectoral diversification and some discussion of avoiding highly correlated investments. Investors in the past were not so naïve as mainstream financial discussions suggest today

Standing geographic variation in eclosion time and the genomics of host race formation in Rhagoletis pomonella fruit flies.

Taxa harboring high levels of standing variation may be more likely to adapt to rapid environmental shifts and experience ecological speciation. Here, we characterize geographic and host-related differentiation for 10,241 single nucleotide polymorphisms in Rhagoletis pomonella fruit flies to infer whether standing genetic variation in adult eclosion time in the ancestral hawthorn (Crataegus spp.)-infesting host race, as opposed to new mutations, contributed substantially to its recent shift to earlier fruiting apple (Malus domestica). Allele frequency differences associated with early vs. late eclosion time within each host race were significantly related to geographic genetic variation and host race differentiation across four sites, arrayed from north to south along a 430-km transect, where the host races co-occur in sympatry in the Midwest United States. Host fruiting phenology is clinal, with both apple and hawthorn trees fruiting earlier in the North and later in the South. Thus, we expected alleles associated with earlier eclosion to be at higher frequencies in northern populations. This pattern was observed in the hawthorn race across all four populations; however, allele frequency patterns in the apple race were more complex. Despite the generally earlier eclosion timing of apple flies and corresponding apple fruiting phenology, alleles on chromosomes 2 and 3 associated with earlier emergence were paradoxically at lower frequency in the apple than hawthorn host race across all four sympatric sites. However, loci on chromosome 1 did show higher frequencies of early eclosion-associated alleles in the apple than hawthorn host race at the two southern sites, potentially accounting for their earlier eclosion phenotype. Thus, although extensive clinal genetic variation in the ancestral hawthorn race exists and contributed to the host shift to apple, further study is needed to resolve details of how this standing variation was selected to generate earlier eclosing apple fly populations in the North

Establishment and dynamics of the balsam fir seedling bank in old forests of northeastern Quebec

This study examines balsam fir (Abies balsamea (L.) Mill.) recruitment in old fir stands. Studying the regeneration of these stands is essential to understand the regeneration dynamic of the species in the absence of standdestroying disturbances. The objectives were (1) to obtain substrate-seedling associations for different age-classes and according to the presence or absence of adventitious roots; (2) to evaluate the contribution of the seed rain to seedling recruitment; (3) to re-examine age structures using the most appropriate method that minimizes estimation errors due to the presence of adventitious roots. A total of 90 quadrats (1 m2) were established along transects. In each quadrat, subtrates were characterized (type and topography) and their area was estimated. All balsam fir seedlings (<50 cm tall) present in the quadrats were located, harvested whole (root and shoot), and described (age, height, presence of adventitious roots, etc). Fir seedlings were strongly associated with woody mounds covered with thin mats of mixed mosses and Pleurozium shreberi (Bird.) Mitt. but negatively associated with flat topography particularly dominated by Hylocomium splendens (Hedw.) B.S.G. The presence of adventitious root is related to seedling age more than substrate type or topography. The age structure is in agreement with seed production and disturbance regime

A Galaxy-scale Fountain of Cold Molecular Gas Pumped by a Black Hole

We present Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array and Multi-Unit Spectroscopic Explorer observations of the brightest cluster galaxy in Abell 2597, a nearby (z = 0.0821) cool core cluster of galaxies. The data map the kinematics of a three billion solar mass filamentary nebula that spans the innermost 30 kpc of the galaxy's core. Its warm ionized and cold molecular components are both cospatial and comoving, consistent with the hypothesis that the optical nebula traces the warm envelopes of many cold molecular clouds that drift in the velocity field of the hot X-ray atmosphere. The clouds are not in dynamical equilibrium, and instead show evidence for inflow toward the central supermassive black hole, outflow along the jets it launches, and uplift by the buoyant hot bubbles those jets inflate. The entire scenario is therefore consistent with a galaxy-spanning "fountain," wherein cold gas clouds drain into the black hole accretion reservoir, powering jets and bubbles that uplift a cooling plume of low-entropy multiphase gas, which may stimulate additional cooling and accretion as part of a self-regulating feedback loop. All velocities are below the escape speed from the galaxy, and so these clouds should rain back toward the galaxy center from which they came, keeping the fountain long lived. The data are consistent with major predictions of chaotic cold accretion, precipitation, and stimulated feedback models, and may trace processes fundamental to galaxy evolution at effectively all mass scales