Modelling double skin façades (DSFs) in whole-building energy simulation tools: Validation and inter-software comparison of a mechanically ventilated single-story DSF

Double skin façades (DSFs) have been proposed as responsive building systems to improve the building envelope's performance. Reliable simulation of DSF performance is a prerequisite to support the design and implementation of these systems in real buildings. Building energy simulation (BES) tools are commonly used by practitioners to predict the whole building energy performance, but the simulation of the thermophysical behaviour of DSFs may be challenging when carried out through BES tools. Using an exhaust-air façade case study, we analyse and assess the reliability of four popular BES tools when these are used to simulate a DSF, either through available in-built models or through custom-built representations based on zonal models. We carry out this study by comparing numerical simulations and experimental data for a series of significant thermophysical quantities, and we reflect on the performance and limitations of the different tools. The results show that no tool is outstandingly better performing over the others, but some tools offer better predictions when the focus is placed on certain thermophysical quantities, while others should be chosen if the focus is on different ones. After comparing the different models’ limitations and challenges, we conclude that BES tools can simulate the performance of DSF systems over long periods. However, their use alone is not recommended when the simulation's scope is to replicate and study short-term phenomena and dynamic aspects, such as sizing the building's HVAC system

Black carbon in the atmosphere and snow, from pre-industrial times until present

The distribution of black carbon (BC) in the atmosphere and the deposition of BC on snow surfaces since pre-industrial time until present are modelled with the Oslo CTM2 model. The model results are compared with observations including recent measurements of BC in snow in the Arctic. The global mean burden of BC from fossil fuel and biofuel sources increased during two periods. The first period, until 1920, is related to increases in emissions in North America and Europe, and the last period after 1970 are related mainly to increasing emissions in East Asia. Although the global burden of BC from fossil fuel and biofuel increases, in the Arctic the maximum atmospheric BC burden as well as in the snow was reached in 1960s, with a slight reduction thereafter. The global mean burden of BC from open biomass burning sources has not changed significantly since 1900. With current inventories of emissions from open biomass sources, the modelled burden of BC in snow and in the atmosphere north of 65° N is small compared to the BC burden of fossil fuel and biofuel origin. From the concentration changes radiative forcing time series due to the direct aerosol effect as well as the snow-albedo effect is calculated for BC from fossil fuel and biofuel. The calculated radiative forcing in 2000 for the direct aerosol effect is 0.35 W m<sup>−2</sup> and for the snow-albedo effect 0.016 W m<sup>−2</sup> in this study. Due to a southward shift in the emissions there is an increase in the lifetime of BC as well as an increase in normalized radiative forcing, giving a change in forcing per unit of emissions of 26 % since 1950

Climate sensitivity estimates – sensitivity to radiative forcing time series and observational data

Inferred effective climate sensitivity (ECSinf) is estimated using a method combining radiative forcing (RF) time series and several series of observed ocean heat content (OHC) and near-surface temperature change in a Bayesian framework using a simple energy balance model and a stochastic model. The model is updated compared to our previous analysis by using recent forcing estimates from IPCC, including OHC data for the deep ocean, and extending the time series to 2014. In our main analysis, the mean value of the estimated ECSinf is 2.0 °C, with a median value of 1.9 °C and a 90 % credible interval (CI) of 1.2–3.1 °C. The mean estimate has recently been shown to be consistent with the higher values for the equilibrium climate sensitivity estimated by climate models. The transient climate response (TCR) is estimated to have a mean value of 1.4 °C (90 % CI 0.9–2.0 °C), and in our main analysis the posterior aerosol effective radiative forcing is similar to the range provided by the IPCC. We show a strong sensitivity of the estimated ECSinf to the choice of a priori RF time series, excluding pre-1950 data and the treatment of OHC data. Sensitivity analysis performed by merging the upper (0–700 m) and the deep-ocean OHC or using only one OHC dataset (instead of four in the main analysis) both give an enhancement of the mean ECSinf by about 50 % from our best estimate

Variation in the achievement of HbA1c, blood pressure and LDL cholesterol targets in type 2 diabetes in general practice and characteristics associated with risk factor control.

Aims To identify population, general practitioner, and practice characteristics associated with the achievement of HbA1c, blood pressure and LDL cholesterol targets, and to describe variation in the achievement of risk factor control. Methods We conducted a cross‐sectional survey of 9342 people with type 2 diabetes, 281 general practitioners and 77 general practices in Norway. Missing values (7.4%) were imputed using multiple imputation by chained equations. We used three‐level logistic regression with the achievement of HbA1c, blood pressure and LDL cholesterol targets as dependent variables, and factors related to population, general practitioners, and practices as independent variables. Results Treatment targets were achieved for HbA1c in 64%, blood pressure in 50%, and LDL cholesterol in 52% of people with type 2 diabetes, and 17% met all three targets. There was substantial heterogeneity in target achievement among general practitioners and among practices; the estimated proportion of a GPs diabetes population at target was 55–73% (10–90 percentiles) for HbA1c, 36–63% for blood pressure, and 47–57% for LDL cholesterol targets. The models explained 11%, 5% and 14%, respectively, of the total variation in the achievement of HbA1c, blood pressure and LDL cholesterol targets. Use among general practitioners of a structured diabetes form was associated with 23% higher odds of achieving the HbA1c target (odds ratio 1.23, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.02–1.47) and 17% higher odds of achieving the LDL cholesterol target (odds ratio 1.17, 95% CI 1.01–1.35). Conclusions Clinical diabetes management is difficult, and few people meet all three risk factor control targets. The proportion of people reaching target varied among general practitioners and practices. Several population, general practitioner and practice characteristics only explained a small part of the total variation. The use of a structured diabetes form is recommended.publishedVersio

Implications of differences between recent anthropogenic aerosol emission inventories for diagnosed AOD and radiative forcing from 1990 to 2019

This study focuses on implications of differences between recent global emissions inventories for simulated trends in anthropogenic aerosol abundances and radiative forcing (RF) over the 1990–2019 period. We use the ECLIPSE version 6 (ECLv6) and CEDS year 2021 release (CEDS21) as input to the chemical transport model OsloCTM3 and compare the resulting aerosol evolution to corresponding results derived with the first CEDS release, as well as to observed trends in regional and global aerosol optical depth (AOD). Using CEDS21 and ECLv6 results in a 3 % and 6 % lower global mean AOD compared to CEDS in 2014, primarily driven by differences over China and India, where the area average AOD is up to 30 % lower. These differences are considerably larger than the satellite-derived interannual variability in AOD. A negative linear trend over 2005–2017 in global AOD following changes in anthropogenic emissions is found with all three inventories but is markedly stronger with CEDS21 and ECLv6. Furthermore, we confirm that the model better captures the sign and strength of the observed AOD trend over China with CEDS21 and ECLv6 compared to using CEDS, while the opposite is the case for South Asia. We estimate a net global mean aerosol-induced RF in 2014 relative to 1990 of 0.08 W m−2 for CEDS21 and 0.12 W m−2 for ECLv6, compared to 0.03 W m−2 with CEDS. Using CEDS21, we also estimate the RF in 2019 relative to 1990 to be 0.10 W m−2, reflecting the continuing decreasing trend in aerosol loads post-2014. Our results facilitate more rigorous comparison between existing and upcoming studies of climate and health effects of aerosols using different emission inventories.</p

Costs and global impacts of black carbon abatement strategies

Abatement of particulate matter has traditionally been driven by health concerns rather than its role in global warming. Here we assess future abatement strategies in terms of how much they reduce the climate impact of black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC) from contained combustion. We develop global scenarios which take into account regional differences in climate impact, costs of abatement and ability to pay, as well as both the direct and indirect (snow-albedo) climate impact of BC and OC. To represent the climate impact, we estimate consistent region-specific values of direct and indirect global warming potential (GWP) and global temperature potential (GTP). The indirect GWP has been estimated using a physical approach and includes the effect of change in albedo from BC deposited on snow. The indirect GWP is highest in the Middle East followed by Russia, Europe and North America, while the total GWP is highest in the Middle East, Africa and South Asia. We conclude that prioritizing emission reductions in Asia represents the most cost-efficient global abatement strategy for BC because Asia is (1) responsible for a large share of total emissions, (2) has lower abatement costs compared to Europe and North America and (3) has large health co-benefits from reduced PM10 emissions

Comparison of aerosol optical properties above clouds between POLDER and AeroCom models over the South East Atlantic Ocean during the fire season

Aerosol properties above clouds have been retrieved over the South East Atlantic Ocean during the fire season 2006 using satellite observations from POLDER (Polarization and Directionality of Earth Reflectances). From June to October, POLDER has observed a mean Above-Cloud Aerosol Optical Thickness (ACAOT) of 0.28 and a mean Above-Clouds Single Scattering Albedo (ACSSA) of 0.87 at 550 nm. These results have been used to evaluate the simulation of aerosols above clouds in 5 AeroCom (Aerosol Comparisons between Observations and Models) models (GOCART, HadGEM3, ECHAM5-HAM2, OsloCTM2 and SPRINTARS). Most models do not reproduce the observed large aerosol load episodes. The comparison highlights the importance of the injection height and the vertical transport parameterizations to simulate the large ACAOT observed by POLDER. Furthermore, POLDER ACSSA is best reproduced by models with a high imaginary part of black carbon refractive index, in accordance with recent recommendations

Long-term weight change and risk of breast cancer in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study

BACKGROUND: The role of obesity and weight change in breast-cancer development is complex and incompletely understood. We investigated long-term weight change and breast-cancer risk by body mass index (BMI) at age 20 years, menopausal status, hormone replacement therapy (HRT) and hormone-receptor status. METHODS: Using data on weight collected at three different time points from women who participated in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study, we investigated the association between weight change from age 20 years until middle adulthood and risk of breast cancer. RESULTS: In total, 150 257 women with a median age of 51 years at cohort entry were followed for an average of 14 years (standard deviation = 3.9) during which 6532 breast-cancer cases occurred. Compared with women with stable weight (±2.5 kg), long-term weight gain >10 kg was positively associated with postmenopausal breast-cancer risk in women who were lean at age 20 [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.42; 95% confidence interval 1.22-1.65] in ever HRT users (HR = 1.23; 1.04-1.44), in never HRT users (HR = 1.40; 1.16-1.68) and in oestrogen-and-progesterone-receptor-positive (ER+PR+) breast cancer (HR = 1.46; 1.15-1.85). CONCLUSION: Long-term weight gain was positively associated with postmenopausal breast cancer in women who were lean at age 20, both in HRT ever users and non-users, and hormone-receptor-positive breast cancer

High-density hyaluronic acid for the treatment of HIV-related facial lipoatrophy

Facial lipoatrophy is a stigmatizing hallmark of HIV. The injection of facial fillers has an essential role in the treatment of this condition. The objective of our study was to verify the safety and efficacy of a new formulation of high-density hyaluronic acid for the injectable treatment of HIV-related facial lipoatrophy.We treated with high-density hyaluronic acid injections HIV patients affected by moderate to severe facial lipoatrophy and evaluated them at last follow-up, at a minimum of 36 weeks. Physician-related outcomes included pre-and post-treatment ultrasound measurement of the soft-tissue thickness of the cheeks and qualitative assessment of aesthetic results by means of the Global Aesthetic Improvement Scale using pre- and post-treatment photos of the patients. Patient satisfaction outcomes were evaluated with the VAS-face scale and Freiburg test.Fifty-four patients were studied. The median number of treatment sessions was 3 and the median length of treatment was 5.5 months. The thickness of the soft tissues of the cheek increased significantly from 9.45 to 13.12 mm (p&lt;0.0001). On the basis of the Global Aesthetic Improvement Scale, 87.5% of the patients were judged as "much improved" or "improved." Patient satisfaction at 1 year from the end of treatment was proven (VAS-face: 77.9; Freiburg questionnaire: 93.6% of patients were satisfied or very satisfied). Complications were limited to mild redness and swelling in the early postoperative period.Long-term improvement of facial contour and excellent patient satisfaction, in the absence of severe side effects, were obtained by the injection of high-density hyaluronic acid (STYLAGE\uae XL) in HIV patients with facial lipoatrophy

Radiative forcing of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide: a significant revision of the methane radiative forcing

New calculations of the radiative forcing (RF) are presented for the three main well‐mixed greenhouse gases, methane, nitrous oxide, and carbon dioxide. Methane’s RF is particularly impacted because of the inclusion of the shortwave forcing; the 1750–2011 RF is about 25% higher (increasing from 0.48 W m−2 to 0.61 W m−2) compared to the value in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2013 assessment; the 100 year global warming potential is 14% higher than the IPCC value. We present new simplified expressions to calculate RF. Unlike previous expressions used by IPCC, the new ones include the overlap between CO2 and N2O; for N2O forcing, the CO2 overlap can be as important as the CH4 overlap. The 1750–2011 CO2 RF is within 1% of IPCC’s value but is about 10% higher when CO2 amounts reach 2000 ppm, a value projected to be possible under the extended RCP8.5 scenario