A Limited area model intercomparison on the "Montserrat-2000" flash-flood event using statistical and deterministic methods

In the scope of the European project Hydroptimet, INTERREG IIIB-MEDOCC programme, limited area model (LAM) intercomparison of intense events that produced many damages to people and territory is performed. As the comparison is limited to single case studies, the work is not meant to provide a measure of the different models' skill, but to identify the key model factors useful to give a good forecast on such a kind of meteorological phenomena. This work focuses on the Spanish flash-flood event, also known as "Montserrat-2000" event. The study is performed using forecast data from seven operational LAMs, placed at partners' disposal via the Hydroptimet ftp site, and observed data from Catalonia rain gauge network. To improve the event analysis, satellite rainfall estimates have been also considered. For statistical evaluation of quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs), several non-parametric skill scores based on contingency tables have been used. Furthermore, for each model run it has been possible to identify Catalonia regions affected by misses and false alarms using contingency table elements. Moreover, the standard "eyeball" analysis of forecast and observed precipitation fields has been supported by the use of a state-of-the-art diagnostic method, the contiguous rain area (CRA) analysis. This method allows to quantify the spatial shift forecast error and to identify the error sources that affected each model forecasts. High-resolution modelling and domain size seem to have a key role for providing a skillful forecast. Further work is needed to support this statement, including verification using a wider observational data set

Crack healing under sustained load in concrete: An experimental/numerical study

The need of sustainable resilient structures and infrastructures push towards the use of cementitious materials able to heal micro-cracks and defects. For real structural application under service loading the time-dependent behavior is of the utmost importance, especially in presence of cracks which can lead to a nonlinear creep behavior that might cause the structural failure. Now the new challenge is to study and quantify the effect of crack-healing on the nonlinear creep behavior. This study aims at the following goals: 1) to characterize with experimental investigations the effect of the healing in tests in which the specimens, along the exposure time and under controlled environmental conditions, are under sustained load, the expected service load, determined as a fraction of the pre-cracking load; 2) develop a comprehensive numerical framework for the interpretation and simulation of the experimentally observed results. To this purpose an experimental investigation is currently ongoing at Politecnico di Milano with reference to an Ultra High-Performance Concrete developed in the framework of the H2020 ReSHEALience project for exposure to extremely aggressive environments. The numerical framework is based on the recent developments of the multiphysics lattice particle model

Multidisciplinary assessment and prediction tools addressing coastal vulnerability to erosion and sea level rise. Lesson learnt from the RITMARE Project

Natural processes and human activities are strongly connected, and sometimes con icting, in the evolution of coastal and transitional environments. The strong anthropic pressure on coastal regions, together with the e ects of a changing climate, demands nowadays more pressingly for e cient tools to characterise and predict the behaviour of such systems in order to de ne appropriate response strategies. This requires a deep understanding of the connections among di erent drivers and di erent scales, a multidisciplinary challenge in which heterogeneous data, approaches and scales need to be framed within a consistent dynamical description. To this aim, a speci c research line was dedicated to \u201cCoastal Vulnerability to Erosion and Sea Level Rise\u201d within the RITMARE Project, supported by the Italian Ministry of University and Research with the purpose of integrating the Italian Marine community in shared research elds in the period 2012-2017. The activities carried out in this framework have been moving along interconnected branches tackling the themes related with sea level rise, ocean modelling, and geomorphological assessment in present conditions and in di erent climate change scenarios, with an eye on the exploitation of marine sand as a strategic resource. In this contribution we review the main outcomes of this multidisciplinary and coordinated research. Besides discussing the advances and the possibilities from state-of-the art technologies and methodologies, we point out that a coordinated use of the described tools should be promoted in the design of survey and monitoring activities, as well as in the exploitation of already collected data. Expected outcomes of this strategy include the implementation of improved policies and infrastructures for coastal protection, anked by reliable short-term forecasting systems and e cient rapid response protocols, in the framework of an integrated coastal planning at the multi-decadal scale

Overview of the first HyMeX Special Observation Period over Italy: observations and model results

Abstract. The Special Observation Period (SOP1), part of the HyMeX campaign (Hydrological cycle in the Mediterranean Experiments, 5 September–6 November 2012), was dedicated to heavy precipitation events and flash floods in the western Mediterranean, and three Italian hydro-meteorological monitoring sites were identified: Liguria–Tuscany, northeastern Italy and central Italy. The extraordinary deployment of advanced instrumentation, including instrumented aircrafts, and the use of several different operational weather forecast models, including hydrological models and marine models, allowed an unprecedented monitoring and analysis of high-impact weather events around the Italian hydro-meteorological sites. This activity has seen strong collaboration between the Italian scientific and operational communities. In this paper an overview of the Italian organization during SOP1 is provided, and selected Intensive Observation Periods (IOPs) are described. A significant event for each Italian target area is chosen for this analysis: IOP2 (12–13 September 2012) in northeastern Italy, IOP13 (15–16 October 2012) in central Italy and IOP19 (3–5 November 2012) in Liguria and Tuscany. For each IOP the meteorological characteristics, together with special observations and weather forecasts, are analyzed with the aim of highlighting strengths and weaknesses of the forecast modeling systems, including the hydrological impacts. The usefulness of having different weather forecast operational chains characterized by different numerical weather prediction models and/or different model set up or initial conditions is finally shown for one of the events (IOP19)

"Delirium Day": A nationwide point prevalence study of delirium in older hospitalized patients using an easy standardized diagnostic tool

Background: To date, delirium prevalence in adult acute hospital populations has been estimated generally from pooled findings of single-center studies and/or among specific patient populations. Furthermore, the number of participants in these studies has not exceeded a few hundred. To overcome these limitations, we have determined, in a multicenter study, the prevalence of delirium over a single day among a large population of patients admitted to acute and rehabilitation hospital wards in Italy. Methods: This is a point prevalence study (called "Delirium Day") including 1867 older patients (aged 65 years or more) across 108 acute and 12 rehabilitation wards in Italian hospitals. Delirium was assessed on the same day in all patients using the 4AT, a validated and briefly administered tool which does not require training. We also collected data regarding motoric subtypes of delirium, functional and nutritional status, dementia, comorbidity, medications, feeding tubes, peripheral venous and urinary catheters, and physical restraints. Results: The mean sample age was 82.0 \ub1 7.5 years (58 % female). Overall, 429 patients (22.9 %) had delirium. Hypoactive was the commonest subtype (132/344 patients, 38.5 %), followed by mixed, hyperactive, and nonmotoric delirium. The prevalence was highest in Neurology (28.5 %) and Geriatrics (24.7 %), lowest in Rehabilitation (14.0 %), and intermediate in Orthopedic (20.6 %) and Internal Medicine wards (21.4 %). In a multivariable logistic regression, age (odds ratio [OR] 1.03, 95 % confidence interval [CI] 1.01-1.05), Activities of Daily Living dependence (OR 1.19, 95 % CI 1.12-1.27), dementia (OR 3.25, 95 % CI 2.41-4.38), malnutrition (OR 2.01, 95 % CI 1.29-3.14), and use of antipsychotics (OR 2.03, 95 % CI 1.45-2.82), feeding tubes (OR 2.51, 95 % CI 1.11-5.66), peripheral venous catheters (OR 1.41, 95 % CI 1.06-1.87), urinary catheters (OR 1.73, 95 % CI 1.30-2.29), and physical restraints (OR 1.84, 95 % CI 1.40-2.40) were associated with delirium. Admission to Neurology wards was also associated with delirium (OR 2.00, 95 % CI 1.29-3.14), while admission to other settings was not. Conclusions: Delirium occurred in more than one out of five patients in acute and rehabilitation hospital wards. Prevalence was highest in Neurology and lowest in Rehabilitation divisions. The "Delirium Day" project might become a useful method to assess delirium across hospital settings and a benchmarking platform for future surveys

Measurement of antiproton production from antihyperon decays in pHe collisions at √sNN=110GeV

The interpretation of cosmic antiproton flux measurements from space-borne experiments is currently limited by the knowledge of the antiproton production cross-section in collisions between primary cosmic rays and the interstellar medium. Using collisions of protons with an energy of 6.5 TeV incident on helium nuclei at rest in the proximity of the interaction region of the LHCb experiment, the ratio of antiprotons originating from antihyperon decays to prompt production is measured for antiproton momenta between 12 and 110GeV\!/c . The dominant antihyperon contribution, namely Λ¯ → p¯ π+ decays from promptly produced Λ¯ particles, is also exclusively measured. The results complement the measurement of prompt antiproton production obtained from the same data sample. At the energy scale of this measurement, the antihyperon contributions to antiproton production are observed to be significantly larger than predictions of commonly used hadronic production models

Measurement of antiproton production from antihyperon decays in p He collisions at √sNN = 110 GeV

The interpretation of cosmic antiproton flux measurements from space-borne experiments is currently limited by the knowledge of the antiproton production cross-section in collisions between primary cosmic rays and the interstellar medium. Using collisions of protons with an energy of 6.5TeV incident on helium nuclei at rest in the proximity of the interaction region of the LHCb experiment, the ratio of antiprotons originating from antihyperon decays to prompt production is measured for antiproton momenta between 12 and 110GeV. The dominant antihyperon contribution, namely Λ¯→p¯π+ decays from promptly produced Λ¯ particles, is also exclusively measured. The results complement the measurement of prompt antiproton production obtained from the same data sample. At the energy scale of this measurement, the antihyperon contributions to antiproton production are observed to be significantly larger than predictions of commonly used hadronic production models