Options to Accelerate Ozone Recovery: Ozone and Climate Benefits

The humankind or anthropogenic influence on ozone primarily originated from the chlorofluorocarbons and halons (chlorine and bromine). Representatives from governments have met periodically over the years to establish international regulations starting with the Montreal Protocol in 1987, which greatly limited the release of these ozone-depleting substances (DDSs). Two global models have been used to investigate the impact of hypothetical reductions in future emissions of ODSs on total column ozone. The investigations primarily focused on chlorine- and bromine-containing gases, but some computations also included nitrous oxide (N2O). The Montreal Protocol with ODS controls have been so successful that further regulations of chlorine- and bromine-containing gases could have only a fraction of the impact that regulations already in force have had. if all anthropogenic ODS emissions were halted beginning in 2011, ozone is calculated to be higher by about 1-2% during the period 2030-2100 compared to a case of no additional ODS restrictions. Chlorine- and bromine-containing gases and nitrous oxide are also greenhouse gases and lead to warming of the troposphere. Elimination of N 20 emissions would result in a reduction of radiative forcing of 0.23 W/sq m in 2100 than presently computed and destruction of the CFC bank would produce a reduction in radiative forcing of 0.005 W/sq m in 2100. This paper provides a quantitative way to consider future regulations of the CFC bank and N 20 emission

What Would Have Happened to the Ozone Layer if Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) had not been Regulated?

Ozone depletion by chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) was first proposed by Molina and Rowland in their 1974 Nature paper. Since that time, the sci entific connection between ozone losses and CFCs and other ozone depl eting substances (ODSs) has been firmly established with laboratory m easurements, atmospheric observations, and modeling research. This science research led to the implementation of international agreements t hat largely stopped the production of ODSs. In this study we use a fu lly-coupled radiation-chemical-dynamical model to simulate a future world where ODSs were never regulated and ODS production grew at an ann ual rate of 3%. In this "world avoided" simulation 1.7 % of the globa lly-average column ozone is destroyed by 2020, and 67% is destroyed b y 2065 in comparison to 1980. Large ozone depletions in the polar region become year-round rather than just seasonal as is currently observ ed in the Antarctic ozone hole. Very large temperature decreases are observed in response to circulation changes and decreased shortwave radiation absorption by ozone. Ozone levels in the tropical lower strat osphere remain constant until about 2053 and then collapse to near ze ro by 2058 as a result of heterogeneous chemical processes (as curren tly observed in the Antarctic ozone hole). The tropical cooling that triggers the ozone collapse is caused by an increase of the tropical upwelling. In response to ozone changes, ultraviolet radiation increa ses, more than doubling the erythemal radiation in the northern summer midlatitudes by 2060

Ruthenium polypyridyl complexes and their modes of interaction with DNA : is there a correlation between these interactions and the antitumor activity of the compounds?

Various interaction modes between a group of six ruthenium polypyridyl complexes and DNA have been studied using a number of spectroscopic techniques. Five mononuclear species were selected with formula [Ru(tpy) L1L2](2-n)?, and one closely related dinuclear cation of formula [{Ru(apy)(tpy)}2{l-H2N(CH2)6NH2}]4?. The ligand tpy is 2,20:60,200-terpyridine and the ligand L1 is a bidentate ligand, namely, apy (2,20-azobispyridine), 2-phenylazopyridine, or 2-phenylpyridinylmethylene amine. The ligand L2 is a labile monodentate ligand, being Cl-, H2O, or CH3CN. All six species containing a labile L2 were found to be able to coordinate to the DNA model base 9-ethylguanine by 1H NMR and mass spectrometry. The dinuclear cationic species, which has no positions available for coordination to a DNA base, was studied for comparison purposes. The interactions between a selection of four representative complexes and calf-thymus DNA were studied by circular and linear dichroism. To explore a possible relation between DNA-binding ability and toxicity, all compounds were screened for anticancer activity in a variety of cancer cell lines, showing in some cases an activity which is comparable to that of cisplatin. Comparison of the details of the compound structures, their DNA binding, and their toxicity allows the exploration of structure–activity relationships that might be used to guide optimization of the activity of agents of this class of compounds

Overcoming establishment thresholds for peat mosses in human-made bog pools

Globally, peatlands have been affected by drainage and peat extraction, with adverse effects on their functioning and services. To restore peat‐forming vegetation, drained bogs are being rewetted on a large scale. Although this practice results in higher groundwater levels, unfortunately it often creates deep lakes in parts where peat was extracted to greater depths than the surroundings. Revegetation of these deeper waters by peat mosses appears to be challenging due to strong abiotic feedbacks that keep these systems in an undesired bare state. In this study, we theoretically explore if a floating peat mat and an open human‐made bog lake can be considered two alternative stable states using a simple model, and experimentally test in the field whether stable states are present, and whether a state shift can be accomplished using floating biodegradable structures that mimic buoyant peat. We transplanted two peat moss species into these structures (pioneer sp. Sphagnum cuspidatum and later‐successional sp. S. palustre) with and without additional organic substrate. Our model suggests that these open human‐made bog lakes and floating peat mats can indeed be regarded as alternative stable states. Natural recovery by spontaneous peat moss growth, i.e., a state shift from open water to floating mats, is only possible when the water table is sufficiently shallow to avoid light limitation (<0.29 m at our site). Our experiment revealed that alternative stable states are present and that the floating structures facilitated the growth of pioneer S. cuspidatum and vascular plants. Organic substrate addition particularly facilitated vascular plant growth, which correlated to higher moss height. The structures remained too wet for the late‐successional species S. palustre. We conclude that open water and floating peat mats in human‐made bog lakes can be considered two alternative stable states, and that temporary floating establishment structures can induce a state shift from the open water state to peat‐forming vegetation state. These findings imply that for successful restoration, there is a clear water depth threshold to enable peat moss growth and there is no need for addition of large amounts of donor‐peat substrate. Correct species selection for restoration is crucial for success

The shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions to 2500

Anthropogenic increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are the main driver of current and future climate change. The integrated assessment community has quantified anthropogenic emissions for the shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) scenarios, each of which represents a different future socio-economic projection and political environment. Here, we provide the greenhouse gas concentrations for these SSP scenarios – using the reduced-complexity climate–carbon-cycle model MAGICC7.0. We extend historical, observationally based concentration data with SSP concentration projections from 2015 to 2500 for 43 greenhouse gases with monthly and latitudinal resolution. CO2 concentrations by 2100 range from 393 to 1135 ppm for the lowest (SSP1-1.9) and highest (SSP5-8.5) emission scenarios, respectively. We also provide the concentration extensions beyond 2100 based on assumptions regarding the trajectories of fossil fuels and land use change emissions, net negative emissions, and the fraction of non-CO2 emissions. By 2150, CO2 concentrations in the lowest emission scenario are approximately 350 ppm and approximately plateau at that level until 2500, whereas the highest fossil-fuel-driven scenario projects CO2 concentrations of 1737 ppm and reaches concentrations beyond 2000 ppm by 2250. We estimate that the share of CO2 in the total radiative forcing contribution of all considered 43 long-lived greenhouse gases increases from 66 % for the present day to roughly 68 % to 85 % by the time of maximum forcing in the 21st century. For this estimation, we updated simple radiative forcing parameterizations that reflect the Oslo Line-By-Line model results. In comparison to the representative concentration pathways (RCPs), the five main SSPs (SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) are more evenly spaced and extend to lower 2100 radiative forcing and temperatures. Performing two pairs of six-member historical ensembles with CESM1.2.2, we estimate the effect on surface air temperatures of applying latitudinally and seasonally resolved GHG concentrations. We find that the ensemble differences in the March–April–May (MAM) season provide a regional warming in higher northern latitudes of up to 0.4 K over the historical period, latitudinally averaged of about 0.1 K, which we estimate to be comparable to the upper bound (∼5 % level) of natural variability. In comparison to the comparatively straight line of the last 2000 years, the greenhouse gas concentrations since the onset of the industrial period and this studies' projections over the next 100 to 500 years unequivocally depict a “hockey-stick” upwards shape. The SSP concentration time series derived in this study provide a harmonized set of input assumptions for long-term climate science analysis; they also provide an indication of the wide set of futures that societal developments and policy implementations can lead to – ranging from multiple degrees of future warming on the one side to approximately 1.5 ∘C warming on the other

Air and water pollution over time and industries with stochastic dominance

We employ a stochastic dominance (SD) approach to analyze the components that contribute to environmental degradation over time. The variables include countries\u2019 greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and water pollution. Our approach is based on pair-wise SD tests. First, we study the dynamic progress of each separate variable over time, from 1990 to 2005, within 5-year horizons. Then, pair-wise SD tests are used to study the major industry contributors to the overall GHG emissions and water pollution at any given time, to uncover the industry which contributes the most to total emissions and water pollution. While CO2 emissions increased in the first order SD sense over 15 years, water pollution increased in a second-order SD sense. Electricity and heat production were the major contributors to the CO2 emissions, while the food industry gradually became the major water polluting industry over time. SD sense over 15 years, water pollution increased in a second-order SD sense. Electricity and heat production were the major contributors to the CO2 emissions, while the food industry gradually

Hair Cortisol in Twins: Heritability and Genetic Overlap with Psychological Variables and Stress-System Genes

Hair cortisol concentration (HCC) is a promising measure of long-Term hypothalamus-pituitary-Adrenal (HPA) axis activity. Previous research has suggested an association between HCC and psychological variables, and initial studies of inter-individual variance in HCC have implicated genetic factors. However, whether HCC and psychological variables share genetic risk factors remains unclear. The aims of the present twin study were to: (i) assess the heritability of HCC; (ii) estimate the phenotypic and genetic correlation between HPA axis activity and the psychological variables perceived stress, depressive symptoms, and neuroticism; using formal genetic twin models and molecular genetic methods, i.e. polygenic risk scores (PRS). HCC was measured in 671 adolescents and young adults. These included 115 monozygotic and 183 dizygotic twin-pairs. For 432 subjects PRS scores for plasma cortisol, major depression, and neuroticism were calculated using data from large genome wide association studies. The twin model revealed a heritability for HCC of 72%. No significant phenotypic or genetic correlation was found between HCC and the three psychological variables of interest. PRS did not explain variance in HCC. The present data suggest that HCC is highly heritable. However, the data do not support a strong biological link between HCC and any of the investigated psychological variables

Projections of hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) emissions and the resulting global warming based on recent trends in observed abundances and current policies

The emissions of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) have increased significantly in the past 2 decades, primarily as a result of the phaseout of ozone-depleting substances under the Montreal Protocol and the use of HFCs as their replacements. In 2015, large increases were projected in HFC use and emissions in this century in the absence of regulations, contributing up to 0.5° C to global surface warming by 2100. In 2019, the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol came into force with the goal of limiting the use of HFCs globally, and currently, regulations to limit the use of HFCs are in effect in several countries. Here, we analyze trends in HFC emissions inferred from observations of atmospheric abundances and compare them with previous projections. Total CO2eq. inferred HFC emissions continue to increase through 2019 (to about 0.8 GtCO2eq.yr-1) but are about 20 % lower than previously projected for 2017-2019, mainly because of the lower global emissions of HFC-143a. This indicates that HFCs are used much less in industrial and commercial refrigeration (ICR) applications than previously projected. This is supported by data reported by the developed countries and the lower reported consumption of HFC-143a in China. Because this time period preceded the beginning of the Kigali provisions, this reduction cannot be linked directly to the provisions of the Kigali Amendment. However, it could indicate that companies transitioned away from the HFC-143a with its high global warming potential (GWP) for ICR applications in anticipation of national or global mandates. There are two new HFC scenarios developed based (1) on current trends in HFC use and Kigali-independent (K-I) control policies currently existing in several countries and (2) current HFC trends and compliance with the Kigali Amendment (KA-2022). These current policies reduce projected emissions in 2050 from the previously calculated 4.0-5.3 GtCO2eq.yr-1 to 1.9-3.6 GtCO2eq.yr-1. The added provisions of the Kigali Amendment are projected to reduce the emissions further to 0.9-1.0 GtCO2eq.yr-1 in 2050. Without any controls, projections suggest a HFC contribution of 0.28-0.44° C to global surface warming by 2100, compared to a temperature contribution of 0.14-0.31° C that is projected considering the national K-I policies current in place. Warming from HFCs is additionally limited by the Kigali Amendment controls to a contribution of about 0.04°C by 2100