The Business Case for a Journey Planning and Ticketing App—Comparison between a Simulation Analysis and Real-World Data

Successful development of “Mobility-as-a-Service” (MaaS) schemes could be transformative to our transport systems and critical for achieving sustainable cities. There are high hopes for mobile phone applications that offer both journey planning and ticketing across all the available transport modes, but these are in their infancy, with little understanding of the correct approach to business models and governance. In this study, we develop a system dynamics diffusion model that represents the uptake of such an app, based on one developed and released in West Yorkshire, UK. We perform sensitivity and uncertainty tests on user uptake and app operating profitability, and analyse these in three key areas of marketing, competition, and costs. Comparison to early uptake data is included to demonstrate accuracy of model behaviour and would suggest market failure by month 12 without stronger marketing, even if additional tickets and functions are offered. In response to this, we offer further insights on the need for direct targeted marketing to ensure mass market adoption, the importance of understanding a realistic potential adopter pool, the awareness of competing apps, and the high uncertainty that exists in this market

Pathways to achieving radically different urban walking and cycling futures in the UK by 2030

This paper builds upon earlier work which was presented at Walk21 in 2009 and 2010 which outlined the development of a number of radically different visions for the role of walking and cycling in urban areas in the year 2030. These visions, which were developed through consultation with a wide range of stakeholders, present a 2030 where walking and cycling play a significantly greater role in urban transportation than is currently the case, accounting for as much as 80% of urban trips in the most extreme vision. Previous reported work had focussed on the kinds of measures, contextual background and lifestyle changes which would be required to support such visions, how urban areas may appear and the practicalities of daily life. Subsequent research (not yet reported in the public domain) has developed methods for constructing pathways to show how these visions might be reached. A pathway (in a specific city) to the successful occurrence of a vision is defined as being made up of a combination of developments on two separate levels: a Macro level , involving both developments external to the transport system and developments within the transport system but “out of control” of the local authority of the city concerned ; and a Micro level, involving developments within the control of the city’s local authority. The trajectory of developments on a particular level is referred to as a ‘storyline’, so that a distinction is made between Macro - storylines and Micro- storylines. Whilst generic macro - storylines have been developed which are relevant to all UK cities, micro - storylines can only be constructed ‘locally’ by those with sufficient knowledge of a particular city. The focus of the current paper is upon two workshops carried out in the summer of 2011 in the UK cities of Leeds and Norwich. The main purpose of these workshops was to explore how one of the visions could be mapped/adapted to their specific local circumstances and to develop pathways for achieving this vision, taking into account three alternative macro - storylines. The workshops aimed to attract relatively senior people from the local authorities in each area and representatives of stakeholder groups . The workshop size was between 10 - 15 people. The underlying aim of such exercises is to encourage city authorities and stakeholders to think in a more structured, systematic way about how the various potentially -conflicting issues concerning walking and cycling would play out in a long - term future, taking into account that the ‘external environment’ (e.g. the national economy) is highly unpredictable. The paper presents the results from the Leeds and Norwich workshops in terms of the local visions and pathways that they produced. Special attention is paid to results concerned with policies that directly facilitate walking, whilst recognising that a large number of factors (all urban transport modes, land use patterns, ‘society’) have impacts (direct or indirect) on walking. Various conclusions are presented, both with regard to transport policy and the methodology for constructing the visions/pathways and running the workshops

Personal Carbon Trading and fuel price increases in the transport sector: an exploratory study of public response in the UK

Large reductions of greenhouse gas emissions are required in order to avoid the worst impacts of climate change. Road transport is a significant contributor to UK CO2 emissions, with the majority arising from personal road transport. This paper analyses Personal Carbon Trading (PCT) as a potentially powerful climate change policy tool and presents findings from an exploratory survey of public opinion. A working model of a PCT scheme with a fixed carbon cap was designed to achieve a 60% reduction of CO2 emissions from personal road transport by 2050. A proportion of the annual carbon budget would be given to individuals as a free carbon permit allocation. There is an opportunity to sell unused permits. Fuel price increases (FPI) were recognised as having the potential to achieve an identical emissions target at a much lower cost. A series of individual interviews were conducted to explore opinions related to the impacts, effectiveness, fairness and acceptability of both measures. Bespoke software was used to record behavioural response. The findings indicate that certain design aspects of the PCT scheme led to it being preferred to the FPI and suggest that the potential behavioural response to PCT may be greater than for a FPI. However, given that the sample was small and biased towards the highly educated and those with above average incomes, the findings should be considered as preliminary indications. Further detailed research is required

Automated Detection of Missing Links in Bicycle Networks

Cycling is an effective solution for making urban transport more sustainable. However, bicycle networks are typically developed in a slow, piecewise process that leaves open a large number of gaps, even in well developed cycling cities like Copenhagen. Here, we develop the IPDC procedure (Identify, Prioritize, Decluster, Classify) for finding the most important missing links in urban bicycle networks, using data from OpenStreetMap. In this procedure we first identify all possible gaps following a multiplex network approach, prioritize them according to a flow-based metric, decluster emerging gap clusters, and manually classify the types of gaps. We apply the IPDC procedure to Copenhagen and report the 105 top priority gaps. For evaluation, we compare these gaps with the city's most recent Cycle Path Prioritization Plan and find considerable overlaps. Our results show how network analysis with minimal data requirements can serve as a cost-efficient support tool for bicycle network planning. By taking into account the whole city network for consolidating urban bicycle infrastructure, our data-driven framework can complement localized, manual planning processes for more effective, city-wide decision-making.Comment: 29 pages, 12 figures + supplementary material. Geographical Analysis (2022): Online Version of Record before inclusion in an issu

Monitoring Traffic and Emissions by Floating Car Data

Intelligent traffic management is widely acknowledged as a means to optimise the utilisation of existing infrastructure capacities. A major requirement for intelligent traffic management is the collection of high quality data on traffic conditions in order to generate accurate real-time traffic information. The approach to be described here generates this information by a fleet of taxis equipped with GPS which act as Floating-Car-Data (FCD) provider for a number of metropolitan areas. The first part of this paper describes the methodology of setting up this data base. The information collected enables various applications such as real-time traffic monitoring, time-dynamic routing and fleet management. The second part of the paper proposes a framework for using these data additionally to include environmental effects into intelligent traffic management systems. To this end, a mapping between travel times and traffic flows is proposed. Some challenges related to the computation of emissions from velocity profiles are discussed. Equipped with these ingredients, an environmentally friendly intelligent traffic management might be in reach

Understanding the Operation of Motorcycle Taxi Drivers in Nigeria Using Causal Loop Diagram

Road safety is a subject of concern the world over and many studies have looked into how to improve safe travel. Motorcycles, including motorcycle taxis, are particularly vulnerable. This paper reports the outcome of a study conducted on motorcycle taxi safety problems using a system dynamics method. Qualitative data was obtained from the field and analysed using qualitative analysis methods. The outcome of the qualitative analysis led to the formulation of a dynamic hypothesis for a system dynamics approach, whose first step was to develop and analyse a causal loop diagram [CLD]. This CLD demonstrates how deterrence, a behavioural pattern that can be produced by the appropriate application of sanctions, is both strengthened and weakened within the system. The paper uses this analysis to provide insights about the behavioural patterns of motorcycle taxi operation in Nigeria. These insights include the possibility of maintaining the system at equilibrium for a desired level of deterrence as well as the possibility of breaking undesirable cycles of bribery and jumping arrest loops. These insights can also be useful in other countries of the world where motorcycle taxis operate

A Systemic Analysis of Impacts of Individual and Shared Automated Mobility in Austria

Rationale: Increasing digitalization and automation is expected to significantly change the transport system, mobility and settlement structures. A decade ago automated, self-driving vehicles were nothing more than an unrealistic (boyhood) dream. But today the concept of highly and fully automated vehicles is rapidly becoming a reality, with a series of real-world trial applications underway. Government plans and industry predictions expect automation to be introduced from the early 2020s onwards. Nevertheless, there is still a high level of uncertainty in which form and to what extent automated vehicles will enter the market. Furthermore, there are ongoing discussions concerning net effects of positive and negative aspects of automation. Background: The authors have been involved in several research projects analyzing potential impacts of automated driving. The EU funded project CityMobil (Towards Advanced Road Transport for the Urban Environment) was one of first to address automated driving on a large scale. As part of this project the System Dynamics based model MARS (Metropolitan Activity Relocation Simulator) was adapted to assess scenarios of automated driving in four European cities. Simulations demonstrated that automated vehicles integrated into public transport have a potential to reduce car kilometers travelled and improve carbon footprint. On the contrary, privately owned automated vehicles lead to an increase in car kilometers travelled and carbon footprint, unless propulsion technology is changed. While the focus of CityMobil was on the urban scale, the nationally funded Austrian project Shared Autonomy (Potential Effects of the Take-up of Automated Vehicles in Rural Areas – own translation) focused on rural areas. The findings of Shared Autonomy show potential contributions of automated cars to improve the environmental situation and social inclusion in rural areas. Finally, the nationally funded Austrian project SAFiP (System Scenarios Automated Driving in Personal Mobility) takes a look at the national territory of Austria. Method: The relationship between vehicle automation, travel demand and environmental effects consists of a multitude of complex cause-effect-chains. The toolbox of System Dynamics offers appropriate methods to tackle such complexities. Causal Loop Diagrams are used to analyze and discuss relevant cause-effect-chains and are used to adapt an existing Stock-Flow-Model of the Austrian land use and transport demand system. The modified Stock-Flow-Model is used for a quantitative impact assessment. Sensitivity analysis in form of Monte-Carlo-Simulations is employed to tackle the high level of uncertainty concerning key factors. Findings, results: The key factors, influencing mode choice and travel demand, are generalized costs of travel time, weighted costs of use and availability. The automation of driving, expressed as the share of highly and fully automated vehicles in the fleet, is influencing all three key factors via different cause-effect-chains and feedback loops. In SAFiP we identified four key impact sources: automated and remote parking, road capacity and travel speed, value of in-vehicle time and widening the range of users. Sensitivity tests for each of the impact sources have been carried out. Widening the range of users has the highest impact on a national level, potentially increasing car kilometers by about 17 percent in 2050. Remote parking increases car kilometers by about 5 percent in total, ranging from about 1 percent in peripheral districts to about 17 percent in Vienna

Visions for a walking and cycling focussed urban transport system

Walking and cycling can make a considerable contribution to sustainable transport goals, building healthier and more sustainable communities and contributing to traffic and pollution reduction. There have been many national and local initiatives to promote walking and cycling, but without a long term vision and consistent strategy it is difficult to see how a significant change may be achieved. This paper presents three alternative visions for the role of walking and cycling in urban areas for the year 2030: each vision illustrates a ‘desirable’ walking- and cycling-oriented transport system against a different ‘exogenous social background’. These visions have been developed through a process of expert discussion and review and are intended to provide a stimulus for debate on the potential for and desirability of such alternative futures. Each is based on the UK and represents a substantial change to the current situation: in particular, each of the visions presents a view of a society where walking and cycling are considerably more important than is currently the case and where these modes cater for a much higher proportion of urban transport needs than at present. The visions show pictures of urban environments where dependence on motor vehicles has been reduced, in two of the visions to very low levels. The methodological approach for devising visions is informed by work on ‘utopian thinking’: a key concept underlying this approach is one of viewing the future in social constructivist terms (i.e. the future is what ‘we’, as a society, make it) rather than considering the future as something that can be ‘scientifically’ predicted by the extrapolation of current trends

How can health care organisations make and justify decisions about risk reduction? Lessons from a cross-industry review and a health care stakeholder consensus development process

Interventions to reduce risk often have an associated cost. In UK industries decisions about risk reduction are made and justified within a shared regulatory framework that requires that risk be reduced as low as reasonably practicable. In health care no such regulatory framework exists, and the practice of making decisions about risk reduction is varied and lacks transparency. Can health care organisations learn from relevant industry experiences about making and justifying risk reduction decisions? This paper presents lessons from a qualitative study undertaken with 21 participants from five industries about how such decisions are made and justified in UK industry. Recommendations were developed based on a consensus development exercise undertaken with 20 health care stakeholders. The paper argues that there is a need in health care to develop a regulatory framework and an agreed process for managing explicitly the trade-off between risk reduction and cost. The framework should include guidance about a health care specific notion of acceptable levels of risk, guidance about standardised risk reduction interventions, it should include regulatory incentives for health care organisations to reduce risk, and it should encourage the adoption of an approach for documenting explicitly an organisation’s risk position

International Comparison of Transport Appraisal Practice - Annex 2 Germany Country Report

This report is a review of recent developments in economic appraisal in the transport sector and the use of appraisal in the decision making process in Germany. It is an annex to a report in which appraisal practice in England, and its development, is compared with that in Germany, Netherlands, Sweden, USA, Australia (NSW), and New Zealand as exemplars of good practice and varied institutional arrangements