Predicting species dominance shifts across elevation gradients in mountain forests in Greece under a warmer and drier climate

The Mediterranean Basin is expected to face warmer and drier conditions in the future, following projected increases in temperature and declines in precipitation. The aim of this study is to explore how forests dominated by Abies borisii-regis, Abies cephalonica, Fagus sylvatica, Pinus nigra and Quercus frainetto will respond under such conditions. We combined an individual-based model (GREFOS), with a novel tree ring data set in order to constrain tree diameter growth and to account for inter- and intraspecific growth variability. We used wood density data to infer tree longevity, taking into account inter- and intraspecific variability. The model was applied at three 500-m-wide elevation gradients at Taygetos in Peloponnese, at Agrafa on Southern Pindos and at Valia Kalda on Northern Pindos in Greece. Simulations adequately represented species distribution and abundance across the elevation gradients under current climate. We subsequently used the model to estimate species and functional trait shifts under warmer and drier future conditions based on the IPCC A1B scenario. In all three sites, a retreat of less drought-tolerant species and an upward shift of more drought-tolerant species were simulated. These shifts were also associated with changes in two key functional traits, in particular maximum radial growth rate and wood density. Drought-tolerant species presented an increase in their average maximal growth and decrease in their average wood density, in contrast to less drought-tolerant species

Functional trait variation among and within species and plant functional types in mountainous Mediterranean forests

Plant structural and biochemical traits are frequently used to characterise the life history of plants. Although some common patterns of trait covariation have been identified, recent studies suggest these patterns of covariation may differ with growing location and/or plant functional type (PFT). Mediterranean forest tree/shrub species are often divided into three PFTs based on their leaf habit and form, being classified as either needleleaf evergreen (Ne), broadleaf evergreen (Be), or broadleaf deciduous (Bd). Working across 61 mountainous Mediterranean forest sites of contrasting climate and soil type, we sampled and analysed 626 individuals in order to evaluate differences in key foliage trait covariation as modulated by growing conditions both within and between the Ne, Be, and Bd functional types. We found significant differences between PFTs for most traits. When considered across PFTs and by ignoring intraspecific variation, three independent functional dimensions supporting the Leaf-Height-Seed framework were identified. Some traits illustrated a common scaling relationship across and within PFTs, but others scaled differently when considered across PFTs or even within PFTs. For most traits much of the observed variation was attributable to PFT identity and not to growing location, although for some traits there was a strong environmental component and considerable intraspecific and residual variation. Nevertheless, environmental conditions as related to water availability during the dry season and to a smaller extend to soil nutrient status and soil texture, clearly influenced trait values. When compared across species, about half of the trait-environment relationships were species-specific. Our study highlights the importance of the ecological scale within which trait covariation is considered and suggests that at regional to local scales, common trait-by-trait scaling relationships should be treated with caution. PFT definitions by themselves can potentially be an important predictor variable when inferring one trait from another. These findings have important implications for local scale dynamic vegetation models

Effects of insularity on insect leaf herbivory and chemical defences in a Mediterranean oak species

Aim Research on plant–herbivore interactions has shown that islands typically have low abundances and diversity of herbivores because of barriers to dispersal, isolation and reduced land area. Islands commonly have lower levels of herbivory relative to mainland regions, and, as a consequence, insular plants should exhibit lower levels of defences than their mainland counterparts. Despite these predictions, there are significant gaps in our understanding of insularity effects on plant–herbivore interactions. For instance, most work addressing the effects of insularity on plant–herbivore interactions have compared one or a few islands with a single mainland site. In addition, studies have measured herbivory or plant defences but not both, and the influence of abiotic factors has been neglected. Location Mediterranean Basin (from Spain to Greece). Taxon Quercus ilex L. Methods We conducted a large‐scale study to investigate whether insect leaf herbivory and plant chemical defences in holm oak (Quercus ilex L.) differ between insular versus mainland populations. We further investigated mechanisms by which insularity effects on herbivory may take place by assessing the influence of defences and climatic variables on herbivory. Results We found that insular populations exhibited lower herbivory and higher defences (condensed tannins) than their mainland counterparts. Our analyses, however, suggest that these concomitant patterns of insect herbivory and plant defences were seemingly unrelated as island versus mainland differences in defences did not account for the observed pattern in herbivory. Furthermore, climatic factors did not explain insularity effects on either herbivory or plant defences. Main conclusions Overall, this study provides one of the most robust assessments to date on insularity effects on herbivory and builds towards a better understanding of the ecology and evolution of plant–insect interactions in insular ecosystems.info:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersio

Effects of insularity on insect leaf herbivory and chemical defences in a Mediterranean oak species

Aim Research on plant–herbivore interactions has shown that islands typically have low abundances and diversity of herbivores because of barriers to dispersal, isolation and reduced land area. Islands commonly have lower levels of herbivory relative to mainland regions, and, as a consequence, insular plants should exhibit lower levels of defences than their mainland counterparts. Despite these predictions, there are significant gaps in our understanding of insularity effects on plant–herbivore interactions. For instance, most work addressing the effects of insularity on plant–herbivore interactions have compared one or a few islands with a single mainland site. In addition, studies have measured herbivory or plant defences but not both, and the influence of abiotic factors has been neglected. Location Mediterranean Basin (from Spain to Greece). Taxon Quercus ilex L. Methods We conducted a large‐scale study to investigate whether insect leaf herbivory and plant chemical defences in holm oak (Quercus ilex L.) differ between insular versus mainland populations. We further investigated mechanisms by which insularity effects on herbivory may take place by assessing the influence of defences and climatic variables on herbivory. Results We found that insular populations exhibited lower herbivory and higher defences (condensed tannins) than their mainland counterparts. Our analyses, however, suggest that these concomitant patterns of insect herbivory and plant defences were seemingly unrelated as island versus mainland differences in defences did not account for the observed pattern in herbivory. Furthermore, climatic factors did not explain insularity effects on either herbivory or plant defences. Main conclusions Overall, this study provides one of the most robust assessments to date on insularity effects on herbivory and builds towards a better understanding of the ecology and evolution of plant–insect interactions in insular ecosystems.info:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersio

Linking hydraulic traits to tropical forest function in a size-structured and trait-driven model (TFS v.1-Hydro)

Forest ecosystem models based on heuristic water stress functions poorly predict tropical forest response to drought partly because they do not capture the diversity of hydraulic traits (including variation in tree size) observed in tropical forests. We developed a continuous porous media approach to modeling plant hydraulics in which all parameters of the constitutive equations are biologically interpretable and measurable plant hydraulic traits (e.g., turgor loss point πtlp, bulk elastic modulus ε, hydraulic capacitance Cft, xylem hydraulic conductivity ks,max, water potential at 50 % loss of conductivity for both xylem (P50,x) and stomata (P50,gs), and the leaf : sapwood area ratio Al : As). We embedded this plant hydraulics model within a trait forest simulator (TFS) that models light environments of individual trees and their upper boundary conditions (transpiration), as well as providing a means for parameterizing variation in hydraulic traits among individuals. We synthesized literature and existing databases to parameterize all hydraulic traits as a function of stem and leaf traits, including wood density (WD), leaf mass per area (LMA), and photosynthetic capacity (Amax), and evaluated the coupled model (called TFS v.1-Hydro) predictions, against observed diurnal and seasonal variability in stem and leaf water potential as well as stand-scaled sap flux.Our hydraulic trait synthesis revealed coordination among leaf and xylem hydraulic traits and statistically significant relationships of most hydraulic traits with more easily measured plant traits. Using the most informative empirical trait–trait relationships derived from this synthesis, TFS v.1-Hydro successfully captured individual variation in leaf and stem water potential due to increasing tree size and light environment, with model representation of hydraulic architecture and plant traits exerting primary and secondary controls, respectively, on the fidelity of model predictions. The plant hydraulics model made substantial improvements to simulations of total ecosystem transpiration. Remaining uncertainties and limitations of the trait paradigm for plant hydraulics modeling are highlighted

Height-diameter allometry of tropical forest trees

Tropical tree height-diameter (H:D) relationships may vary by forest type and region making large-scale estimates of above-ground biomass subject to bias if they ignore these differences in stem allometry. We have therefore developed a new global tropical forest database consisting of 39 955 concurrent H and D measurements encompassing 283 sites in 22 tropical countries. Utilising this database, our objectives were: 1. to determine if H:D relationships differ by geographic region and forest type (wet to dry forests, including zones of tension where forest and savanna overlap). 2. to ascertain if the H:D relationship is modulated by climate and/or forest structural characteristics (e.g. stand-level basal area, A). 3. to develop H:D allometric equations and evaluate biases to reduce error in future local-to-global estimates of tropical forest biomass. Annual precipitation coefficient of variation (PV), dry season length (SD), and mean annual air temperature (TA) emerged as key drivers of variation in H:D relationships at the pantropical and region scales. Vegetation structure also played a role with trees in forests of a high A being, on average, taller at any given D. After the effects of environment and forest structure are taken into account, two main regional groups can be identified. Forests in Asia, Africa and the Guyana Shield all have, on average, similar H:D relationships, but with trees in the forests of much of the Amazon Basin and tropical Australia typically being shorter at any given D than their counterparts elsewhere. The region-environment-structure model with the lowest Akaike\u27s information criterion and lowest deviation estimated stand-level H across all plots to within amedian −2.7 to 0.9% of the true value. Some of the plot-to-plot variability in H:D relationships not accounted for by this model could be attributed to variations in soil physical conditions. Other things being equal, trees tend to be more slender in the absence of soil physical constraints, especially at smaller D. Pantropical and continental-level models provided less robust estimates of H, especially when the roles of climate and stand structure in modulating H:D allometry were not simultaneously taken into account

Individual-Based Modeling of Amazon Forests Suggests That Climate Controls Productivity While Traits Control Demography

Climate, species composition, and soils are thought to control carbon cycling and forest structure in Amazonian forests. Here, we add a demographics scheme (tree recruitment, growth, and mortality) to a recently developed non-demographic model—the Trait-based Forest Simulator (TFS)—to explore the roles of climate and plant traits in controlling forest productivity and structure. We compared two sites with differing climates (seasonal vs. aseasonal precipitation) and plant traits. Through an initial validation simulation, we assessed whether the model converges on observed forest properties (productivity, demographic and structural variables) using datasets of functional traits, structure, and climate to model the carbon cycle at the two sites. In a second set of simulations, we tested the relative importance of climate and plant traits for forest properties within the TFS framework using the climate from the two sites with hypothetical trait distributions representing two axes of functional variation (“fast” vs. “slow” leaf traits, and high vs. low wood density). The adapted model with demographics reproduced observed variation in gross (GPP) and net (NPP) primary production, and respiration. However, NPP and respiration at the level of plant organs (leaf, stem, and root) were poorly simulated. Mortality and recruitment rates were underestimated. The equilibrium forest structure differed from observations of stem numbers suggesting either that the forests are not currently at equilibrium or that mechanisms are missing from the model. Findings from the second set of simulations demonstrated that differences in productivity were driven by climate, rather than plant traits. Contrary to expectation, varying leaf traits had no influence on GPP. Drivers of simulated forest structure were complex, with a key role for wood density mediated by its link to tree mortality. Modeled mortality and recruitment rates were linked to plant traits alone, drought-related mortality was not accounted for. In future, model development should focus on improving allocation, mortality, organ respiration, simulation of understory trees and adding hydraulic traits. This type of model that incorporates diverse tree strategies, detailed forest structure and realistic physiology is necessary if we are to be able to simulate tropical forest responses to global change scenarios

Separating species and environmental determinants of leaf functional traits in temperate rainforest plants along a soil-development chronosequence

We measured a diverse range of foliar characteristics in shrub and tree species in temperate rainforest communities along a soil chronosequence (six sites from 8 to 120 000 years) and used multilevel model analysis to attribute the proportion of variance for each trait into genetic (G, here meaning species-level), environmental (E) and residual error components. We hypothesised that differences in leaf traits would be driven primarily by changes in soil nutrient availability during ecosystem progression and retrogression. Several leaf structural, chemical and gas-exchange traits were more strongly driven by G than E effects. For leaf mass per unit area (MA), foliar [N], net CO2 assimilation and dark respiration rates and foliar carbohydrate concentration, the G component accounted for 60–87% of the total variance, with the variability associated with plot, the E effect, much less important. Other traits, such as foliar [P] and N : P, displayed strong E and residual effects. Analyses revealed significant reductions in the slopes of G-only bivariate relationships when compared with raw relationships, indicating that a large proportion of trait–trait relationships is species based, and not a response to environment per se. This should be accounted for when assessing the mechanistic basis for using such relationships in order to make predictions of responses of plants to short-term environmental change