Detection, attribution, and sensitivity of trends toward earlier streamflow in the Sierra Nevada

Observed changes in the timing of snowmelt dominated streamflow in the western United States are often linked to anthropogenic or other external causes. We assess whether observed streamflow timing changes can be statistically attributed to external forcing, or whether they still lie within the bounds of natural (internal) variability for four large Sierra Nevada (CA) basins, at inflow points to major reservoirs. Streamflow timing is measured by “center timing” (CT), the day when half the annual flow has passed a given point. We use a physically based hydrology model driven by meteorological input from a global climate model to quantify the natural variability in CT trends. Estimated 50-year trends in CT due to natural climate variability often exceed estimated actual CT trends from 1950 to 1999. Thus, although observed trends in CT to date may be statistically significant, they cannot yet be statistically attributed to external influences on climate. We estimate that projected CT changes at the four major reservoir inflows will, with 90% confidence, exceed those from natural variability within 1–4 decades or 4–8 decades, depending on rates of future greenhouse gas emissions. To identify areas most likely to exhibit CT changes in response to rising temperatures, we calculate changes in CT under temperature increases from 1 to 5°. We find that areas with average winter temperatures between −2°C and −4°C are most likely to respond with significant CT shifts. Correspondingly, elevations from 2000 to 2800 m are most sensitive to temperature increases, with CT changes exceeding 45 days (earlier) relative to 1961–1990

Development and application of a hydroclimatological stream temperature model within the Soil and Water Assessment Tool

We develop a stream temperature model within the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) that reflects the combined influence of meteorological (air temperature) and hydrological conditions (streamflow, snowmelt, groundwater, surface runoff, and lateral soil flow) on water temperature within a watershed. SWAT currently uses a linear air-stream temperature relationship to determine stream temperature, without consideration of watershed hydrology. As SWAT uses stream temperature to model various in-stream biological and water quality processes, an improvement of the stream temperature model will result in improved accuracy in modeling these processes. The new stream temperature model is tested on seven coastal and mountainous streams throughout the western United States for which high quality flow and water temperature data were available. The new routine does not require input data beyond that already supplied to the model, can be calibrated with a limited number of calibration parameters, and achieves improved representation of observed daily stream temperature. For the watersheds modeled, the Nash-Sutcliffe (NS) coefficient and mean error (ME) for the new stream temperature model averaged 0.81 and −0.69°C, respectively, for the calibration period and 0.82 and −0.63°C for the validation period. The original SWAT stream temperature model averaged a NS of −0.27 and ME of 3.21°C for the calibration period and a NS of −0.26 and ME of 3.02°C for the validation period. Sensitivity analyses suggest that the new stream temperature model calibration parameters are physically reasonable and the model is better able to capture stream temperature changes resulting from changes in hydroclimatological conditions

The Mesoamerican mid-summer drought: the impact of its definition on occurrences and recent changes

The mid-summer drought, veranillo or canícula, is a phenomenon experienced in many areas, including Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean. It generally is experienced as reduced rainfall in July–August, in the middle of the typical rainy season (May–September). Many past studies have attempted to quantify changes in mid-summer drought characteristics during the recent past or for future climate projections. To do this, objective definitions of a mid-summer drought’s occurrence, strength, and duration have been developed by many researchers. In this effort we adopt a recent set of definitions and examine the impact of varying these on the characterization of mid-summer droughts and the detected changes over the past 4 decades. We find the selection of a minimum intensity threshold has a dramatic effect on the results of both the area considered as experiencing a midsummer drought and the changes detected in the recent historical record. The intensity chosen can affect both the magnitude and direction of changes reported in the recent observed record. Further, we find that the typical mid-summer drought pattern may not be occurring during the time it has historically; whether examining past or future changes or developing improved seasonal forecasts, the non-stationarity of its timing should be accommodated.UCR::Vicerrectoría de Investigación::Unidades de Investigación::Ciencias Básicas::Centro de Investigaciones Geofísicas (CIGEFI

Towards smallholder food and water security: Climate variability in the context of multiple livelihood hazards in Nicaragua

Climate variability and change affect both food and water security, as do other hazards, such as shifting food prices, plant pathogens, and political economic changes. Although household food and water insecurity affect billions, most studies analyze them separately. This article develops a relational approach to explaining household access to food and water in a multi-hazard context. We identify pathways linking hazards to livelihood vulnerability and assess the relative importance of climate-related hazards. Analyzing longitudinal data collected from two surveys of the same 311 smallholder households in northern Nicaragua, conducted in 2014 and again in 2017, we find that peak seasons of food and water stress are asynchronous across the agricultural calendar, resulting in a total of five to six months of food and/or water stress. Across households, we find a significant positive relationship between water and food insecurity, even after adjusting for household fixed effects. Households experienced less food and water insecurity in 2017 than in 2014, due in part to the end of a severe drought in 2016, but remained concerned about damage from a severe coffee leaf rust outbreak and unfavorable agrifood prices that reduce income and threaten food security. Higher incomes and larger farm areas correlated with improved food and water security. We propose a generalizable approach for the joint assessment of household food and water security, which foregrounds the influence of seasonality and climate variability in the context of multiple hazards. This approach and our findings can contribute to developing integrated risk reduction strategies, building resilient livelihoods, and informing policy changes and partnerships with organized smallholders to improve resource access and sovereignty

The Lantern Vol. 3, No. 3, June 1935

• Scholarship\u27s Reward • Thus Endeth • Even in Dover • An Essay Submitted for the Paisley Prize: The Moral Standard to Which We Must Appeal in Judging Whether a Lie is Ever Justifiable • Towers of France • An Essay Submitted for the Paisley Prize • Initial Adventures in Psychiatry • In Commemoration of Comus • The Amish Maidenhttps://digitalcommons.ursinus.edu/lantern/1006/thumbnail.jp

Climate change and stream temperature projections in the Columbia River basin: habitat implications of spatial variation in hydrologic drivers

Water temperature is a primary physical factor regulating the persistence and distribution of aquatic taxa. Considering projected increases in air temperature and changes in precipitation in the coming century, accurate assessment of suitable thermal habitats in freshwater systems is critical for predicting aquatic species\u27 responses to changes in climate and for guiding adaptation strategies. We use a hydrologic model coupled with a stream temperature model and downscaled general circulation model outputs to explore the spatially and temporally varying changes in stream temperature for the late 21st century at the subbasin and ecological province scale for the Columbia River basin (CRB). On average, stream temperatures are projected to increase 3.5 °C for the spring, 5.2 °C for the summer, 2.7 °C for the fall, and 1.6 °C for the winter. While results indicate changes in stream temperature are correlated with changes in air temperature, our results also capture the important, and often ignored, influence of hydrological processes on changes in stream temperature. Decreases in future snowcover will result in increased thermal sensitivity within regions that were previously buffered by the cooling effect of flow originating as snowmelt. Other hydrological components, such as precipitation, surface runoff, lateral soil water flow, and groundwater inflow, are negatively correlated to increases in stream temperature depending on the ecological province and season. At the ecological province scale, the largest increase in annual stream temperature was within the Mountain Snake ecological province, which is characterized by migratory coldwater fish species. Stream temperature changes varied seasonally with the largest projected stream temperature increases occurring during the spring and summer for all ecological provinces. Our results indicate that stream temperatures are driven by local processes and ultimately require a physically explicit modeling approach to accurately characterize the habitat regulating the distribution and diversity of aquatic taxa

The Lantern Vol. 4, No. 2, March 1936

• Cooperative Democracy • Fantasy • Drama: Porgy and Bess • Foreign Entanglements • The Kibitzer • My Gallery of Old Folks • My Friend, Mark Twain • Jimmy and Waffles • Reminiscence • Gold Dust • After Twenty Centuries • All the World\u27s a Stage • Early Medicinehttps://digitalcommons.ursinus.edu/lantern/1007/thumbnail.jp

SERCA directs cell migration and branching across species and germ layers

Branching morphogenesis underlies organogenesis in vertebrates and invertebrates, yet is incompletely understood. Here, we show that the sarco-endoplasmic reticulum Ca2+ reuptake pump (SERCA) directs budding across germ layers and species. Clonal knockdown demonstrated a cell-autonomous role for SERCA in Drosophila air sac budding. Live imaging of Drosophila tracheogenesis revealed elevated Ca2+ levels in migratory tip cells as they form branches. SERCA blockade abolished this Ca2+ differential, aborting both cell migration and new branching. Activating protein kinase C (PKC) rescued Ca2+ in tip cells and restored cell migration and branching. Likewise, inhibiting SERCA abolished mammalian epithelial budding, PKC activation rescued budding, while morphogens did not. Mesoderm (zebrafish angiogenesis) and ectoderm (Drosophila nervous system) behaved similarly, suggesting a conserved requirement for cell-autonomous Ca2+ signaling, established by SERCA, in iterative budding

Protocadherin-18 Is a Novel Differentiation Marker and an Inhibitory Signaling Receptor for CD8+ Effector Memory T Cells

CD8+ tumor infiltrating T cells (TIL) lack effector-phase functions due to defective proximal TCR-mediated signaling previously shown to result from inactivation of p56lck kinase. We identify a novel interacting partner for p56lck in nonlytic TIL, Protocadherin-18 (‘pcdh18’), and show that pcdh18 is transcribed upon in vitro or in vivo activation of all CD8+ central memory T cells (CD44+CD62LhiCD127+) coincident with conversion into effector memory cells (CD44+CD62LloCD127+). Expression of pcdh18 in primary CD8+ effector cells induces the phenotype of nonlytic TIL: defective proximal TCR signaling, cytokine secretion, and cytolysis, and enhanced AICD. pcdh18 contains a motif (centered at Y842) shared with src kinases (QGQYQP) that is required for the inhibitory phenotype. Thus, pcdh18 is a novel activation marker of CD8+ memory T cells that can function as an inhibitory signaling receptor and restrict the effector phase

Quasi-spherical ice in convective clouds

Homogeneous freezing of supercooled droplets occurs in convective systems in low and midlatitudes. This droplet-freezing process leads to the formation of a large amount of small ice particles, so-called frozen droplets, that are transported to the upper parts of anvil outflows, where they can influence the cloud radiative properties. However, the detailed microphysics and, thus, the scattering properties of these small ice particles are highly uncertain. Here, the link between the microphysical and optical properties of frozen droplets is investigated in cloud chamber experiments, where the frozen droplets were formed, grown, and sublimated under controlled conditions. It was found that frozen droplets developed a high degree of small-scale complexity after their initial formation and subsequent growth. During sublimation, the small-scale complexity disappeared, releasing a smooth and near-spherical ice particle. Angular light scattering and depolarization measurements confirmed that these sublimating frozen droplets scattered light similar to spherical particles: that is, they had angular light-scattering properties similar to water droplets. The knowledge gained from this laboratory study was applied to two case studies of aircraft measurements in midlatitude and tropical convective systems. The in situ aircraft measurements confirmed that the microphysics of frozen droplets is dependent on the humidity conditions they are exposed to (growth or sublimation). The existence of optically spherical frozen droplets can be important for the radiative properties of detraining convective outflows.Peer reviewe