Evapotranspiration Estimates Derived Using Multi-Platform Remote Sensing in a Semiarid Region

Evapotranspiration (ET) is a key component of the water balance, especially in arid and semiarid regions. The current study takes advantage of spatially-distributed, near real-time information provided by satellite remote sensing to develop a regional scale ET product derived from remotely-sensed observations. ET is calculated by scaling PET estimated from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) products with downscaled soil moisture derived using the Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellite and a second order polynomial regression formula. The MODis-Soil Moisture ET (MOD-SMET) estimates are validated using four flux tower sites in southern Arizona USA, a calibrated empirical ET model, and model output from Version 2 of the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS-2). Validation against daily eddy covariance ET indicates correlations between 0.63 and 0.83 and root mean square errors (RMSE) between 40 and 96 W/m2. MOD-SMET estimates compare well to the calibrated empirical ET model, with a −0.14 difference in correlation between sites, on average. By comparison, NLDAS-2 models underestimate daily ET compared to both flux towers and MOD-SMET estimates. Our analysis shows the MOD-SMET approach to be effective for estimating ET. Because it requires limited ancillary ground-based data and no site-specific calibration, the method is applicable to regions where ground-based measurements are not available

Using the Storm Water Management Model to predict urban headwater stream hydrological response to climate and land cover change

Streams are natural features in urban landscapes that can provide ecosystem services for urban residents. However, urban streams are under increasing pressure caused by multiple anthropogenic impacts, including increases in human population and associated impervious surface area, and accelerated climate change. The ability to anticipate these changes and better understand their effects on streams is important for developing and implementing strategies to mitigate potentially negative effects. In this study, stream flow was monitored during April-November (2011 and 2012), and the data were used to apply the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) for five urban watersheds in central Iowa, USA, representing a gradient of percent impervious surface (IS, ranging from 5.3 to 37.1%). A set of three scenarios was designed to quantify hydrological responses to independent and combined effects of climate change (18% increase in precipitation), and land cover change (absolute increases between 5.2 and 17.1%, based on separate projections of impervious surfaces for the five watersheds) for the year 2040 compared to a current condition simulation. An additional set of three scenarios examined stream response to different distributions of land cover change within a single watershed. Hydrological responses were quantified using three indices: unit-area peak discharge, flashiness (R-B Index; Richards-Baker Index), and runoff ratio. Stream hydrology was strongly affected by watershed percent IS. For the current condition simulation, values for all three indices were five to seven times greater in the most developed watershed compared to the least developed watershed. The climate change scenario caused a 20.8% increase in unit-area peak discharge on average across the five watersheds compared to the current condition simulation. The land cover change scenario resulted in large increases for all three indices: 49.5% for unit-area peak discharge, 39.3% for R-B Index, and 73.9% for runoff ratio, on average, for the five watersheds. The combined climate and land cover change scenario resulted in slight increases on average for R-B Index (43.7%) and runoff ratio (74.5%) compared to the land cover change scenario, and a substantial increase, on average, in unit area peak discharge (80.1%). The scenarios for different distributions of land cover change within one watershed resulted in changes for all three indices, with an 18.4% increase in unit-area peak discharge for the midstream scenario, and 17.5% (downstream) and 18.1% (midstream) increases in R-B Index, indicating sensitivity to the location of potential additions of IS within a watershed. Given the likelihood of increased precipitation in the future, land use planning and policy tools that limit expansion of impervious surfaces (e.g. by substituting pervious surfaces) or mitigate against their impacts (e.g. by installing bioswales) could be used to minimize negative effects on streams

Using the Storm Water Management Model to predict urban headwater stream hydrological response to climate and land cover change

Streams are natural features in urban landscapes that can provide ecosystem services for urban residents. However, urban streams are under increasing pressure caused by multiple anthropogenic impacts, including increases in human population and associated impervious surface area, and accelerated climate change. The ability to anticipate these changes and better understand their effects on streams is important for developing and implementing strategies to mitigate potentially negative effects. In this study, stream flow was monitored during April–November (2011 and 2012), and the data were used to apply the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) for five urban watersheds in central Iowa, USA, representing a gradient of percent impervious surface (IS, ranging from 5.3 to 37.1%). A set of three scenarios was designed to quantify hydrological responses to independent and combined effects of climate change (18% increase in precipitation), and land cover change (absolute increases between 5.2 and 17.1%, based on separate projections of impervious surfaces for the five watersheds) for the year 2040 compared to a current condition simulation. An additional set of three scenarios examined stream response to different distributions of land cover change within a single watershed. Hydrological responses were quantified using three indices: unit-area peak discharge, flashiness (R-B Index; Richards–Baker Index), and runoff ratio. Stream hydrology was strongly affected by watershed percent IS. For the current condition simulation, values for all three indices were five to seven times greater in the most developed watershed compared to the least developed watershed. The climate change scenario caused a 20.8% increase in unit-area peak discharge on average across the five watersheds compared to the current condition simulation. The land cover change scenario resulted in large increases for all three indices: 49.5% for unit-area peak discharge, 39.3% for R-B Index, and 73.9% for runoff ratio, on average, for the five watersheds. The combined climate and land cover change scenario resulted in slight increases on average for R-B Index (43.7%) and runoff ratio (74.5%) compared to the land cover change scenario, and a substantial increase, on average, in unit area peak discharge (80.1%). The scenarios for different distributions of land cover change within one watershed resulted in changes for all three indices, with an 18.4% increase in unit-area peak discharge for the midstream scenario, and 17.5% (downstream) and 18.1% (midstream) increases in R-B Index, indicating sensitivity to the location of potential additions of IS within a watershed. Given the likelihood of increased precipitation in the future, land use planning and policy tools that limit expansion of impervious surfaces (e.g. by substituting pervious surfaces) or mitigate against their impacts (e.g. by installing bioswales) could be used to minimize negative effects on streams.This article is from Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 17 (2013): 4743–4758, doi:10.5194/hess-17-4743-2013.</p

Evaluation of national weather service ensemble streamflow predictions (ESP) for the Colorado river basin

The National Weather Service (NWS) developed the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) system to generate probabilistic water supply forecasts that consist of an ensemble of streamflow traces (scenarios) conditioned on the initial states of the basin. Uncertainty information available from ESP may be more useful to risk-based decision makers than what is currently provided by linear regression forecasts. Because the use of ESP has been limited to date, there are few operational forecasts available for verification. Therefore, it was necessary to generate simulated operational ESP forecasts to test the forecasting procedure's potential to enhance current forecasting techniques. Simulated historical forecasts were generated for 14 forecast points in the Colorado River basin. The median and best forecast traces were analyzed as representations of ESP deterministic forecasts. General scalar statistics were used to evaluate these traces. The probability information contained in the entire ensemble was analyzed using probabilistic and conditional verification methods. It was found that the information contained in the median trace is limited and that choosing one trace is not the optimal use of ESP forecast information. ESP provides a probabilistic forecast that performs better than a probabilistic forecast based on climatology. In addition, ESP can provide accurate information about the magnitude of future streamflow discharge even at lead times of up to seven months. With shorter lead times (2-3 months), the forecasts become more informative and accurate.Primary financial support for this research was provided by the Climate Assessment for the Southwest Project (CLIMAS) under the NOAA Grant #NA86GP0061 from the NOAA Office of Global Programs. Partial supported was provided by the National Science Foundation Science and Technology Center for "Sustainability of Semi - Arid Hydrology and Riparian Areas" (SAHRA), Agreement No. EAR -9876800; the Hydrologic Data Information System (HyDIS) program; a partial grant from the National Science Foundation Graduate Research Trainee Program; and the University of Arizona Graduate College Fellowship.This title from the Hydrology & Water Resources Technical Reports collection is made available by the Department of Hydrology & Atmospheric Sciences and the University Libraries, University of Arizona. If you have questions about titles in this collection, please contact [email protected]

Using the Storm Water Management Model to predict urban headwater stream hydrological response to climate and land cover change

Streams are natural features in urban landscapes that can provide ecosystem services for urban residents. However, urban streams are under increasing pressure caused by multiple anthropogenic impacts, including increases in human population and associated impervious surface area, and accelerated climate change. The ability to anticipate these changes and better understand their effects on streams is important for developing and implementing strategies to mitigate potentially negative effects. In this study, stream flow was monitored during April-November (2011 and 2012), and the data were used to apply the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) for five urban watersheds in central Iowa, USA, representing a gradient of percent impervious surface (IS, ranging from 5.3 to 37.1%). A set of three scenarios was designed to quantify hydrological responses to independent and combined effects of climate change (18% increase in precipitation), and land cover change (absolute increases between 5.2 and 17.1%, based on separate projections of impervious surfaces for the five watersheds) for the year 2040 compared to a current condition simulation. An additional set of three scenarios examined stream response to different distributions of land cover change within a single watershed. Hydrological responses were quantified using three indices: unit-area peak discharge, flashiness (R-B Index; Richards-Baker Index), and runoff ratio. Stream hydrology was strongly affected by watershed percent IS. For the current condition simulation, values for all three indices were five to seven times greater in the most developed watershed compared to the least developed watershed. The climate change scenario caused a 20.8% increase in unit-area peak discharge on average across the five watersheds compared to the current condition simulation. The land cover change scenario resulted in large increases for all three indices: 49.5% for unit-area peak discharge, 39.3% for R-B Index, and 73.9% for runoff ratio, on average, for the five watersheds. The combined climate and land cover change scenario resulted in slight increases on average for R-B Index (43.7%) and runoff ratio (74.5%) compared to the land cover change scenario, and a substantial increase, on average, in unit area peak discharge (80.1%). The scenarios for different distributions of land cover change within one watershed resulted in changes for all three indices, with an 18.4% increase in unit-area peak discharge for the midstream scenario, and 17.5% (downstream) and 18.1% (midstream) increases in R-B Index, indicating sensitivity to the location of potential additions of IS within a watershed. Given the likelihood of increased precipitation in the future, land use planning and policy tools that limit expansion of impervious surfaces (e.g. by substituting pervious surfaces) or mitigate against their impacts (e.g. by installing bioswales) could be used to minimize negative effects on streams.This article is from Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 17 (2013): 4743, doi:10.5194/hess-17-4743-2013.</p