Balance studies on compartmental systems with stochastic inputs

For a population of identical one compartment systems with daily inputs which are random samples from a stationary distribution the mean of the daily balance (balance = input minus excretion) taken over the population of compartments or over days for one compartment is linearly dependent on input with a slope which is independent of the distribution of the inputs and an intercept which depends only on the mean of the distribution of intakes. Analytical and simulation studies on a model with three daily inputs gives essentially similar results. Even if the inputs are not from a stationary distribution but the inputs to a population of compartments are all from the same distribution, one still obtains a linear regression of the mean of the daily balance over the population of compartments, on intake for any particular day but this no longer holds from day to day. This provides a theoretical basis for the interpretation of balance studies on populations of individuals when the daily intakes of an element under study cannot be kept constant.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/33422/1/0000824.pd

Statistical Methods for Linking Health, Exposure, and Hazards

The Environmental Public Health Tracking Network (EPHTN) proposes to link environmental hazards and exposures to health outcomes. Statistical methods used in case–control and cohort studies to link health outcomes to individual exposure estimates are well developed. However, reliable exposure estimates for many contaminants are not available at the individual level. In these cases, exposure/hazard data are often aggregated over a geographic area, and ecologic models are used to relate health outcome and exposure/hazard. Ecologic models are not without limitations in interpretation. EPHTN data are characteristic of much information currently being collected—they are multivariate, with many predictors and response variables, often aggregated over geographic regions (small and large) and correlated in space and/or time. The methods to model trends in space and time, handle correlation structures in the data, estimate effects, test hypotheses, and predict future outcomes are relatively new and without extensive application in environmental public health. In this article we outline a tiered approach to data analysis for EPHTN and review the use of standard methods for relating exposure/hazards, disease mapping and clustering techniques, Bayesian approaches, Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for estimation of posterior parameters, and geostatistical methods. The advantages and limitations of these methods are discussed

A Comparison of DSM-IV and DSM-5 Panel Members' Financial Associations with Industry: A Pernicious Problem Persists

Lisa Cosgrove and Sheldon Krimsky examine the new competing interest disclosure policy of the American Psychiatric Association (APA) and report that DSM panel members still have considerable financial conflicts of interest

Randomized Dose-Ranging Controlled Trial of AQ-13, a Candidate Antimalarial, and Chloroquine in Healthy Volunteers

OBJECTIVES: To determine: (1) the pharmacokinetics and safety of an investigational aminoquinoline active against multidrug–resistant malaria parasites (AQ-13), including its effects on the QT interval, and (2) whether it has pharmacokinetic and safety profiles similar to chloroquine (CQ) in humans. DESIGN: Phase I double-blind, randomized controlled trials to compare AQ-13 and CQ in healthy volunteers. Randomizations were performed at each step after completion of the previous dose. SETTING: Tulane–Louisiana State University–Charity Hospital General Clinical Research Center in New Orleans. PARTICIPANTS: 126 healthy adults 21–45 years of age. INTERVENTIONS: 10, 100, 300, 600, and 1,500 mg oral doses of CQ base in comparison with equivalent doses of AQ-13. OUTCOME MEASURES: Clinical and laboratory adverse events (AEs), pharmacokinetic parameters, and QT prolongation. RESULTS: No hematologic, hepatic, renal, or other organ toxicity was observed with AQ-13 or CQ at any dose tested. Headache, lightheadedness/dizziness, and gastrointestinal (GI) tract–related symptoms were the most common AEs. Although symptoms were more frequent with AQ-13, the numbers of volunteers who experienced symptoms with AQ-13 and CQ were similar (for AQ-13 and CQ, respectively: headache, 17/63 and 10/63, p = 0.2; lightheadedness/dizziness, 11/63 and 8/63, p = 0.6; GI symptoms, 14/63 and 13/63; p = 0.9). Both AQ-13 and CQ exhibited linear pharmacokinetics. However, AQ-13 was cleared more rapidly than CQ (respectively, median oral clearance 14.0–14.7 l/h versus 9.5–11.3 l/h; p ≤ 0.03). QTc prolongation was greater with CQ than AQ-13 (CQ: mean increase of 28 ms; 95% confidence interval [CI], 18 to 38 ms, versus AQ-13: mean increase of 10 ms; 95% CI, 2 to 17 ms; p = 0.01). There were no arrhythmias or other cardiac AEs with either AQ-13 or CQ. CONCLUSIONS: These studies revealed minimal differences in toxicity between AQ-13 and CQ, and similar linear pharmacokinetics

Expanding Research Capacity in Sub-Saharan Africa Through Informatics, Bioinformatics, and Data Science Training Programs in Mali

Bioinformatics and data science research have boundless potential across Africa due to its high levels of genetic diversity and disproportionate burden of infectious diseases, including malaria, tuberculosis, HIV and AIDS, Ebola virus disease, and Lassa fever. This work lays out an incremental approach for reaching underserved countries in bioinformatics and data science research through a progression of capacity building, training, and research efforts. Two global health informatics training programs sponsored by the Fogarty International Center (FIC) were carried out at the University of Sciences, Techniques and Technologies of Bamako, Mali (USTTB) between 1999 and 2011. Together with capacity building efforts through the West Africa International Centers of Excellence in Malaria Research (ICEMR), this progress laid the groundwork for a bioinformatics and data science training program launched at USTTB as part of the Human Heredity and Health in Africa (H3Africa) initiative. Prior to the global health informatics training, its trainees published first or second authorship and third or higher authorship manuscripts at rates of 0.40 and 0.10 per year, respectively. Following the training, these rates increased to 0.70 and 1.23 per year, respectively, which was a statistically significant increase (p < 0.001). The bioinformatics and data science training program at USTTB commenced in 2017 focusing on student, faculty, and curriculum tiers of enhancement. The program’s sustainable measures included institutional support for core elements, university tuition and fees, resource sharing and coordination with local research projects and companion training programs, increased student and faculty publication rates, and increased research proposal submissions. Challenges reliance of high-speed bandwidth availability on short-term funding, lack of a discounted software portal for basic software applications, protracted application processes for United States visas, lack of industry job positions, and low publication rates in the areas of bioinformatics and data science. Long-term, incremental processes are necessary for engaging historically underserved countries in bioinformatics and data science research. The multi-tiered enhancement approach laid out here provides a platform for generating bioinformatics and data science technicians, teachers, researchers, and program managers. Increased literature on bioinformatics and data science training approaches and progress is needed to provide a framework for establishing benchmarks on the topics

Evaluating the Effects of SARS-CoV-2 Spike Mutation D614G on Transmissibility and Pathogenicity.

Global dispersal and increasing frequency of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein variant D614G are suggestive of a selective advantage but may also be due to a random founder effect. We investigate the hypothesis for positive selection of spike D614G in the United Kingdom using more than 25,000 whole genome SARS-CoV-2 sequences. Despite the availability of a large dataset, well represented by both spike 614 variants, not all approaches showed a conclusive signal of positive selection. Population genetic analysis indicates that 614G increases in frequency relative to 614D in a manner consistent with a selective advantage. We do not find any indication that patients infected with the spike 614G variant have higher COVID-19 mortality or clinical severity, but 614G is associated with higher viral load and younger age of patients. Significant differences in growth and size of 614G phylogenetic clusters indicate a need for continued study of this variant

Cortical thickness and resting-state cardiac function across the lifespan: a cross-sectional pooled mega analysis

Understanding the association between autonomic nervous system [ANS] function and brain morphology across the lifespan provides important insights into neurovisceral mechanisms underlying health and disease. Resting state ANS activity, indexed by measures of heart rate [HR] and its variability [HRV] has been associated with brain morphology, particularly cortical thickness [CT]. While findings have been mixed regarding the anatomical distribution and direction of the associations, these inconsistencies may be due to sex and age differences in HR/HRV and CT. Previous studies have been limited by small sample sizes, which impede the assessment of sex differences and aging effects on the association between ANS function and CT. To overcome these limitations, 20 groups worldwide contributed data collected under similar protocols of CT assessment and HR/HRV recording to be pooled in a mega-analysis (N = 1,218 (50.5% female), mean age 36.7 years (range: 12-87)). Findings suggest a decline in HRV as well as CT with increasing age. CT, particularly in the orbitofrontal cortex, explained additional variance in HRV, beyond the effects of aging. This pattern of results may suggest that the decline in HRV with increasing age is related to a decline in orbitofrontal CT. These effects were independent of sex and specific to HRV; with no significant association between CT and HR. Greater CT across the adult lifespan may be vital for the maintenance of healthy cardiac regulation via the ANS – or greater cardiac vagal activity as indirectly reflected in HRV may slow brain atrophy. Findings reveal an important association between cortical thickness and cardiac parasympathetic activity with implications for healthy aging and longevity that should be studied further in longitudinal research

Hospital admission and emergency care attendance risk for SARS-CoV-2 delta (B.1.617.2) compared with alpha (B.1.1.7) variants of concern: a cohort study

Background: The SARS-CoV-2 delta (B.1.617.2) variant was first detected in England in March, 2021. It has since rapidly become the predominant lineage, owing to high transmissibility. It is suspected that the delta variant is associated with more severe disease than the previously dominant alpha (B.1.1.7) variant. We aimed to characterise the severity of the delta variant compared with the alpha variant by determining the relative risk of hospital attendance outcomes. Methods: This cohort study was done among all patients with COVID-19 in England between March 29 and May 23, 2021, who were identified as being infected with either the alpha or delta SARS-CoV-2 variant through whole-genome sequencing. Individual-level data on these patients were linked to routine health-care datasets on vaccination, emergency care attendance, hospital admission, and mortality (data from Public Health England's Second Generation Surveillance System and COVID-19-associated deaths dataset; the National Immunisation Management System; and NHS Digital Secondary Uses Services and Emergency Care Data Set). The risk for hospital admission and emergency care attendance were compared between patients with sequencing-confirmed delta and alpha variants for the whole cohort and by vaccination status subgroups. Stratified Cox regression was used to adjust for age, sex, ethnicity, deprivation, recent international travel, area of residence, calendar week, and vaccination status. Findings: Individual-level data on 43 338 COVID-19-positive patients (8682 with the delta variant, 34 656 with the alpha variant; median age 31 years [IQR 17–43]) were included in our analysis. 196 (2·3%) patients with the delta variant versus 764 (2·2%) patients with the alpha variant were admitted to hospital within 14 days after the specimen was taken (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 2·26 [95% CI 1·32–3·89]). 498 (5·7%) patients with the delta variant versus 1448 (4·2%) patients with the alpha variant were admitted to hospital or attended emergency care within 14 days (adjusted HR 1·45 [1·08–1·95]). Most patients were unvaccinated (32 078 [74·0%] across both groups). The HRs for vaccinated patients with the delta variant versus the alpha variant (adjusted HR for hospital admission 1·94 [95% CI 0·47–8·05] and for hospital admission or emergency care attendance 1·58 [0·69–3·61]) were similar to the HRs for unvaccinated patients (2·32 [1·29–4·16] and 1·43 [1·04–1·97]; p=0·82 for both) but the precision for the vaccinated subgroup was low. Interpretation: This large national study found a higher hospital admission or emergency care attendance risk for patients with COVID-19 infected with the delta variant compared with the alpha variant. Results suggest that outbreaks of the delta variant in unvaccinated populations might lead to a greater burden on health-care services than the alpha variant. Funding: Medical Research Council; UK Research and Innovation; Department of Health and Social Care; and National Institute for Health Research

Evaluating the Effects of SARS-CoV-2 Spike Mutation D614G on Transmissibility and Pathogenicity

Global dispersal and increasing frequency of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein variant D614G are suggestive of a selective advantage but may also be due to a random founder effect. We investigate the hypothesis for positive selection of spike D614G in the United Kingdom using more than 25,000 whole genome SARS-CoV-2 sequences. Despite the availability of a large dataset, well represented by both spike 614 variants, not all approaches showed a conclusive signal of positive selection. Population genetic analysis indicates that 614G increases in frequency relative to 614D in a manner consistent with a selective advantage. We do not find any indication that patients infected with the spike 614G variant have higher COVID-19 mortality or clinical severity, but 614G is associated with higher viral load and younger age of patients. Significant differences in growth and size of 614G phylogenetic clusters indicate a need for continued study of this variant

Changes in symptomatology, reinfection, and transmissibility associated with the SARS-CoV-2 variant B.1.1.7: an ecological study

Background The SARS-CoV-2 variant B.1.1.7 was first identified in December, 2020, in England. We aimed to investigate whether increases in the proportion of infections with this variant are associated with differences in symptoms or disease course, reinfection rates, or transmissibility. Methods We did an ecological study to examine the association between the regional proportion of infections with the SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 variant and reported symptoms, disease course, rates of reinfection, and transmissibility. Data on types and duration of symptoms were obtained from longitudinal reports from users of the COVID Symptom Study app who reported a positive test for COVID-19 between Sept 28 and Dec 27, 2020 (during which the prevalence of B.1.1.7 increased most notably in parts of the UK). From this dataset, we also estimated the frequency of possible reinfection, defined as the presence of two reported positive tests separated by more than 90 days with a period of reporting no symptoms for more than 7 days before the second positive test. The proportion of SARS-CoV-2 infections with the B.1.1.7 variant across the UK was estimated with use of genomic data from the COVID-19 Genomics UK Consortium and data from Public Health England on spike-gene target failure (a non-specific indicator of the B.1.1.7 variant) in community cases in England. We used linear regression to examine the association between reported symptoms and proportion of B.1.1.7. We assessed the Spearman correlation between the proportion of B.1.1.7 cases and number of reinfections over time, and between the number of positive tests and reinfections. We estimated incidence for B.1.1.7 and previous variants, and compared the effective reproduction number, Rt, for the two incidence estimates. Findings From Sept 28 to Dec 27, 2020, positive COVID-19 tests were reported by 36 920 COVID Symptom Study app users whose region was known and who reported as healthy on app sign-up. We found no changes in reported symptoms or disease duration associated with B.1.1.7. For the same period, possible reinfections were identified in 249 (0·7% [95% CI 0·6–0·8]) of 36 509 app users who reported a positive swab test before Oct 1, 2020, but there was no evidence that the frequency of reinfections was higher for the B.1.1.7 variant than for pre-existing variants. Reinfection occurrences were more positively correlated with the overall regional rise in cases (Spearman correlation 0·56–0·69 for South East, London, and East of England) than with the regional increase in the proportion of infections with the B.1.1.7 variant (Spearman correlation 0·38–0·56 in the same regions), suggesting B.1.1.7 does not substantially alter the risk of reinfection. We found a multiplicative increase in the Rt of B.1.1.7 by a factor of 1·35 (95% CI 1·02–1·69) relative to pre-existing variants. However, Rt fell below 1 during regional and national lockdowns, even in regions with high proportions of infections with the B.1.1.7 variant. Interpretation The lack of change in symptoms identified in this study indicates that existing testing and surveillance infrastructure do not need to change specifically for the B.1.1.7 variant. In addition, given that there was no apparent increase in the reinfection rate, vaccines are likely to remain effective against the B.1.1.7 variant. Funding Zoe Global, Department of Health (UK), Wellcome Trust, Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (UK), National Institute for Health Research (UK), Medical Research Council (UK), Alzheimer's Society