Predictability of frontal waves and cyclones

The statistical properties and skill in predictions of objectively identified and tracked cyclonic features (frontal waves and cyclones) are examined in MOGREPS-15, the global 15-day version of the Met Office Global and Regional Ensemble Prediction System (MOGREPS). The number density of cyclonic features is found to decline with increasing lead-time, with analysis fields containing weak features which are not sustained past the first day of the forecast. This loss of cyclonic features is associated with a decline in area averaged enstrophy with increasing lead time. Both feature number density and area averaged enstrophy saturate by around 7 days into the forecast. It is found that the feature number density and area averaged enstrophy of forecasts produced using model versions that include stochastic energy backscatter saturate at higher values than forecasts produced without stochastic physics. The ability of MOGREPS-15 to predict the locations of cyclonic features of different strengths is evaluated at different spatial scales by examining the Brier Skill (relative to the analysis climatology) of strike probability forecasts: the probability that a cyclonic feature center is located within a specified radius. The radius at which skill is maximised increases with lead time from 650km at 12h to 950km at 7 days. The skill is greatest for the most intense features. Forecast skill remains above zero at these scales out to 14 days for the most intense cyclonic features, but only out to 8 days when all features are included irrespective of intensity

Introduksi pada Iman Reformed

Tulisan ini hanyalah suatu “introduksi” kepada iman reformed, jadi bukan merupakan suatu analisis yang mendalam. Namun jelas tetap bermanfaat untuk mengetahui gambaran sekilas di saat awal studi saudara. Bersama-sama dengan tulisan ini, saya mengharapkan saudara membaca Pengakuan Iman Westminster, Larger dan Shorter Catechism, serta “tiga bentuk kesatuan” dari gereja-gereja reformed di benua Eropa: Pengakuan Iman Belgia, Katekismus Heidelberg, serta Kanon-kanon Dordt. Semua itu merupakan ringkasan yang indah dari posisi doktrin reformed, yang disajikan secara utuh, ringkas, dan tepat. Heidelberg adalah salah satu karya devosional yang agung di sepanjang masa. Saya juga percaya ada banyak manfaat yang bisa didapatkan dari pembukaan ringkasan teologi reformed karya Cornelius Van Til, The Defense of the Faith

Cervical cancer screening: target age bracket, screening frequency and screening method: review of recent evidence and comparison with the Portuguese performance indicator

Esta revisão teve por objetivo avaliar a força de evidência do indicador de desempenho português relativo ao rastreio do Câncer do Colo do Útero (CCU): (1) limites etários das mulheres da população geral que o devem realizar, a (2) periodicidade com que deve ser realizado e (3) qual o melhor exame de rastreio. Foram pesquisados os seguintes termos MeSH: vaginal smears, age groups, periodicity, methods, uterine cervical cancer. Foram excluídos os artigos que não abordavam o objetivo da investigação ou que não fossem redigidos em Inglês, Português ou Espanhol. Para interpretar os artigos selecionados foi utilizada a classificação SORT. Foram encontrados 197 artigos, dos quais seleccionados 9: 1 revisão sistemática (RS), 1 estudo clínico controlado aleatorizado, 2 estudos observacionais retrospectivos e 5 normas de orientação clínica (NOC). Os autores optaram por incluir nesta revisão mais 4 NOCs e 2 RSs por considerarem ser relevantes para a população Portuguesa, apesar de não resultarem da pesquisa efectuada. Os estudos sugerem realização do rastreio entre os 21 e 25 até aos 65 anos, com uma periodicidade trienal usando a citologia convencional. Existe ainda controvérsia no que toca aos 3 objetivos deste artigo (limites etários, frequência e método).The scope of this review was to assess the strength of evidence of Portuguese performance indicators on Cervical Cancer screening: (1) age group of the women that should be screened for cervical cancer; (2) frequency of screening; and (3) the best method for screening. The following MeSH terms were searched: vaginal smears, age groups, periodicity, methods, uterine cervical cancer. Articles not reflecting the study objectives or not available in English, Portuguese or Spanish were excluded. The SORT classification was used to rate the articles selected.Of the 197 articles found, 9 that met all study criteria were selected for inclusion in this review. These included 1 systematic review, 1 randomized controlled clinical trial, 2 retrospective studies and 5 clinical guidelines. The authors also chose to include 4 clinical guidelines and two systematic reviews relevant to the Portuguese population even though they did not appear in the initial search of the literature. The studies suggest screening women between the ages of 21 to 25 years and 65 years of age, once every three years using conventional cytology. There is still controversy regarding the three objectives of this study (target age bracket, screening frequency and screening method)

Hubungan Penggunaan Dan Penanganan Pestisida Pada Petani Bawang Merah Terhadap Residu Pestisida Dalam Tanah Di Lahan Pertanian Desa Wanasari Kecamatan Wanasari Kabupaten Brebes

Excessive use of pesticides causing pollution and environmental damage agriculture. Examination in Brebes on 31 samples of fruits and vegetables, found 22% of samples contain detectable residues of organophosphate and found two soil samples (10%) contained residues organochlorin. The purpose of this study was to determine the relationship of the use and handling of pesticides on their onion farmers against pesticide residues in the soil on agricultural land Wanasari Village, District Wanasari, Brebes. This study is observational method with cross sectional approach. The population in this study were all farmers in the Wanasari conducting spraying. Collecting data using the tool Banu questionnaire and examination of pesticide residues in soil using GC-MS Gas Chromatography - Mass Spectrometry. The results of this study are of 55 69.1 onion farmers use pesticides are not good. The use of pesticides covering 80% is not good in mixing pesticides, 87.3% use a smaller dose, 49.1% use pesticides that are not registered with the Ministry of Agriculture, 87.3% is not good in the way of spraying and 87.3 does well in frequency spraying. Handling pesticides in agricultural land is not good 59.1%, ie 74.5% is not good in handling pesticide containers, 90.9% is not good in storage of pesticides, 89.1% is not good in handling a spill and 87.3% did not either in place to clean pesticide containers. The research result is negative soil samples pesticide residues. The conclusion was that no pesticide residue class organochlorin

The TIGGE project and its achievements

TIGGE was a major component of the THORPEX (The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment) research program, whose aim is to accelerate improvements in forecasting high-impact weather. By providing ensemble prediction data from leading operational forecast centers, TIGGE has enhanced collaboration between the research and operational meteorological communities and enabled research studies on a wide range of topics. The paper covers the objective evaluation of the TIGGE data. For a range of forecast parameters, it is shown to be beneficial to combine ensembles from several data providers in a Multi-model Grand Ensemble. Alternative methods to correct systematic errors, including the use of reforecast data, are also discussed. TIGGE data have been used for a range of research studies on predictability and dynamical processes. Tropical cyclones are the most destructive weather systems in the world, and are a focus of multi-model ensemble research. Their extra-tropical transition also has a major impact on skill of mid-latitude forecasts. We also review how TIGGE has added to our understanding of the dynamics of extra-tropical cyclones and storm tracks. Although TIGGE is a research project, it has proved invaluable for the development of products for future operational forecasting. Examples include the forecasting of tropical cyclone tracks, heavy rainfall, strong winds, and flood prediction through coupling hydrological models to ensembles. Finally the paper considers the legacy of TIGGE. We discuss the priorities and key issues in predictability and ensemble forecasting, including the new opportunities of convective-scale ensembles, links with ensemble data assimilation methods, and extension of the range of useful forecast skill

Attribution: how is it relevant for loss and damage policy and practice?

Attribution has become a recurring issue in discussions about Loss and Damage (L&D). In this highly-politicised context, attribution is often associated with responsibility and blame; and linked to debates about liability and compensation. The aim of attribution science, however, is not to establish responsibility, but to further scientific understanding of causal links between elements of the Earth System and society. This research into causality could inform the management of climate-related risks through improved understanding of drivers of relevant hazards, or, more widely, vulnerability and exposure; with potential benefits regardless of political positions on L&D. Experience shows that it is nevertheless difficult to have open discussions about the science in the policy sphere. This is not only a missed opportunity, but also problematic in that it could inhibit understanding of scientific results and uncertainties, potentially leading to policy planning which does not have sufficient scientific evidence to support it. In this chapter, we first explore this dilemma for science-policy dialogue, summarising several years of research into stakeholder perspectives of attribution in the context of L&D. We then aim to provide clarity about the scientific research available, through an overview of research which might contribute evidence about the causal connections between anthropogenic climate change and losses and damages, including climate science, but also other fields which examine other drivers of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. Finally, we explore potential applications of attribution research, suggesting that an integrated and nuanced approach has potential to inform planning to avert, minimise and address losses and damages. The key messages are In the political context of climate negotiations, questions about whether losses and damages can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change are often linked to issues of responsibility, blame, and liability. Attribution science does not aim to establish responsibility or blame, but rather to investigate drivers of change. Attribution science is advancing rapidly, and has potential to increase understanding of how climate variability and change is influencing slow onset and extreme weather events, and how this interacts with other drivers of risk, including socio-economic drivers, to influence losses and damages. Over time, some uncertainties in the science will be reduced, as the anthropogenic climate change signal becomes stronger, and understanding of climate variability and change develops. However, some uncertainties will not be eliminated. Uncertainty is common in science, and does not prevent useful applications in policy, but might determine which applications are appropriate. It is important to highlight that in attribution studies, the strength of evidence varies substantially between different kinds of slow onset and extreme weather events, and between regions. Policy-makers should not expect the later emergence of conclusive evidence about the influence of climate variability and change on specific incidences of losses and damages; and, in particular, should not expect the strength of evidence to be equal between events, and between countries. Rather than waiting for further confidence in attribution studies, there is potential to start working now to integrate science into policy and practice, to help understand and tackle drivers of losses and damages, informing prevention, recovery, rehabilitation, and transformation