Quantitative Methodology for Measuring Natural Character in New Zealand's Coastal Environments

Anecdotal evidence points to an overall loss of coastal natural character in New Zealand since preserving the natural character of the coastal environment first became a statutory policy-goal in 1973. Today the preservation of the natural character of the coastal environment is one of the matters of national importance in the Resource Management Act 1991 (development control legislation) and one of the purposes of the Reserves Act 1977 (protected area legislation). There has, however, been no quantitative measurement or systematic monitoring of changes in overall natural character. The purpose of this thesis has been to develop a robust quantitative methodology for measuring natural character and its change using a consistent framework across terrestrial, freshwater and marine coastal environments. While methodology development took place in Northland, New Zealand, the methodology has been designed to be applied throughout New Zealand. With modification it would also have applicability in other countries. A comprehensive definition of natural character was developed for the New Zealand environmental, legal and policy contexts that also addressed the role of perception. Court decisions on appeals lodged under the Resource Management Act were found to be generally consistent with this definition. The Quantitative Index for measuring the Natural Character of the Coastal Environment (QINCCE) methodology was developed using indicators (and environment-specific parameters) derived from the comprehensive definition of natural character. A consistent framework is used for measuring natural character across terrestrial, freshwater and marine coastal environments. The methodology can be applied at a range of scales and for a range of purposes. For each broad class of coastal environment there is a core set of parameters that are used to calculate three sub-indices for each plan-view unit: • An ecological naturalness index (ENI) • A hydrological and geomorphological naturalness index (HGNI) • A freedom from buildings and structures index (FBSI) These three sub-indices are combined to give an overall natural character index (NCI) for each unit, which can be multiplied by 100 to give a natural character score between 0 and 100. Second tier parameters and alternative measurement perspectives have been developed for those situations where additional detail is required. Several key parameters are measured relative to the reference condition present-potential natural state. One is Score representing progress towards present-potential cover where present-potential cover is the terrestrial and aquatic land cover that would be present today had natural processes proceeded without the arrival of humans, the species they introduced and the consequential changes to the environment. Scoring tables for measuring progress towards present-potential cover have been developed for eastern Northland. Hydrological and geomorphological naturalness is assessed relative to the equivalent present-potential natural state. Protocols for addressing interactions between the hydrological and geomorphological, and cover parameters have been developed. This includes distinguishing between natural versus human-induced, and on-site versus off-site sources of disturbance. As part of the methodology refinement process, 113 “informed” participants scored their perceptions of natural character for 40 coastal environment photographs. These perceived scores were compared with scores calculated for the same photographs using the QINCCE methodology applied using an oblique Viewpoint perspective. The results assisted with the subsequent refinement of the scoring protocols for some parameters, and the construction and combination of the QINCCE indices

On the Elementary Relation Between Pitch, Slip, and Propulsive Efficiency

No abstract availabl

The prediction of extratropical storm tracks by the ECMWF and NCEP ensemble prediction systems

The prediction of extratropical cyclones by the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPS) has been investigated using an objective feature tracking methodology to identify and track the cyclones along the forecast trajectories. Overall the results show that the ECMWF EPS has a slightly higher level of skill than the NCEP EPS in the northern hemisphere (NH). However in the southern hemisphere (SH), NCEP has higher predictive skill than ECMWF for the intensity of the cyclones. The results from both EPS indicate a higher level of predictive skill for the position of extratropical cyclones than their intensity and show that there is a larger spread in intensity than position. Further analysis shows that the predicted propagation speed of cyclones is generally too slow for the ECMWF EPS and show a slight bias for the intensity of the cyclones to be overpredicted. This is also true for the NCEP EPS in the SH. For the NCEP EPS in the NH the intensity of the cyclones is underpredicted. There is small bias in both the EPS for the cyclones to be displaced towards the poles. For each ensemble forecast of each cyclone, the predictive skill of the ensemble member that best predicts the cyclones position and intensity was computed. The results are very encouraging showing that the predictive skill of the best ensemble member is significantly higher than that of the control forecast in terms of both the position and intensity of the cyclones. The prediction of cyclones before they are identified as 850 hPa vorticity centers in the analysis cycle was also considered. It is shown that an indication of extratropical cyclones can be given by at least 1 ensemble member 7 days before they are identified in the analysis. Further analysis of the ECMWF EPS shows that the ensemble mean has a higher level of skill than the control forecast, particularly for the intensity of the cyclones, 2 from day 3 of the forecast. There is a higher level of skill in the NH than the SH and the spread in the SH is correspondingly larger. The difference between the ensemble mean and spread is very small for the position of the cyclones, but the spread of the ensemble is smaller than the ensemble mean error for the intensity of the cyclones in both hemispheres. Results also show that the ECMWF control forecast has ½ to 1 day more skill than the perturbed members, for both the position and intensity of the cyclones, throughout the forecast

Capturing and characterising pre-failure strain on failing slopes

Effective management of slope hazards requires an understanding of the likely triggers, geometry, failure dynamics, mechanism and timing; of these the last two remain most problematic. Reducing the epistemic uncertainty of these elements is crucial, particularly for landslides that are not easily mitigated. The ‘inverse-velocity method’ utilises the linearity in inverse-strain-rate change through time in brittle materials to forecast the timing of final slope collapse. A significant body of published deformation data is available, yet to date there has been no attempt to collate a catalogue of landslide deformations from a large number of sites to examine emergent behaviour; notably variations in and controls on movement prior to failure. This thesis collates thirty-one examples of tertiary creep and related attributes from a broad literature search of over 6,000 peer-reviewed journals. Results show that tertiary creep operates over durations ranging from ~37 minutes to 3,171 days. Patterns of acceleration corroborated with published parameterisations of brittle failure; namely Voight’s (1989) model. Most examples (86%) were best-fit with hyperbolic curves, described by an α coefficient within the 1.7 and 2.2 range; indicative of deformation driven by crack growth. No significant relationships between slope and creep characteristics were found within the database of examples, however the lack of standard reporting of slope failures, particularly between industry documents and academic papers, limits the analysis. The database validates the ‘inverse-velocity method’ as a robust forecasting technique. Iterative a priori analysis of data has shown that slopes deforming in a brittle manner are more likely to predict slope collapse ‘too soon’ as a false positive prediction. Analysis has also shown that tertiary creep is typically delimited (87% of examples) within the first 25% of the total creep duration. Recommendations towards monitoring specifically highlight the need for instruments to deliver spatial accuracies to ~10mm, surface based capture and continuous measurement. Developing processing procedures for point cloud data derived from a permanent terrestrial laser scanning system is recommended as the best approach to small-scale deformation monitoring

Class, status and gender : a comparative study of perceptions of class and status in an Inner London Borough

This study of thirty mothers of young children and their respective partners examines the salience of class, gender and local status groups as subjective categories in social identity and attitudes, in order to discover the extent to which people are politically conscious in terms of these three groups. The research was undertaken in Stamford Hill , a poor and culturally mixed inner London district, which is gradually becoming "gentrified"

Ecofeminism and Natural Disasters: Sri Lankan Women Post-Tsunami

Women experience a host of negative consequences during and after a natural disaster. A variety of feminist theories have been used to explore this phenomenon. The aim of this paper is to posit the need for an ecofeminist perspective on analyzing women’s vulnerabilities post-natural disaster. The authors will discuss the history and branches of ecofeminism, highlighting their utility in exploring the intersection of race, class, and gender in the aftermath of disaster. An ecofeminist analysis of Sri Lankan women’s vulnerability in the wake of the 2004 tsunami will be used to illustrate the utility of the theory. Implications of using ecofeminism in natural disaster research will be discussed

Couples\u27 Conceptualizations of Problems in Couple Therapy

While a great deal is known about the problems that clients bring to therapy, little is known about the way in which clients conceptualize problems during the course of couple therapy. Understanding clients’ conceptualizations of problems is important because it provides the therapist with a client-centered context on how to approach discussions about the problems during the course of treatment. This manuscript provides the results of an exploratory qualitative inquiry concerning how clients conceptualize problems during therapy and across the trajectory of treatment. The sample consisted of 26 individuals comprising 13 couples attending couple therapy. Participants completed a semi-structured interview prior to the first and after the second, third, and fourth therapy session. Analysis included grounded theory and discourse analysis. Results suggested that couples approach problems from an individualistic standpoint, they internalize problems, and they expect to recover from problems. The authors discuss how therapists may challenge dominant discourses around problems during couple therapy

Real-time prediction of rain-triggered lahars: incorporating seasonality and catchment recovery

Rain-triggered lahars are a significant secondary hydrological and geomorphic hazard at volcanoes where unconsolidated pyroclastic material produced by explosive eruptions is exposed to intense rainfall, often occurring for years to decades after the initial eruptive activity. Previous studies have shown that secondary lahar initiation is a function of rainfall parameters, source material characteristics and time since eruptive activity. In this study, probabilistic rain-triggered lahar forecasting models are developed using the lahar occurrence and rainfall record of the Belham River valley at the Soufrière Hills volcano (SHV), Montserrat, collected between April 2010 and April 2012. In addition to the use of peak rainfall intensity (PRI) as a base forecasting parameter, considerations for the effects of rainfall seasonality and catchment evolution upon the initiation of rain-triggered lahars and the predictability of lahar generation are also incorporated into these models. Lahar probability increases with peak 1 h rainfall intensity throughout the 2-year dataset and is higher under given rainfall conditions in year 1 than year 2. The probability of lahars is also enhanced during the wet season, when large-scale synoptic weather systems (including tropical cyclones) are more common and antecedent rainfall and thus levels of deposit saturation are typically increased. The incorporation of antecedent conditions and catchment evolution into logistic-regression-based rain-triggered lahar probability estimation models is shown to enhance model performance and displays the potential for successful real-time prediction of lahars, even in areas featuring strongly seasonal climates and temporal catchment recovery

Factors that influence success when training videofluoroscopic swallowing study analysts

Background: The literature relating to videofluoroscopic swallowing study (VFSS) training is sparse. The available evidence suggests that the learner, environment, and training design might influence VFSS analysts’ skill development. Aims: To identify the factors that VFSS analysts perceive to influence VFSS training. Methods & Procedures: In this qualitative study we interviewed nine speech pathologists from three countries who train VFSS analysts. The interviews followed a semi-structured guide to obtain data describing the trajectory of skill development and the influence of the learner, environment, and training design. We completed a thematic analysis using a simultaneously deductive and inductive approach. Outcomes & Results: Participants indicated that they believed that a trainee’s clinical experience, cognitive attributes, and learning preferences may influence their skill development. Trainers perceived a need to balance increasing the complexity of the task against maintaining the trainee’s confidence. The opportunity to practise and receive feedback was considered important. Barriers to practice were discussed. Training was perceived to have increased in complexity as the field of dysphagia has matured. Participants discussed the interacting demands of time and competency in this evolving environment. Conclusions & Implications: VFSS analytical skill development requires an investment of time by the trainee, trainer, and service. Trainers perceived that the trajectory of training and the time taken to reach competency varied according to the trainee, trainer, training design, and training environment factors. Future research into the impact of these influences and training content is needed to identify ways to provide sufficient practice and support learner differences to reduce the costs and time associated with training

Interpreting flash flood palaeoflow parameters from antidunes and gravel lenses: An example from Montserrat, West Indies

The wavelength of stationary water–surface waves and their associated antidune bedforms are related to the mean velocity and depth of formative flow. In sand-bed flume experiments, Alexander et al. (2001) found that lens structures were preserved during antidune growth and change, and the dimension of the lenses were empirically related to antidune wavelength, and thus could be used to estimate flow velocity and depth. This study is the first to compare observations of formative flow conditions and resulting sedimentary structures in a natural setting, testing the Alexander et al. (2001) relationship at a field-scale. Trains of stationary and upstream migrating water–surface waves were prevalent during the flash flood in October 2012 in the Belham Valley, Montserrat, West Indies. Wave positions and wavelengths were assessed at 900 s intervals through the daylight hours of the event within a monitored reach. The wave data indicate flow depths up to 1.3 m and velocity up to 3.6 m s−1. Sedimentary structures formed by antidune growth and change were preserved in the event deposit. These structures include lenses of clast-supported gravel and massive sand, with varying internal architecture. The lenses and associated low angle strata are comparable to sand-bed structures formed from stationary and upstream migrating waves in flume experiments, confirming the diagnostic value of these structures. Using mean lens length in the event deposit underestimated peak flow conditions during the flood, and implied that the lenses were preserved during waning flow