Political Budget Cycles: Evidence from Swiss Cantons

Models of political budget cycles assume that politicians use fiscal policy to increase their chances of re-election. However, empirical results for advanced economies provide ambiguous support for the existence of such electoral cycles. Also, studies focusing on the regional or local level of advanced economies have found a variety of different results. In this paper, we use data at the sub-federal level of Switzerland from 1978 through 2015 to test for the presence of political budget cycles. Swiss regions called cantons are highly autonomous with regard to budgetary policy and have established direct democratic systems with frequent referendums that often affect budgetary issues. In most cantons, there are fiscal policy rules that restrict the budgetary leeway of governments. Against the backdrop of public discussions in several European countries on adopting more direct democratic elements, the Swiss experience on political budget cycles provides an interesting case study. Overall, the system of government is designed to foster consensus seeking and gradual adjustment. These features should make the short-run opportunistic or partisan use of fiscal policy less likely in Swiss cantons. Rather surprisingly, however, we find at least some evidence for an electoral cycle in government spending. For government revenue or the overall budget, our empirical results do not point to an electoral cycle

Political Budget Cycles: Evidence from Swiss Cantons

Models of political budget cycles assume that politicians use fiscal policy to increase their chances of re-election. However, empirical results for advanced economies provide ambiguous support for the existence of such electoral cycles. Also, studies focusing on the regional or local level of advanced economies have found a variety of different results. In this paper, we use data at the sub-federal level of Switzerland from 1978 through 2015 to test for the presence of political budget cycles. Swiss regions called cantons are highly autonomous with regard to budgetary policy and have established direct democratic systems with frequent referendums that often affect budgetary issues. In most cantons, there are fiscal policy rules that restrict the budgetary leeway of governments. Against the backdrop of public discussions in several European countries on adopting more direct democratic elements, the Swiss experience on political budget cycles provides an interesting case study. Overall, the system of government is designed to foster consensus seeking and gradual adjustment. These features should make the short-run opportunistic or partisan use of fiscal policy less likely in Swiss cantons. Rather surprisingly, however, we find at least some evidence for an electoral cycle in government spending. For government revenue or the overall budget, our empirical results do not point to an electoral cycle

Personality-related Competencies of (Prospective) Teachers

This thesis presents three publications of empirical studies. The publications and their results are an integral part of the project "MORE" (Meaningful Occupational REflection) - a sub-project of "KOLEG2 - Kooperative Lehrerbildung Gestalten 2", a project at the University of Regensburg, which is a part of the "Qualitätsoffensive Lehrerbildung", a joint initiative of the Federal Government and the Länder with the aim of improving the quality of teacher training. The program is funded by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research. The aim of the project MORE at the University of Regensburg is an aptitude assessment (see recommendations of the KMK - Conference of Ministers of Education, 2013), called "MORE-ONLINE", in the sense of supporting deliberating on the professional goal of teaching against the backround of an ongoing task to enable the development of personality-related competencies of teachers, which are preconditions for teachers' well-being and an optimal support of students. As a general basis for the MORE-ONLINE, a reflection model regarding personality-related competencies of teachers was developed according to the current state of research. Under the overarching framework of the MORE project and the personality model, three content areas (Study 1, 2 & 3) were selected and empirically examined in more detail. The goals of Study 1 & 2 were to answer the core questions resulting from the literature research on the basis of current psychological theories. Furthermore, a tool for clarifying necessary development tasks of teacher students was empirically investigated by an experiment to evaluate its effectiveness (Study 3). The three studies in this work have been published in peer-reviewed journals in the last few months and are reproduced in the accepted version with the approval of the publisher. The contributions of the co-authors to the three studies are shown on page six. The references of the three studies were integrated into one reference list at the end of this work. Otherwise, the manuscripts of the three publications remain unchanged

Heat transfer correlation for flow boiling in small to micro tubes

This article is available open access under a Creative Commons license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/) Copyright © 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.There is a large discrepancy in the open literature about the comparative performance of the existing macro and microscale heat transfer models and correlations when applied to small/micro flow boiling systems. This paper presents a detailed comparison of the flow boiling heat transfer coefficient for R134a in stainless steel micro tubes with 21 macro and microscale correlations and models. The experimental database that was used in the comparison includes the data for 1.1 and 0.52 mm diameter tubes, mass flux range of 100–500 kg/m2 s and system pressure range 6–10 bar obtained in the course of this study. The effect of the evaporator heated length on the comparative performance of the correlations and models was investigated using three different lengths of the 1.1 mm diameter tube (L = 150, 300 and 450 mm). This comparative study demonstrated that none of the assessed models and correlations could predict the experimental data with a reasonable accuracy. Also, the predictability of most correlations becomes worse as the heated length increases. This may contribute in explaining the discrepancy in the comparative performance of the correlations from one study to another. A new correlation is proposed in the present study based on the superposition model of Chen. The database used in developing the correlation consists of 5152 data points including the current experimental data and data obtained previously with the same test rig, fluid and methodology for tubes of diameter 4.26, 2.88, 2.01 mm. The new correlation predicted 92% of the data within the ±30% error bands with a MAE value of 14.3%

CONCENTRATION OF FATTY ACID ETHYL ESTERS IN HAIR OF ALCOHOLICS: COMPARISON TO OTHER BIOLOGICAL STATE MARKERS AND SELF REPORTED-ETHANOL INTAKE

Aims: In a variety of clinical and forensic situations long term use of alcohol must be monitored. In this project we explore the utility of fatty acid ethyl esters (FAEE) in this regard. Additionally, we propose a cut-off value of FAEE to distinguish teetotallers/moderate/social drinkers from alcoholics or individuals drinking at harmful levels. Patients and methods: FAEE levels from 18 alcohol-dependent patients in detoxification were contrasted with those of 10 social drinkers and 10 teetotallers. FAEE in hair were determined, using headspace solid phase microextraction and gas chromatography mass spectrometry. CFAEE, as sum of the concentrations of four esters, was compared to a major FAEE, ethyl palmitate. PEth was measured in heparinized whole blood with a high pressure liquid chromatography (HPLC) method. Drinking validation criteria include self reports, phosphatidyl ethanol (PEth) in whole blood as well as the traditional markers of heavy drinking, gamma glutamyl transpeptidase (GGT), mean corpuscular volume (MCV) and carbohydrate deficient transferrin (CDT). Results: Receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis for CFAEE, indicated a sensitivity of 100% and a specificity of 90% for a cut-off of 0.29 ng/mg. By using a cut-off of 0.4 ng/mg, CFAEE identified 94.4% correctly. CFAEE and ethyl palmitate were significantly associated (r = 0.945; P < 0.001) as were CFAEE and PEth (r = 0.527; P = 0.025). No significant correlation was found between CFAEE and total grams of ethanol consumed last month, blood-alcohol concentration at admission to the hospital, CDT, MCV, or GGT. Among the serum and blood markers, %CDT identified 47.1%, MCV 38.8% and GGT 72.2% of patients with chronic intake of higher amounts of ethanol correctly, whereas PEth achieved 100% accuracy. Conclusions: The data suggest that CFAEE is a potentially valuable marker of chronic intake of high quantities of ethanol. Furthermore, the results indicate that a reasonable and provisional FAEE cut-off to distinguish between social/moderate and heavy drinking/alcoholism in hair is 0.4 ng/m

Is late-life dependency increasing or not? A comparison of the Cognitive Function and Ageing Studies (CFAS)

Background: Little is known about how dependency levels have changed between generational cohorts of older people. We estimated years lived in different care states at age 65 in 1991 and 2011 and new projections of future demand for care. Methods: Two population-based studies of older people in defined geographical areas conducted two decades apart (the Cognitive Function and Ageing Studies) provided prevalence estimates of dependency in four states: high (24-hour care); medium (daily care); low (less than daily); independent. Years in each dependency state were calculated by Sullivan’s method. To project future demand, the proportions in each dependency state (by age group and sex) were applied to the 2014 England population projections. Findings: Between 1991 and 2011 there were significant increases in years lived from age 65 with low (men:1·7 years, 95%CI 1·0-2·4; women:2·4 years, 95%CI 1·8-3·1) and high dependency (men:0·9 years, 95%CI 0·2-1·7; women:1·3 years, 95%CI 0·5-2·1). The majority of men’s extra years of life were independent (36%) or with low dependency (36%) whilst for women the majority were spent with low dependency (58%), only 5% being independent. There were substantial reductions in the proportions with medium and high dependency who lived in care homes, although, if these dependency and care home proportions remain constant in the future, further population ageing will require an extra 71,000 care home places by 2025. Interpretation: On average older men now spend 2.4 years and women 3.0 years with substantial care needs (medium or high dependency), and most will live in the community. These findings have considerable implications for older people’s families who provide the majority of unpaid care, but the findings also supply valuable new information for governments and care providers planning the resources and funding required for the care of their future ageing populations

Splenic red pulp macrophages provide a niche for CML stem cells and induce therapy resistance.

Disease progression and relapse of chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) are caused by therapy resistant leukemia stem cells (LSCs), and cure relies on their eradication. The microenvironment in the bone marrow (BM) is known to contribute to LSC maintenance and resistance. Although leukemic infiltration of the spleen is a hallmark of CML, it is unknown whether spleen cells form a niche that maintains LSCs. Here, we demonstrate that LSCs preferentially accumulate in the spleen and contribute to disease progression. Spleen LSCs were located in the red pulp close to red pulp macrophages (RPM) in CML patients and in a murine CML model. Pharmacologic and genetic depletion of RPM reduced LSCs and decreased their cell cycling activity in the spleen. Gene expression analysis revealed enriched stemness and decreased myeloid lineage differentiation in spleen leukemic stem and progenitor cells (LSPCs). These results demonstrate that splenic RPM form a niche that maintains CML LSCs in a quiescent state, resulting in disease progression and resistance to therapy

A novel satellite mission concept for upper air water vapour, aerosol and cloud observations using integrated path differential absorption LiDAR limb sounding

We propose a new satellite mission to deliver high quality measurements of upper air water vapour. The concept centres around a LiDAR in limb sounding by occultation geometry, designed to operate as a very long path system for differential absorption measurements. We present a preliminary performance analysis with a system sized to send 75 mJ pulses at 25 Hz at four wavelengths close to 935 nm, to up to 5 microsatellites in a counter-rotating orbit, carrying retroreflectors characterized by a reflected beam divergence of roughly twice the emitted laser beam divergence of 15 µrad. This provides water vapour profiles with a vertical sampling of 110 m; preliminary calculations suggest that the system could detect concentrations of less than 5 ppm. A secondary payload of a fairly conventional medium resolution multispectral radiometer allows wide-swath cloud and aerosol imaging. The total weight and power of the system are estimated at 3 tons and 2,700 W respectively. This novel concept presents significant challenges, including the performance of the lasers in space, the tracking between the main spacecraft and the retroreflectors, the refractive effects of turbulence, and the design of the telescopes to achieve a high signal-to-noise ratio for the high precision measurements. The mission concept was conceived at the Alpbach Summer School 2010

Інформаційна технологія для класифікації наукових текстів на основі методу модифікованої логістичної регресії

Об’єкт дослідження: процес класифікації наукових текстів та практичне використання технологій обробки природної мови в освітніх додатках, з метою підвищення ефективності освітнього процесу. Предмет дослідження: методи, моделі машинного навчання та обробки природньої мови у задачах класифікації наукових текстів. Мета магістерської роботи: вдосконалення та пришвидшення процесу класифікації текстів з допомогою моделі логістичної регресії, з метою застосування її у освітніх додатках для покращення освітнього процесу. Методи дослідження. Для створення рекомендаційного та навчального асистента були використані засоби та методи машинного навчання, теорії множин, лінейної алгебри й обробки природної мови. Наукова новизна полягає у тому, що вдосконалено та розширено можливості методу логістичної регресії на основі комбінування його з методом ранжування, що в результаті дозволило використати метод логістичної регресії для навчального асистенті. Практична цінність полягає у тому, що в результаті роботи, було створено прототип навчального асистента, що використовує скомбіновану з методом ранжування модель логістичної регресії для класифікації текстів. Використані методи та підходи у прототипі можуть застосовуватись як при розробці «інтелектуальних» навчальних систем, так й в практиці викладання дисциплін, пов’язаних з обробкою природної мови

A two decade dementia incidence comparison from the Cognitive Function and Ageing Studies I and II.

Dramatic global increases in future numbers of people with dementia have been predicted. No multicentre population-based study powered to detect changes over time has reported dementia incidence. MRC Cognitive Function and Ageing Study (CFAS) undertook baseline interviews in populations aged 65+ years in England and Wales (1989-1994). Three areas (CFAS I) were selected for new sampling two decades later (2008-2011) with same geographical boundaries, sampling and approach methods (CFAS II). At 2 years CFAS I interviewed 5,156 (76% response) with 5,288 interviewed in CFAS II (74% response). Here we report a 20% drop in incidence (95% CI: 0-40%), driven by a reduction in men across all ages above 65. In the UK we estimate 209,600 new dementia cases per year. This study was uniquely designed to test for differences across geography and time. A reduction of age-specific incidence means that the numbers of people estimated to develop dementia in any year has remained relatively stable.CFAS II has been supported by the UK Medical Research Council (Research Grant: G06010220) and received additional support from the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR), comprehensive clinical research networks in West Anglia, Nottingham City and Nottinghamshire County NHS Primary Care trusts and the dementias and neurodegenerative disease research Network (DeNDRoN) in Newcastle. MRC CFAS I was funded by the MRC (Research Grant: G9901400) and the National Health Service (NHS). F.E.M. is supported by the MRC (Research Grant: U105292687). This research was done within the UK National Institute of Health Research collaboration for leadership in applied health research and care for Cambridgeshire and Peterborough (CLAHRC EoE), the Biomedical Research Centre infrastructures at Cambridge and Newcastle upon Tyne. We thank the participants, their families, the general practitioners and their staff, the primary care trusts and CCGs for their cooperation and support. We thank the CFAS II fieldwork interviewers at Cambridge, Nottingham and Newcastle for their valuable contribution. Funding was given by UK Medical Research Council.This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from Nature Publishing Group via http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ncomms1139