Loss of life expectancy from air pollution compared to other risk factors: a worldwide perspective.

AIMS: Long-term exposure of humans to air pollution enhances the risk of cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. A novel Global Exposure Mortality Model (GEMM) has been derived from many cohort studies, providing much-improved coverage of the exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5). We applied the GEMM to assess excess mortality attributable to ambient air pollution on a global scale and compare to other risk factors. METHODS AND RESULTS: We used a data-informed atmospheric model to calculate worldwide exposure to PM2.5 and ozone pollution, which was combined with the GEMM to estimate disease-specific excess mortality and loss of life expectancy (LLE) in 2015. Using this model, we investigated the effects of different pollution sources, distinguishing between natural (wildfires, aeolian dust) and anthropogenic emissions, including fossil fuel use. Global excess mortality from all ambient air pollution is estimated at 8.8 (7.11-10.41) million/year, with an LLE of 2.9 (2.3-3.5) years, being a factor of two higher than earlier estimates, and exceeding that of tobacco smoking. The global mean mortality rate of about 120 per 100 000 people/year is much exceeded in East Asia (196 per 100 000/year) and Europe (133 per 100 000/year). Without fossil fuel emissions, the global mean life expectancy would increase by 1.1 (0.9-1.2) years and 1.7 (1.4-2.0) years by removing all potentially controllable anthropogenic emissions. Because aeolian dust and wildfire emission control is impracticable, significant LLE is unavoidable. CONCLUSION: Ambient air pollution is one of the main global health risks, causing significant excess mortality and LLE, especially through cardiovascular diseases. It causes an LLE that rivals that of tobacco smoking. The global mean LLE from air pollution strongly exceeds that by violence (all forms together), i.e. by an order of magnitude (LLE being 2.9 and 0.3 years, respectively)

Evaluation of near-surface groundwater aquifers through integrated geophysical and geodetic measurements

Abstract Extensive geophysical and geodetic measurements were carried out to evaluate the groundwater aquifer, trace the basement relief, as well as detect the igneous intrusions and structural elements (mainly faults) that affect the occurrence of groundwater in the study area. The fieldwork included resistivity sounding, a geomagnetic survey, and Global Positioning System measurements. The magnetic results showed the presence of a group of main faults in East-west trend at the western part of the area and major fault at the northern part of the area of NW-SW trend. The findings also showed the presence of two igneous rock intrusions located in the middle of the eastern part of the valley. Pronounced differences in the depths of basement rocks have been identified, ranging between 0 and 900 m from the surface. Both high horizontal movements and high shear strain rates have been found to be concentrated at the southeast of the study area and it was noted that high stress was accumulated along the main observed faults and at the main groundwater aquifers. The geoelectrical results confirmed the presence of two aquifers; a shallow aquifer (Quaternary aquifer) that narrows northwards and a Nubian sandstone aquifer, which considered the main aquifer. The Nubian sandstone aquifer carries groundwater in the region, which overlies the last geoelectric unit represented by the basement complex layer and geological structures affecting the potential availability of groundwater in the study area, as proved by the geomagnetic survey and stress accumulation

Magmatic Evolution and Rare Metal Mineralization in Mount El-Sibai Peralkaline Granites, Central Eastern Desert, Egypt: Insights from Whole-Rock Geochemistry and Mineral Chemistry Data

The Ediacaran peralkaline granites, which were emplaced during the post-collisional tectonic extensional stage, have a limited occurrence in the northern tip of the Nubian Shield. In this contribution, we present new mineralogical and geochemical data of Mount El-Sibai granites from the Central Eastern Desert of Egypt. The aim is to discuss their crystallization condition, tectonic setting, and petrogenesis as well as the magmatic evolution of their associated mineralization. Mount El-Sibai consists of alkali-feldspar granites (AFGs) as a main rock unit with scattered and small occurrences of alkali-amphibole granites (AAGs) at the periphery. The AAG contain columbite, nioboaeschynite, zircon and thorite as important rare metal-bearing minerals. Geochemically, both of AFG and AAG exhibit a highly evolved nature with a typical peralkaline composition (A/CNK = 0.82–0.97) and formed in within-plate anorogenic setting associated with crustal extension and/or rifting. They are enriched in some LILEs (Rb, K, and Th) and HFSEs (Ta, Pb, Zr, and Y), but strongly depleted in Ba, Sr, P and Ti with pronounced negative Eu anomalies (Eu/Eu* = 0.07–0.34), consistent with an A-type granite geochemical signature. The calculated TZrn (774–878 °C) temperatures indicate that the magma was significantly hot, promoting the saturation of zircon. The texture and chemistry of minerals suggest that they were crystallized directly from a granitic magma and were later subject to late- to post-magmatic fluids. Both granitic types were most likely generated through partial melting of a juvenile crustal source followed by magmatic fractionation. The lithospheric delamination is the main mechanism which causes uplifting of the asthenospheric melts and hence provides enough heat for crustal melting. The produced parent magma was subjected to prolonged fractional crystallization to produce the different types of Mount El-Sibai granites at different shallow crustal levels. During magma fractionation, the post-magmatic fluids (especially fluorine) contribute significantly to the formation of rare metal mineralization within Mount El-Sibai granites

Spatial Prediction of Groundwater Withdrawal Potential Using Shallow, Hybrid, and Deep Learning Algorithms in the Toudgha Oasis, Southeast Morocco

peer reviewedWater availability is a key factor in territorial sustainable development. Moreover, groundwater constitutes the survival element of human life and ecosystems in arid oasis areas. Therefore, groundwater potential (GWP) identification represents a crucial step for its management and sustainable development. This study aimed to map the GWP using ten algorithms, i.e., shallow models comprising: multilayer perceptron, k-nearest neighbor, decision tree, and support vector machine algorithms; hybrid models comprising: voting, random forest, adaptive boosting, gradient boosting (GraB), and extreme gradient boosting; and the deep learning neural network. The GWP inventory map was prepared using 884 binary data, with “1” indicating a high GWP and “0” indicating an extremely low GWP. Twenty-three GWP-influencing factors have been classified into numerical data using the frequency ration method. Afterwards, they were selected based on their importance and multi-collinearity tests. The predicted GWP maps show that, on average, only 11% of the total area was predicted as a very high GWP zone and 17% and 51% were estimated as low and very low GWP zones, respectively. The performance analyses demonstrate that the applied algorithms have satisfied the validation standards for both training and validation tests with an average area under curve of 0.89 for the receiver operating characteristic. Furthermore, the models’ prioritization has selected the GraB model as the outperforming algorithm for GWP mapping. This study provides decision support tools for sustainable development in an oasis area

Landslide Susceptibility Assessment of a Part of the Western Ghats (India) Employing the AHP and F-AHP Models and Comparison with Existing Susceptibility Maps

Landslides are prevalent in the Western Ghats, and the incidences that happened in 2021 in the Koottickal area of the Kottayam district (Western Ghats) resulted in the loss of 10 lives. The objectives of this study are to assess the landslide susceptibility of the high-range local self-governments (LSGs) in the Kottayam district using the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy-AHP (F-AHP) models and to compare the performance of existing landslide susceptible maps. This area never witnessed any massive landslides of this dimension, which warrants the necessity of relooking into the existing landslide-susceptible models. For AHP and F-AHP modeling, ten conditioning factors were selected: slope, soil texture, land use/land cover (LULC), geomorphology, road buffer, lithology, and satellite image-derived indices such as the normalized difference road landslide index (NDRLI), the normalized difference water index (NDWI), the normalized burn ratio (NBR), and the soil-adjusted vegetation index (SAVI). The landslide-susceptible zones were categorized into three: low, moderate, and high. The validation of the maps created using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) technique ascertained the performances of the AHP, F-AHP, and TISSA maps as excellent, with an area under the ROC curve (AUC) value above 0.80, and the NCESS map as acceptable, with an AUC value above 0.70. Though the difference is negligible, the map prepared using the TISSA model has better performance (AUC = 0.889) than the F-AHP (AUC = 0.872), AHP (AUC = 0.867), and NCESS (AUC = 0.789) models. The validation of maps employing other matrices such as accuracy, mean absolute error (MAE), and root mean square error (RMSE) also confirmed that the TISSA model (0.869, 0.226, and 0.122, respectively) has better performance, followed by the F-AHP (0.856, 0.243, and 0.147, respectively), AHP (0.855, 0.249, and 0.159, respectively), and NCESS (0.770, 0.309, and 0.177, respectively) models. The most landslide-inducing factors in this area that were identified through this study are slope, soil texture, LULC, geomorphology, and NDRLI. Koottickal, Poonjar-Thekkekara, Moonnilavu, Thalanad, and Koruthodu are the LSGs that are highly susceptible to landslides. The identification of landslide-susceptible areas using diversified techniques will aid decision-makers in identifying critical infrastructure at risk and alternate routes for emergency evacuation of people to safer terrain during an exigency

The contribution of outdoor air pollution sources to premature mortality on a global scale

Assessment of the global burden of disease is based on epidemiological cohort studies that connect premature mortality to a wide range of causes, including the long-term health impacts of ozone and fine particulate matter with a diameter smaller than 2.5 micrometres (PM2.5). It has proved difficult to quantify premature mortality related to air pollution, notably in regions where air quality is not monitored, and also because the toxicity of particles from various sources may vary. Here we use a global atmospheric chemistry model to investigate the link between premature mortality and seven emission source categories in urban and rural environments. In accord with the global burden of disease for 2010 (ref. 5), we calculate that outdoor air pollution, mostly by PM2.5, leads to 3.3 (95 per cent confidence interval 1.61-4.81) million premature deaths per year worldwide, predominantly in Asia. We primarily assume that all particles are equally toxic, but also include a sensitivity study that accounts for differential toxicity. We find that emissions from residential energy use such as heating and cooking, prevalent in India and China, have the largest impact on premature mortality globally, being even more dominant if carbonaceous particles are assumed to be most toxic. Whereas in much of the USA and in a few other countries emissions from traffic and power generation are important, in eastern USA, Europe, Russia and East Asia agricultural emissions make the largest relative contribution to PM2.5, with the estimate of overall health impact depending on assumptions regarding particle toxicity. Model projections based on a business-as-usual emission scenario indicate that the contribution of outdoor air pollution to premature mortality could double by 2050

The Toba supervolcano eruption caused severe tropical stratospheric ozone depletion

Supervolcano eruptions have occurred throughout Earth’s history and have major environmental impacts. These impacts are mostly associated with the attenuation of visible sunlight by stratospheric sulfate aerosols, which causes cooling and deceleration of the water cycle. Supereruptions have been assumed to cause so-called volcanic winters that act as primary evolutionary factors through ecosystem disruption and famine, however, winter conditions alone may not be sufficient to cause such disruption. Here we use Earth system model simulations to show that stratospheric sulfur emissions from the Toba supereruption 74,000 years ago caused severe stratospheric ozone loss through a radiation attenuation mechanism that only moderately depends on the emission magnitude. The Toba plume strongly inhibited oxygen photolysis, suppressing ozone formation in the tropics, where exceptionally depleted ozone conditions persisted for over a year. This effect, when combined with volcanic winter in the extra-tropics, can account for the impacts of supereruptions on ecosystems and humanity.Stratospheric sulfur emissions from the Toba supereruption about 74,000 years ago suppressed ozone formation which caused severe tropical ozone layer depletion and enhanced solar ultraviolet radiation stress, according to Earth system model simulations.King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST) https://doi.org/10.13039/501100004052http://hdl.handle.net/10754/667404https://github.com/SeregaOsipov/NASA-GISS-ModelE/releases/tag/toba_o3https://simplex.giss.nasa.gov/snapshots

Oxygen and hydrogen stable isotopes as recharge indicators, Central Nile Delta Quaternary aquifer, Egypt

This work aims to utilize oxygen and hydrogen stable isotopes as tracers for determining the groundwater sources of recharge in the central Nile delta. The analyzed water samples were collected from canals and drains as surface water, soil water and shallow, intermediate and deep zones of the groundwater. The isotopic data indicated that surface water samples have higher isotopic content than recent Nile river water (&#948 18O = 2.39‰ and &#9482 H = 22‰) which reflect the influence of an evaporation process that takes place in surface water bodies during its flow. Soil water samples were affected by evaporation process during water infiltration via soil. It was estimated that soil water samples have higher enrichment isotopic contents than groundwater and less than surface and recent Nile water. Studied groundwater is composed of mixed source from groundwater recharged before and that recharged after High Dam construction. Few groundwater samples have depleted isotopic content which suggested a mixing source between the rainwater and the Nile River water before High Dam construction. The evaporation is indicated in the shallow groundwater by the deviation away from the global meteoric line. In the deep groundwater, more deviation from global meteoric line was noticed which reflects the effect of mixing between freshwater and seawater. The intermediate groundwater samples average line showed an intermediate deviation indicating the effect of both evaporation and seawater intrusion

Cardiovascular disease burden from ambient air pollution in Europe reassessed using novel hazard ratio functions

Ambient air pollution is a major health risk, leading to respiratory and cardiovascular mortality. A recent Global Exposure Mortality Model, based on an unmatched number of cohort studies in many countries, provides new hazard ratio functions, calling for re-evaluation of the disease burden. Accordingly, we estimated excess cardiovascular mortality attributed to air pollution in Europe.The new hazard ratio functions have been combined with ambient air pollution exposure data to estimate the impacts in Europe and the 28 countries of the European Union (EU-28). The annual excess mortality rate from ambient air pollution in Europe is 790 000 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 645 000–934 000], and 659 000 (95% CI 537 000–775 000) in the EU-28. Between 40% and 80% are due to cardiovascular events, which dominate health outcomes. The upper limit includes events attributed to other non-communicable diseases, which are currently not specified. These estimates exceed recent analyses, such as the Global Burden of Disease for 2015, by more than a factor of two. We estimate that air pollution reduces the mean life expectancy in Europe by about 2.2 years with an annual, attributable per capita mortality rate in Europe of 133/100 000 per year.We provide new data based on novel hazard ratio functions suggesting that the health impacts attributable to ambient air pollution in Europe are substantially higher than previously assumed, though subject to considerable uncertainty. Our results imply that replacing fossil fuels by clean, renewable energy sources could substantially reduce the loss of life expectancy from air pollution

An ecotourism suitability index for a world heritage city using GIS-multi criteria decision analysis techniques

The concept of ecotourism has experienced a significant surge in popularity over the past two decades, primarily driven by the multitude of adverse impacts associated with mass tourism. The objective of the study was to develop a comprehensive ecotourism suitability index to guide policymakers in implementing tourism development policies. Given the considerable appeal of the study area to both local and international tourists, it is essential to conduct a systematic evaluation to pinpoint suitable areas for ecotourism development. This necessity arises from the study area's placement within a fragile ecosystem and its proximity to a UNESCO World Heritage site. We employed a Geographic Information Systems (GIS) integrated environment coupled with a fuzzy Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) methodology. The GIS-MCDA integrated framework leverages the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and a weighted linear combination that seeks to amalgamate many features and criteria to assess ecotourism potential by integrating 20 criteria into six separate categories: landscape, topography, accessibility, climate, forest and wildlife, and negative factors. Weights were allocated to each criterion and factor based on the expert's opinions of their impact on the development of ecotourism. The final ecotourism suitability index comprised five unique classes: very high, high, moderate, less, and not suitable. Results reveal that out of the total areas, 45.4 % (259 km2) are within the high and very high suitable classes. The sensitivity analysis suggested that ecotourism potentials are more favorable to forest and accessibility variables. The generated index can be utilized as a road map since validation verified a 64 % accuracy. Given the dearth of earlier research, this study provides vital support for the development of sustainable ecotourism projects in the study area