373 research outputs found
Stochastic and deterministic models for age-structured populations with genetically variable traits
Understanding how stochastic and non-linear deterministic processes interact
is a major challenge in population dynamics theory. After a short review, we
introduce a stochastic individual-centered particle model to describe the
evolution in continuous time of a population with (continuous) age and trait
structures. The individuals reproduce asexually, age, interact and die. The
'trait' is an individual heritable property (d-dimensional vector) that may
influence birth and death rates and interactions between individuals, and vary
by mutation. In a large population limit, the random process converges to the
solution of a Gurtin-McCamy type PDE. We show that the random model has a long
time behavior that differs from its deterministic limit. However, the results
on the limiting PDE and large deviation techniques \textit{\`a la}
Freidlin-Wentzell provide estimates of the extinction time and a better
understanding of the long time behavior of the stochastic process. This has
applications to the theory of adaptive dynamics used in evolutionary biology.
We present simulations for two biological problems involving life-history trait
evolution when body size is plastic and individual growth is taken into
account.Comment: This work is a proceeding of the CANUM 2008 conferenc
Assessing the risks of changing ongoing management of endangered species
Recovery programmes for endangered species can become increasingly demanding over time, but managers may be reluctant to change ongoing actions that are believed to be assisting recovery. We used a quantitative risk assessment to choose support strategies for a reintroduced population of Mauritius olive white‐eyes Zosterops chloronothos. Facing increasing costs, managers considered changing the ongoing supplementary feeding strategy, but at the same time worried this could jeopardize the observed positive population trend. We used a feeding experiment to compare the current feeding regime and a cheaper alternative (a simple sugar/water mix). Results suggested the cheaper alternative would only marginally reduce population vital rates. We assessed the influence of these results and the associated uncertainty on population recovery and management costs using two decision‐analytic criteria, incremental cost‐effectiveness ratio and stochastic dominance. The new feeding regime was expected to be, on average, more cost‐effective than the status quo. Moreover, even negative outcomes would only likely mean a slower growing population, not a declining one, whereas not changing feeding regime actually entailed greater risk. Because shifting from the current regime to a cheaper sugar/water mixture was both a risk‐averse and a cost‐effective choice, we decided to implement this change. Four years after the experiment, the population continues to grow and costs have been contained, matching predictions almost exactly. In this case, the field experiment provided useful empirical information about prospective actions; the risk analysis then helped us understand the real implications of changing the feeding regime. We encourage managers of recovery plans facing a similar situation to explicitly recognize trade‐offs and risk aversion, and address them by combining targeted research and formal decision analysis
Two-dimensional AMR simulations of colliding flows
Colliding flows are a commonly used scenario for the formation of molecular
clouds in numerical simulations. Due to the thermal instability of the warm
neutral medium, turbulence is produced by cooling. We carry out a
two-dimensional numerical study of such colliding flows in order to test
whether statistical properties inferred from adaptive mesh refinement (AMR)
simulations are robust with respect to the applied refinement criteria. We
compare probability density functions of various quantities as well as the
clump statistics and fractal dimension of the density fields in AMR simulations
to a static-grid simulation. The static grid with 2048^2 cells matches the
resolution of the most refined subgrids in the AMR simulations. The density
statistics is reproduced fairly well by AMR. Refinement criteria based on the
cooling time or the turbulence intensity appear to be superior to the standard
technique of refinement by overdensity. Nevertheless, substantial differences
in the flow structure become apparent. In general, it is difficult to separate
numerical effects from genuine physical processes in AMR simulations.Comment: 6 pages, 6 figures, submitted to A&
Multiwavelength Campaign on Mrk 509 X. Lower limit on the distance of the absorber from HST COS and STIS spectroscopy
Active Galactic Nuclei often show evidence of photoionized outflows. A major
uncertainty in models for these outflows is the distance () to the gas from
the central black hole. In this paper we use the HST/COS data from a massive
multi-wavelength monitoring campaign on the bright Seyfert I galaxy Mrk 509, in
combination with archival HST/STIS data, to constrain the location of the
various kinematic components of the outflow. We compare the expected response
of the photoionized gas to changes in ionizing flux with the changes measured
in the data using the following steps: 1) We compare the column densities of
each kinematic component measured in the 2001 STIS data with those measured in
the 2009 COS data; 2) We use time-dependent photionization calculations with a
set of simulated lightcurves to put statistical upper limits on the hydrogen
number density that are consistent with the observed small changes in the ionic
column densities; 3) From the upper limit on the number density, we calculate a
lower limit on the distance to the absorber from the central source via the
prior determination of the ionization parameter. Our method offers two
improvements on traditional timescale analysis. First, we account for the
physical behavior of AGN lightcurves. Second, our analysis accounts for the
quality of measurement in cases where no changes are observed in the absorption
troughs. The very small variations in trough ionic column densities (mostly
consistent with no change) between the 2001 and 2009 epochs allow us to put
statistical lower limits on the distance between 100--200 pc for all the major
UV absorption components at a confidence level of 99%. These results are mainly
consistent with the independent distance estimates derived for the warm
absorbers from the simultaneous X-ray spectra.Comment: Accepted to A&A (06 APR 2012
High-Resolution X-ray Spectroscopy of the Interstellar Medium
The interstellar medium (ISM) has a multiphase structure characterized by
gas, dust and molecules. The gas can be found in different charge states:
neutral, low-ionized (warm) and high-ionized (hot). It is possible to probe the
multiphase ISM through the observation of its absorption lines and edges in the
X-ray spectra of background sources. We present a high-quality RGS spectrum of
the low-mass X-ray binary GS 1826-238 with an unprecedent detailed treatment of
the absorption features due to the dust and both the neutral and ionized gas of
the ISM. We constrain the column density ratios within the different phases of
the ISM and measure the abundances of elements such as O, Ne, Fe and Mg. We
found significant deviations from the proto-Solar abundances: oxygen is
over-abundant by a factor 1.23 +/- 0.05, neon 1.75 +/- 0.11, iron 1.37 +/- 0.17
and magnesium 2.45 +/- 0.35. The abundances are consistent with the measured
metallicity gradient in our Galaxy: the ISM appears to be metal-rich in the
inner regions. The spectrum also shows the presence of warm/hot ionized gas.
The gas column has a total ionization degree less than 10%. We also show that
dust plays an important role as expected from the position of GS 1826-238: most
iron appears to be bound in dust grains, while 10-40% of oxygen consists of a
mixture of dust and molecules
Supernova Remnants as Clues to Their Progenitors
Supernovae shape the interstellar medium, chemically enrich their host
galaxies, and generate powerful interstellar shocks that drive future
generations of star formation. The shock produced by a supernova event acts as
a type of time machine, probing the mass loss history of the progenitor system
back to ages of 10 000 years before the explosion, whereas supernova
remnants probe a much earlier stage of stellar evolution, interacting with
material expelled during the progenitor's much earlier evolution. In this
chapter we will review how observations of supernova remnants allow us to infer
fundamental properties of the progenitor system. We will provide detailed
examples of how bulk characteristics of a remnant, such as its chemical
composition and dynamics, allow us to infer properties of the progenitor
evolution. In the latter half of this chapter, we will show how this exercise
may be extended from individual objects to SNR as classes of objects, and how
there are clear bifurcations in the dynamics and spectral characteristics of
core collapse and thermonuclear supernova remnants. We will finish the chapter
by touching on recent advances in the modeling of massive stars, and the
implications for observable properties of supernovae and their remnants.Comment: A chapter in "Handbook of Supernovae" edited by Athem W. Alsabti and
Paul Murdin (18 pages, 6 figures
Disordered Environments in Spatial Games
The Prisoner's dilemma is the main game theoretical framework in which the
onset and maintainance of cooperation in biological populations is studied. In
the spatial version of the model, we study the robustness of cooperation in
heterogeneous ecosystems in spatial evolutionary games by considering site
diluted lattices. The main result is that due to disorder, the fraction of
cooperators in the population is enhanced. Moreover, the system presents a
dynamical transition at , separating a region with spatial chaos from
one with localized, stable groups of cooperators.Comment: 6 pages, 5 figure
Gamma-Rays and the Far-Infrared-Radio Continuum Correlation Reveal a Powerful Galactic Centre Wind
We consider the thermal and non-thermal emission from the inner 200 pc of the
Galaxy. The radiation from this almost star-burst-like region is ultimately
driven dominantly by on-going massive star formation. We show that this
region's radio continuum (RC) emission is in relative deficit with respect to
the expectation afforded by the Far- infrared-Radio Continuum Correlation
(FRC). Likewise we show that the region's gamma-ray emission falls short of
that expected given its star formation and resultant supernova rates. These
facts are compellingly explained by positing that a powerful (400-1200 km/s)
wind is launched from the region. This wind probably plays a number of
important roles including advecting positrons into the Galactic bulge thus
explaining the observed ~kpc extension of the 511 keV positron annihilation
signal around the GC. We also show that the large-scale GC magnetic field falls
in the range ~100-300 microG and that - in the time they remain in the region -
GC cosmic rays do not penetrate into the region's densest molecular material.Comment: Version accepted for publication in MNRAS Letters. Discussion
extended and references adde
On the Origin of Cosmic Magnetic Fields
We review the literature concerning how the cosmic magnetic fields pervading
nearly all galaxies actually got started. some observational evidence involves
the chemical abundance of the light elements Be and B, while another one is
based on strong magnetic fields seen in high red shift galaxies. Seed fields,
whose strength is of order 10^{-20} gauss, easily sprung up in the era
preceding galaxy formation. Several mechanisms are proposed to amplify these
seed fields to microgauss strengths. The standard mechanism is the Alpha-Omega
dynamo theory. It has a major difficulty that makes unlikely to provide the
sole origin. The difficulty is rooted in the fact that the total flux is
constant. This implies that flux must be removed from the galactic discs. This
requires that the field and flux be separated, for otherwise interstellar mass
must be removed from the deep galactic gravitational and then their strength
increased by the alpha omega theory.Comment: 90 pages and 6 figures; accepted for publication in Reports of
Progress in Physics as an invited revie
The Interstellar Environment of our Galaxy
We review the current knowledge and understanding of the interstellar medium
of our galaxy. We first present each of the three basic constituents - ordinary
matter, cosmic rays, and magnetic fields - of the interstellar medium, laying
emphasis on their physical and chemical properties inferred from a broad range
of observations. We then position the different interstellar constituents, both
with respect to each other and with respect to stars, within the general
galactic ecosystem.Comment: 39 pages, 12 figures (including 3 figures in 2 parts
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