Disease prevention versus data privacy : using landcover maps to inform spatial epidemic models

The availability of epidemiological data in the early stages of an outbreak of an infectious disease is vital for modelers to make accurate predictions regarding the likely spread of disease and preferred intervention strategies. However, in some countries, the necessary demographic data are only available at an aggregate scale. We investigated the ability of models of livestock infectious diseases to predict epidemic spread and obtain optimal control policies in the event of imperfect, aggregated data. Taking a geographic information approach, we used land cover data to predict UK farm locations and investigated the influence of using these synthetic location data sets upon epidemiological predictions in the event of an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease. When broadly classified land cover data were used to create synthetic farm locations, model predictions deviated significantly from those simulated on true data. However, when more resolved subclass land use data were used, moderate to highly accurate predictions of epidemic size, duration and optimal vaccination and ring culling strategies were obtained. This suggests that a geographic information approach may be useful where individual farm-level data are not available, to allow predictive analyses to be carried out regarding the likely spread of disease. This method can also be used for contingency planning in collaboration with policy makers to determine preferred control strategies in the event of a future outbreak of infectious disease in livestock

Multiple rearrangements in cryptic species of electric knifefish, Gymnotus carapo (Gymnotidae, Gymnotiformes) revealed by chromosome painting.

BACKGROUND: Gymnotus (Gymnotidae, Gymnotiformes) is the Neotropical electric fish genus with the largest geographic distribution and the largest number of species, 33 of which have been validated. The diploid number varies from 2n = 39-40 to 2n = 54. Recently we studied the karyotype of morphologically indistinguishable samples from five populations of G. carapo sensu stricto from the Eastern Amazon of Brazil. We found two cytotypes, 2n = 42 (30 M/SM + 12 ST/A) and 2n = 40 (34 M/SM + 6 ST/A) and we concluded that the differences between the two cryptic species are due to pericentric inversions and one tandem fusion. RESULTS: In this study we use for the first time, whole chromosome probes prepared by FACS of the Gymnotus carapo sensu strictu species, cytotype with 2n = 42. Using two color hybridizations we were able to distinguish pairs 1, 2, 3, 7, 9, 14, 16, 18, 19, 20 and 21. It was not possible to separate by FACS and distinguish each of the following chromosome pairs even with dual color FISH: {4,8}; {10,11}; {5,6,17}; {12,13,15}. The FISH probes were then used in chromosome painting experiments on metaphases of the 2n = 40 cytotype. While some chromosomes show conserved synteny, others are rearranged in different chromosomes. Eight syntenic associations were found. CONCLUSIONS: These results show that the karyotype differences between these cryptic species are greater than assumed by classical cytogenetics. These data reinforce the previous supposition that these two cytotypes are different species, despite the absence of morphological differences. Additionally, the homology of repetitive DNA between the two provides evidence of recent speciation.RIGHTS : This article is licensed under the BioMed Central licence at http://www.biomedcentral.com/about/license which is similar to the 'Creative Commons Attribution Licence'. In brief you may : copy, distribute, and display the work; make derivative works; or make commercial use of the work - under the following conditions: the original author must be given credit; for any reuse or distribution, it must be made clear to others what the license terms of this work are

Cluster randomized test-negative design (CR-TND) trials: a novel and efficient method to assess the efficacy of community level dengue interventions

Cluster randomized trials are the gold standard for assessing efficacy of community-level interventions, such as vector control strategies against dengue. We describe a novel cluster randomized trial methodology with a test-negative design, which offers advantages over traditional approaches. It utilizes outcome-based sampling of patients presenting with a syndrome consistent with the disease of interest, who are subsequently classified as test-positive cases or test-negative controls on the basis of diagnostic testing. We use simulations of a cluster trial to demonstrate validity of efficacy estimates under the test-negative approach. This demonstrates that, provided study arms are balanced for both test-negative and test-positive illness at baseline and that other test-negative design assumptions are met, the efficacy estimates closely match true efficacy. We also briefly discuss analytical considerations for an odds ratio-based effect estimate arising from clustered data, and outline potential approaches to analysis. We conclude that application of the test-negative design to certain cluster randomized trials could increase their efficiency and ease of implementation

Probabilistic Clustering of Time-Evolving Distance Data

We present a novel probabilistic clustering model for objects that are represented via pairwise distances and observed at different time points. The proposed method utilizes the information given by adjacent time points to find the underlying cluster structure and obtain a smooth cluster evolution. This approach allows the number of objects and clusters to differ at every time point, and no identification on the identities of the objects is needed. Further, the model does not require the number of clusters being specified in advance -- they are instead determined automatically using a Dirichlet process prior. We validate our model on synthetic data showing that the proposed method is more accurate than state-of-the-art clustering methods. Finally, we use our dynamic clustering model to analyze and illustrate the evolution of brain cancer patients over time

The impact of the demographic transition on dengue in Thailand: Insights from a statistical analysis and mathematical modeling

Background: An increase in the average age of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) cases has been reported in Thailand. The cause of this increase is not known. Possible explanations include a reduction in transmission due to declining mosquito populations, declining contact between human and mosquito, and changes in reporting. We propose that a demographic shift toward lower birth and death rates has reduced dengue transmission and lengthened the interval between large epidemics. Methods and Findings: Using data from each of the 72 provinces of Thailand, we looked for associations between force of infection (a measure of hazard, defined as the rate per capita at which susceptible individuals become infected) and demographic and climactic variables. We estimated the force of infection from the age distribution of cases from 1985 to 2005. We find that the force of infection has declined by 2% each year since a peak in the late 1970s and early 1980s. Contrary to recent findings suggesting that the incidence of DHF has increased in Thailand, we find a small but statistically significant decline in DHF incidence since 1985 in a majority of provinces. The strongest predictor of the change in force of infection and the mean force of infection is the median age of the population. Using mathematical simulations of dengue transmission we show that a reduced birth rate and a shift in the population's age structure can explain the shift in the age distribution of cases, reduction of the force of infection, and increase in the periodicity of multiannual oscillations of DHF incidence in the absence of other changes. Conclusions: Lower birth and death rates decrease the flow of susceptible individuals into the population and increase the longevity of immune individuals. The increase in the proportion of the population that is immune increases the likelihood that an infectious mosquito will feed on an immune individual, reducing the force of infection. Though the force of infection has decreased by half, we find that the critical vaccination fraction has not changed significantly, declining from an average of 85% to 80%. Clinical guidelines should consider the impact of continued increases in the age of dengue cases in Thailand. Countries in the region lagging behind Thailand in the demographic transition may experience the same increase as their population ages. The impact of demographic changes on the force of infection has been hypothesized for other diseases, but, to our knowledge, this is the first observation of this phenomenon

Resolving Dilemmas Through Bodywork

Pamela Ellen Ferguson and Debra Persinger, co-authors and co-editors of Sand to Sky—Conversations with Teachers of Asian Medicine (Bloomington, IN: iUniverse; 2008), interview Marianne Steele in Germany on her shiatsu and massage therapy work in various forms of trauma and posttraumatic stress disorder. The interview was conducted in a series of e-mail exchanges and telephone calls during late 2009 and early 2010 and is intended for a future German edition of Sand to Sky

Answer changing in multiple choice assessment change that answer when in doubt – and spread the word!

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Several studies during the last decades have shown that answer changing in multiple choice examinations is generally beneficial for examinees. In spite of this the common misbelief still prevails that answer changing in multiple choice examinations results in an increased number of wrong answers rather than an improved score. One suggested consequence of newer studies is that examinees should be informed about this misbelief in the hope that this prejudice might be eradicated. This study aims to confirm data from previous studies about the benefits of answer changing as well as pursue the question of whether students informed about the said advantageous effects of answer changing would indeed follow this advice and change significantly more answers. Furthermore a look is cast on how the overall examination performance and mean point increase of these students is affected.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The answer sheets to the end of term exams of 79 3^rdyear medical students at the University of Munich were analysed to confirm the benefits of answer changing. Students taking the test were randomized into two groups. Prior to taking the test 41 students were informed about the benefits of changing answers after careful reconsideration while 38 students did not receive such information. Both groups were instructed to mark all answer changes made during the test.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Answer changes were predominantly from wrong to right in full accordance with existing literature resources. It was shown that students who had been informed about the benefits of answer changing when in doubt changed answers significantly more often than students who had not been informed. Though students instructed on the benefits of changing answers scored higher in their exams than those not instructed, the difference in point increase was not significant.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Students should be informed about the benefits of changing initial answers to multiple choice questions once when in reasonable doubt about these answers. Furthermore, reconsidering answers should be encouraged as students will heed the advice and change more answers than students not so instructed.</p

Genomic hotspots for adaptation: the population genetics of Müllerian mimicry in Heliconius erato

This is the final version of the article. Available from the publisher via the DOI in this record.Wing pattern evolution in Heliconius butterflies provides some of the most striking examples of adaptation by natural selection. The genes controlling pattern variation are classic examples of Mendelian loci of large effect, where allelic variation causes large and discrete phenotypic changes and is responsible for both convergent and highly divergent wing pattern evolution across the genus. We characterize nucleotide variation, genotype-by-phenotype associations, linkage disequilibrium (LD), and candidate gene expression patterns across two unlinked genomic intervals that control yellow and red wing pattern variation among mimetic forms of Heliconius erato. Despite very strong natural selection on color pattern, we see neither a strong reduction in genetic diversity nor evidence for extended LD across either patterning interval. This observation highlights the extent that recombination can erase the signature of selection in natural populations and is consistent with the hypothesis that either the adaptive radiation or the alleles controlling it are quite old. However, across both patterning intervals we identified SNPs clustered in several coding regions that were strongly associated with color pattern phenotype. Interestingly, coding regions with associated SNPs were widely separated, suggesting that color pattern alleles may be composed of multiple functional sites, conforming to previous descriptions of these loci as "supergenes." Examination of gene expression levels of genes flanking these regions in both H. erato and its co-mimic, H. melpomene, implicate a gene with high sequence similarity to a kinesin as playing a key role in modulating pattern and provides convincing evidence for parallel changes in gene regulation across co-mimetic lineages. The complex genetic architecture at these color pattern loci stands in marked contrast to the single casual mutations often identified in genetic studies of adaptation, but may be more indicative of the type of genetic changes responsible for much of the adaptive variation found in natural populations.Funding: Funding for this study was provided by National Science Foundation grants to WOM (DEB-0715096 and IBN-0344705) and BAC (DEB-0513424). Funding for work on H. melpomene came from a BBSRC grant to CDJ and RHf-C (011845). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript

Site-specific perturbations of alpha-synuclein fibril structure by the Parkinson's disease associated mutations A53T and E46K.

PMCID: PMC3591419This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.Parkinson's disease (PD) is pathologically characterized by the presence of Lewy bodies (LBs) in dopaminergic neurons of the substantia nigra. These intracellular inclusions are largely composed of misfolded α-synuclein (AS), a neuronal protein that is abundant in the vertebrate brain. Point mutations in AS are associated with rare, early-onset forms of PD, although aggregation of the wild-type (WT) protein is observed in the more common sporadic forms of the disease. Here, we employed multidimensional solid-state NMR experiments to assess A53T and E46K mutant fibrils, in comparison to our recent description of WT AS fibrils. We made de novo chemical shift assignments for the mutants, and used these chemical shifts to empirically determine secondary structures. We observe significant perturbations in secondary structure throughout the fibril core for the E46K fibril, while the A53T fibril exhibits more localized perturbations near the mutation site. Overall, these results demonstrate that the secondary structure of A53T has some small differences from the WT and the secondary structure of E46K has significant differences, which may alter the overall structural arrangement of the fibrils

The Cyprinodon variegatus genome reveals gene expression changes underlying differences in skull morphology among closely related species

Genes in durophage intersection set at 15 dpf. This is a comma separated table of the genes in the 15 dpf durophage intersection set. Given are edgeR results for each pairwise comparison. Columns indicating whether a gene is included in the intersection set at a threshold of 1.5 or 2 fold are provided. (CSV 13 kb