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Generalized Species Sampling Priors with Latent Beta reinforcements

Many popular Bayesian nonparametric priors can be characterized in terms of exchangeable species sampling sequences. However, in some applications, exchangeability may not be appropriate. We introduce a {novel and probabilistically coherent family of non-exchangeable species sampling sequences characterized by a tractable predictive probability function with weights driven by a sequence of independent Beta random variables. We compare their theoretical clustering properties with those of the Dirichlet Process and the two parameters Poisson-Dirichlet process. The proposed construction provides a complete characterization of the joint process, differently from existing work. We then propose the use of such process as prior distribution in a hierarchical Bayes modeling framework, and we describe a Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampler for posterior inference. We evaluate the performance of the prior and the robustness of the resulting inference in a simulation study, providing a comparison with popular Dirichlet Processes mixtures and Hidden Markov Models. Finally, we develop an application to the detection of chromosomal aberrations in breast cancer by leveraging array CGH data.Comment: For correspondence purposes, Edoardo M. Airoldi's email is [email protected]; Federico Bassetti's email is [email protected]; Michele Guindani's email is [email protected] ; Fabrizo Leisen's email is [email protected]. To appear in the Journal of the American Statistical Associatio

The ‘uberization of policing’? How police negotiate and operationalise predictive policing technology

Predictive policing generally refers to police work that utilises strategies, algorithmic technologies, and big data to generate near-future predictions about the people and places deemed likely to be involved in or experience crime. Claimed benefits of predictive policing centre on the technology’s ability to enable pre-emptive police work by automating police decisions. The goal is that officers will rely on computer software and smartphone applications to instruct them about where and who to police just as Uber drivers rely on similar technologies to instruct them about where to pick up passengers. Unfortunately, little is known about the experiences of the in-field users of predictive technologies. This article helps fill this gap by addressing the under researched area of how police officers engage with predictive technologies. As such, data is presented that outlines the findings of a qualitative study with UK police organisations involved in designing and trialing predictive policing software. Research findings show that many police officers have a detailed awareness of the limitations of predictive technologies, specifically those brought about by errors and biases in input data. This awareness has led many officers to develop a sceptical attitude towards predictive technologies and, in a few cases, these officers have expressed a reluctance to use predictive technologies. Based on these findings, this paper argues that claims about predictive software’s ability to neutralise the subjectivity of police work overlooks the ongoing struggles of the police officer to assert their agency and mediate the extent to which predictions will be trusted and utilised

Search for the glueball candidates f0(1500) and fJ(1710) in gamma gamma collisions

Data taken with the ALEPH detector at LEP1 have been used to search for gamma gamma production of the glueball candidates f0(1500) and fJ(1710) via their decay to pi+pi-. No signal is observed and upper limits to the product of gamma gamma width and pi+pi- branching ratio of the f0(1500) and the fJ(1710) have been measured to be Gamma_(gamma gamma -> f0(1500)). BR(f0(1500)->pi+pi-) < 0.31 keV and Gamma_(gamma gamma -> fJ(1710)). BR(fJ(1710)->pi+pi-) < 0.55 keV at 95% confidence level.Comment: 10 pages, 3 figure

Further Experimental Studies of Two-Body Radiative \Upsilon Decays

Continuing our studies of radiative Upsilon(1S) decays, we report on a search for Upsilon to gamma eta and Upsilon to gamma f_{J}(2220) in 61.3 pb^{-1} of e^{+}e^{-} data taken with the CLEO II detector at the Cornell Electron Storage Ring. For the gamma eta search the three decays of the eta meson to pi^{+}pi^{-}pi^{0}, pi^{0}pi^{0}pi^{0}, and gamma gamma were investigated. We found no candidate events in the two (3\pi)^{0} modes and no significant excess over expected backgrounds in the gamma gamma mode to set a limit on the branching fraction of B(Upsilon to gamma eta) < 2.1 x 10^{-5} at 90% C.L. The three charged two-body final states h h-bar (h = pi^{+}, K^{+}, p) were investigated for f_{J}(2220) production, with one, one, and two events found, respectively. Limits at 90% C.L. of B(\Upsilon to gamma f_{J}) x B(f_{J} to h h-bar) ~ 1.5 x 10^{-5} have been set for each of these modes. We compare our results to measurements of other radiative Upsilon decays, to measurements of radiative J/psi decays, and to theoretical predictions.Comment: 19 pages postscript, also available through http://w4.lns.cornell.edu/public/CLNS, submitted to Physical Review

Search for supersymmetry with a dominant R-parity violating LQDbar couplings in e+e- collisions at centre-of-mass energies of 130GeV to 172 GeV

A search for pair-production of supersymmetric particles under the assumption that R-parity is violated via a dominant LQDbar coupling has been performed using the data collected by ALEPH at centre-of-mass energies of 130-172 GeV. The observed candidate events in the data are in agreement with the Standard Model expectation. This result is translated into lower limits on the masses of charginos, neutralinos, sleptons, sneutrinos and squarks. For instance, for m_0=500 GeV/c^2 and tan(beta)=sqrt(2) charginos with masses smaller than 81 GeV/c^2 and neutralinos with masses smaller than 29 GeV/c^2 are excluded at the 95% confidence level for any generation structure of the LQDbar coupling.Comment: 32 pages, 30 figure