Solving the Woes of Statistical Seismology: The Community On-Line Resource for Statistical Seismicity Analysis (CORSSA)l

Solving the Woes of Statistical Seismology: The Community On-Line Resource for Statistical Seismicity Analysis (CORSSA

Properties of Foreshocks and Aftershocks of the Non-Conservative SOC Olami-Feder-Christensen Model: Triggered or Critical Earthquakes?

Following Hergarten and Neugebauer [2002] who discovered aftershock and foreshock sequences in the Olami-Feder-Christensen (OFC) discrete block-spring earthquake model, we investigate to what degree the simple toppling mechanism of this model is sufficient to account for the properties of earthquake clustering in time and space. Our main finding is that synthetic catalogs generated by the OFC model share practically all properties of real seismicity at a qualitative level, with however significant quantitative differences. We find that OFC catalogs can be in large part described by the concept of triggered seismicity but the properties of foreshocks depend on the mainshock magnitude, in qualitative agreement with the critical earthquake model and in disagreement with simple models of triggered seismicity such as the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model [Ogata, 1988]. Many other features of OFC catalogs can be reproduced with the ETAS model with a weaker clustering than real seismicity, i.e. for a very small average number of triggered earthquakes of first generation per mother-earthquake.Comment: revtex, 19 pages, 8 eps figure

Is the northern high-latitude land-based CO2 sink weakening?

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2011. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Global Biogeochemical Cycles 25 (2011): GB3018, doi:10.1029/2010GB003813.Studies indicate that, historically, terrestrial ecosystems of the northern high-latitude region may have been responsible for up to 60% of the global net land-based sink for atmospheric CO2. However, these regions have recently experienced remarkable modification of the major driving forces of the carbon cycle, including surface air temperature warming that is significantly greater than the global average and associated increases in the frequency and severity of disturbances. Whether Arctic tundra and boreal forest ecosystems will continue to sequester atmospheric CO2 in the face of these dramatic changes is unknown. Here we show the results of model simulations that estimate a 41 Tg C yr−1 sink in the boreal land regions from 1997 to 2006, which represents a 73% reduction in the strength of the sink estimated for previous decades in the late 20th century. Our results suggest that CO2 uptake by the region in previous decades may not be as strong as previously estimated. The recent decline in sink strength is the combined result of (1) weakening sinks due to warming-induced increases in soil organic matter decomposition and (2) strengthening sources from pyrogenic CO2 emissions as a result of the substantial area of boreal forest burned in wildfires across the region in recent years. Such changes create positive feedbacks to the climate system that accelerate global warming, putting further pressure on emission reductions to achieve atmospheric stabilization targets.This study was supported through grants provided as part of the Arctic System Science Program (NSF OPP‐ 0531047), the North American Carbon Program (NASA NNG05GD25G), and the Bonanza Creek Long‐Term Ecological Program (funded jointly by NSF grant DEB‐0423442 and USDA Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station grant PNW01‐JV11261952‐231)

Limitations of rupture forecasting exposed by instantaneously triggered earthquake doublet

Earthquake hazard assessments and rupture forecasts are based on the potential length of seismic rupture and whether or not slip is arrested at fault segment boundaries. Such forecasts do not generally consider that one earthquake can trigger a second large event, near-instantaneously, at distances greater than a few kilometers. Here we present a geodetic and seismological analysis of a magnitude 7.1 intra-continental earthquake that occurred in Pakistan in 1997. We find that the earthquake, rather than a single event as hitherto assumed, was in fact an earthquake doublet: initial rupture on a shallow, blind 2 reverse fault was followed just 19 seconds later by a second rupture on a separate reverse fault 50 km away. Slip on the second fault increased the total seismic moment by half, and doubled both the combined event duration and the area of maximum ground shaking. We infer that static Coulomb stresses at the initiation location of the second earthquake were probably reduced as a result of the first. Instead, we suggest that a dynamic triggering mechanism is likely, although the responsible seismic wave phase is unclear. Our results expose a flaw in earthquake rupture forecasts that disregard cascading, multiple-fault ruptures of this type

Future effects of ozone on carbon sequestration and climate change policy using a global biogeochemical model

Author Posting. © The Authors, 2004. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Springer for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Climatic Change 73 (2005): 345-373, doi:10.1007/s10584-005-6776-4.Exposure of plants to ozone inhibits photosynthesis and therefore reduces vegetation production and carbon sequestration. The reduced carbon storage would then require further reductions in fossil fuel emissions to meet a given CO2 concentration target, thereby increasing the cost of meeting the target. Simulations with the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) for the historical period (1860-1995) show the largest damages occur in the Southeast and Midwestern regions of the United States, eastern Europe, and eastern China. The largest reductions in carbon storage for the period 1950-1995, 41%, occur in eastern Europe. Scenarios for the 21st century developed with the MIT Integrated Global Systems Model (IGSM) lead to even greater negative effects on carbon storage in the future. In some regions, current land carbon sinks become carbon sources, and this change leads to carbon sequestration decreases of up to 0.4 Pg C yr-1 due to damage in some regional ozone hot spots. With a climate policy, failing to consider the effects of ozone damage on carbon sequestration would raise the global costs over the next century of stabilizing atmospheric concentrations of CO2 equivalents at 550 ppm by 6 to 21%. Because stabilization at 550 ppm will reduce emission of other gases that cause ozone, these additional benefits are estimated to be between 5 and 25% of the cost of the climate policy. Tropospheric ozone effects on terrestrial ecosystems thus produce a surprisingly large feedback in estimating climate policy costs that, heretofore, has not been included in cost estimates.This study was funded by the Biocomplexity Program of the U.S. National Science Foundation (ATM-0120468), the Methods and Models for Integrated Assessment Program of the U.S. National Science Foundation (DEB-9711626) and the Earth Observing System Program of the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NAG5-10135). The IGSM has been developed as part of the Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change with the support of a government-industry partnership including in addition to the above the US Department of Energy (901214-HAR; DE-FG02-94ER61937; DE-FG0293ER61713), the US Environmental Protection Agency (X-827703-01-0; XA-83042801-0), the National Aeronautics and Atmospheric Administration (NA16GP2290) and a group of corporate sponsors from the United States, Japan, United Kingdom, Germany, France, and Norway

``Agro-meteorological indices and climate model uncertainty over the UK''

Five stakeholder-relevant indices of agro-meteorological change were analysed for the UK, over past (1961--1990) and future (2061--2090) periods. Accumulated Frosts, Dry Days, Growing Season Length, Plant Heat Stress and Start of Field Operations were calculated from the E-Obs (European Observational) and HadRM3 (Hadley Regional Climate Model) PPE (perturbed physics ensemble) data sets. Indices were compared directly and examined for current and future uncertainty. Biases are quantified in terms of ensemble member climate sensitivity and regional aggregation. Maps of spatial change then provide an appropriate metric for end-users both in terms of their requirements and statistical robustness. A future UK is described with fewer frosts, fewer years with a large number of frosts, an earlier start to field operations (e.g., tillage), fewer occurrences of sporadic rainfall, more instances of high temperatures (in both the mean and upper range), and a much longer growing season

Soil respiration in northern forests exposed to elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide and ozone

The aspen free-air CO 2 and O 3 enrichment (FACTS II–FACE) study in Rhinelander, Wisconsin, USA, is designed to understand the mechanisms by which young northern deciduous forest ecosystems respond to elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and elevated tropospheric ozone (O 3 ) in a replicated, factorial, field experiment. Soil respiration is the second largest flux of carbon (C) in these ecosystems, and the objective of this study was to understand how soil respiration responded to the experimental treatments as these fast-growing stands of pure aspen and birch + aspen approached maximum leaf area. Rates of soil respiration were typically lowest in the elevated O 3 treatment. Elevated CO 2 significantly stimulated soil respiration (8–26%) compared to the control treatment in both community types over all three growing seasons. In years 6–7 of the experiment, the greatest rates of soil respiration occurred in the interaction treatment (CO 2  + O 3 ), and rates of soil respiration were 15–25% greater in this treatment than in the elevated CO 2 treatment, depending on year and community type. Two of the treatments, elevated CO 2 and elevated CO 2  + O 3 , were fumigated with 13 C-depleted CO 2 , and in these two treatments we used standard isotope mixing models to understand the proportions of new and old C in soil respiration. During the peak of the growing season, C fixed since the initiation of the experiment in 1998 (new C) accounted for 60–80% of total soil respiration. The isotope measurements independently confirmed that more new C was respired from the interaction treatment compared to the elevated CO 2 treatment. A period of low soil moisture late in the 2003 growing season resulted in soil respiration with an isotopic signature 4–6‰ enriched in 13 C compared to sample dates when the percentage soil moisture was higher. In 2004, an extended period of low soil moisture during August and early September, punctuated by a significant rainfall event, resulted in soil respiration that was temporarily 4–6‰ more depleted in 13 C. Up to 50% of the Earth’s forests will see elevated concentrations of both CO 2 and O 3 in the coming decades and these interacting atmospheric trace gases stimulated soil respiration in this study.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/45867/1/442_2006_Article_381.pd