Ökonomische Analyse europäischer Bankenregulierung: Verbriefung und Interbankenmarkt im Fokus

Die Bankenneuregulierung der Europäische Kommission sieht eine Beschränkung der Kreditvergabe im Interbankenmarkt auf 25 % des Eigenkapitals sowie einen Selbsteinbehalt des Originators in Höhe von 5 % am gesamten zu verbriefenden Forderungsportfolio vor. Eine starre Regulierung führt aber nicht zwingend zu einer dauerhaften Krisenprävention, wie die vorliegende Arbeit modelltheoretisch belegt. Eine starre Kreditvergabebeschränkung erreicht zwar eine Mindestdiversifikation und Eigenkapitalaufstockung im Bankensektor, wodurch das systemische Risiko gesenkt wird. Allerdings geht dies mit steigenden Transaktionskosten einher. Anhand eines Modells von Fender und Mitchell werden die Auswirkungen auf die Screening-Anstrengungen bei Verbriefungen mit komplettem Portfolioselbsteinbehalt, Einbehalt der Equity Tranche und Einbehalt eines vertikalen Anteils durch den Originator untersucht. Aus dem Modell wird ersichtlich, dass ein vertikaler Einbehalt kleiner 100 % des Forderungspools, wie er von der Europäischen Kommission vorgesehen ist, in keiner Situation zu einem optimalen Screening-Einsatz führt, sondern sogar teilweise eine Verschlechterung im Vergleich zum Einbehalt der Equity Tranche darstellt. Eine pauschale Regulierung ist deshalb abzulehnen und eine qualitative, dynamische Regulierung, die mehr Transparenz schafft, zu befürworten. -- The new regulation for banks by the European Commission contains a restriction to 25 % of the equity for credit allocation on the interbank market and an enduring participation of the originator in the whole receivables portfolio of 5 %. But an inflexible regulation does not permanently prevent the market from further financial crisis, which is theoretically analysed in the presented paper. Indeed an inflexible restriction of the equity for credit allocation achieves a minimum diversification and an equity increase on the banking sector, which reduces the systemic risk. Admittedly, this can only occur by acceptance of increasing transaction costs. By applying a model from Fender and Mitchell the impact of the screening efforts for securitizations with complete retention of the portfolio, the retention of the equity tranche and the retention of the vertical fraction by the originator is analysed. The model shows that a vertical retention smaller than 100 % of the pool of receivables, as proposed by the European Commission, does not lead to an optimal level of screening in any situation and might even cause a worsening in comparison to the retention of the equity tranche. Considering the complexity of the financial system, a sweeping regulation must be rejected and a qualitative, dynamic regulation that establishes a higher level of transparency is recommended.Bankenregulierung,Verbriefung,Selbstbehalt,Interbankenmarkt

Routine frailty assessment predicts postoperative complications in elderly patients across surgical disciplines – a retrospective observational study

BACKGROUND: Frailty is a frequent and underdiagnosed functional syndrome involving reduced physiological reserves and an increased vulnerability against stressors, with severe individual and socioeconomic consequences. A routine frailty assessment was implemented at our preoperative anaesthesia clinic to identify patients at risk. OBJECTIVE: This study examines the relationship between frailty status and the incidence of in-hospital postoperative complications in elderly surgical patients across several surgical disciplines. DESIGN: Retrospective observational analysis. SETTING: Single center, major tertiary care university hospital. Data collection took place between June 2016 and March 2017. PATIENTS: Patients 65 years old or older were evaluated for frailty using Fried's 5-point frailty assessment prior to elective non-cardiac surgery. Patients were classified into non-frail (0 criteria, reference group), pre-frail (1-2 positive criteria) and frail (3-5 positive criteria) groups. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The incidence of postoperative complications was assessed until discharge from the hospital, using the roster from the National VA Surgical Quality Improvement Program. Propensity score matching and logistic regression analysis were performed. RESULTS: From 1186 elderly patients, 46.9% were classified as pre-frail (n = 556), and 11.4% as frail (n = 135). The rate of complications were significantly higher in the pre-frail (34.7%) and frail groups (47.4%), as compared to the non-frail group (27.5%). Similarly, length of stay (non-frail: 5.0 [3.0;7.0], pre-frail: 7.0 [3.0;9.0], frail 8.0 [4.5;12.0]; p < 0.001) and discharges to care facilities (non-frail:1.6%, pre-frail: 7.4%, frail: 17.8%); p < 0.001) were significantly associated with frailty status. After propensity score matching and logistic regression analysis, the risk for developing postoperative complications was approximately two-fold for pre-frail (OR 1.78; 95% CI 1.04-3.05) and frail (OR 2.08; 95% CI 1.21-3.60) patients. CONCLUSIONS: The preoperative frailty assessment of elderly patients identified pre-frail and frail subgroups to have the highest rate of postoperative complications, regardless of age, surgical discipline, and surgical risk. Significantly increased length of hospitalisation and discharges to care facilities were also observed. Implementation of routine frailty assessments appear to be an effective tool in identifying patients with increased risk. Now future studies are needed to investigate whether patients benefit from optimization of patient counselling, process planning, and risk reduction protocols based on the application of risk stratification

Factors associated with post-traumatic stress disorder and depression amongst internally displaced persons in northern Uganda

BACKGROUND: The 20 year war in northern Uganda between the Lord's Resistance Army and the Ugandan government has resulted in the displacement of up to 2 million people within Uganda. The purpose of the study was to measure rates of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and depression amongst these internally displaced persons (IDPs), and investigate associated demographic and trauma exposure risk factors. METHODS: A cross-sectional multi-staged, random cluster survey with 1210 adult IDPs was conducted in November 2006 in Gulu and Amuru districts of northern Uganda. Levels of exposure to traumatic events and PTSD were measured using the Harvard Trauma Questionnaire (original version), and levels of depression were measured using the Hopkins Symptom Checklist-25. Multivariate logistic regression was used to analyse the association of demographic and trauma exposure variables on the outcomes of PTSD and depression. RESULTS: Over half (54%) of the respondents met symptom criteria for PTSD, and over two thirds (67%) of respondents met symptom criteria for depression. Over half (58%) of respondents had experienced 8 or more of the 16 trauma events covered in the questionnaire. Factors strongly linked with PTSD and depression included gender, marital status, distance of displacement, experiencing ill health without medical care, experiencing rape or sexual abuse, experiencing lack of food or water, and experiencing higher rates of trauma exposure. CONCLUSION: This study provides evidence of exposure to traumatic events and deprivation of essential goods and services suffered by IDPs, and the resultant effect this has upon their mental health. Protection and social and psychological assistance are urgently required to help IDPs in northern Uganda re-build their lives

Demonstration of reduced neoclassical energy transport in Wendelstein 7-X

Research on magnetic confinement of high-temperature plasmas has the ultimate goal of harnessing nuclear fusion for the production of electricity. Although the tokamak1 is the leading toroidal magnetic-confinement concept, it is not without shortcomings and the fusion community has therefore also pursued alternative concepts such as the stellarator. Unlike axisymmetric tokamaks, stellarators possess a three-dimensional (3D) magnetic field geometry. The availability of this additional dimension opens up an extensive configuration space for computational optimization of both the field geometry itself and the current-carrying coils that produce it. Such an optimization was undertaken in designing Wendelstein 7-X (W7-X)2, a large helical-axis advanced stellarator (HELIAS), which began operation in 2015 at Greifswald, Germany. A major drawback of 3D magnetic field geometry, however, is that it introduces a strong temperature dependence into the stellarator’s non-turbulent ‘neoclassical’ energy transport. Indeed, such energy losses will become prohibitive in high-temperature reactor plasmas unless a strong reduction of the geometrical factor associated with this transport can be achieved; such a reduction was therefore a principal goal of the design of W7-X. In spite of the modest heating power currently available, W7-X has already been able to achieve high-temperature plasma conditions during its 2017 and 2018 experimental campaigns, producing record values of the fusion triple product for such stellarator plasmas3,4. The triple product of plasma density, ion temperature and energy confinement time is used in fusion research as a figure of merit, as it must attain a certain threshold value before net-energy-producing operation of a reactor becomes possible1,5. Here we demonstrate that such record values provide evidence for reduced neoclassical energy transport in W7-X, as the plasma profiles that produced these results could not have been obtained in stellarators lacking a comparably high level of neoclassical optimization

Greenhouse gas emission budgets and policies for zero-Carbon road transport in Europe

Following the Paris Agreement, virtually all countries worldwide have committed themselves to undertaking efforts to limit global warming to 1.5 \ub0C. Within the European Union (EU), the recent ‘Fit for 55’ policy package proposes ambitious greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation policies for all sectors as part of the EU\u27s contribution to limiting global warming. Yet, it is unclear whether the proposed policies are sufficient for the EU to limit global warming to 1.5 \ub0C and it remains an open policy problem how to translate global temperature targets into sector-specific emission budgets and further into sector-specific policies. Here, we derive GHG budgets for transport in EU27 and obtain GHG mitigation pathways for Europe consistent with 1.5 \ub0C global warming. We do not provide a comprehensive assessment of the ‘Fit for 55’ transport package but we discuss the main policies for road transport in light of the GHG emission budgets, their level of ambition, and suggest amendments to these policies as well as improvements to the ‘Fit for 55’ package. Our results suggest that parts of the ‘Fit for 55’ for transport are still not ambitious enough to align with a 1.5 \ub0C scenario. Key policy insights: A Paris-compatible residual carbon budget for EU transport is 10–12 Gt CO2. The budget implies net zero emissions for EU transport by 2044–2048 latest. We find the current ‘Fit for 55’ proposal for transport is not ambitious enough. A faster phase-out of cars and trucks with combustion engines is required and there is a need for ambitious standards for fast charging e-vehicles. CO2 pricing of transport is not a substitute but a complement to fleet targets

How do system-wide net-zero scenarios compare to sector model pathways for the EU? A novel approach based on benchmark indicators and index decomposition analyses

The use of scenarios and quantitative modelling to identify pathways for energy system transformations in line with the Paris targets is well established in the field of energy and climate policy. The resulting decarbonization pathways depend on both assumptions and the type of model used (e.g., integrated assessment models, energy system, macro-econometric or bottom-up sector models). The objective of this article is to analyze how energy demand sectors in system-wide net-zero scenarios for the EU compare to the results of sector-specific models. To this end, a novel approach referred to as “sectoral benchmarking” is developed and applied, combining the application of standard indicators such as energy intensity, electrification rate or carbon intensity with an index decomposition analysis. The combined approach allows visualizing how system-wide decarbonization pathways differ from the sector models' pathways by bringing the model output in a harmonized format for an efficient comparison. The analysis compares pathways from four different modelling tools: two European system models, one of which is an energy system model (EU TIMES) and the other a macro-econometric model (NEMESIS); as well as two sector-specific models, for transport (ALADIN) and for the industry and building sectors (FORECAST). We evaluate the system model's net-zero scenarios by comparing them to a corridor given by the sector models' current policy and net-zero emission scenarios. This corridor represents what the sector models deem as plausible from their bottom-up perspective within the boundaries of current policies and ambitions to reach net-zero.Our results show that the system model net-zero pathways differ substantially from the sectoral perspective in all sectors. In the industry and building sectors, both system models' decarbonization ambitions are within the sector corridor, but the employed mitigation levers differ. In the industry sectors, the sectoral model achieves substantial CO2 emission reductions with electrification, while the system models use more bioenergy (EU TIMES) or more energy efficiency (NEMESIS). In the building sector, both system models rely mostly on electrification, while the sector models relies on biomass and some district heat and electrification. In the transport sector, both system models' decarbonization ambition is substantially lower than the sector model's.The observed differences are caused by a variety of factors, which we evaluate in this article. One reason is the system models' lower ambition to decarbonize the end-use sectors due to their ability to compensate with negative emission technologies across sectors. In addition, employed mitigation levers differ due to the models' differing capabilities to consider technologies as well as differences in the allocation of bioenergy to sectors.Our findings can be used to determine how the different types of models can inform each other and to make the diverging decarbonization pathways more transparent to policy-makers and other relevant stakeholders

Outcomes in Critically Ill Patients Sedated with Intravenous Lormetazepam or Midazolam : A Retrospective Cohort Study

The benzodiazepine, midazolam, is one of the most frequently used sedatives in intensive care medicine, but it has an unfavorable pharmacokinetic profile when continuously applied. As a consequence, patients are frequently prolonged and more deeply sedated than intended. Due to its distinct pharmacological features, including a cytochrome P450-independent metabolization, intravenous lormetazepam might be clinically advantageous compared to midazolam. In this retrospective cohort study, we compared patients who received either intravenous lormetazepam or midazolam with respect to their survival and sedation characteristics. The cohort included 3314 mechanically ventilated, critically ill patients that received one of the two drugs in a tertiary medical center in Germany between 2006 and 2018. A Cox proportional hazards model with mortality as outcome and APACHE II, age, gender, and admission mode as covariates revealed a hazard ratio of 1.75 [95% CI 1.46–2.09; p < 0.001] for in-hospital mortality associated with the use of midazolam. After additionally adjusting for sedation intensity, the HR became 1.04 [95% CI 0.83–1.31; p = 0.97]. Thus, we concluded that excessive sedation occurs more frequently in critically ill patients treated with midazolam than in patients treated with lormetazepam. These findings require further investigation in prospective trials to assess if lormetazepam, due to its ability to maintain light sedation, might be favorable over other benzodiazepines for sedation in the ICU

Where is the EU headed given its current climate policy? A stakeholder-driven model inter-comparison

Recent calls to do climate policy research with, rather than for, stakeholders have been answered in non-modelling science. Notwithstanding progress in modelling literature, however, very little of the scenario space traces back to what stakeholders are ultimately concerned about. With a suite of eleven integrated assessment, energy system and sectoral models, we carry out a model inter-comparison for the EU, the scenario logic and research questions of which have been formulated based on stakeholders' concerns. The output of this process is a scenario framework exploring where the region is headed rather than how to achieve its goals, extrapolating its current policy efforts into the future. We find that Europe is currently on track to overperforming its pre-2020 40% target yet far from its newest ambition of 55% emissions cuts by 2030, as well as looking at a 1.0–2.35 GtCO2 emissions range in 2050. Aside from the importance of transport electrification, deployment levels of carbon capture and storage are found intertwined with deeper emissions cuts and with hydrogen diffusion, with most hydrogen produced post-2040 being blue. Finally, the multi-model exercise has highlighted benefits from deeper decarbonisation in terms of energy security and jobs, and moderate to high renewables-dominated investment needs