Modeling physical and chemical climate of the northeastern United States for a geographic information system

A model of physical and chemical climate was developed for New York and New England that can be used in a GIs for integration with ecosystem models. The variables included are monthly average maximum and minimum daily temperatures, precipitation, humidity, and solar radiation, as well as annual atmospheric deposition of sulfur and nitrogen. Equations generated from regional data bases were combined with a digital elevation model of the region to generate digital coverages of each variable

Predicting the effects of climate change on water yield and forest production in the northeastern United States

Rapid and simultaneous changes in temperature, precipitation and the atmospheric concentration of CO2 are predicted to occur over the next century. Simple, well-validated models of ecosystem function are required to predict the effects of these changes. This paper describes an improved version of a forest carbon and water balance model (PnET-II) and the application of the model to predict stand- and regional-level effects of changes in temperature, precipitation and atmospheric CO2 concentration. PnET-II is a simple, generalized, monthly time-step model of water and carbon balances (gross and net) driven by nitrogen availability as expressed through foliar N concentration. Improvements from the original model include a complete carbon balance and improvements in the prediction of canopy phenology, as well as in the computation of canopy structure and photosynthesis. The model was parameterized and run for 4 forest/site combinations and validated against available data for water yield, gross and net carbon exchange and biomass production. The validation exercise suggests that the determination of actual water availability to stands and the occurrence or non-occurrence of soil-based water stress are critical to accurate modeling of forest net primary production (NPP) and net ecosystem production (NEP). The model was then run for the entire NewEngland/New York (USA) region using a 1 km resolution geographic information system. Predicted long-term NEP ranged from -85 to +275 g C m-2 yr-1 for the 4 forest/site combinations, and from -150 to 350 g C m-2 yr-1 for the region, with a regional average of 76 g C m-2 yr-1. A combination of increased temperature (+6*C), decreased precipitation (-15%) and increased water use efficiency (2x, due to doubling of CO2) resulted generally in increases in NPP and decreases in water yield over the region

Reducing the environmental impact of surgery on a global scale: systematic review and co-prioritization with healthcare workers in 132 countries

Abstract Background Healthcare cannot achieve net-zero carbon without addressing operating theatres. The aim of this study was to prioritize feasible interventions to reduce the environmental impact of operating theatres. Methods This study adopted a four-phase Delphi consensus co-prioritization methodology. In phase 1, a systematic review of published interventions and global consultation of perioperative healthcare professionals were used to longlist interventions. In phase 2, iterative thematic analysis consolidated comparable interventions into a shortlist. In phase 3, the shortlist was co-prioritized based on patient and clinician views on acceptability, feasibility, and safety. In phase 4, ranked lists of interventions were presented by their relevance to high-income countries and low–middle-income countries. Results In phase 1, 43 interventions were identified, which had low uptake in practice according to 3042 professionals globally. In phase 2, a shortlist of 15 intervention domains was generated. In phase 3, interventions were deemed acceptable for more than 90 per cent of patients except for reducing general anaesthesia (84 per cent) and re-sterilization of ‘single-use’ consumables (86 per cent). In phase 4, the top three shortlisted interventions for high-income countries were: introducing recycling; reducing use of anaesthetic gases; and appropriate clinical waste processing. In phase 4, the top three shortlisted interventions for low–middle-income countries were: introducing reusable surgical devices; reducing use of consumables; and reducing the use of general anaesthesia. Conclusion This is a step toward environmentally sustainable operating environments with actionable interventions applicable to both high– and low–middle–income countries

Estimating regional forest productivity and water yield using an ecosystem model linked to a GIS

We used the PnET-II model of forest carbon and water balances to estimate regional forest productivity and runoff for the northeastern United States. The model was run at 30 arc sec resolution (approximately 1 km) in conjunction with a Geographic Information System that contained monthly climate data and a satellite-derived land cover map. Predicted net primary production (NPP) ranged from 700 to 1450 g m2 yr1 with a regional mean of 1084 g m2 yr1. Validation at a number of locations within the region showed close agreement between predicted and observed values. Disagreement at two sites was proportional to differences between measured foliar N concentrations and values used in the model. Predicted runoff ranged from 24 to 150 cm yr1with a regional mean of 63 cm yr1. Predictions agreed well with observed values from U.S. Geologic Survey watersheds across the region although there was a slight bias towards overprediction at high elevations and underprediction at lower elevations. Spatial patterns in NPP followed patterns of precipitation and growing degree days, depending on the degree of predicted water versus energy limitation within each forest type. Randomized sensitivity analyses indicated that NPP within hardwood and pine forests was limited by variables controlling water availability (precipitation and soil water holding capacity) to a greater extent than foliar nitrogen, suggesting greater limitations by water than nitrogen for these forest types. In contrast, spruce-fir NPP was not sensitive to water availability and was highly sensitivity to foliar N, indicating greater limitation by available nitrogen. Although more work is needed to fully understand the relative importance of water versus nitrogen limitation in northeastern forests, these results suggests that spatial patterns of NPP for hardwoods and pines can be largely captured using currently available data sets, while substantial uncertainties exist for spruce-fir

Extrapolating plant water flow resistances and capacitances to regional scales

The principal objective for models of water flow through the soil-plant-atmosphere system is the accurate prediction of leaf water potential (Ψleaf) and water uptake by roots, for a given soil water potential (Ψsoil) and transpiration rate. Steady-state models of water flow through plants, which include only resistances, are sufficient to predict total daily water uptake by roots. Non-steady-state models, which use both water flow resistances and capacitances, are necessary for the prediction of Ψleaf and instantaneous rate of water uptake for diurnal variations of transpiration rate. Potential difference resistances and capacitances are defined for water flow (volume/time) and are best used for individual plant models; resistivities and capacitivities are based on volume flux density ((volume/land surface area)/time) and should be used for plant stands. Prediction of Ψleaf may not be necessary for general circulation models and global climate models (GCM) because stomatal conductance (necessary for the prediction of transpiration rate) is probably controlled by the vapor pressure difference at the leaf surface and Ψsoil and not by Ψleaf. If liquid water flow models through plants are necessary for GCM in order to account for diurnal variations of land-surface energy partitioning, then perhaps an ecosystem time constant for water flow through vegetation of each biome type should be used