Are GRACE-era Terrestrial Water Trends Driven by Anthropogenic Climate Change?

To provide context for observed trends in terrestrial water storage (TWS) during GRACE (2003–2014), trends and variability in the CESM1-CAM5 Large Ensemble (LE) are examined. Motivated in part by the anomalous nature of climate variability during GRACE, the characteristics of both forced change and internal modes are quantified and their influences on observations are estimated. Trends during the GRACE era in the LE are dominated by internal variability rather than by the forced response, with TWS anomalies in much of the Americas, eastern Australia, Africa, and southwestern Eurasia largely attributable to the negative phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). While similarities between observed trends and the model-inferred forced response also exist, it is inappropriate to attribute such trends mainly to anthropogenic forcing. For several key river basins, trends in the mean state and interannual variability and the time at which the forced response exceeds background variability are also estimated while aspects of global mean TWS, including changes in its annual amplitude and decadal trends, are quantified. The findings highlight the challenge of detecting anthropogenic climate change in temporally finite satellite datasets and underscore the benefit of utilizing models in the interpretation of the observed record

A Cost-Efficient Method for Detecting Unexploded 122mm 9M22U Rockets Using Remote Sensing

Unexploded ordnances (UXOs) are any subsurface weapon that pose the threat of detonation. UXOs pose one of the greatest humanitarian concerns of today, as they contaminate land in countries across the globe and lead to thousands of deaths each year. Our research focuses specifically on the BM-21 Grad, a Soviet multiple rocket launcher that fires 122mm rockets with a failure rate of over 4%. This means that the rockets often do not detonate immediately as intended, but become UXOs lodged underground. We studied the use of magnetometry, specifically the UMT MFAM MagPike remote sensor to detect these rockets. We processed data collected from Chernihiv, Ukraine to conclude that BM-21 Grad 122mm rockets do give off magnetic fields that are detectable using magnetometry, and distance above ground level plays a key role in data clarity

Inspiring the Next Generation of Humanitarian Mine Action Researchers

Humanitarian mine action (HMA) is a critically under-researched field when compared to other hazards fields of similar societal impact. A potential solution to this problem is early exposure to and engagement in the HMA field in undergraduate education. Early undergraduate education emphasizing technical and social aspects of HMA can help protect lives by building a robust pipeline of passionate researchers who will find new solutions to the global explosive ordnance (EO) crisis. Early engagement of the next generation of HMA researchers and policy makers can occur through various classroom experiences, undergraduate research projects, and public outreach events. These include but are not limited to course-based undergraduate research experiences (CUREs); presenting research results at local, national, and international conferences; dissemination in edited and peer-reviewed publications; local community events; and through social media outreach. Early engagement, active guidance, and mentorship of such students by mid-career and experienced HMA scholars and practitioners could dramatically reduce the learning curve associated with entry into the HMA sector and allow for more fruitful long-term collaboration between academic institutions, private industry, and leading nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) operating across different facets of HMA

Msh2 Blocks an Alternative Mechanism for Non-Homologous Tail Removal during Single-Strand Annealing in Saccharomyces cerevisiae

Chromosomal translocations are frequently observed in cells exposed to agents that cause DNA double-strand breaks (DSBs), such as ionizing radiation and chemotherapeutic drugs, and are often associated with tumors in mammals. Recently, translocation formation in the budding yeast, Saccharomyces cerevisiae, has been found to occur at high frequencies following the creation of multiple DSBs adjacent to repetitive sequences on non-homologous chromosomes. The genetic control of translocation formation and the chromosome complements of the clones that contain translocations suggest that translocation formation occurs by single-strand annealing (SSA). Among the factors important for translocation formation by SSA is the central mismatch repair (MMR) and homologous recombination (HR) factor, Msh2. Here we describe the effects of several msh2 missense mutations on translocation formation that suggest that Msh2 has separable functions in stabilizing annealed single strands, and removing non-homologous sequences from their ends. Additionally, interactions between the msh2 alleles and a null allele of RAD1, which encodes a subunit of a nuclease critical for the removal of non-homologous tails suggest that Msh2 blocks an alternative mechanism for removing these sequences. These results suggest that Msh2 plays multiple roles in the formation of chromosomal translocations following acute levels of DNA damage

Regional Hydroclimate Response to Stratospheric Sulfate Geoengineering and the Role of Stratospheric Heating

Geoengineering methods could potentially offset aspects of greenhouse gas‐driven climate change. However, before embarking on any such strategy, a comprehensive understanding of its impacts must be obtained. Here, a 20‐member ensemble of simulations with the Community Earth System Model with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model as its atmospheric component is used to investigate the projected hydroclimate changes that occur when greenhouse gas‐driven warming, under a high emissions scenario, is offset with stratospheric aerosol geoengineering. Notable features of the late 21st century hydroclimate response, relative to present day, include a reduction in precipitation in the Indian summer monsoon, over much of Africa, Amazonia and southern Chile and a wintertime precipitation reduction over the Mediterranean. Over most of these regions, the soil desiccation that occurs with global warming is, however, largely offset by the geoengineering. A notable exception is India, where soil desiccation and an approximate doubling of the likelihood of monsoon failures occurs. The role of stratospheric heating in the simulated hydroclimate change is determined through additional experiments where the aerosol‐induced stratospheric heating is imposed as a temperature tendency, within the same model, under present day conditions. Stratospheric heating is found to play a key role in many aspects of projected hydroclimate change, resulting in a general wet‐get‐drier, dry‐get‐wetter pattern in the tropics and extratropical precipitation changes through midlatitude circulation shifts. While a rather extreme geoengineering scenario has been considered, many, but not all, of the precipitation features scale linearly with the offset global warming

A review of global ocean temperature observations: Implications for ocean heat content estimates and climate change

The evolution of ocean temperature measurement systems is presented with a focus on the development and accuracy of two critical devices in use today (expendable bathythermographs and conductivity‐temperature‐depth instruments used on Argo floats). A detailed discussion of the accuracy of these devices and a projection of the future of ocean temperature measurements are provided. The accuracy of ocean temperature measurements is discussed in detail in the context of ocean heat content, Earth's energy imbalance, and thermosteric sea level rise. Up‐to‐date estimates are provided for these three important quantities. The total energy imbalance at the top of atmosphere is best assessed by taking an inventory of changes in energy storage. The main storage is in the ocean, the latest values of which are presented. Furthermore, despite differences in measurement methods and analysis techniques, multiple studies show that there has been a multidecadal increase in the heat content of both the upper and deep ocean regions, which reflects the impact of anthropogenic warming. With respect to sea level rise, mutually reinforcing information from tide gauges and radar altimetry shows that presently, sea level is rising at approximately 3 mm yr−1 with contributions from both thermal expansion and mass accumulation from ice melt. The latest data for thermal expansion sea level rise are included here and analyzed

New model ensemble reveals how forcing uncertainty and model structure alter climate simulated across CMIP generations of the Community Earth System Model

Climate simulation uncertainties arise from internal variability, model structure, and external forcings. Model intercomparisons (such as the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project; CMIP) and single-model large ensembles have provided insight into uncertainty sources. Under the Community Earth System Model (CESM) project, large ensembles have been performed for CESM2 (a CMIP6-era model) and CESM1 (a CMIP5-era model). We refer to these as CESM2-LE and CESM1-LE. The external forcing used in these simulations has changed to be consistent with their CMIP generation. As a result, differences between CESM2-LE and CESM1-LE ensemble means arise from changes in both model structure and forcing. Here we present new ensemble simulations which allow us to separate the influences of these model structural and forcing differences. Our new CESM2 simulations are run with CMIP5 forcings equivalent to those used in the CESM1-LE. We find a strong influence of historical forcing uncertainty due to aerosol effects on simulated climate. For the historical period, forcing drives reduced global warming and ocean heat uptake in CESM2-LE relative to CESM1-LE that is counteracted by the influence of model structure. The influence of the model structure and forcing vary across the globe, and the Arctic exhibits a distinct signal that contrasts with the global mean. For the 21st century, the importance of scenario forcing differences (SSP3–7.0 for CESM2-LE and RCP8.5 for CESM1-LE) is evident. The new simulations presented here allow us to diagnose the influence of model structure on 21st century change, despite large scenario forcing differences, revealing that differences in the meridional distribution of warming are caused by model structure. Feedback analysis reveals that clouds and their impact on shortwave radiation explain many of these structural differences between CESM2 and CESM1. In the Arctic, albedo changes control transient climate evolution differences due to structural differences between CESM2 and CESM1.</p

Observational constraints on atmospheric and oceanic cross-equatorial heat transports: revisiting the precipitation asymmetry problem in climate models

Satellite based top-of-atmosphere (TOA) and surface radiation budget observations are combined with mass corrected vertically integrated atmospheric energy divergence and tendency from reanalysis to infer the regional distribution of the TOA, atmospheric and surface energy budget terms over the globe. Hemispheric contrasts in the energy budget terms are used to determine the radiative and combined sensible and latent heat contributions to the cross-equatorial heat transports in the atmosphere (AHT_EQ) and ocean (OHT_EQ). The contrast in net atmospheric radiation implies an AHT_EQ from the northern hemisphere (NH) to the southern hemisphere (SH) (0.75 PW), while the hemispheric difference in sensible and latent heat implies an AHT_EQ in the opposite direction (0.51 PW), resulting in a net NH to SH AHT_EQ (0.24 PW). At the surface, the hemispheric contrast in the radiative component (0.95 PW) dominates, implying a 0.44 PW SH to NH OHT_EQ. Coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5) models with excessive net downward surface radiation and surface-to-atmosphere sensible and latent heat transport in the SH relative to the NH exhibit anomalous northward AHT_EQ and overestimate SH tropical precipitation. The hemispheric bias in net surface radiative flux is due to too much longwave surface radiative cooling in the NH tropics in both clear and all-sky conditions and excessive shortwave surface radiation in the SH subtropics and extratropics due to an underestimation in reflection by clouds

Corals record long-term Leeuwin current variability including Ningaloo Niño/Niña since 1795

Variability of the Leeuwin current (LC) off Western Australia is a footprint of interannual and decadal climate variations in the tropical Indo-Pacific. La Niña events often result in a strengthened LC, high coastal sea levels and unusually warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs), termed Ningaloo Niño. The rarity of such extreme events and the response of the southeastern Indian Ocean to regional and remote climate forcing are poorly understood owing to the lack of long-term records. Here we use well-replicated coral SST records from within the path of the LC, together with a reconstruction of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation to hindcast historical SST and LC strength from 1795 to 2010. We show that interannual and decadal variations in SST and LC strength characterized the past 215 years and that the most extreme sea level and SST anomalies occurred post 1980. These recent events were unprecedented in severity and are likely aided by accelerated global ocean warming and sea-level rise. © 2014 Macmillan Publishers Limited