Kejadian Iklim Ekstrem dan Dampaknya Terhadap Pertanian Tanaman Pangan di Indonesia

Abstrak. Perubahan iklim telah menganggu sistem iklim global dan menyebabkan meningkatnya frekuensi dan intensitas kejadian iklim ekstrem. Tulisan ini merupakan tinjauan mengenai proyeksi skenario iklim, faktor pengendali kejadian iklim ekstrem, serta dampaknya terhadap sektor pertanian di Indonesia. Dampak kejadian iklim ekstrim yang dominan pada sektor pertanian adalah kerusakan tanaman akibat kekeringan dan banjir. Akibat perubahan iklim, kekeringan dan banjir diproyeksikan akan meningkat frekuensi dan intensitasnya di masa akan datang. Informasi prediksi musim dapat digunakan untuk mengetahui intensitas dan wilayah yang terdampak dalam 1-2 musim ke depan. Sedangkan dampak jangka panjang 2-3 dekade ke depan dapat diketahui berdasarkan skenario proyeksi iklim. Prediksi musim telah banyak di manfaatkan untuk menyusun strategi dan kebijakan operasional seperti menyesuaikan waktu tanam, pemilihan komoditas, dan distribusi peralatan pertanian. Namun, kajian proyeksi iklim dan dampaknya terhadap produksi pangan masih sangat terbatas. Informasi tersebut diperlukan dalam perencanaan arah dan pembangunan pertanian ke depan. Oleh karena itu, kajian proyeksi iklim dan dampaknya terhadap produksi pangan perlu menjadi prioritas penelitian pertanian di Indonesia.Abstract. Climate change has disrupted the global climate system and lead to increase frequency and intensity of extreme climate events. This paper is an overview of future climate scenarios, driving force of extreme climate events, and its impacts on the agricultural sector in Indonesia. The common impacts of extreme climate events in Indonesia’s agriculture are crop damaged due to drought and flood. Due to climate change, drought and flood events is projected to intensify in the future. Seasonal prediction have been widely used to formulate operational strategies and policies such as planting time, commodity choice, and distribution of agricultural equipment. While, the climate projections are required for the forthcoming decades. However, the study of climate projections and their impact on food production for the next decades is still very limited. The information are required for planning and direction of future agricultural development. Therefore, the study of climate projections and their impact on food crop should be a priority of agricultural research in Indonesia

Frost Predictions in Dieng using the Outputs of Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Model

Dieng volcanic highland, where located in Wonosobo and Banjarnegara regencies, has a unique frost phenomenon that usually occurs in the dry season (July, August, and September). This phenomenon may attract tourism, but it has caused losses to farmers due to crop damage. Information regarding frost prediction is needed in order to minimize the negative impact of this extreme event. This study evaluates the potential use of the Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) forecast dataset for frost prediction, with a focus on two areas where frost usually occurs, i.e. the Arjuna Temple and Sikunir Hill. Daily minimum air temperature data used to predict frost events was from the outputs of the ECMWF model, which is one of the models contributed in the Subseasonal to Seasonal prediction project (S2S). The minimum air temperature observation data from the Banjarnegara station was used in conjunction with the Digital Elevation Model Nasional (DEMNAS) data to generate spatial data based on the lapse rate function. This spatial data was used as a reference to downscale the ECMWF S2S data using the bias correction approach. The results of this study indicated that the bias-corrected data of the ECMWF S2S forecast was able to show the spatial pattern of minimum air temperature from observations, especially during frost events. The S2S prediction represented by the bias-corrected ECMWF model has the potential for providing early warning of frost events in Dieng, with a lead time of more than one month before the event

Forecasting Season Onsets in Kapuas District Based on Global Climate Model Outputs

Predictions of the rainy and dry season onsets are very important in climate risk management processes, especially for the development of early warning system of land and forest fires in Kalimantan. This research aims to predict the rainy and dry season onsets in two cluster regions in Kapuas District, Central Kalimantan. The prediction models used to predict the onsets are developed by using seasonal rainfall data on September-October-November (SON) periods as predicted by five Global Climate Models (GCMs). The model uses Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) method available in the Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) software developed by the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), Columbia University. The results show that the predictors from HMC and POAMA models produce better canonical correlations (r = 0.72 and 0.89, respectively) compared to BCC (r=0.46), CWB (r=0.62), and GDAPS_F (r=0.67) models. In the development of models for predicting the dry season onsets, the predictors from CWB and POAMA models perform better canonical correlation results (r = 0.73 and 0.76, respectively) compared to BCC (r=0.53), GDAPS_F (r=0.64), and HMC (r=0.46) models. In general, the model validations showed that CWB, GDAPS_F, and POAMA models have better predictive skills than BCC and HMC models in predicting onsets of the rainy and dry seasons (with Pearson correlations (r) ranging between 0.30 and 0.75). Experiments on those five models for the predictions of rainy season onset in 2013 showed that the predicted onsets occurred on the range of 8 September to 22 October in Cluster 1 and on 3 to 7 October in Cluster 2. For the predictions of the dry season onsets in 2014, the models predicted the occurrences from 6 to 25 May in Cluster 1 and from 21 to 25 March in Cluster 2

20th century rainfall variability and the role of large scale climate events within Indo-Pacific region from IPCC AR4 models, reanalysis and observations

[Abstract]: The performance of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report No. 4 (IPCC AR4) models in simulating rainfall variability within Indo-Pacific region is being investigated. Data from 21 different climate models together with National Centre for Environmental Prediction reanalysis and other rainfall observations is being compared. The observational data sets were taken from gridded rainfall Indonesian observation data sets as well as a comprehensive set of high-resolution grids of monthly climate for the globe from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) datasets. The focus of the study is firstly, a model comparison in simulating historical rainfall variability in the region, and secondly, an investigation of the models sensitivity in simulating large scale climate events such as the El Nino Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole and its relationship with the rainfall variability over the region. Particular attention also upon the simulation of multi-decadal rainfall variability in the Indo-Pacific region

Studi Eksperimen Pengaruh Penambahan Nanofluids pada Pelumas Kompresor Terhadap Peningkatan Performa Mesin Pengkondisian Udara

Pada tahun 2015, konsumsi tenaga listrik nasional adalah sebesar 232.520,00 MWh, dengan kontribusi sektor rumah tangga mencapai 44%. Hal ini disebabkan oleh peningkatan pemanfaatan energi listrik seiring dengan meningkatnya pertumbuhan penduduk dan perkembangan teknologi alat rumah tangga, salah satunya adalah mesin pengkondisi udara (air conditioning unit, AC). AC digunakan untuk mengatur kondisi udara di dalam ruangan agar penghuni di dalamnya merasa nyaman. AC yang paling umum digunakan adalah AC split yang terdiri dari empat komponen dasar sistem refrigerasi siklus kompresi uap, yaitu kompresor, kondensor, alat ekspansi, dan evaporator. Performa AC digambarkan oleh nilai COP, yaitu perbandingan dari efek refrigerasi yang dihasilkan evaporator dengan kerja kompresor.Salah satu metode untuk meningkatkan performa AC tanpa memodifikasi alat adalah dengan pengaplikasian nanofluis ke dalam pelumas AC. Alat dan bahan yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini antaralain AC split, refrigeran hidrokarbon, pelumas sintetis jenis polyolester (POE) oil, dan nanofluids. AC split yang tersusun dari sebuah indoor unit dan outdoor unit dirangkai dengan TXV (thermostatic expansion valve), inverter, serta alat ukur berupa flowmeter, termokopel, dan pressure gauge. Pengambilan data iidilakukan dengan menggunakan volume nanofluids 0 ml, 10 ml, dan 20 ml, variasi beban evaporator (low, medium, high), dan putaran kompresor (50 Hz dan 45 Hz). Pada setiap variasi, pengambilan data dilakukan selama satu jam dengan interval 5 menit. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa aplikasi nanofluids memberikan pengaruh signifikan terhadap performa AC. Penambahan 10 ml nanofluids mengakibatkan peningkatan COP sebesar 2.39% dan kapasitas evaporator sebesar 1.35% pada beban high, serta penurunan HRR sebesar 1.03% pada beban high. Aplikasi nanofluids juga memberikan pengaruh yang signifikan terhadap kompresor AC. Penambahan 10 ml nanofluidsjuga mengakibatkan penurunan kerja kompresor sebesar 3.55% pada beban high dan daya listrik sebesar 4.39% pada beban low, serta peningkatan efisiensi isentropis kompresor sebesar 3.46% pada beban high. Di samping itu, penurunan frekuensi listrik mempengaruhi penurunan nilai COP. ============================================================================================================== In the 2015, national electricity consumption reached 232,520.00 MWh, with the contribution of the household sector 44%. This is due to the increased utilization of electrical energy along with population growth and the development of household appliances technology, including air conditioning machine (air conditioning unit, AC). AC regulates the air condition inside the room for the occupants to feel comfortable. The most common AC used is split AC consisting of four basic components of the vapor compression refrigeration cycle system; compressors, condensers, expansion devices, and evaporators. AC performance is represented by COP value, which is the comparison of refrigeration effect generated by evaporator with compressorwork. One of the methods to improve AC performance without modifying the tool is by the application of nanofluids into AC lubrication. Tools and materials for this research are split AC, hydrocarbon refrigerant, polyolester synthetic lubricant (POE) oil, and nanofluids. Split AC composed of an indoor unit and outdoorunit coupled with TXV (thermostatic expansion valve), inverter,and measuring instruments such as flowmeter, thermocouple, and pressure gauge. The data were collected using nanofluids volume 0 ml, 10 ml, and 20 ml, variation of evaporator load (low, ivmedium, high), and compressor rotation (50 Hz and 45 Hz). At each variation, data retrieval is performed for one hour with 5 min intervals. The results showed that nanofluids application had significant effects on AC performance. The addition of 10 ml ofnanofluid leads to 2.39% increase in COP and evaporator capacity of 1.35% at high load, as well as 1.03% decrease in HRR at high loads. Applications of nanofluids also had significant effect on AC compressors. The addition of 10 ml nanofluid leadsto 3.55% reduction in compressor work at high load and 4.39% electrical power at low load, as well as increase in compressor isentropic efficiency by 3.46% in medium load. In addition,decreasing electricity frequency also decline COP values

Perjanjian Kredit Yang Mencantumkan Kausula Asuransi Jiwa

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui, menganalisis dan menjelaskan penerapan hukum terhadap para pihak dengan dicantumkannya klausula asuransi jiwa dalam perjanjian kredit.Berdasarkan penelitian dan Pembahasan, maka penulis menyimpulkan Dalam asuransi jiwa kita mengenal 3 (tiga) pihak yaitu penanggung, tertanggung (debitur yang menanggungkan jiwanya), penikmat (ahli wari atau yang diperjanjikan). Ketiga pihak bila disederhanakan lagi menjadi, debitur, kreditur, dan perusahaan asuransi. Asuransi jiwa yang merupakan salah satu contoh asuransi dengan biaya tertentu yang mana penggantian risiko tidak akan sesuai dengan risiko yang dialaminya.Kematian merupakan evenemen dalam asuransi jiwa, yang menimbulkan hak dan kewajiban bagi para pihak. Pada umumnya ketika tertanggung meninggal dunia maka penanggung mempunyai kewajiban untuk memberikan ganti rugi kepada penikmat (ahli waris) kecuali diperjanjikan lain. Misalnya pihak debitur menyetujui klausula yang diberikan oleh pihak bank, berisikan kerja sama dengan pihak asuransi jiwa untuk menanggulangi risiko yang terjadi. Jadi dalam hal ini pihak bank bertindak sebagai pemegang polis (penerima) ganti kerugian

PERHITUNGAN KINERJA JALAN TERHADAP HAMBATAN SAMPING PADA RUAS JALAN GAJAH MADA KECAMATAN GENTENG BANYUWANGI

Salah satu faktor penting dalam hambatan samping berupa kendaraan keluar masuk, penyeberangan, dan kendaraan lambat. Ruas jalan Gajahmada dipilih sebagai lokasi penelitian pada ruas tersebut memiliki dua tipe jalan yaitu 2/2 UD dan 4/2 D serta pada ruas tersebut sering terjadi kemacetan pada jam puncak dikarenakan tingginya aktivitas sisi jalan berupa banyaknya kendaraan berhenti, parkir di badan jalan, penyeberangan jalan, kendaraan tak bermotor, kendaraan yang keluar masuk sisi jalan yang mempengaruhi arus lalu lintas di daeah tersebut.pengambilan data dilakukan secara langsung dilapangan untuk volume lalu lintas dan hambatan samping, sedangkan pada kecepatan dilakukan dengan alat speed gun. Selanjutnya melakukan perhitungan dengan menggunakan Manual Kapasitas Jalan Indonesia (MKJI) tahun 1997 untuk perhitungan volume lalu lintas, kecepatan dan kapasitas jalan sedangkan untuk pengaruh hambatan samping terhadap derajat kejenuhan dengan menggunakan regresi dengan bantuan Microsoft Excel dan perhitungan analisis statistik.Hasil survei bahwa tingginya aktivitas sisi jalan atau hambatan samping cukup berpengaruh terhadap tingkat kinerja jalan, pada tipe jalan 2/2 UD memiliki faktor pengaruh hambatan samping sebesar 52,8 % terhadap derajat kejenuhan dan hasil derajat kejenuhan terbesar yaitu 0,60. Sedangkan Pada tipe jalan 4/2 D tidak memiliki pengaruh pada hambatan samping karena pada kondisi dilapangan hambatan samping sangat rendah dan derajat kejenuhan terbesar hanya 0,24

Dynamical Downscaling Luaran Global Climate Model (GCM) Menggunakan Model REGCM3 untuk Proyeksi Curah Hujan di Kabupaten Indramayu

Future rainfall projection can be predicted by using Global Climate Model (GCM). In spite of low resolution, we are not able specifically to describe a local or regional information. Therefore, we applied downscaling technique of GCM output using Regional Climate Model (RCM). In this case, Regional Climate Model version 3 (RegCM3) is used to accomplish this purpose. RegCM3 is regional climate model which atmospheric properties are calculated by solving equations of motion and thermodynamics. Thus, RegCM3 is also called as dynamic downscaling model. RegCM3 has reliable capability to evaluate local or regional climate in high spatial resolution up to 10 × 10 km. In this study, dynamically downscaling techniques was applied to produce high spatial resolution (20 × 20 km) from GCM EH5OM output which commonly has rough spatial resolution (1.875o × 1.875o). Simulation show that future rainfall in Indramayu is relatively decreased compared to the baseline condition. Decreased rainfall generally occurs during the dry season (July-June-August/JJA) in a range 10-20%. Study of extreme daily rainfall indicates that there is no significant increase or decrease value

IMPACT OF CHANGES IN CLIMATE AND LAND USE ON THE FUTURE STREAMFLOW FLUCTUATION

Beside land use change, future climate change potentially alters streamflow fluctuation of a river basin in Indonesia. We investigated relative impact of changes in climate and land use on the streamflow fluctuation of a watershed for future condition (2025). To account for the climate change, we simulated future rainfall and temperature scenarios using the downscaled rainfall and mean surface temperature of 24 CMIP5 GCM outputs with moderate scenario of RCP4.5. We used distributed hydrologic model (SWAT) to simulate relative impact of changes in climate and plantation expansion on the future streamflow fluctuation.  The SWAT model performed well with the Nash-Sutcliff efficiency values of 0.80-0.85 (calibration) and 0.84-0.86 (validation). The results indicated that the climate change caused 32% decrease of the low flows during dry season and 96% increase of the flooding peak discharge during rainy season. Meanwhile, the plantation expansion led to 40% decrease of the low flow in the dry season and 65% increase of the flooding peak discharge in wet season. Both changes indicated strong impact on the extreme events such as flooding peak discharge and low flows. The impact of the climate change on the increased peak discharge was stronger compared to that of land use change.  Meanwhile, the impact of the land use change on the low flow was stronger compared to that of the climate change. The results of this study pointed out that both climate change and the plantation expansion potentially become crucial factors for the future water security in Indonesia