On the Treatment of Airline Travelers in Mathematical Models

The global spread of infectious diseases is facilitated by the ability of infected humans to travel thousands of miles in short time spans, rapidly transporting pathogens to distant locations. Mathematical models of the actual and potential spread of specific pathogens can assist public health planning in the case of such an event. Models should generally be parsimonious, but must consider all potentially important components of the system to the greatest extent possible. We demonstrate and discuss important assumptions relative to the parameterization and structural treatment of airline travel in mathematical models. Among other findings, we show that the most common structural treatment of travelers leads to underestimation of the speed of spread and that connecting travel is critical to a realistic spread pattern. Models involving travelers can be improved significantly by relatively simple structural changes but also may require further attention to details of parameterization

Dengue 1 Diversity and Microevolution, French Polynesia 2001–2006: Connection with Epidemiology and Clinics

The molecular characterization of 181 serotype 1 Dengue fever (DENV-1) viruses collected regularly during the 2001–2006 period in French Polynesia (FP) from patients experiencing various clinical presentations revealed that the virus responsible for the severe 2001 outbreak was introduced from South-East Asia, and evolved under an endemic mode until a new epidemic five years later. The dynamics of DENV-1 epidemics in FP did not follow the model of repeated virus introductions described in other South Pacific islands. They were characterized by a long sustained viral circulation and the absence of new viral introduction over a six-year period. Viral genetic variability was not observed only during outbreaks. In contrast with conventional thinking, a significant part of DENV-1 evolution may occur during endemic periods, and may reflect adaptation to the mosquito vector. However, DENV-1 evolution was globally characterized by strong purifying selection pressures leading to genome conservation, like other DENV serotypes and other arboviruses subject to constraints imposed by the host-vector alternating replication of viruses. Severe cases—dengue haemorrhagic fever (DHF) and dengue shock syndrome (DSS)—may be linked to both viral and host factors. For the first time, we report a significant correlation between intra-host viral genetic variability and clinical outcome. Severe cases were characterized by more homogeneous viral populations with lower intra-host genetic variability

Culex pipiens, an Experimental Efficient Vector of West Nile and Rift Valley Fever Viruses in the Maghreb Region

West Nile fever (WNF) and Rift Valley fever (RVF) are emerging diseases causing epidemics outside their natural range of distribution. West Nile virus (WNV) circulates widely and harmlessly in the old world among birds as amplifying hosts, and horses and humans as accidental dead-end hosts. Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) re-emerges periodically in Africa causing massive outbreaks. In the Maghreb, eco-climatic and entomologic conditions are favourable for WNV and RVFV emergence. Both viruses are transmitted by mosquitoes belonging to the Culex pipiens complex. We evaluated the ability of different populations of Cx. pipiens from North Africa to transmit WNV and the avirulent RVFV Clone 13 strain. Mosquitoes collected in Algeria, Morocco, and Tunisia during the summer 2010 were experimentally infected with WNV and RVFV Clone 13 strain at titers of 107.8 and 108.5 plaque forming units/mL, respectively. Disseminated infection and transmission rates were estimated 14–21 days following the exposure to the infectious blood-meal. We show that 14 days after exposure to WNV, all mosquito st developed a high disseminated infection and were able to excrete infectious saliva. However, only 69.2% of mosquito strains developed a disseminated infection with RVFV Clone 13 strain, and among them, 77.8% were able to deliver virus through saliva. Thus, Cx. pipiens from the Maghreb are efficient experimental vectors to transmit WNV and to a lesser extent, RVFV Clone 13 strain. The epidemiologic importance of our findings should be considered in the light of other parameters related to mosquito ecology and biology

Climate-Based Models for Understanding and Forecasting Dengue Epidemics

Dengue fever is a major public health problem in the tropics and subtropics. Since no vaccine exists, understanding and predicting outbreaks remain of crucial interest. Climate influences the mosquito-vector biology and the viral transmission cycle. Its impact on dengue dynamics is of growing interest. We analyzed the epidemiology of dengue in Noumea (New Caledonia) from 1971 to 2010 and its relationships with local and remote climate conditions using an original approach combining a comparison of epidemic and non epidemic years, bivariate and multivariate analyses. We found that the occurrence of outbreaks in Noumea was strongly influenced by climate during the last forty years. Efficient models were developed to estimate the yearly risk of outbreak as a function of two meteorological variables that were contemporaneous (explicative model) or prior (predictive model) to the outbreak onset. Local threshold values of maximal temperature and relative humidity were identified. Our results provide new insights to understand the link between climate and dengue outbreaks, and have a substantial impact on dengue management in New Caledonia since the health authorities have integrated these models into their decision making process and vector control policies. This raises the possibility to provide similar early warning systems in other countries

GloPID-R report on Chikungunya, O'nyong-nyong and Mayaro virus, part I: Biological diagnostics

The GloPID-R (Global Research Collaboration for Infectious Disease Preparedness) Chikungunya (CHIKV), O'nyong-nyong (ONNV) and Mayaro virus (MAYV) Working Group is investigating the natural history, epidemiology and medical management of infection by these viruses, to identify knowledge gaps and to propose recommendations for direct future investigations and rectification measures. Here, we present the first report dedicated to diagnostic aspects of CHIKV, ONNV and MAYV. Regarding diagnosis of the disease at the acute phase, molecular assays previously described for the three viruses require further evaluation, standardized protocols and the availability of international standards representing the genetic diversity of the viruses. Detection of specific IgM would benefit from further investigations to clarify the extent of cross-reactivity among the three viruses, the sensitivity of the assays, and the possible interfering role of cryoglobulinaemia. Implementation of reference panels and external quality assessments for both molecular and serological assays is necessary. Regarding sero-epidemiological studies, there is no reported high-throughput assay that can distinguish among these different viruses in areas of potential co-circulation. New specific tools and/or improved standardized protocols are needed to enable large-scale epidemiological studies of public health relevance to be performed. Considering the high risk of future CHIKV, MAYV and ONNV outbreaks, the Working Group recommends that a major investigation should be initiated to fill the existing diagnostic gaps

人間の海洋移動にともなう分散がフィリピン列島における媒介蚊ネッタイシマ蚊の集団遺伝構造に影響

長崎大学学位論文 [学位記番号]博（医歯薬）甲第794号 [学位授与年月日]平成27年9月18

A Wolbachia wMel transinfection in Aedes albopictus is not detrimental to host fitness and inhibits Chikungunya virus

BACKGROUND: Wolbachia inherited intracellular bacteria can manipulate the reproduction of their insect hosts through cytoplasmic incompatibility (CI), and certain strains have also been shown to inhibit the replication or dissemination of viruses. Wolbachia strains also vary in their relative fitness effects on their hosts and this is a particularly important consideration with respect to the potential of newly created transinfections for use in disease control. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In Aedes albopictus mosquitoes transinfected with the wMel strain from Drosophila melanogaster, which we previously reported to be unable to transmit dengue in lab challenges, no significant detrimental effects were observed on egg hatch rate, fecundity, adult longevity or male mating competitiveness. All these parameters influence the population dynamics of Wolbachia, and the data presented are favourable with respect to the aim of taking wMel to high population frequency. Challenge with the chikungunya (CHIKV) virus, for which Ae. albopictus is an important vector, was conducted and the presence of wMel abolished CHIKV dissemination to the saliva. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Taken together, these data suggest that introducing wMel into natural Ae. albopictus populations using bidirectional CI could be an efficient strategy for preventing or reducing the transmission of arboviruses by this species