Mapping (dis)agreement in hydrologic projections

Hydrologic projections are of vital socio-economic importance. However, they are also prone to uncertainty. In order to establish a meaningful range of storylines to support water managers in decision making, we need to reveal the relevant sources of uncertainty. Here, we systematically and extensively investigate uncertainty in hydrologic projections for 605 basins throughout the contiguous US. We show that in the majority of the basins, the sign of change in average annual runoff and discharge timing for the period 2070–2100 compared to 1985–2008 differs among combinations of climate models, hydrologic models, and parameters. Mapping the results revealed that different sources of uncertainty dominate in different regions. Hydrologic model induced uncertainty in the sign of change in mean runoff was related to snow processes and aridity, whereas uncertainty in both mean runoff and discharge timing induced by the climate models was related to disagreement among the models regarding the change in precipitation. Overall, disagreement on the sign of change was more widespread for the mean runoff than for the discharge timing. The results demonstrate the need to define a wide range of quantitative hydrologic storylines, including parameter, hydrologic model, and climate model forcing uncertainty, to support water resource planning

Self-reported health needs and use of primary health care services by adolescents enrolled in post-mandatory schools or vocational training programmes in Switzerland.

BACKGROUND: The second Swiss Multicenter Adolescent Survey on Health (SMASH02) was conducted among a representative sample (n = 7428) of students and apprentices aged 16 to 20 from the three language areas of Switzerland during the year 2002. This paper reports on health needs expressed by adolescents and their use of health care services over the 12 months preceding the survey. METHODS: Nineteen cantons representing 80% of the resident population agreed to participate. A complex iterative random cluster sample of 600 classes was drawn with classes as primary sampling unit. The participation rate was 97.7% for the classes and 99.8% for the youths in attendance. The self-administered questionnaire included 565 items. The median rate of item non-response was 1.8%. Ethical and legal requirements applying to surveys of adolescent populations were respected. RESULTS: Overall more than 90% of adolescents felt in good to excellent health. Suffering often or very often from different physical complaints or pain was also reported such as headache (boys: 15.9%, girls: 37.4%), stomach-ache (boys: 9.7%, girls: 30.0%), joint pain (boys: 24.7%, girls: 29.5%) or back pain (boys: 24.3%, girls: 34.7%). Many adolescents reported a need for help on psychosocial and lifestyle issues, such as stress (boys: 28.5%, girls: 47.7%) or depression (boys: 18.9%, girls: 34.4%). Although about 75% of adolescents reported having consulted a general practitioner and about one-third having seen another specialist, reported reasons for visits do not correspond to the expressed needs. Less than 10% of adolescents had visited a psychiatrist, a family planning centre or a social worker. CONCLUSIONS: The reported rates of health services utilisation by adolescents does not match the substantial reported needs for help in various areas. This may indicate that the corresponding problems are not adequately detected and/or addressed by professionals from the health and social sectors

Consensus on Training and Implementation of Enhanced Recovery After Surgery: A Delphi Study.

Enhanced Recovery After Surgery (ERAS) is widely accepted in current surgical practice due to its positive impact on patient outcomes. The successful implementation of ERAS is challenging and compliance with protocols varies widely. Continual staff education is essential for successful ERAS programmes. Teaching modalities exist, but there remains no agreement regarding the optimal training curriculum or how its effectiveness is assessed. We aimed to draw consensus from an expert panel regarding the successful training and implementation of ERAS. A modified Delphi technique was used; three rounds of questionnaires were sent to 58 selected international experts from 11 countries across multiple ERAS specialities and multidisciplinary teams (MDT) between January 2016 and February 2017. We interrogated opinion regarding four topics: (1) the components of a training curriculum and the structure of training courses; (2) the optimal framework for successful implementation and audit of ERAS including a guide for data collection; (3) a framework to assess the effectiveness of training; (4) criteria to define ERAS training centres of excellence. An ERAS training course must cover the evidence-based principles of ERAS with team-oriented training. Successful implementation requires strong leadership, an ERAS facilitator and an effective MDT. Effectiveness of training can be measured by improved compliance. A training centre of excellence should show a willingness to teach and demonstrable team working. We propose an international expert consensus providing an ERAS training curriculum, a framework for successful implementation, methods for assessing effectiveness of training and a definition of ERAS training centres of excellence

Methadone, Pierre Robin sequence and other congenital anomalies:case-control study

Objective Methadone is a vital treatment for women with opioid use disorder in pregnancy. Previous reports suggested an association between methadone exposure and Pierre Robin sequence (PRS), a rare craniofacial anomaly. We assessed the association between gestational methadone exposure and PRS.Design/setting This case-malformed control study used European Surveillance of Congenital Anomalies population-based registries in Ireland, the Netherlands, Italy, Switzerland, Croatia, Malta, Portugal, Germany, Wales, Norway and Spain, 1995-2011.Patients Cases included PRS based on International Classification of Disease (ICD), Ninth Edition-British Paediatric Association (BPA) code 75 603 or ICD, Tenth Edition-BPA code Q8708. Malformed controls were all non-PRS anomalies, excluding genetic conditions, among live births, fetal deaths from 20 weeks' gestation and terminations of pregnancy for fetal anomalies. An exploratory analysis assessed the association between methadone exposure and other congenital anomalies (CAs) excluding PRS. Methadone exposure was ascertained from medical records and maternal interview.Results Among 87 979 CA registrations, there were 127 methadone-exposed pregnancies and 336 PRS cases. There was an association between methadone exposure and PRS (OR adjusted for registry 12.3, 95% CI 5.7 to 26.8). In absolute terms, this association reflects a risk increase from approximately 1-12 cases per 10 000 births. A raised OR was found for cleft palate (adjusted OR 5.0, 95% CI 2.7 to 9.2).Conclusions These findings suggest that gestational methadone exposure is associated with PRS. The association may be explained by unmeasured confounding factors. The small increased risk of PRS in itself does not alter the risk-benefit balance for gestational methadone use. The association with cleft palate, a more common CA, should be assessed with independent data.</p

NeuralHydrology -- Interpreting LSTMs in Hydrology

Despite the huge success of Long Short-Term Memory networks, their applications in environmental sciences are scarce. We argue that one reason is the difficulty to interpret the internals of trained networks. In this study, we look at the application of LSTMs for rainfall-runoff forecasting, one of the central tasks in the field of hydrology, in which the river discharge has to be predicted from meteorological observations. LSTMs are particularly well-suited for this problem since memory cells can represent dynamic reservoirs and storages, which are essential components in state-space modelling approaches of the hydrological system. On basis of two different catchments, one with snow influence and one without, we demonstrate how the trained model can be analyzed and interpreted. In the process, we show that the network internally learns to represent patterns that are consistent with our qualitative understanding of the hydrological system.Comment: Pre-print of published book chapter. See journal reference and DOI for more inf

Surveillance of multiple congenital anomalies; searching for new associations

\ua9 2023, The Author(s).Many human teratogens are associated with a spectrum of congenital anomalies rather than a single defect, and therefore the identification of congenital anomalies occurring together more frequently than expected may improve the detection of teratogens. Thirty-two EUROCAT congenital anomaly registries covering 6,599,765 births provided 123,566 cases with one or more major congenital anomalies (excluding chromosomal and genetic syndromes) for the birth years 2008–2016. The EUROCAT multiple congenital anomaly algorithm identified 8804 cases with two or more major congenital anomalies in different organ systems, that were not recognized as part of a syndrome or sequence. For each pair of anomalies, the odds of a case having both anomalies relative to having only one anomaly was calculated and the p value was estimated using a two-sided Fisher’s exact test. The Benjamini–Hochberg procedure adjusted p values to control the false discovery rate and pairs of anomalies with adjusted p values &lt; 0.05 were identified. A total of 1386 combinations of two anomalies were analyzed. Out of the 31 statistically significant positive associations identified, 20 were found to be known associations or sequences already described in the literature and 11 were considered “potential new associations” by the EUROCAT Coding and Classification Committee. After a review of the literature and a detailed examination of the individual cases with the anomaly pairs, six pairs remained classified as new associations. In summary, systematically searching for congenital anomalies occurring together more frequently than expected using the EUROCAT database is worthwhile and has identified six new associations that merit further investigation

Injury morbidity in an urban and a rural area in Tanzania: an epidemiological survey

BACKGROUND: Injuries are becoming a major health problem in developing countries. Few population based studies have been carried out in African countries. We examined the pattern of nonfatal injuries and associated risk factors in an urban and rural setting of Tanzania. METHODS: A population-based household survey was conducted in 2002. Participants were selected by cluster sampling. A total of 8,188 urban and 7,035 rural residents of all ages participated in the survey. All injuries reported among all household members in the year preceding the interview and resulting in one or more days of restricted activity were included in the analyis. RESULTS: A total of 206 (2.5%) and 303 (4.3%) persons reported to have been injured in the urban and rural area respectively. Although the overall incidence was higher in the rural area, the incidence of major injuries (≥ 30 disability days) was similar in both areas. Males were at a higher risk of having an injury than females. Rural residents were more likely to experience injuries due to falls (OR = 1.6; 95% CI = 1.1 – 2.3) and cuts (OR = 4.3; 95% CI = 3.0 – 6.2) but had a lower risk of transport injuries. The most common causes of injury in the urban area were transport injuries and falls. In the rural area, cuts and stabs, of which two thirds were related to agriculture, formed the most common cause. Age was an important risk factor for certain types of injuries. Poverty levels were not significantly associated with experiencing a nonfatal injury. CONCLUSION: The patterns of injury differ in urban and rural areas partly as a reflection of livelihoods and infrastructure. Rural residents are at a higher overall injury risk than urban residents. This may be important in the development of injury prevention strategies

PIK3CA-associated developmental disorders exhibit distinct classes of mutations with variable expression and tissue distribution.

Mosaicism is increasingly recognized as a cause of developmental disorders with the advent of next-generation sequencing (NGS). Mosaic mutations of PIK3CA have been associated with the widest spectrum of phenotypes associated with overgrowth and vascular malformations. We performed targeted NGS using 2 independent deep-coverage methods that utilize molecular inversion probes and amplicon sequencing in a cohort of 241 samples from 181 individuals with brain and/or body overgrowth. We identified PIK3CA mutations in 60 individuals. Several other individuals (n = 12) were identified separately to have mutations in PIK3CA by clinical targeted-panel testing (n = 6), whole-exome sequencing (n = 5), or Sanger sequencing (n = 1). Based on the clinical and molecular features, this cohort segregated into three distinct groups: (a) severe focal overgrowth due to low-level but highly activating (hotspot) mutations, (b) predominantly brain overgrowth and less severe somatic overgrowth due to less-activating mutations, and (c) intermediate phenotypes (capillary malformations with overgrowth) with intermediately activating mutations. Sixteen of 29 PIK3CA mutations were novel. We also identified constitutional PIK3CA mutations in 10 patients. Our molecular data, combined with review of the literature, show that PIK3CA-related overgrowth disorders comprise a discontinuous spectrum of disorders that correlate with the severity and distribution of mutations

Atopic dermatitis and vitamin D: facts and controversies

Patients with atopic dermatitis have genetically determined risk factors that affect the barrier function of the skin and immune responses that interact with environmental factors. Clinically, this results in an intensely pruriginous and inflamed skin that allows the penetration of irritants and allergens and predisposes patients to colonization and infection by microorganisms. Among the various etiological factors responsible for the increased prevalence of atopic diseases over the past few decades, the role of vitamin D has been emphasized. As the pathogenesis of AD involves a complex interplay of epidermal barrier dysfunction and dysregulated immune response, and vitamin D is involved in both processes, it is reasonable to expect that vitamin D's status could be associated with atopic dermatitis' risk or severity. Such association is suggested by epidemiological and experimental data. in this review, we will discuss the evidence for and against this controversial relationship, emphasizing the possible etiopathogenic mechanisms involved.Univ Brasilia UNB, Brasilia, DF, BrazilFed Dist Hlth State Dept SES DF, Brasilia, DF, BrazilUniv Brasilia HUB UNB, Brasilia Univ Hosp, Brasilia, DF, BrazilSão Paulo Fed Univ UNIFESP, Brasilia, DF, BrazilSão Paulo Fed Univ UNIFESP, Brasilia, DF, BrazilWeb of Scienc