A nonlinear model for the investment function in Spain

This paper developpes a nonlinear single equation econometric model for the investment function in Spain, taking as starting point the equation estimated by Andrés et al. (1990). This original model, linear in its structure, incorporates oscillant dynamic relationships between the dependent and the explanatory variables. In the nonlinear model estimated in this paper, the response of the investment to production depends at any moment on the relative prices of energy, as an indicator of uncertainty into the future. This allows the investment to response with big oscillations to movements in production only in moments of great uncertainty. This alternative model introduces a nonlinear error-correction scheme, in which the adjustments to the long-run equilibrium path are affected by an exogenous variable. The model also improves the original adjustment, by reducing the residual variance in more than 30%

Forecasting monthly us consumer price indexes through a disaggregated I(2) analysis

In this paper we carry a disaggregated study of the monthly US Consumer Price Index (CPI). We consider a breakdown of US CPI in four subindexes, corresponding to four groups of markets: energy, food, rest of commodities and rest of services. This is seen as a relevant way to increase information in forecasting US CPI because the supplies and demands in those markets have very different characteristics. Consumer prices in the last three components show I(2) behavior, while the energy subindex shows a lower order of integration, but with segmentation in the growth rate. Even restricting the analysis to the series that show the same order of integration, the trending behavior of prices in these markets can be very different. An I(2) cointegration analysis on the mentioned last three components shows that there are several sources of nonstationarity in the US CPI components. A common trend analysis based on dynamic factor models confirms these results. The different trending behavior in the market prices suggests that theories for price determinations could differ through markets. In this context, disaggregation could help to improve forecasting accuracy. To show that this conjecture is valid for the non-energy US CPI, we have performed a forecasting exercise of each component, computed afterwards the aggregated value of the non energy US CPI and compared it with the forecasts obtained directly from a model for the aggregate. The improvement in one year ahead forecasts with the disaggregated approach is more than 20%, where the root mean squared error is employed as a measure of forecasting performance

Forecasting inflation in the european monetary union: a disaggregated approach by countries and by sectors

Inflation in the European Monetary Union is measured by the Harmonised Indices of Consumer Prices (HICP) and it can be analysed by breaking down the aggregate index in two different ways. One refers to the breakdown into price indexes corresponding to big groups of markets throughout the European countries and another considers the HICP by countries. Both disaggregations are of interest because in each one, the component prices are not fully cointegrated, having more than one common factor in their trends. The paper shows that the breakdown by group of markets improves the European inflation forecasts and constitutes a framework in which general and specific indicators can be introduced for further improvement

Forecasting monetary union inflation: a disaggregated approach by countries and by sectors.

Inflation in the European Monetary Union is measured by the Ra.IlJllonised Consumer Price Index (RCP!) and it can be analysed by breaking down the aggregate index in two different ways. One refers to the breakdown into price indexes corresponding to big groups of markets throughout the European countries and another considers the RCP! by countries. The paper shows that both disaggregations are of interest because in each one, the component prices are not fully cointegrated and then have more than one common factor. For purposes of forecasting the RCP! for the global EMU the disaggregation matters in all the horizons, one to twelve months, considered in the paper. The question is that innovations in an aggregate of non-fully cointegrated componentes will have different long-run effects depending on the common trend which they mainly stem from. Then the resulting ARIMA model for the aggregate can have a quite complex structure which restrictions which could be captured more easily through a disaggregate approachCore inflation; Cointegration; Univariate models; VeqCM;

Macroeconomic forecasts for the euro-zone and some policy implications.

This paper deals with the recent evolution, perspectives and some policy considerations for the Euro-Zone on the basis of the analysis of inflation, GDP and Industrial Production in EMU. The analysis shows that the year on year rates of growth will recover form the third quarter of 2002 for GDP and from October 2002 for Industrial Production. Regarding inflation, the ECB target of 2% will be attained between March and November 2002, but after this month, and during 2003 inflation will be around 2,1%

Consideraciones sobre la función de inversión en España

En este artículo se realiza un estudio detenido del modelo para la inversión estimado por Andrés et al. (1990). Dicha estimación contiene filtros racionales con raíces complejas que producen respuestas oscilantes ante variaciones de tipo impulso sobre las variables explicativas. Se detecta que tal característica de los filtros se debe a que las oscilaciones en la inversión ocurridas en los años de las crisis energéticas, 1974-80, sólo pueden captarse en el modelo mencionado mediante filtros, ya que las variables explicativas no contienen oscilaciones de tal magnitud. En este trabajo se permite que la respuesta de la inversión ante variaciones en la producción sea función de los precios relativos de la energía, con lo que las grandes oscilaciones de éstas se transmiten a la inversión. Con ello desaparece la necesidad de incorporar una estruetura oscilante en la respuesta de la inversión respecto al producto en ausencia de perturbaciones importantes en los precios relativos de la energía. El modelo obtenido en este trabajo supone una reducción de la varianza residual del 32.4 por ciento respecto al modelo de Andrés et al. (1990)

MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS FOR THE EURO-ZONE AND SOME POLICY IMPLICATIONS.

This paper deals with the recent evolution, perspectives and some policy considerations for the Euro-Zone on the basis of the analysis of inflation, GDP and Industrial Production in EMU. The analysis shows that the year on year rates of growth will recover form the third quarter of 2002 for GDP and from October 2002 for Industrial Production. Regarding inflation, the ECB target of 2% will be attained between March and November 2002, but after this month, and during 2003 inflation will be around 2,1%.

Eficacia de la terapia de grupo en cáncer de mama: variaciones en la calidad de vida

La terapia de grupo es una modalidad de intervención cada vez más utilizada con pacientes oncológicos. El presente estudio aporta evidencia de cómo una intervención psicológica en grupo mejora la calidad de vida de las pacientes con cáncer de mama. Se utilizó una muestra de 142 pacientes que solicitaban ayuda psicológica en grupo en la Asociación Española Contra el Cáncer. De éstas, 69 pacientes participaron en distintos grupos de apoyo y 73 se derivaron a lista de espera. Para la valoración se administró el cuestionario de Calidad de Vida de Font en la primera entrevista y al finalizar las sesiones de grupo. La terapia de grupo (tipo psicoeducativo) se estructuró en cuatro módulos a lo largo de 20 sesiones: ansiedad, depresión, autoestima e imagen corporal, relaciones afectivas y sexualidad. Los resultados indican que las pacientes que participan en el grupo de apoyo valoran su vida actual de manera mucho más satisfactoria que cuando iniciaron la intervención, pasando de una pérdida de la calidad de vida de 49,1 (máximo 100) a tan sólo 27,1 (PGroup therapy is increasingly used with oncological patients. The present research supports that a group intervention improves the quality of life of breast cancer patients. A sample of 142 patients who demanded psychological group support in the Association Against Cancer was used. 69 of these participate in different support groups and 73 were derived to a waiting list. The Font’s quality of life questionnaire was applied in the first interview and right after the group sessions. The psycho-educational group therapy was structured into 4 modules along 20 sessions: anxiety, depression, self-esteem and body image, affective relationships and sexuality. Results indicate that the patients who participated in the support group evaluated their actual life in a more satisfactory way (compared to the first valuation), changing from a loss of the quality of life of 49.1 points (maximum of 100) to only 27.1 (

Eficacia de las intervenciones psicológicas en mujeres con cáncer de mama

The objective of this study was to review the current evidence for efficacy of different ways of psychological intervention in breast cancer. We distinguish three main terapeutic forms: informational-educational intervention, behavioural-cognitive therapy and group therapy. Only psychological applications with breast cancer patients are reviewed. The data of several studies showed that the information-education approach has positive effects at affective and coping level, especially in the beginning of the disease. On the other hand, the cognitive-behavioural intervention seams to be effective for a better control of disease-related symptoms, affect states related to concrete situations and for coping during the phases of illness. The psychotherapeutic educational group approach seams to be more effective than the emotional one. The different therapy formats, including support by phone and Internet, may facilitate that psychological support arrives to all patients. The benefit of structured therapies for the patients’ quality of life remains at middle-term in the most cases.El objetivo del presente trabajo es revisar la evidencia actualmente disponible sobre la eficacia de diferentes formas de intervención psicológica en cáncer de mama, distinguiendo tres principales enfoques terapéuticos: Intervenciones informativo-educativas, aplicaciones cognitivo-conductuales y psicoterapias de grupo. Se revisan los trabajos desarrollados específicamente con pacientes de cáncer de mama. Los datos aportados por diversos estudios muestran que la intervención informativo-educativa tiene efectos positivos en el campo afectivo y el afrontamiento especialmente al inicio de la enfermedad. Por otra parte, existe suficiente evidencia de que las técnicas cognitivo-conductuales son eficaces para mejorar el control de algunos síntomas, el estado afectivo relacionado con situaciones concretas y el afrontamiento a la enfermedad en sus diversas fases. El enfoque psicoterapéutico de grupo es más efectivo si destaca los aspectos educativos que centrándose únicamente en las emociones. La utilización de diversos formatos incluyendo el soporte telefónico e Internet deben facilitar que alguna forma de ayuda psicológica complementaria llege a todas las pacientes. Los efectos beneficiosos de las terapias estructuradas sobre la calidad de vida de las pacientes suelen prolongarse a medio plazo una vez finalizada la misma

22 Years of inflation assessment and forecasting experience at the bulletin of EU & US inflation and macroeconomic analysis

The Bulletin of EU & US Inflation and Macroeconomic Analysis (BIAM) is a monthly publication that has been reporting real time analysis and forecasts for inflation and other macroeconomic aggregates for the Euro Area, the US and Spain since 1994. The BIAM inflation forecasting methodology stands on working with useful disaggregation schemes, using leading indicators when possible and applying outliers' correction. The paper relates this methodology to corresponding topics in the literature and discusses the design of disaggregation schemes. It concludes that those schemes would be useful if they were formulated according to economic, institutional and statistical criteria aiming to end up with a set of components with very different statistical properties for which valid single-equation models could be built. The BIAM assessment, which derives from a new observation, is based on (a) an evaluation of the forecasting errors (innovations) at the components' level. It provides information on which sectors they come from and allows, when required, for the appropriate correction in the specific models. (b) In updating the path forecast with its corresponding fan chart. Finally, we show that BIAM real time Euro Area inflation forecasts compare successfully with the consensus from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters, one and two years ahead.Along these 22 years many people have contributed to this Bulletin and this paper has benefited from their work. It would be impossible to name all these contributors but we want to express our deepest gratitude to them. Since 2002, Angel Sánchez has been responsible for the analysis of the US economy and we are very grateful for providing some material for this paper. Our many thanks also to Guillermo Carlomagno for his permission for using some results from his PhD thesis. The authors acknowledge financial support from Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness project numbers (MINECO/FEDER) ECO2015-70331-C2-2-R, ECO2015-66593-P and ECO2016-76818-C3-3-P