Modelled sensitivity of the snow regime to topography, shrub fraction and shrub height

Recent studies show that shrubs are colonizing higher latitudes and altitudes in the Arctic. Shrubs affect the wind transport, accumulation and melt of snow, but there have been few sensitivity studies of how shrub expansion might affect snowmelt rates and timing. Here, a three-source energy balance model (3SOM), which calculates vertical and horizontal energy fluxes – thus allowing within-cell advection – between the atmosphere, snow, snow-free ground and vegetation, is introduced. The three-source structure was specifically adopted to investigate shrub–tundra processes associated with patchy snow cover that single- or two-source models fail to address. The ability of the model to simulate the snow regime of an upland tundra valley is evaluated; a blowing snow transport and sublimation model is used to simulate premelt snow distributions and 3SOM is used to simulate melt. Some success at simulating turbulent fluxes in point simulations and broad spatial pattern in distributed runs is shown even if the lack of advection between cells causes melt rates to be underestimated. The models are then used to investigate the sensitivity of the snow regime in the valley to varying shrub cover and topography. Results show that, for domain average shrub fractional cover ≤0.4, topography dominates the pre- and early melt energy budget but has little influence for higher shrub cover. The increase in domain average sensible heat fluxes and net radiation with increasing shrub cover is more marked without topography where shrubs introduce wind-induced spatial variability of snow and snow-free patches. As snowmelt evolves, differences in the energy budget between simulations with and without topography remain relatively constant and are independent of shrub cover. These results suggest that, to avoid overestimating the effect of shrub expansion on the energy budget of the Arctic, future large-scale investigations should consider wind redistribution of snow, shrub bending and emergence, and sub-grid topography as they affect the variability of snow cover

Measurements and modelling of snowmelt and turbulent heat fluxes over shrub tundra

Measurements of snowmelt and turbulent heat fluxes were made during the snowmelt periods of two years at two neighbouring tundra sites in the Yukon, one in a sheltered location with tall shrubs exposed above deep snow and the other in an exposed location with dwarf shrubs covered by shallow snow. The snow was about twice as deep in the valley as on the plateau at the end of each winter and melted out about 10 days later. The site with buried vegetation showed a transition from air-to-surface heat transfers to surface-to-air heat transfers as bare ground became exposed during snowmelt, but there were daytime transfers of heat from the surface to the air at the site with exposed vegetation even while snow remained on the ground. A model calculating separate energy balances for snow and exposed vegetation, driven with meteorological data from the sites, is found to be able to reproduce these behaviours. Averaged over 30-day periods the model gives about 8 Wm<sup>−2</sup> more sensible heat flux to the atmosphere for the valley site than for the plateau site. Sensitivity of simulated fluxes to model parameters describing vegetation cover and density is investigated

Full effects of land use change in the representative concentration pathways

Future land use change (LUC) is an important component of the IPCC representative concentration pathways (RCPs), but in these scenarios' radiative forcing targets the climate impact of LUC only includes greenhouse gases. However, climate effects due to physical changes of the land surface can be as large. Here we show the critical importance of including non-carbon impacts of LUC when considering the RCPs. Using an ensemble of climate model simulations with and without LUC, we show that the net climate effect is very different from the carbon-only effect. Despite opposite signs of LUC, all the RCPs assessed here have a small net warming from LUC because of varying biogeophysical effects, and in RCP4.5 the warming is outside of the expected variability. The afforestation in RCP4.5 decreases surface albedo, making the net global temperature anomaly over land around five times larger than RCPs 2.6 and 8.5, for around twice the amount of LUC. Consequent changes to circulation in RCP4.5 in turn reduce Arctic sea ice cover. The small net positive temperature effect from LUC could make RCP4.5's universal carbon tax, which incentivizes retaining and growing forest, counter productive with respect to climate. However, there are spatial differences in the balance of impacts, and potential climate gains would need to be assessed against other environmental aims

Effects of needleleaf forest cover on radiation and snowmelt dynamics in the Canadian Rocky Mountains

Abstract: Radiation is the main energy source for snowpack warming and melt in mountain needleleaf forests, and runoff from these forests is the main contributor to spring river flows in western North America. Utilizing extensive field obser-vations, the effect of needleleaf forest cover on radiation and snowmelt timing was quantified at pine and spruce forest sites and nearby clearings of varying slope and aspect in an eastern Canadian Rocky Mountain headwater basin. Compared with open clearing sites, shortwave radiation was much reduced under forest cover, resulting in smaller differences in melt timing between forested slopes relative to open slopes with different aspects. In contrast, longwave radiation to snow was substantially enhanced under forest cover, especially at the dense spruce forest sites where longwave radiation dominated total energy for snowmelt. In both pine and spruce environments, forest cover acted to substantially reduce total radiation to snow and delay snowmelt timing on south-facing slopes while increasing total radiation and advancing snowmelt timing on north-facing slopes. Results strongly suggest that impacts on radiation to snow and snowmelt timing from changes in mountain forest cover will depend much on the slope and aspect at which changes occur. Résume ́ : Le rayonnement est la principale source d’énergie qui réchauffe et fait fondre la couche de neige dans les forêts alpines de conifères ou ̀ le ruissellement contribue dans une large mesure au débit printanier des rivières dans l’ouest de l’Amérique du Nord. A ` l’aide de nombreuses observations sur le terrain, dans un bassin de tête de la partie est des monta-gnes Rocheuses canadiennes, l’effet du couvert de forêt de conifères sur le rayonnement et sur le moment de la fonte d

Will fire danger be reduced by using Solar Radiation Management to limit global warming to 1.5°C compared to 2.0°C

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from American Geophysical Union (AGU) via the DOI in this record.The commitment to limit warming to 1.5°C as set out in the Paris Agreement is widely regarded as ambitious and challenging. It has been proposed that reaching this target may require a number of actions, which could include some form of carbon removal or Solar Radiation Management in addition to strong emission reductions. Here we assess one theoretical solution using Solar Radiation Management to limit global mean warming to 1.5°C above pre‐industrial temperatures, and use the McArthur fire danger index to evaluate the change in fire danger. The results show that globally fire danger is reduced in most areas when temperatures are limited to 1.5°C compared to 2.0°C. The number of days where fire danger is ‘high’ or above is reduced by up to 30 days per year on average, although there are regional variations. In certain regions, fire danger is increased, experiencing 31 more days above ‘high’ fire danger.This work was supported by the European Commission‟s 7th Framework Programme (EU/FP7) under Grant Agreement 603864 (HELIX), and the Joint UK BEIS/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme (GA01101)

The International Urban Energy Balance Models Comparison Project: First Results from Phase 1

A large number of urban surface energy balance models now exist with different assumptions about the important features of the surface and exchange processes that need to be incorporated. To date, no com- parison of these models has been conducted; in contrast, models for natural surfaces have been compared extensively as part of the Project for Intercomparison of Land-surface Parameterization Schemes. Here, the methods and first results from an extensive international comparison of 33 models are presented. The aim of the comparison overall is to understand the complexity required to model energy and water exchanges in urban areas. The degree of complexity included in the models is outlined and impacts on model performance are discussed. During the comparison there have been significant developments in the models with resulting improvements in performance (root-mean-square error falling by up to two-thirds). Evaluation is based on a dataset containing net all-wave radiation, sensible heat, and latent heat flux observations for an industrial area in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. The aim of the comparison is twofold: to identify those modeling ap- proaches that minimize the errors in the simulated fluxes of the urban energy balance and to determine the degree of model complexity required for accurate simulations. There is evidence that some classes of models perform better for individual fluxes but no model performs best or worst for all fluxes. In general, the simpler models perform as well as the more complex models based on all statistical measures. Generally the schemes have best overall capability to model net all-wave radiation and least capability to model latent heat flux

Influence of spatial resolution on snow cover dynamics for a coastal and mountainous region at high latitudes (Norway)

Climate models show that global warming will disproportionately influence high‐latitude regions and indicate drastic changes in, among others, seasonal snow cover. However, current continental and global simulations covering these regions are often run at coarse grid resolutions, potentially introducing large errors in computed fluxes and states. To quantify some of these errors, we have assessed the sensitivity of an energy‐balance snow model to changes in grid resolution using a multiparametrization framework for the spatial domain of mainland Norway. The framework has allowed us to systematically test how different parametrizations, describing a set of processes, influence the discrepancy, here termed the scale error, between the coarser (5 to 50‐km) and finest (1‐km) resolution. The simulations were set up such that liquid and solid precipitation was identical between the different resolutions, and differences between the simulations arise mainly during the ablation period. The analysis presented in this study focuses on evaluating the scale error for several variables relevant for hydrological and land surface modelling, such as snow water equivalent and turbulent heat exchanges. The analysis reveals that the choice of method for routing liquid water through the snowpack influences the scale error most for snow water equivalent, followed by the type of parametrizations used for computing turbulent heat fluxes and albedo. For turbulent heat exchanges, the scale error is mainly influenced by model assumptions related to atmospheric stability. Finally, regions with strong meteorological and topographic variability show larger scale errors than more homogenous regions.publishedVersio

Climatic impacts of land-use change due to crop yield increases and a universal carbon tax from a scenario model*

Future land cover will have a significant impact on climate and is strongly influenced by the extent of agricultural land use. Differing assumptions of crop yield increase and carbon pricing mitigation strategies affect projected expansion of agricultural land in future scenarios. In the representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), the carbon effects of these land cover changes are included, although the biogeophysical effects are not. The afforestation in RCP4.5 has important biogeophysical impacts on climate, in addition to the land carbon changes, which are directly related to the assumption of crop yield increase and the universal carbon tax. To investigate the biogeophysical climatic impact of combinations of agricultural crop yield increases and carbon pricing mitigation, five scenarios of land-use change based on RCP4.5 are used as inputs to an earth system model [Hadley Centre Global Environment Model, version 2-Earth System (HadGEM2-ES)]. In the scenario with the greatest increase in agricultural land (as a result of no increase in crop yield and no climate mitigation) there is a significant -0.49 K worldwide cooling by 2100 compared to a control scenario with no land-use change. Regional cooling is up to -2.2 K annually in northeastern Asia. Including carbon feedbacks from the land-use change gives a small global cooling of -0.067 K. This work shows that there are significant impacts from biogeophysical land-use changes caused by assumptions of crop yield and carbon mitigation, which mean that land carbon is not the whole story. It also elucidates the potential conflict between cooling from biogeophysical climate effects of land-use change and wider environmental aims

Reading and numeracy attainment of children reported to child protection services: A population record linkage study controlling for other adversities

Background: Maltreated children are at risk of poor educational outcomes, but also experience greater individual, family, and neighbourhood adversities that may obscure an understanding of relationships between child protection involvement and educational attainment. Objective: To examine associations between child protection involvement and 3rd- and 5th-grade reading and numeracy attainment, while controlling multiple other adversities. Participants and Setting Participants were 56,860 Australian children and their parents from the New South Wales Child Development Study with linked multi-agency records. Methods: Multinomial logistic regressions examined associations between level of child protection involvement (Out-Of-Home Care [OOHC] placement; substantiated Risk Of Significant Harm [ROSH]; unsubstantiated ROSH; non-ROSH; and no child protection report) and standardised tests of 3rd- and 5th-grade reading and numeracy. Fully adjusted models controlled demographic, pregnancy, birth, and parental factors, and early (kindergarten) developmental vulnerabilities on literacy and numeracy, and other developmental domains (social, emotional, physical, communication). Results: All children with child protection reports were more likely to attain below average, and less likely to attain above average, 3rd- and 5th-grade reading and numeracy, including children with reports below the ROSH threshold. Children with substantiated ROSH reports who were not removed into care demonstrated the worst educational attainment, with some evidence of protective effects for children in OOHC. Conclusions: A cross-agency response to supporting educational attainment for all children reported to child protection services is required, including targeted services for children in OOHC or with substantiated ROSH reports, and referral of vulnerable families (unsubstantiated and non-ROSH cases) to secondary service organisations (intermediate intervention).Kristin R.Laurens, Fahkrul Islam, Maina Kariuki, Felicity Harris, Marilyn Chilvers ... Sally A.Brinkman ... et al