An exploratory policy analysis of electric vehicle sales competition and sensitivity to infrastructure in Europe

This research contributes to discussions about policy interventions to stimulate the transition of vehicle technology. Concentrating on passenger cars, an extensive system dynamics based market agent model of powertrain technology transitions within the EU up to 2050 is employed. With a focus on subsidy scenarios for both infrastructure deployment and vehicle purchase, and set within the context of the EU fleet emission regulations, we find that there are important interactions between different powertrain types and with infrastructure provision. For example, strong plug-in electric vehicle (PiEV) policy could inhibit the maturity of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. Infrastructure provision is important for improving the utility of a PiEV, but we find that in the early market it may have a weaker correlation with uptake than other policy options, until the PiEV stock share is over around 5%. Furthermore, an attempt to install a ratio of much more than one charge point per 10 PiEV may lead to little gains and high costs. PiEV sales are relatively insensitive at target levels over 25 PiEV per charge point. The results of our study can help policymakers to find the right balance and timing of measures targeting the transition towards low carbon alternative vehicles

Road and intermodal transport performance: the impact of operational costs and air pollution external costs

peer reviewedThe transportation of goods is essential for the economy, but it also contributes to air pollution which, in turn, affects human health. These negative impacts generate additional costs for society that are not necessarily taken into account in public transportation policies and in private transportation decisions of companies and individuals. This leads to inefficient transportation systems where the social equilibrium is not reached. Intermodal transport is promoted by the European Commission to reduce these negative externalities. The objective of this paper is to analyze at a strategic level the effect on modal split between road, intermodal rail and intermodal inland waterway transport of several economic or environmental policies. An intermodal allocation model is applied to the Belgian case in order to identify the modal split changes between the single minimization of costs (operational or health-related external) and the introduction of additional road taxes