Micronutrient powders to combat anaemia in young children: do they work?

In 2016, the World Health Organization (WHO) recommended point-of-use fortification of complementary foods with iron-containing micronutrient powders to improve iron status and reduce anaemia in children at risk of anaemia. This recommendation continues to be debated. In a recent trial among Kenyan children aged 12-36 months, we found no evidence that daily point-of-use fortification was efficacious in improving haemoglobin concentration or plasma iron markers. An updated meta-analysis indicated that, on average, in an arbitrarily selected setting and with adherence as obtained under trial conditions, one may expect a small increase in haemoglobin concentration in preschool children, with the upper limit of the 95% CI virtually excluding an effect beyond 5.5 g/L. In the present paper, we elaborate on the interpretation of these findings and the meta-analyses that formed the basis for the WHO guidelines. In particular, we draw attention to the phenomenon that small group differences in the distribution of continuous outcomes (haemoglobin concentration, ferritin concentrations) can give a false impression of relatively large effects on the prevalence of the dichotomised outcomes (anaemia, iron deficiency).Please see related articles: https://bmcmedicine.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12916-017-0839-z , https://bmcmedicine.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12916-017-0867-8

Diagnostic utility of zinc protoporphyrin to detect iron deficiency in Kenyan preschool children: a community-based survey.

BACKGROUND: Zinc protoporphyrin (ZPP) has been used to screen and manage iron deficiency in individual children, but it has also been recommended to assess population iron status. The diagnostic utility of ZPP used in combination with haemoglobin concentration has not been evaluated in pre-school children. We aimed to a) identify factors associated with ZPP in children aged 12-36 months; b) assess the diagnostic performance and utility of ZPP, either alone or in combination with haemoglobin, to detect iron deficiency. METHODS: We used baseline data from 338 Kenyan children enrolled in a community-based randomised trial. To identify factors related to ZZP measured in whole blood or erythrocytes, we used bivariate and multiple linear regression analysis. To assess diagnostic performance, we excluded children with elevated plasma concentrations of C-reactive protein or α1-acid glycoprotein, and with Plasmodium infection, and we analysed receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves, with iron deficiency defined as plasma ferritin concentration 5.93120) correctly ruled out iron deficiency in 37.4%-53.7% of children screened, depending on the true prevalence, with both specificity and negative predictive value ≥90%. CONCLUSIONS: In young children, whole blood ZPP and erythrocyte ZPP have added diagnostic value in detecting iron deficiency compared to haemoglobin concentration alone. A single diagnostic score based on haemoglobin concentration and whole blood ZPP can rule out iron deficiency in a substantial proportion of children screened. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02073149 (25 February 2014)

Comparison of home fortification with two iron formulations among Kenyan children: Rationale and design of a placebo-controlled non-inferiority trial.

INTRODUCTION: Home fortification powders containing iron and other micronutrients have been recommended by World Health Organisation to prevent iron deficiency anaemia in areas of high prevalence. There is evidence, however, that home fortification at this iron dose may cause gastrointestinal adverse events including diarrhoea. Providing a low dose of highly absorbable iron (3 mg iron as NaFeEDTA) may be safer because the decreased amount of iron in the gut lumen can possibly reduce the burden of these adverse effects whilst resulting in similar or higher amounts of absorbed iron. OBJECTIVE: To show non-inferiority of home fortification with 3 mg iron as NaFeEDTA compared with 12.5 mg iron as encapsulated ferrous fumarate, with haemoglobin response as the primary outcome. DESIGN: 338 Kenyan children aged 12-36 months will be randomly allocated to daily home fortification with either: a) 3 mg iron as NaFeEDTA (experimental treatment), b) 12.5 mg iron as encapsulated ferrous fumarate (reference), or c) placebo. At baseline, after 30 days of intervention and within 100 days post-intervention, blood samples will be assessed for primary outcome (haemoglobin concentration), iron status markers, Plasmodium parasitaemia and inflammation markers. Urine and stool samples will be assessed for hepcidin concentrations and inflammation, respectively. Adherence will be assessed by self-reporting, sachet counts and by an electronic monitoring device. CONCLUSION: If daily home fortification with a low dose of iron (3 mg NaFeEDTA) has similar or superior efficacy to a high dose (12.5 mg ferrous fumarate) then it would be the preferred choice for treatment of iron deficiency anaemia in children

Pre-operative trichiatic eyelash pattern predicts post-operative trachomatous trichiasis.

IMPORTANCE: Trichiasis surgery programs globally have faced high rates of poor surgical outcomes. Identifying correctable risk factors for improving long-term outcomes is essential for countries targeting elimination of trachoma as a public health problem. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether the location of trichiatic eyelashes prior to surgery influences development of post-operative trichiasis (PTT) within two years after surgery. DESIGN: Secondary data analysis of four randomized clinical trials evaluating methods to improve trichiasis surgery outcomes. These include the Surgery for Trichiasis, Antibiotics for Recurrence (STAR) trial, Partnership for Rapid Elimination of Trachoma (PRET-Surgery), absorbable versus silk sutures trial, and epilation versus surgery for minor trichiasis trial. SETTING: Primary trials were conducted in rural areas of Ethiopia and Tanzania. INTERVENTIONS OR EXPOSURES: Trichiasis surgery performed with either the bilamellar tarsal rotation procedure or posterior lamellar rotation procedure. MAIN OUTCOMES: Prevalence of PTT within two years after surgery, location of trichiatic eyelashes pre-operatively and post-operatively. RESULTS: 6,747 eyelids that underwent first-time trichiasis surgery were included. PTT rates varied by study, ranging from 10-40%. PTT was less severe (based on number of trichiatic eyelashes) than initial trichiasis for 72% of those developing PTT, and only 2% of eyelids were worse at follow up than pre-operatively. Eyelids with central only-trichiasis pre-operatively had lower rates of PTT than eyelids with peripheral only trichiasis in each of the three trials that included severe TT cases. 10% of eyelids with peripheral trichiasis pre-operatively that develop PTT have central TT post-operatively. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Pre-operative central trichiasis is less likely than peripheral trichiasis to be associated with subsequent PTT. Regardless of type of surgery, surgeon skill levels, or pre-operative trichiasis severity, the presence of peripheral trichiasis pre-operatively is associated with higher rates of PTT. Making an incision that extends the length of the eyelid and adequately rotating the nasal and temporal aspects of the eyelid when suturing may help to minimize the chance of developing peripheral PTT. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov PRET: NCT00886015; Suture: NCT005228560; Epilation: NCT00522912

Measuring routine childhood vaccination coverage in 204 countries and territories, 1980-2019 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020, Release 1

Background Measuring routine childhood vaccination is crucial to inform global vaccine policies and programme implementation, and to track progress towards targets set by the Global Vaccine Action Plan (GVAP) and Immunization Agenda 2030. Robust estimates of routine vaccine coverage are needed to identify past successes and persistent vulnerabilities. Drawing from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2020, Release 1, we did a systematic analysis of global, regional, and national vaccine coverage trends using a statistical framework, by vaccine and over time. Methods For this analysis we collated 55 326 country-specific, cohort-specific, year-specific, vaccine-specific, and dosespecific observations of routine childhood vaccination coverage between 1980 and 2019. Using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, we produced location-specific and year-specific estimates of 11 routine childhood vaccine coverage indicators for 204 countries and territories from 1980 to 2019, adjusting for biases in countryreported data and reflecting reported stockouts and supply disruptions. We analysed global and regional trends in coverage and numbers of zero-dose children (defined as those who never received a diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis [DTP] vaccine dose), progress towards GVAP targets, and the relationship between vaccine coverage and sociodemographic development. Findings By 2019, global coverage of third-dose DTP (DTP3; 81.6% [95% uncertainty interval 80.4-82 .7]) more than doubled from levels estimated in 1980 (39.9% [37.5-42.1]), as did global coverage of the first-dose measles-containing vaccine (MCV1; from 38.5% [35.4-41.3] in 1980 to 83.6% [82.3-84.8] in 2019). Third- dose polio vaccine (Pol3) coverage also increased, from 42.6% (41.4-44.1) in 1980 to 79.8% (78.4-81.1) in 2019, and global coverage of newer vaccines increased rapidly between 2000 and 2019. The global number of zero-dose children fell by nearly 75% between 1980 and 2019, from 56.8 million (52.6-60. 9) to 14.5 million (13.4-15.9). However, over the past decade, global vaccine coverage broadly plateaued; 94 countries and territories recorded decreasing DTP3 coverage since 2010. Only 11 countries and territories were estimated to have reached the national GVAP target of at least 90% coverage for all assessed vaccines in 2019. Interpretation After achieving large gains in childhood vaccine coverage worldwide, in much of the world this progress was stalled or reversed from 2010 to 2019. These findings underscore the importance of revisiting routine immunisation strategies and programmatic approaches, recentring service delivery around equity and underserved populations. Strengthening vaccine data and monitoring systems is crucial to these pursuits, now and through to 2030, to ensure that all children have access to, and can benefit from, lifesaving vaccines. Copyright (C) 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.Peer reviewe

Global, regional, and national burden of disorders affecting the nervous system, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BackgroundDisorders affecting the nervous system are diverse and include neurodevelopmental disorders, late-life neurodegeneration, and newly emergent conditions, such as cognitive impairment following COVID-19. Previous publications from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor Study estimated the burden of 15 neurological conditions in 2015 and 2016, but these analyses did not include neurodevelopmental disorders, as defined by the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-11, or a subset of cases of congenital, neonatal, and infectious conditions that cause neurological damage. Here, we estimate nervous system health loss caused by 37 unique conditions and their associated risk factors globally, regionally, and nationally from 1990 to 2021.MethodsWe estimated mortality, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs), by age and sex in 204 countries and territories, from 1990 to 2021. We included morbidity and deaths due to neurological conditions, for which health loss is directly due to damage to the CNS or peripheral nervous system. We also isolated neurological health loss from conditions for which nervous system morbidity is a consequence, but not the primary feature, including a subset of congenital conditions (ie, chromosomal anomalies and congenital birth defects), neonatal conditions (ie, jaundice, preterm birth, and sepsis), infectious diseases (ie, COVID-19, cystic echinococcosis, malaria, syphilis, and Zika virus disease), and diabetic neuropathy. By conducting a sequela-level analysis of the health outcomes for these conditions, only cases where nervous system damage occurred were included, and YLDs were recalculated to isolate the non-fatal burden directly attributable to nervous system health loss. A comorbidity correction was used to calculate total prevalence of all conditions that affect the nervous system combined.FindingsGlobally, the 37 conditions affecting the nervous system were collectively ranked as the leading group cause of DALYs in 2021 (443 million, 95% UI 378–521), affecting 3·40 billion (3·20–3·62) individuals (43·1%, 40·5–45·9 of the global population); global DALY counts attributed to these conditions increased by 18·2% (8·7–26·7) between 1990 and 2021. Age-standardised rates of deaths per 100 000 people attributed to these conditions decreased from 1990 to 2021 by 33·6% (27·6–38·8), and age-standardised rates of DALYs attributed to these conditions decreased by 27·0% (21·5–32·4). Age-standardised prevalence was almost stable, with a change of 1·5% (0·7–2·4). The ten conditions with the highest age-standardised DALYs in 2021 were stroke, neonatal encephalopathy, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, diabetic neuropathy, meningitis, epilepsy, neurological complications due to preterm birth, autism spectrum disorder, and nervous system cancer.InterpretationAs the leading cause of overall disease burden in the world, with increasing global DALY counts, effective prevention, treatment, and rehabilitation strategies for disorders affecting the nervous system are needed

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. METHODS The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. FINDINGS The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. INTERPRETATION Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Adherence to home fortification with micronutrient powders in Kenyan pre-school children : Self-reporting and sachet counts compared to an electronic monitoring device

Background: The efficacy of home fortification with iron-containing micronutrient powders varies between trials, perhaps in part due to population differences in adherence. We aimed to assess to what extent adherence measured by sachet count or self-reporting forms is in agreement with adherence measured by electronic device. In addition, we explored how each method of adherence assessment (electronic device, sachet count, self-reporting forms) is associated with haemoglobin concentration measured at the end of intervention; and to what extent baseline factors were associated with adherence as measured by electronic device. Methods: Three hundred thirty-eight rural Kenyan children aged 12-36 months were randomly allocated to three treatment arms (home fortification with two different iron formulations or placebo). Home fortificants were administered daily by parents or guardians over a 30 day-intervention period. We assessed adherence using an electronic device that stores and provides information of the time and day of opening of the container that was used to store the fortificants sachets in each child's residence. In addition, we assessed adherence by self-reporting and sachet counts. We also measured haemoglobin concentration at the end of intervention. Results: Adherence, defined as having received at least 24 sachets (≥ 80%), during the 30-day intervention period was attained by only 60.6% of children as assessed by the electronic device. The corresponding values were higher when adherence was assessed by self-report (83.9%; difference: 23.3%, 95% CI: 18.8% to 27.8%) or sachet count (86.3%; difference: 25.7%, 95% CI: 21.0% to 30.4%). Among children who received iron, each 10 openings of the electronic cap of the sachet storage container were associated with an increase in haemoglobin concentration at the end of intervention by 1.2 g/L (95% CI: 0.0 to 1.9 g/L). Adherence was associated with the age of the parent but not with intervention group; with age, sex or anthropometric indices of the child; or with age or sex of the parent or guardian. Conclusions: The use of self -reporting and sachet count may lead to overestimates of adherence to home fortification. Trial registration: The trial was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT02073149) on 25 February 2014