The profitability of contrarian strategies and the overreaction hypothesis : empirical evidence

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Category-based Tail Comovement

Traditional …financial theory predicts that comovement in asset returns is due to fundamentals. An alternative view is that of Barberis and Shleifer (2003) and Bar- beris, Shleifer and Wurgler (2005) who propose a sentiment based theory of comovement, delinking it from fundamentals. In their paper they view comovement under the prism of the standard Pearson's correlation measure, implicitly excluding extreme market events, such as the latest …financial crisis. Poon, Rockinger and Tawn (2004) have shown that under such events different types of comovement or dependence may co-exist, and make a clear distinction between the four types of dependence: perfect dependent, independent, asymptotically dependent and asymptotically independent. In this paper we extend the sentiment based theory of comovement so as to cover the whole spectrum of dependence, including extreme comovement such as the one that can be observed in …financial crises. One of the key contributions of this paper is that it formally proves that assets belonging to the same category comove too much in the tail and reclassifying an asset into a new category raises its tail dependence with that category.Interest rates ; Yield curve ; ICA ; PCA

Recent advances in lending to the poor with asymmetric information

International audienceMicrofinance institutions have successfully extended unsecured small loans to poor and opaque borrowers at the bottom of the economic pyramid. This success is largely due to innovative financial contracts that impose joint liability and create dynamic incentives to mitigate the effects of asymmetric information. Given recent advances in microfinance contracts, there is a need to map the theoretical developments. This paper aims to accomplish that, by performing a critical literature survey of microlending contracts, focusing on joint liability and dynamic incentives, bringing out some of the deficiencies of contract-theoretic propositions that cannot effectively account for the social mission of microfinance

Category-based Tail Comovement

Traditional financial theory predicts that comovement in asset returns is due to fundamentals. An alternative view is that of Barberis and Shleifer (2003) and Bar- beris, Shleifer and Wurgler (2005) who propose a sentiment based theory of comovement, delinking it from fundamentals. In their paper they view comovement under the prism of the standard Pearson's correlation measure, implicitly excluding extreme market events, such as the latest financial crisis. Poon, Rockinger and Tawn (2004) have shown that under such events different types of comovement or dependence may co-exist, and make a clear distinction between the four types of dependence: perfect dependent, independent, asymptotically dependent and asymptotically independent. In this paper we extend the sentiment based theory of comovement so as to cover the whole spectrum of dependence, including extreme comovement such as the one that can be observed in financial crises. One of the key contributions of this paper is that it formally proves that assets belonging to the same category comove too much in the tail and reclassifying an asset into a new category raises its tail dependence with that category

Ambiguity aversion, company size and the pricing of earnings forecasts

Working paper dated November 2011. Final version published by Wiley; available online at http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/Several authors have reported an unconditional size effect in returns around earnings announcements. In this study we show how this finding can be understood as resulting from ambiguity aversion. We hypothesize that analyst forecasts for smaller companies are relatively more ambiguous; hence they are priced pessimistically by ambiguity-averse investors. As the quarter comes to a close and ambiguity gradually subsides, the stock prices of smaller companies rise to correct this pessimism, creating the size effect. Our results support these hypotheses

Corporate Taxes and Economic Inequality: A Credit Channel

Corporate taxation can have redistributive effects on income and wealth. We hypothesize and empirically establish such an effect working via bank credit. Using a unique sample of majority-owned firms that apply for credit, we show that after a decrease in corporate tax rates the relative-ly poor get easier access to credit. However, this policy also considerably increases loan amounts and decreases loan spreads for the relatively rich. Ultimately, reducing the corporate tax rate pre-dominantly increases the future income and wealth of relatively rich business owners

Financial vulnerability and seeking expert advice: Evidence from a survey experiment

The role of a bank advisor is especially important for guiding and counseling financially distressed individuals. Using a randomized controlled survey experiment conducted on a representative sample of French individuals and priming the financial vulnerability of half the respondents, we examine attitudes toward bank advisors. We find that priming deters low-income individuals from showing an extremely negative attitude toward seeking banking advice (positive effect); it also deters them from showing an extremely positive attitude (negative effect). We also find that acute financial distress partially drives the positive effect, and a lack of financial literacy partially drives the negative effect

Sovereign CDS spread determinants and spill-over effects during financial crisis: a panel VAR approach

This paper examines the determinants of CDS spreads and potential spillover effects for Eurozone countries during the recent financial crisis in the EU. We employ a Panel Vector Autoregressive (PVAR) model which combines the advantages of traditional VAR modelling with those of a panel-data approach. In addition to variables that proxy for global and financial market spread determinants we also employ variables that proxy for behavioral determinants. We find that the determinants of CDS variance are neither uniform nor stable during different periods and different countries. For instance, as we move from 2008 to 2014 the impact of the slope of the term structure on CDS spread variance is increasing for peripheral countries such as Spain, Portugal, Italy, Greece, Ireland, and decreasing for core countries such as Germany, France, Netherlands, Belgium and Austria. Other findings indicate that investor sentiment was an important CDS spread determinant during the subprime crisis, along with other factors, while spillover effects run from larger peripheral economies such as Spain and Italy to core countries; spillover effects from Portugal, Greece, and Ireland are of minor importance

The impact of conventional and unconventional monetary policy on expectations and sentiment

This paper offers, evidence on the effect of ECB’s conventional and unconventional monetary policy on economic expectations in Euro-area countries during the US and EU crisis. We employ a range of research methodologies in a sample of nine Eurozone countries and combine expectations/sentiment indicators with a set of macroeconomic and financial variables. We find that ECB’s conventional monetary policy (and Fed’s monetary policy stance) has a positive and significant effect on economic expectations for Core Eurozone countries and a weak effect on Peripheral Eurozone countries. ECB’s unconventional policy measures, however, have a negative effect on Core countries’ economic expectations. This result is robust to different methodologies (PVAR, QVAR, FAVAR) and different datasets. Overall, our findings highlight the importance of monetary policy in the determination of economic expectations