Evaluating the ecological realism of plant species distribution models with ecological indicator values

Species distribution models (SDMs) are routinely applied to assess current as well as future species distributions, for example to assess impacts of future environmental change on biodiversity or to underpin conservation planning. It has been repeatedly emphasized that SDMs should be evaluated based not only on their goodness of fit to the data, but also on the realism of the modelled ecological responses. However, possibilities for the latter are hampered by limited knowledge on the true responses as well as a lack of quantitative evaluation methods. Here we compared modelled niche optima obtained from European-scale SDMs of 1,476 terrestrial vascular plant species with empirical ecological indicator values indicating the preferences of plant species for key environmental conditions. For each plant species we first fitted an ensemble SDM including three modeling techniques (GLM, GAM and BRT) and extracted niche optima for climate, soil, land use and nitrogen deposition variables with a large explanatory power for the occurrence of that species. We then compared these SDM-derived niche optima with the ecological indicator values by means of bivariate correlation analysis. We found weak to moderate correlations in the expected direction between the SDM-derived niche optima and ecological indicator values. The strongest correlation occurred between the modelled optima for growing degree days and the ecological indicator values for temperature. Correlations were weaker for SDM-derived niche optima with a more distal relationship to ecological indicator values (notably precipitation and soil moisture). Further, correlations were consistently highest for BRT, followed by GLM and GAM. Our method gives insight into the ecological realism of modelled niche optima and projected core habitats and can be used to improve SDMs by making a more informed selection of environmental variables and modeling techniques

Cisternal Organization of the Endoplasmic Reticulum during Mitosis

The endoplasmic reticulum (ER) of animal cells is a single, dynamic, and continuous membrane network of interconnected cisternae and tubules spread out throughout the cytosol in direct contact with the nuclear envelope. During mitosis, the nuclear envelope undergoes a major rearrangement, as it rapidly partitions its membrane-bound contents into the ER. It is therefore of great interest to determine whether any major transformation in the architecture of the ER also occurs during cell division. We present structural evidence, from rapid, live-cell, three-dimensional imaging with confirmation from high-resolution electron microscopy tomography of samples preserved by high-pressure freezing and freeze substitution, unambiguously showing that from prometaphase to telophase of mammalian cells, most of the ER is organized as extended cisternae, with a very small fraction remaining organized as tubules. In contrast, during interphase, the ER displays the familiar reticular network of convolved cisternae linked to tubules

Testing Hardy nonlocality proof with genuine energy-time entanglement

We show two experimental realizations of Hardy ladder test of quantum nonlocality using energy-time correlated photons, following the scheme proposed by A. Cabello \emph{et al.} [Phys. Rev. Lett. \textbf{102}, 040401 (2009)]. Unlike, previous energy-time Bell experiments, these tests require precise tailored nonmaximally entangled states. One of them is equivalent to the two-setting two-outcome Bell test requiring a minimum detection efficiency. The reported experiments are still affected by the locality and detection loopholes, but are free of the post-selection loophole of previous energy-time and time-bin Bell tests.Comment: 5 pages, revtex4, 6 figure

Human Impacts on Forest Biodiversity in Protected Walnut-Fruit Forests in Kyrgyzstan

We used a spatially explicit model of forest dynamics, supported by empirical field data and socioeconomic data, to examine the impacts of human disturbances on a protected forest landscape in Kyrgyzstan. Local use of 27 fruit and nut species was recorded and modeled. Results indicated that in the presence of fuelwood cutting with or without grazing, species of high socioeconomic impor- tance such as Juglans regia, Malus spp., and Armeniaca vulgaris were largely eliminated from the landscape after 50–150 yr. In the absence of disturbance or in the presence of grazing only, decline of these species occurred at a much lower rate, owing to competi- tive interactions between tree species. This suggests that the current intensity of fuelwood harvesting is not sustainable. Conversely, cur- rent grazing intensities were found to have relatively little impact on forest structure and composition, and could potentially play a positive role in supporting regeneration of tree species. These results indicate that both positive and negative impacts on biodiversity can arise from human populations living within a protected area. Potentially, these could be reconciled through the development of participatory approaches to conservation management within this reserve, to ensure the maintenance of its high conservation value while meeting human needs

Aquatic community response to volcanic eruptions on the Ecuadorian Andean flank: evidence from the palaeoecological record

Aquatic ecosystems in the tropical Andes are under increasing pressure from human modification of the landscape (deforestation and dams) and climatic change (increase of extreme events and 1.5 °C on average temperatures are projected for AD 2100). However, the resilience of these ecosystems to perturbations is poorly understood. Here we use a multi-proxy palaeoecological approach to assess the response of aquatic ecosystems to a major mechanism for natural disturbance, volcanic ash deposition. Specifically, we present data from two Neotropical lakes located on the eastern Andean flank of Ecuador. Laguna Pindo (1°27.132′S–78°04.847′W) is a tectonically formed closed basin surrounded by a dense mid-elevation forest, whereas Laguna Baños (0°19.328′S–78°09.175′W) is a glacially formed lake with an inflow and outflow in high Andean Páramo grasslands. In each lake we examined the dynamics of chironomids and other aquatic and semi-aquatic organisms to explore the effect of thick (> 5 cm) volcanic deposits on the aquatic communities in these two systems with different catchment features. In both lakes past volcanic ash deposition was evident from four large tephras dated to c.850 cal year BP (Pindo), and 4600, 3600 and 1500 cal year BP (Baños). Examination of the chironomid and aquatic assemblages before and after the ash depositions revealed no shift in composition at Pindo, but a major change at Baños occurred after the last event around 1500 cal year BP. Chironomids at Baños changed from an assemblage dominated by Pseudochironomus and Polypedilum nubifer-type to Cricotopus/Paratrichocladius type-II, and such a dominance lasted for approximately 380 years. We suggest that, despite potential changes in the water chemistry, the major effect on the chironomid community resulted from the thickness of the tephra being deposited, which acted to shallow the water body beyond a depth threshold. Changes in the aquatic flora and fauna at the base of the trophic chain can promote cascade effects that may deteriorate the ecosystem, especially when already influenced by human activities, such as deforestation and dams, which is frequent in the high Andes

Bayesian classification of vegetation types with Gaussian mixture density fitting to indicator values.

Question: Is it possible to mathematically classify relevés into vegetation types on the basis of their average indicator values, including the uncertainty of the classification? Location: The Netherlands. Method: A large relevé database was used to develop a method for predicting vegetation types based on indicator values. First, each relevé was classified into a phytosociological association on the basis of its species composition. Additionally, mean indicator values for moisture, nutrients and acidity were computed for each relevé. Thus, the position of each classified relevé was obtained in a three-dimensional space of indicator values. Fitting the data to so called Gaussian Mixture Models yielded densities of associations as a function of indicator values. Finally, these density functions were used to predict the Bayesian occurrence probabilities of associations for known indicator values. Validation of predictions was performed by using a randomly chosen half of the database for the calibration of densities and the other half for the validation of predicted associations. Results and Conclusions: With indicator values, most relevés were classified correctly into vegetation types at the association level. This was shown using confusion matrices that relate (1) the number of relevés classified into associations based on species composition to (2) those based on indicator values. Misclassified relevés belonged to ecologically similar associations. The method seems very suitable for predictive vegetation models

Arithmetic Veech sublattices of \SL(2,\Z)

We prove that every algebraic curve X defined over the algebraic closure of the rationals is birational over the complex numbers to a Teichmuller curve.Comment: version 2. Substantial changes including the title. To appear in Duke J. of Math. 12 page

Ecology good, aut-ecology better; Improving the sustainability of designed plantings

© 2015 European Council of Landscape Architecture Schools (ECLAS). This paper explores how contemporary ecological science, and aut-ecology in particular, can improve the sustainability of designed vegetation. It is proposed that ecological understanding can be applied to design at three levels: 1) as representation, 2) as process, and 3) as aut-ecology, representing a gradient from the least to the most profound. Key ecological interactions that determine the success of designed plantings are explored via a review of relevant ecological research, challenging some widely held but unhelpful constructs about how both semi-natural and designed vegetation actually function. The paper concludes that there are real benefits to integrating aut-ecological understanding in the design of vegetation at all scales but that this will require ecological theory to be taught as a design toolkit rather than largely as descriptive knowledge

Prematurity and respiratory outcomes program (PROP): Study protocol of a prospective multicenter study of respiratory outcomes of preterm infants in the United States

Background With improved survival rates, short- and long-term respiratory complications of premature birth are increasing, adding significantly to financial and health burdens in the United States. In response, in May 2010, the National Institutes of Health (NIH) and the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI) funded a 5-year $18.5 million research initiative to ultimately improve strategies for managing the respiratory complications of preterm and low birth weight infants. Using a collaborative, multi-disciplinary structure, the resulting Prematurity and Respiratory Outcomes Program (PROP) seeks to understand factors that correlate with future risk for respiratory morbidity. Methods/Design The PROP is an observational prospective cohort study performed by a consortium of six clinical centers (incorporating tertiary neonatal intensive care units [NICU] at 13 sites) and a data-coordinating center working in collaboration with the NHLBI. Each clinical center contributes subjects to the study, enrolling infants with gestational ages 23 0/7 to 28 6/7 weeks with an anticipated target of 750 survivors at 36 weeks post-menstrual age. In addition, each center brings specific areas of scientific focus to the Program. The primary study hypothesis is that in survivors of extreme prematurity specific biologic, physiologic and clinical data predicts respiratory morbidity between discharge and 1 year corrected age. Analytic statistical methodology includes model-based and non-model-based analyses, descriptive analyses and generalized linear mixed models. Discussion PROP incorporates aspects of NICU care to develop objective biomarkers and outcome measures of respiratory morbidity in the <29 week gestation population beyond just the NICU hospitalization, thereby leading to novel understanding of the nature and natural history of neonatal lung disease and of potential mechanistic and therapeutic targets in at-risk subjects

Impediments to eye transplantation: Ocular viability following optic-nerve transection or enucleation

Maintenance of ocular viability is one of the major impediments to successful whole-eye transplantation. This review provides a comprehensive understanding of the current literature to help guide future studies in order to overcome this hurdle. A systematic multistage review of published literature was performed. Three specific questions were addressed: (1) Is recovery of visual function following eye transplantation greater in cold-blooded vertebrates when compared with mammals? (2) Is outer retina function following enucleation and reperfusion improved compared with enucleation alone? (3) Following optic-nerve transection, is there a correlation between retinal ganglion cell (RGC) survival and either time after transection or proximity of the transection to the globe? In a majority of the studies performed in the literature, recovery of visual function can occur after whole-eye transplantation in cold-blooded vertebrates. Following enucleation (and reperfusion), outer retinal function is maintained from 4 to 9 h. RGC survival following optic-nerve transection is inversely related to both the time since transection and the proximity of transection to the globe. Lastly, neurotrophins can increase RGC survival following optic-nerve transection. This review of the literature suggests that the use of a donor eye is feasible for whole-eye transplantation.published_or_final_versio