Assessing micro- vs macro-costing approaches for treating appendicitis in children with appendicectomy or non-operatively

OBJECTIVES: We conducted a health economic sub-study within a feasibility RCT comparing a non-operative treatment pathway as an alternative to appendicectomy for the treatment of uncomplicated acute appendicitis in children. The objectives were to understand and assess data collection tools and methods and to determine indicative costs and benefits assessing the feasibility of conducting a full economic evaluation within the definitive trial. METHODS: We compared different methods of estimating treatment costs including micro-costing, hospital administrative data (PLICS) and health system (NHS) reference costs. We compared two different HRQoL instruments (CHU-9D and EQ-5D-5L) in terms of data completeness and sensitivity to change over time, including potential ceiling effects. We also explored how the timing of data collection and duration of the analysis could affect QALYs (Quality Adjusted Life Years) and the results of the cost-utility analysis (CUA) within the future RCT. RESULTS: Using a micro-costing approach, the total per treatment costs were in alignment with hospital administrative data (PLICS). Average health system reference cost data (macro-costing using NHS costs) could potentially underestimate these treatment costs, particularly for non-operative treatment. Costs incurred following hospital discharge in the primary care setting were minimal, and limited family borne costs were reported by parents/carers. While both HRQoL instruments performed relatively well, our results highlight the problem of ceiling effect and the importance of the timing of data collection and the duration of the analysis in any future assessment using QALYs and CUA. CONCLUSIONS: We highlighted the importance of obtaining accurate individual-patient cost data when conducting economic evaluations. Our results suggest that timing of data collection and duration of the assessment are important considerations when evaluating cost-effectiveness and reporting cost per QALY. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN15830435

Credit constraints and spillovers from foreign firms in China

This paper examines whether credit constraints affect Chinese firms’ absorption of productivity spillovers originating from the activity of foreign-owned firms. Using firm-level data for 2001–2005, we find evidence of positive spillovers originating from foreign-owned firms from countries other than Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan for non-state owned Chinese firms operating in the same industry and province. Using an index of external finance dependence to measure credit constraints, we find that only non-state-owned firms operating in industries with external finance dependence below the index median exhibit significantly positive spillovers from the activity of foreign firms

Classic ketogenic diet versus further antiseizure medicine in infants with drug-resistant epilepsy (KIWE): a UK, multicentre, open-label, randomised clinical trial

BACKGROUND: Many infancy-onset epilepsies have poor prognosis for seizure control and neurodevelopmental outcome. Ketogenic diets can improve seizures in children older than 2 years and adults who are unresponsive to antiseizure medicines. We aimed to establish the efficacy of a classic ketogenic diet at reducing seizure frequency compared with further antiseizure medicine in infants with drug-resistant epilepsy. METHODS: In this phase 4, open-label, multicentre, randomised clinical trial, infants aged 1-24 months with drug-resistant epilepsy (defined as four or more seizures per week and two or more previous antiseizure medications) were recruited from 19 hospitals in the UK. Following a 1-week or 2-week observation period, participants were randomly assigned using a computer-generated schedule, without stratification, to either a classic ketogenic diet or a further antiseizure medication for 8 weeks. Treatment allocation was masked from research nurses involved in patient care, but not from participants. The primary outcome was the median number of seizures per day, recorded during weeks 6-8. All analyses were by modified intention to treat, which included all participants with available data. Participants were followed for up to 12 months. All serious adverse events were recorded. The trial is registered with the European Union Drug Regulating Authorities Clinical Trials Database (2013-002195-40). The trial was terminated early before all participants had reached 12 months of follow-up because of slow recruitment and end of funding. FINDINGS: Between Jan 1, 2015, and Sept 30, 2021, 155 infants were assessed for eligibility, of whom 136 met inclusion criteria and were randomly assigned; 75 (55%) were male and 61 (45%) were female. 78 infants were assigned to a ketogenic diet and 58 to antiseizure medication, of whom 61 and 47, respectively, had available data and were included in the modifified intention-to-treat analysis at week 8. The median number of seizures per day during weeks 6-8, accounting for baseline rate and randomised group, was similar between the ketogenic diet group (5 [IQR 1-16]) and antiseizure medication group (3 [IQR 2-11]; IRR 1·33, 95% CI 0·84-2·11). A similar number of infants with at least one serious adverse event was reported in both groups (40 [51%] of 78 participants in the ketogenic diet group and 26 [45%] of 58 participants in the antiseizure medication group). The most common serious adverse events were seizures in both groups. Three infants died during the trial, all of whom were randomly assigned a ketogenic diet: one child (who also had dystonic cerebral palsy) was found not breathing at home; one child died suddenly and unexpectedly at home; and one child went into cardiac arrest during routine surgery under anaesthetic. The deaths were judged unrelated to treatment by local principal investigators and confirmed by the data safety monitoring committee. INTERPRETATION: In this phase 4 trial, a ketogenic diet did not differ in efficacy and tolerability to a further antiseizure medication, and it appears to be safe to use in infants with drug-resistant epilepsy. A ketogenic diet could be a treatment option in infants whose seizures continue despite previously trying two antiseizure medications. FUNDING: National Institute for Health and Care Research

Long-term exposure to chemicals in sewage sludge fertilizer alters liver lipid content in females and cancer marker expression in males

This work was supported by the SRF Academic Scholarship Award 2013 (to PAF, PJOS, PF), the Wellcome Trust (080388 to PAF, CC, SMR, RMS, NPE) and the European Community’s Seventh Framework Programme (FP7 ⁄ 2007-2013 to PAF, SMR, CC) under grant agreement no 212885. The authors would like to thank Ms Margaret Fraser and the Proteomics Core Facility at the University of Aberdeen and Ms Carol E. Kyle and as Dr Stewart Rhind (deceased) at James Hutton Institute, Aberdeen, for their important contributions to this study. Supplementary material and research data are available at https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2019.01.003Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Health benefits, costs, and cost-effectiveness of earlier eligibility for adult antiretroviral therapy and expanded treatment coverage: a combined analysis of 12 mathematical models.

BACKGROUND: New WHO guidelines recommend ART initiation for HIV-positive persons with CD4 cell counts ≤500 cells/µL, a higher threshold than was previously recommended. Country decision makers must consider whether to further expand ART eligibility accordingly. METHODS: We used multiple independent mathematical models in four settings-South Africa, Zambia, India, and Vietnam-to evaluate the potential health impact, costs, and cost-effectiveness of different adult ART eligibility criteria under scenarios of current and expanded treatment coverage, with results projected over 20 years. Analyses considered extending eligibility to include individuals with CD4 ≤500 cells/µL or all HIV-positive adults, compared to the previous recommendation of initiation with CD4 ≤350 cells/µL. We assessed costs from a health system perspective, and calculated the incremental cost per DALY averted ($/DALY) to compare competing strategies. Strategies were considered 'very cost-effective' if the$/DALY was less than the country's per capita gross domestic product (GDP; South Africa: $8040, Zambia:$1425, India: $1489, Vietnam:$1407) and 'cost-effective' if $/DALY was less than three times per capita GDP. FINDINGS: In South Africa, the cost per DALY averted of extending ART eligibility to CD4 ≤500 cells/µL ranged from$237 to $1691/DALY compared to 2010 guidelines; in Zambia, expanded eligibility ranged from improving health outcomes while reducing costs (i.e. dominating current guidelines) to$749/DALY. Results were similar in scenarios with substantially expanded treatment access and for expanding eligibility to all HIV-positive adults. Expanding treatment coverage in the general population was therefore found to be cost-effective. In India, eligibility for all HIV-positive persons ranged from $131 to$241/DALY and in Vietnam eligibility for CD4 ≤500 cells/µL cost $290/DALY. In concentrated epidemics, expanded access among key populations was also cost-effective. INTERPRETATION: Earlier ART eligibility is estimated to be very cost-effective in low- and middle-income settings, although these questions should be revisited as further information becomes available. Scaling-up ART should be considered among other high-priority health interventions competing for health budgets. FUNDING: The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and World Health Organization

Autism and Intellectual Disability Are Differentially Related to Sociodemographic Background at Birth

Background: Research findings investigating the sociodemographics of autism spectrum disorder (ASD) have been inconsistent and rarely considered the presence of intellectual disability (ID). Methods: We used population data on Western Australian singletons born from 1984 to 1999 (n = 398,353) to examine the sociodemographic characteristics of children diagnosed with ASD with or without ID, or ID without ASD compared with non-affected children. Results: The profiles for the four categories examined, mild-moderate ID, severe ID, ASD without ID and ASD with ID varied considerably and we often identified a gradient effect where the risk factors for mild-moderate ID and ASD without ID were at opposite extremes while those for ASD with ID were intermediary. This was demonstrated clearly with increased odds of ASD without ID amongst older mothers aged 35 years and over (odds ratio (OR) = 1.69 [CI: 1.18, 2.43]), first born infants (OR = 2.78; [CI: 1.67, 4.54]), male infants (OR = 6.57 [CI: 4.87, 8.87]) and increasing socioeconomic advantage. In contrast, mild-moderate ID was associated with younger mothers aged less than 20 years (OR = 1.88 [CI: 1.57, 2.25]), paternal age greater than 40 years (OR = 1.59 [CI: 1.36, 1.86]), Australian-born and Aboriginal mothers (OR = 1.60 [CI: 1.41, 1.82]), increasing birth order and increasing social disadvantage (OR = 2.56 [CI: 2.27, 2.97]). Mothers of infants residing in regional or remote areas had consistently lower risk of ASD or ID and may be linked to reduced access to services or underascertainment rather than a protective effect of location. Conclusions: The different risk profiles observed between groups may be related to aetiological differences or ascertainment factors or both. Untangling these pathways is challenging but an urgent public health priority in view of the supposed autism epidemic

Abstracts from the NIHR INVOLVE Conference 2017

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Multiple novel prostate cancer susceptibility signals identified by fine-mapping of known risk loci among Europeans

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified numerous common prostate cancer (PrCa) susceptibility loci. We have fine-mapped 64 GWAS regions known at the conclusion of the iCOGS study using large-scale genotyping and imputation in 25 723 PrCa cases and 26 274 controls of European ancestry. We detected evidence for multiple independent signals at 16 regions, 12 of which contained additional newly identified significant associations. A single signal comprising a spectrum of correlated variation was observed at 39 regions; 35 of which are now described by a novel more significantly associated lead SNP, while the originally reported variant remained as the lead SNP only in 4 regions. We also confirmed two association signals in Europeans that had been previously reported only in East-Asian GWAS. Based on statistical evidence and linkage disequilibrium (LD) structure, we have curated and narrowed down the list of the most likely candidate causal variants for each region. Functional annotation using data from ENCODE filtered for PrCa cell lines and eQTL analysis demonstrated significant enrichment for overlap with bio-features within this set. By incorporating the novel risk variants identified here alongside the refined data for existing association signals, we estimate that these loci now explain ∼38.9% of the familial relative risk of PrCa, an 8.9% improvement over the previously reported GWAS tag SNPs. This suggests that a significant fraction of the heritability of PrCa may have been hidden during the discovery phase of GWAS, in particular due to the presence of multiple independent signals within the same regio