Participatory analysis for adaptation to climate change in Mediterranean agricultural systems: possible choices in process design (versão Pre Print)

There is an increasing call for local measures to adapt to climate change, based on foresight analyses in collaboration with actors. However, such analyses involve many challenges, particularly because the actors concerned may not consider climate change to be an urgent concern. This paper examines the methodological choices made by three research teams in the design and implementation of participatory foresight analyses to explore agricultural and water management options for adaptation to climate change. Case studies were conducted in coastal areas of France, Morocco, and Portugal where the groundwater is intensively used for irrigation, the aquifers are at risk or are currently overexploited, and a serious agricultural crisis is underway. When designing the participatory processes, the researchers had to address four main issues: whether to avoid or prepare dialogue between actors whose relations may be limited or tense; how to select participants and get them involved; how to facilitate discussion of issues that the actors may not initially consider to be of great concern; and finally, how to design and use scenarios. In each case, most of the invited actors responded and met to discuss and evaluate a series of scenarios. Strategies were discussed at different levels, from farming practices to aquifer management. It was shown that such participatory analyses can be implemented in situations which may initially appear to be unfavourable. This was made possible by the flexibility in the methodological choices, in particular the possibility of framing the climate change issue in a broader agenda for discussion with the actors

A set of indicators for decomposing the secular increase of life expectancy

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: The ongoing increase in life expectancy in developed countries is associated with changes in the shape of the survival curve. These changes can be characterized by two main, distinct components: (i) the decline in premature mortality, i.e., the concentration of deaths around some high value of the mean age at death, also termed rectangularization of the survival curve; and (ii) the increase of this mean age at death, i.e., longevity, which directly reflects the reduction of mortality at advanced ages. Several recent observations suggest that both mechanisms are simultaneously taking place. METHODS: We propose a set of indicators aiming to quantify, disentangle, and compare the respective contribution of rectangularization and longevity increase to the secular increase of life expectancy. These indicators, based on a nonparametric approach, are easy to implement. RESULTS: We illustrate the method with the evolution of the Swiss mortality data between 1876 and 2006. Using our approach, we are able to say that the increase in longevity and rectangularization explain each about 50% of the secular increase of life expectancy. CONCLUSION: Our method may provide a useful tool to assess whether the contribution of rectangularization to the secular increase of life expectancy will remain around 50% or whether it will be increasing in the next few years, and thus whether concentration of mortality will eventually take place against some ultimate biological limit

Comparative effectiveness of lifestyle interventions on cardiovascular risk factors among a Dutch overweight working population: A randomized controlled trial

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Overweight (Body Mass Index [BMI] ≥ 25 kg/m²) and obesity (BMI≥ 30 kg/m²) are associated with increased cardiovascular risk, posing a considerable burden to public health. The main aim of this study was to investigate lifestyle intervention effects on cardiovascular risk factors in healthy overweight employees.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Participants were 276 healthy overweight employees (69.2% male; mean age 44.0 years [SD 9.2]; mean BMI 29.7 kg/m²[SD 3.1]). They were randomized to one of two intervention groups receiving a six month lifestyle intervention with behavior counseling by phone (phone group) or e-mail (Internet group), or to a control group receiving usual care. Body weight, height, waist circumference, sum of skinfolds, blood pressure, total cholesterol level and predicted aerobic fitness were measured at baseline, at 6 and at 24 months. Regression analyses included the 141 participants with complete data.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>At 6 months a significant favorable effect on total cholesterol level (-0.2 mmol/l, 95%CI -0.5 to -0.0) was observed in the phone group and a trend for improved aerobic fitness (1.9 ml/kg/min, 95%CI -0.2 to 3.9) in the Internet group. At two years, favorable trends for body weight (-2.1 kg, 95%CI -4.4 to 0.2) and aerobic fitness (2.3 ml/kg/min, 95%CI -0.2 to 4.8) were observed in the Internet group.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The intervention effects were independent of the used communication mode. However short-term results were in favor of the phone group and long-term results in favor of the internet group. Thus, we found limited evidence for our lifestyle intervention to be effective in reducing cardiovascular risk in a group of apparently healthy overweight workers.</p> <p>Trial registration</p> <p><a href="http://www.controlled-trials.com/ISRCTN04265725">ISRCTN04265725</a></p

Contrasting futures for ocean and society from different anthropogenic CO2 emissions scenarios

The ocean moderates anthropogenic climate change at the cost of profound alterations of its physics, chemistry, ecology, and services. Here, we evaluate and compare the risks of impacts on marine and coastal ecosystems and the goods and services they provide for growing cumulative carbon emissions under two contrasting emissions scenarios. The current emissions trajectory would rapidly and significantly alter many ecosystems and the associated services on which humans heavily depend. A reduced emissions scenario consistent with the Copenhagen Accord’s goal of a global temperature increase of less than 2°C—is much more favorable to the ocean but still substantially alters important marine ecosystems and associated goods and services. The management options to address ocean impacts narrow as the ocean warms and acidifies. Consequently, any new climate regime that fails to minimize ocean impacts would be incomplete and inadequate

Increasing efficacy of primary care-based counseling for diabetes prevention: Rationale and design of the ADAPT (Avoiding Diabetes Thru Action Plan Targeting) trial

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Studies have shown that lifestyle behavior changes are most effective to prevent onset of diabetes in high-risk patients. Primary care providers are charged with encouraging behavior change among their patients at risk for diabetes, yet the practice environment and training in primary care often do not support effective provider counseling. The goal of this study is to develop an electronic health record-embedded tool to facilitate shared patient-provider goal setting to promote behavioral change and prevent diabetes.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The ADAPT (Avoiding Diabetes Thru Action Plan Targeting) trial leverages an innovative system that integrates evidence-based interventions for behavioral change with already-existing technology to enhance primary care providers' effectiveness to counsel about lifestyle behavior changes. Using principles of behavior change theory, the multidisciplinary design team utilized in-depth interviews and <it>in vivo </it>usability testing to produce a prototype diabetes prevention counseling system embedded in the electronic health record.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The core element of the tool is a streamlined, shared goal-setting module within the electronic health record system. The team then conducted a series of innovative, "near-live" usability testing simulations to refine the tool and enhance workflow integration. The system also incorporates a pre-encounter survey to elicit patients' behavior-change goals to help tailor patient-provider goal setting during the clinical encounter and to encourage shared decision making. Lastly, the patients interact with a website that collects their longitudinal behavior data and allows them to visualize their progress over time and compare their progress with other study members. The finalized ADAPT system is now being piloted in a small randomized control trial of providers using the system with prediabetes patients over a six-month period.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The ADAPT system combines the influential powers of shared goal setting and feedback, tailoring, modeling, contracting, reminders, and social comparisons to integrate evidence-based behavior-change principles into the electronic health record to maximize provider counseling efficacy during routine primary care clinical encounters. If successful, the ADAPT system may represent an adaptable and scalable technology-enabled behavior-change tool for all primary care providers.</p> <p>Trial Registration</p> <p>ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier <a href="http://www.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT01473654">NCT01473654</a></p

Small business owners' health and safety intentions: A cross-sectional survey

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the variables underlying small business owners' behavioural intentions toward workplace health and safety. This project explores the relationship between three mediating variables (Attitude Toward Safety, Subjective Norm and Perceived Behavioural Control) and owners' Intentions Toward Safety, following the Theory of Planned Behaviour. We also investigate the role of beliefs underlying each mediating variable. METHODS: Seven hundred businesses (5–50 employees) were randomly selected from 4084 eligible companies in a manufacturing business database (SIC codes 24 to 39). The 348 respondents are on average 51 yrs of age, 86% male, 96% white and have 2 to 4 years of post-secondary school. RESULTS: All three mediator variables are significantly correlated with Intentions Toward Safety; Attitude Toward Safety shows the strongest correlation, which is confirmed by path analysis. Owners with higher attitudes toward safety have a higher probability of believing that improving workplace health and safety will make employees' healthier and happier, show that they care, increase employee productivity, lower workers' compensation costs, increase product quality and lower costs. CONCLUSION: These results suggest that interventions aimed at increasing owners' health and safety intentions (and thus, behaviours) should focus on demonstrating positive employee health and product quality outcomes

Deep reefs of the Great Barrier Reef offer limited thermal refuge during mass coral bleaching

Our rapidly warming climate is threatening coral reefs as thermal anomalies trigger mass coral bleaching events. Deep (or "mesophotic") coral reefs are hypothesised to act as major ecological refuges from mass bleaching, but empirical assessments are limited. We evaluated the potential of mesophotic reefs within the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) and adjacent Coral Sea to act as thermal refuges by characterising long-term temperature conditions and assessing impacts during the 2016 mass bleaching event. We found that summer upwelling initially provided thermal relief at upper mesophotic depths (40 m), but then subsided resulting in anomalously warm temperatures even at depth. Bleaching impacts on the deep reefs were severe (40% bleached and 6% dead colonies at 40 m) but significantly lower than at shallower depths (60-69% bleached and 8-12% dead at 5-25 m). While we confirm that deep reefs can offer refuge from thermal stress, we highlight important caveats in terms of the transient nature of the protection and their limited ability to provide broad ecological refuge.XL Catlin Seaview Survey; Waitt Foundation; XL Catlin Group; Underwater Earth; University of Queensland; ARC Discovery Early Career Researcher Award (DECRA) [DE160101433]; Portuguese Science and Technology Foundation (FCT) [SFRH/BPD/110285/2015]; Australian Research Council (ARC

Recommendations to facilitate the ideal fit note: are they achievable in practice?

Background: Although the UK fit note has been broadly welcomed as a tool to facilitate return to work, difficulties and uncertainties have resulted in wide variation in its use. Agreement on what constitutes the ‘ideal’ fit note from the perspective of all stakeholders is needed to inform best practice. A recent Delphi study conducted by the authors reached consensus on 67 recommendations for best practice in fit note use for employed patients. However, such recommendations are not necessarily followed in practice. The purpose of this study was therefore to investigate the perceived achievability of implementing these Delphi recommendations with a further reference panel of stakeholders. Methods: Potential participants were identified by the research team and study steering group. These included representatives of employers, government departments, trades unions, patient organisations, general and medical practitioners and occupational health organisations who were believed to have the knowledge and experience to comment on the recommendations. The consensus Delphi statements were presented to the participants on-line. Participants were invited to comment on whether the recommendations were achievable, and what might hinder or facilitate their use in practice. Free text comments were combined with comments made in the Delphi study that referred to issues of feasibility or practicality. These were synthesised and analysed thematically. Results: Twelve individuals representing a range of stakeholder groups participated. Many of the recommendations were considered achievable, such as improved format and use of the electronic fit note, completion of all fields, better application and revision of guidance and education in fit note use. However a number of obstacles to implementation were identified. These included: legislation governing the fit note and GP contracts; the costs and complexity of IT systems and software; the limitations of the GP consultation; unclear roles and responsibilities for the funding and delivery of education, guidance and training for all stakeholders, and the evaluation of practice. Conclusions: This study demonstrated that although many recommendations for the ideal fit note are considered achievable, there are considerable financial, legal, organisational and professional obstacles to be overcome in order for the recommendations to be implemented successfully