Can we trust “Magnitude-based inference”?

Since the times and works of William Sealy Gosset (1876-1937) and Ronald Aylmer Fisher (1890-1962), imperfections of conventional null-hypothesis significance testing and in particular, use of P-values to evaluate such testing (invariably referred to as inferential statistics), have been well recognised (Wilkinson, 1999; Wasserstein and Lazar, 2016). Attempts have been made to identify alternatives. For example, Cohen's effect sizes (Cohen 1988) and region of practical equivalence procedure (ROPE) (Kruschke, 2014). A more recent alternative is magnitude-based inference (MBI) (Hopkins and Baterham, 2016) although unlike others, MBI has created considerable controversy when reporting the results of studies (almost exclusively used in the field of sport and exercise science). Instead of defining research effects as “significant” based on P-values (using traditional hypothesis testing), MBI uses terms such as “implementable” and “substantial” based on two constraints called the “risk of harm” and the “chance of benefit”. However, concerns have been raised about the MBI approach. Stanford statistician Kristin Sainani was so concerned about the consequences of using MBI that she wrote a formal analysis of the MBI method. Published in MSSE (Sainani, 2018) her paper showed that, depending on sample size and thresholds for harm/benefit, MBI produces false positive rates that can be two to six times greater than those using traditional hypothesis testing. A finding, she claims, that makes MBI less reliable.Published versio

A grammar-based distance metric enables fast and accurate clustering of large sets of 16S sequences

Background: We propose a sequence clustering algorithm and compare the partition quality and execution time of the proposed algorithm with those of a popular existing algorithm. The proposed clustering algorithm uses a grammar-based distance metric to determine partitioning for a set of biological sequences. The algorithm performs clustering in which new sequences are compared with cluster-representative sequences to determine membership. If comparison fails to identify a suitable cluster, a new cluster is created. Results: The performance of the proposed algorithm is validated via comparison to the popular DNA/RNA sequence clustering approach, CD-HIT-EST, and to the recently developed algorithm, UCLUST, using two different sets of 16S rDNA sequences from 2,255 genera. The proposed algorithm maintains a comparable CPU execution time with that of CD-HIT-EST which is much slower than UCLUST, and has successfully generated clusters with higher statistical accuracy than both CD-HIT-EST and UCLUST. The validation results are especially striking for large datasets. Conclusions: We introduce a fast and accurate clustering algorithm that relies on a grammar-based sequence distance. Its statistical clustering quality is validated by clustering large datasets containing 16S rDNA sequences

Potential role of ticks as vectors of bluetongue virus

When the first outbreak of bluetongue virus serotype 8 (BTV8) was recorded in North-West Europe in August 2006 and renewed outbreaks occurred in the summer of 2007 and again in 2008, the question was raised how the virus survived the winter. Since most adult Culicoides vector midges are assumed not to survive the northern European winter, and transovarial transmission in Culicoides is not recorded, we examined the potential vector role of ixodid and argasid ticks for bluetongue virus. Four species of ixodid ticks (Ixodes ricinus, Ixodes hexagonus, Dermacentor reticulatus and Rhipicephalus bursa) and one soft tick species, Ornithodoros savignyi, ingested BTV8-containing blood either through capillary feeding or by feeding on artificial membranes. The virus was taken up by the ticks and was found to pass through the gut barrier and spread via the haemolymph into the salivary glands, ovaries and testes, as demonstrated by real-time reverse transcriptase PCR (PCR-test). BTV8 was detected in various tissues of ixodid ticks for up to 21 days post feeding and in Ornithodoros ticks for up to 26 days. It was found after moulting in adult Ixodes hexagonus and was also able to pass through the ovaries into the eggs of an Ornithodoros savignyi tick. This study demonstrates that ticks can become infected with bluetongue virus serotype 8. The transstadial passage in hard ticks and transovarial passage in soft ticks suggest that ticks have potential vectorial capacity for bluetongue virus. Further studies are required to investigate transmission from infected ticks to domestic livestock. This route of transmission could provide an additional clue in the unresolved mystery of the epidemiology of Bluetongue in Europe by considering ticks as a potential overwintering mechanism for bluetongue virus

The Reproducibility of 31-Phosphorus MRS Measures of Muscle Energetics at 3 Tesla in Trained Men

Magnetic resonance spectroscopy (MRS) provides an exceptional opportunity for the study of in vivo metabolism. MRS is widely used to measure phosphorus metabolites in trained muscle, although there are no published data regarding its reproducibility in this specialized cohort. Thus, the aim of this study was to assess the reproducibility of (31)P-MRS in trained skeletal muscle

An elaborated feeding cycle model for reductions in vectorial capacity of night-biting mosquitoes by insecticide-treated nets

BACKGROUND: Insecticide Treated Nets (ITNs) are an important tool for malaria control. ITNs are effective because they work on several parts of the mosquito feeding cycle, including both adult killing and repelling effects. METHODS: Using an elaborated description of the classic feeding cycle model, simple formulas have been derived to describe how ITNs change mosquito behaviour and the intensity of malaria transmission, as summarized by vectorial capacity and EIR. The predicted changes are illustrated as a function of the frequency of ITN use for four different vector populations using parameter estimates from the literature. RESULTS: The model demonstrates that ITNs simultaneously reduce mosquitoes' lifespans, lengthen the feeding cycle, and by discouraging human biting divert more bites onto non-human hosts. ITNs can substantially reduce vectorial capacity through small changes to all of these quantities. The total reductions in vectorial capacity differ, moreover, depending on baseline behavior in the absence of ITNs. Reductions in lifespan and vectorial capacity are strongest for vector species with high baseline survival. Anthropophilic and zoophilic species are affected differently by ITNs; the feeding cycle is lengthened more for anthrophilic species, and the proportion of bites that are diverted onto non-human hosts is higher for zoophilic species. CONCLUSION: This model suggests that the efficacy of ITNs should be measured as a total reduction in transmission intensity, and that the quantitative effects will differ by species and by transmission intensity. At very high rates of ITN use, ITNs can generate large reductions in transmission intensity that could provide very large reductions in transmission intensity, and effective malaria control in some areas, especially when used in combination with other control measures. At high EIR, ITNs will probably not substantially reduce the parasite rate, but when transmission intensity is low, reductions in vectorial capacity combine with reductions in the parasite rate to generate very large reductions in EIR

Randomised controlled trial of a home-based physical activity intervention in breast cancer survivors

Background: To improve adherence to physical activity (PA), behavioural support in the form of behavioural change counselling may be necessary. However, limited evidence of the effectiveness of home-based PA combined with counselling in breast cancer patients exists. The aim of this current randomised controlled trial with a parallel group design was to evaluate the effectiveness of a home-based PA intervention on PA levels, anthropometric measures, health-related quality of life (HRQoL), and blood biomarkers in breast cancer survivors. Methods: Eighty post-adjuvant therapy invasive breast cancer patients (age = 53.6 ± 9.4 years; height = 161.2 ± 6.8 cm; mass = 68.7 ± 10.5 kg) were randomly allocated to a 6-month home-based PA intervention or usual care. The intervention group received face-to-face and telephone PA counselling aimed at encouraging the achievement of current recommended PA guidelines. All patients were evaluated for our primary outcome, PA (International PA Questionnaire) and secondary outcomes, mass, BMI, body fat %, HRQoL (Functional assessment of Cancer Therapy-Breast), insulin resistance, triglycerides (TG) and total (TC), high-density lipoprotein (HDL-C) and low-density lipoprotein (LDL-C) cholesterol were assessed at baseline and at 6-months. Results: On the basis of linear mixed-model analyses adjusted for baseline values performed on 40 patients in each group, total, leisure and vigorous PA significantly increased from baseline to post-intervention in the intervention compared to usual care (between-group differences, 578.5 MET-min∙wk−1, p = .024, 382.2 MET-min∙wk−1, p = .010, and 264.1 MET-min∙wk−1, p = .007, respectively). Both body mass and BMI decreased significantly in the intervention compared to usual care (between-group differences, −1.6 kg, p = .040, and −.6 kg/m2, p = .020, respectively). Of the HRQoL variables, FACT-Breast, Trial Outcome Index, functional wellbeing, and breast cancer subscale improved significantly in the PA group compared to the usual care group (between-group differences, 5.1, p= .024; 5.6, p = .001; 1.9 p = .025; and 2.8, p=.007, respectively). Finally, TC and LDL-C was significantly reduced in the PA group compared to the usual care group (between-group differences, −.38 mmol∙L−1, p=.001; and −.3 mmol∙L−1, p=.023, respectively). Conclusions: We found that home-based PA resulted in significant albeit small to moderate improvements in selfreported PA, mass, BMI, breast cancer specific HRQoL, and TC and LDL-C compared with usual care

Nutritional and socio-economic factors associated with Plasmodium falciparum infection in children from Equatorial Guinea: results from a nationally representative survey

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Malaria has traditionally been a major endemic disease in Equatorial Guinea. Although parasitaemia prevalence on the insular region has been substantially reduced by vector control in the past few years, the prevalence in the mainland remains over 50% in children younger than five years. The aim of this study is to investigate the risk factors for parasitaemia and treatment seeking behaviour for febrile illness at country level, in order to provide evidence that will reinforce the EG National Malaria Control Programme.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The study was a cross-sectional survey of children 0 to 5 years old, using a multistaged, stratified, cluster-selected sample at the national level. It included a socio-demographic, health and dietary questionnaires, anthropometric measurements, and thick and thin blood smears to determine the <it>Plasmodium </it>infection. A multivariate logistic regression model was used to determine risk factors for parasitaemia, taking into account the cluster design.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The overall prevalence of parasitemia was 50.9%; it was higher in rural (58.8%) compared to urban areas (44.0%, p = 0.06). Age was positively associated with parasitemia (p < 0.0001). In rural areas, risk factors included longer distance to health facilities (p = 0.01) and a low proportion of households with access to protected water in the community (p = 0.02). Having had an episode of cough in the 15 days prior to the survey was inversely related to parasitemia (p = 0.04). In urban areas, the risk factors were stunting (p = 0.005), not having taken colostrum (p = 0.01), and that someone in the household slept under a bed net (p = 0.002); maternal antimalarial medication intake during pregnancy (p = 0.003) and the household socio-economic status (p = 0.0002) were negatively associated with parasitemia. Only 55% of children with fever were taken outside their homes for care, and treatment seeking behaviour differed substantially between rural and urban populations.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Results suggest that a national programme to fight malaria in Equatorial Guinea should take into account the differences between rural and urban communities in relation to risk factors for parasitaemia and treatment seeking behaviour, integrate nutrition programmes, incorporate campaigns on the importance of early treatment, and target appropriately for bed nets to reach the under-fives.</p

Association between preoperative haemoglobin concentration and cardiopulmonary exercise variables: a multicentre study

Background: Preoperative anaemia and low exertional oxygen uptake are both associated with greater postoperative morbidity and mortality. This study reports the association among haemoglobin concentration ([Hb]), peak oxygen uptake (V_O2 peak) and anaerobic threshold (AT) in elective surgical patients. Methods: Between 1999 and 2011, preoperative [Hb] and cardiopulmonary exercise tests were recorded in 1,777 preoperative patients in four hospitals. The associations between [Hb], V_O2 peak and AT were analysed by linear regression and covariance. Results: In 436 (24.5%) patients, [Hb] was <12 g dl-1 and, in 83 of these, <10 g dl-1. Both AT and V_O2 peak rose modestly with increasing [Hb] (r2 = 0.24, P <0.0001 and r2 = 0.30, P <0.0001, respectively). After covariate adjustment, an increase in [Hb] of one standard deviation was associated with a 6.7 to 9.7% increase in V_O2 peak, and a rise of 4.4 to 6.0% in AT. Haemoglobin concentration accounted for 9% and 6% of the variation in V_O2 peak and AT respectively. Conclusions: To a modest extent, lower haemoglobin concentrations are independently associated with lower oxygen uptake during preoperative cardiopulmonary exercise testing. It is unknown whether this association is causative