Inferring transient dynamics of human populations from matrix non-normality

This is the final version of the article. Available from Springer Verlag via the DOI in this record.In our increasingly unstable and unpredictable world, population dynamics rarely settle uniformly to long-term behaviour. However, projecting period-by-period through the preceding fluctuations is more data-intensive and analytically involved than evaluating at equilibrium. To efficiently model populations and best inform policy, we require pragmatic suggestions as to when it is necessary to incorporate short-term transient dynamics and their effect on eventual projected population size. To estimate this need for matrix population modelling, we adopt a linear algebraic quantity known as non-normality. Matrix non-normality is distinct from normality in the Gaussian sense, and indicates the amplificatory potential of the population projection matrix given a particular population vector. In this paper, we compare and contrast three well-regarded metrics of non-normality, which were calculated for over 1000 age-structured human population projection matrices from 42 European countries in the period 1960 to 2014. Non-normality increased over time, mirroring the indices of transient dynamics that peaked around the millennium. By standardising the matrices to focus on transient dynamics and not changes in the asymptotic growth rate, we show that the damping ratio is an uninformative predictor of whether a population is prone to transient booms or busts in its size. These analyses suggest that population ecology approaches to inferring transient dynamics have too often relied on suboptimal analytical tools focussed on an initial population vector rather than the capacity of the life cycle to amplify or dampen transient fluctuations. Finally, we introduce the engineering technique of pseudospectra analysis to population ecology, which, like matrix non-normality, provides a more complete description of the transient fluctuations than the damping ratio. Pseudospectra analysis could further support non-normality assessment to enable a greater understanding of when we might expect transient phases to impact eventual population dynamics.This work was funded by Wellcome Trust New Investigator 103780 to TE, who is also funded by NERC Fellowship NE/J018163/1. JB gratefully acknowledges the ESRC Centre for Population Change ES/K007394/1

Fluids and barriers of the CNS: a historical viewpoint

Tracing the exact origins of modern science can be a difficult but rewarding pursuit. It is possible for the astute reader to follow the background of any subject through the many important surviving texts from the classical and ancient world. While empirical investigations have been described by many since the time of Aristotle and scientific methods have been employed since the Middle Ages, the beginnings of modern science are generally accepted to have originated during the 'scientific revolution' of the 16th and 17th centuries in Europe. The scientific method is so fundamental to modern science that some philosophers consider earlier investigations as 'pre-science'. Notwithstanding this, the insight that can be gained from the study of the beginnings of a subject can prove important in the understanding of work more recently completed. As this journal undergoes an expansion in focus and nomenclature from cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) into all barriers of the central nervous system (CNS), this review traces the history of both the blood-CSF and blood-brain barriers from as early as it was possible to find references, to the time when modern concepts were established at the beginning of the 20th century

The Use of PRV-Bartha to Define Premotor Inputs to Lumbar Motoneurons in the Neonatal Spinal Cord of the Mouse

The neonatal mouse has become a model system for studying the locomotor function of the lumbar spinal cord. However, information about the synaptic connectivity within the governing neural network remains scarce. A neurotropic pseudorabies virus (PRV) Bartha has been used to map neuronal connectivity in other parts of the nervous system, due to its ability to travel trans-neuronally. Its use in spinal circuits regulating locomotion has been limited and no study has defined the time course of labelling for neurons known to project monosynaptically to motoneurons.Here we investigated the ability of PRV Bartha, expressing green and/or red fluorescence, to label spinal neurons projecting monosynaptically to motoneurons of two principal hindlimb muscles, the tibialis anterior (TA) and gastrocnemius (GC). As revealed by combined immunocytochemistry and confocal microscopy, 24-32 h after the viral muscle injection the label was restricted to the motoneuron pool while at 32-40 h the fluorescence was seen in interneurons throughout the medial and lateral ventral grey matter. Two classes of ipsilateral interneurons known to project monosynaptically to motoneurons (Renshaw cells and cells of origin of C-terminals) were consistently labeled at 40 h post-injection but also a group in the ventral grey matter contralaterally. Our results suggest that the labeling of last order interneurons occurred 8-12 h after motoneuron labeling and we presume this is the time taken by the virus to cross one synapse, to travel retrogradely and to replicate in the labeled cells.The study establishes the time window for virally-labelling monosynaptic projections to lumbar motoneurons following viral injection into hindlimb muscles. Moreover, it provides a good foundation for intracellular targeting of the labeled neurons in future physiological studies and better understanding the functional organization of the lumbar neural networks

Breaking Functional Connectivity into Components: A Novel Approach Using an Individual-Based Model, and First Outcomes

Landscape connectivity is a key factor determining the viability of populations in fragmented landscapes. Predicting ‘functional connectivity’, namely whether a patch or a landscape functions as connected from the perspective of a focal species, poses various challenges. First, empirical data on the movement behaviour of species is often scarce. Second, animal-landscape interactions are bound to yield complex patterns. Lastly, functional connectivity involves various components that are rarely assessed separately. We introduce the spatially explicit, individual-based model FunCon as means to distinguish between components of functional connectivity and to assess how each of them affects the sensitivity of species and communities to landscape structures. We then present the results of exploratory simulations over six landscapes of different fragmentation levels and across a range of hypothetical bird species that differ in their response to habitat edges. i) Our results demonstrate that estimations of functional connectivity depend not only on the response of species to edges (avoidance versus penetration into the matrix), the movement mode investigated (home range movements versus dispersal), and the way in which the matrix is being crossed (random walk versus gap crossing), but also on the choice of connectivity measure (in this case, the model output examined). ii) We further show a strong effect of the mortality scenario applied, indicating that movement decisions that do not fully match the mortality risks are likely to reduce connectivity and enhance sensitivity to fragmentation. iii) Despite these complexities, some consistent patterns emerged. For instance, the ranking order of landscapes in terms of functional connectivity was mostly consistent across the entire range of hypothetical species, indicating that simple landscape indices can potentially serve as valuable surrogates for functional connectivity. Yet such simplifications must be carefully evaluated in terms of the components of functional connectivity they actually predict

Molecular biology of the blood-brain and the blood-cerebrospinal fluid barriers: similarities and differences

Efficient processing of information by the central nervous system (CNS) represents an important evolutionary advantage. Thus, homeostatic mechanisms have developed that provide appropriate circumstances for neuronal signaling, including a highly controlled and stable microenvironment. To provide such a milieu for neurons, extracellular fluids of the CNS are separated from the changeable environment of blood at three major interfaces: at the brain capillaries by the blood-brain barrier (BBB), which is localized at the level of the endothelial cells and separates brain interstitial fluid (ISF) from blood; at the epithelial layer of four choroid plexuses, the blood-cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) barrier (BCSFB), which separates CSF from the CP ISF, and at the arachnoid barrier. The two barriers that represent the largest interface between blood and brain extracellular fluids, the BBB and the BCSFB, prevent the free paracellular diffusion of polar molecules by complex morphological features, including tight junctions (TJs) that interconnect the endothelial and epithelial cells, respectively. The first part of this review focuses on the molecular biology of TJs and adherens junctions in the brain capillary endothelial cells and in the CP epithelial cells. However, normal function of the CNS depends on a constant supply of essential molecules, like glucose and amino acids from the blood, exchange of electrolytes between brain extracellular fluids and blood, as well as on efficient removal of metabolic waste products and excess neurotransmitters from the brain ISF. Therefore, a number of specific transport proteins are expressed in brain capillary endothelial cells and CP epithelial cells that provide transport of nutrients and ions into the CNS and removal of waste products and ions from the CSF. The second part of this review concentrates on the molecular biology of various solute carrier (SLC) transport proteins at those two barriers and underlines differences in their expression between the two barriers. Also, many blood-borne molecules and xenobiotics can diffuse into brain ISF and then into neuronal membranes due to their physicochemical properties. Entry of these compounds could be detrimental for neural transmission and signalling. Thus, BBB and BCSFB express transport proteins that actively restrict entry of lipophilic and amphipathic substances from blood and/or remove those molecules from the brain extracellular fluids. The third part of this review concentrates on the molecular biology of ATP-binding cassette (ABC)-transporters and those SLC transporters that are involved in efflux transport of xenobiotics, their expression at the BBB and BCSFB and differences in expression in the two major blood-brain interfaces. In addition, transport and diffusion of ions by the BBB and CP epithelium are involved in the formation of fluid, the ISF and CSF, respectively, so the last part of this review discusses molecular biology of ion transporters/exchangers and ion channels in the brain endothelial and CP epithelial cells

Phenotypic plasticity masks range-wide genetic differentiation for vegetative but not reproductive traits in a short-lived plant

Genetic differentiation and phenotypic plasticity jointly shape intraspecific trait variation, but their roles differ among traits. In short-lived plants, reproductive traits may be more genetically determined due to their impact on fitness, whereas vegetative traits may show higher plasticity to buffer short-term perturbations. Combining a multi-treatment greenhouse experiment with observational field data throughout the range of a widespread short-lived herb, Plantago lanceolata, we (1) disentangled genetic and plastic responses of functional traits to a set of environmental drivers and (2) assessed how genetic differentiation and plasticity shape observational trait–environment relationships. Reproductive traits showed distinct genetic differentiation that largely determined observational patterns, but only when correcting traits for differences in biomass. Vegetative traits showed higher plasticity and opposite genetic and plastic responses, masking the genetic component underlying field-observed trait variation. Our study suggests that genetic differentiation may be inferred from observational data only for the traits most closely related to fitness

Intraperitoneal drain placement and outcomes after elective colorectal surgery: international matched, prospective, cohort study

Despite current guidelines, intraperitoneal drain placement after elective colorectal surgery remains widespread. Drains were not associated with earlier detection of intraperitoneal collections, but were associated with prolonged hospital stay and increased risk of surgical-site infections.Background Many surgeons routinely place intraperitoneal drains after elective colorectal surgery. However, enhanced recovery after surgery guidelines recommend against their routine use owing to a lack of clear clinical benefit. This study aimed to describe international variation in intraperitoneal drain placement and the safety of this practice. Methods COMPASS (COMPlicAted intra-abdominal collectionS after colorectal Surgery) was a prospective, international, cohort study which enrolled consecutive adults undergoing elective colorectal surgery (February to March 2020). The primary outcome was the rate of intraperitoneal drain placement. Secondary outcomes included: rate and time to diagnosis of postoperative intraperitoneal collections; rate of surgical site infections (SSIs); time to discharge; and 30-day major postoperative complications (Clavien-Dindo grade at least III). After propensity score matching, multivariable logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards regression were used to estimate the independent association of the secondary outcomes with drain placement. Results Overall, 1805 patients from 22 countries were included (798 women, 44.2 per cent; median age 67.0 years). The drain insertion rate was 51.9 per cent (937 patients). After matching, drains were not associated with reduced rates (odds ratio (OR) 1.33, 95 per cent c.i. 0.79 to 2.23; P = 0.287) or earlier detection (hazard ratio (HR) 0.87, 0.33 to 2.31; P = 0.780) of collections. Although not associated with worse major postoperative complications (OR 1.09, 0.68 to 1.75; P = 0.709), drains were associated with delayed hospital discharge (HR 0.58, 0.52 to 0.66; P < 0.001) and an increased risk of SSIs (OR 2.47, 1.50 to 4.05; P < 0.001). Conclusion Intraperitoneal drain placement after elective colorectal surgery is not associated with earlier detection of postoperative collections, but prolongs hospital stay and increases SSI risk

Climate warming disrupts mast seeding and its fitness benefits in European beech

© 2020, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited. Many plants benefit from synchronous year-to-year variation in seed production, called masting. Masting benefits plants because it increases the efficiency of pollination and satiates predators, which reduces seed loss. Here, using a 39-year-long dataset, we show that climate warming over recent decades has increased seed production of European beech but decreased the year-to-year variability of seed production and the reproductive synchrony among individuals. Consequently, the benefit that the plants gained from masting has declined. While climate warming was associated with increased reproductive effort, we demonstrate that less effective pollination and greater losses of seeds to predators offset any benefits to the plants. This shows that an apparently simple benefit of climate warming unravels because of complex ecological interactions. Our results indicate that in masting systems, the main beneficiaries of climate-driven increases in seed production are seed predators, not plants

The predictability of ecological stability in a noisy world

Random environmental variation, or stochasticity, is a key determinant of ecological dynamics. While we have some appreciation of how environmental stochasticity can moderate the variability and persistence of communities, we know little about its implications for the nature and predictability of ecological responses to large perturbations. Here, we show that shifts in the temporal autocorrelation (colour) of environmental noise provoke trade-offs in ecological stability across a wide range of different food-web structures by stabilizing dynamics in some dimensions, while simultaneously destabilizing them in others. Specifically, increasingly positive autocorrelation (reddening) of environmental noise increases resilience by hastening the recovery of food webs following a large perturbation, but reduces their resistance to perturbation and increases their temporal variability (reduces biomass stability). In contrast, all stability dimensions become less predictable, showing increased variability around the mean response, as environmental noise reddens. Moreover, we found environmental reddening to be a considerably more important determinant of stability than intrinsic food-web characteristics. These findings reveal the fundamental and dominant role played by environmental stochasticity in determining the dynamics and stability of ecosystems, and extend our understanding of how the multiple dimensions of stability relate to each other beyond simple white noise environments